dudacek

It's not really about 'the higher the pick, the better the odds' though. Math says that's self-evident. What the math doesn't account for is the actual picks in a very specific sample size: scouts having the foresight to choose Makar at 2, or Suzuki at 8, instead of letting them slip 4 and 13, respectively. Or the odds that you're going to avoid the Cody Glass and Lias Andersson type picks in the top 10. What is doesn't show is that in any given draft, the odds of getting a true difference-maker between 4 and 10 aren't that great and they aren't really a function of where in that range you pick. In the 2010s, these are the "stars" picked in that range: 2010: the best player taken was Jeff Skinner at 8 2011: Zibanejad, Schiefele, Couturier and Hamilton went 6, 7, 8, 9 2012: Morgan Rielly and Hampus Lindholm at 5 and 6 2013: Jones, E. Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, Risto, Horvat and Nichushkin 4-10 2014: Nylander at 8 probably the first actual star taken in that range so far this decade. Next two that year are probably Ehlers at 9 or Bennett at 4. 2015: Marner at 4, Werenski at 8 and Rantanen at 10 were the cream 2016; Tkachuk and Keller at 6-7 were the cream here 2017: with Makar and Pettersson at 4-5 we have our first examples of a team actually benefiting from being at the top of this stretch 2018: Hughes at 7 and Tkachuk at 4 are the studs. 2019: Seider at 6 is the guy and one of only 2 studs taken in the entire top 10. I'm sorry, but historically it's a bit of a dart board. And that doesn't even account for the cultural questions created by a team "trying to lose", particularly one as infested with losing as this one. Nope, learned my lesson. I'll take the wins. even in garbage time.

One problem that doesn’t get talked about a ton is what happens to the logjam that’s developing in the pipeline? In a typical organization, a 21-year-old 1st rounder who put up a point per game in the minors is almost certainly being given a shot to play on the big club next year. Same goes for a 23-year-old 1st-rounder being leaned on as your farm team’s shutdown D. In a typical organization, they’d be plugged in to replace a Zucker type mid-6 UFA winger and a Jokiharju-type bottom-pair UFA blueliner as capfriendly contracts in sheltered roles where they hopefully develop into real contributors. That’s just how the NHL typically works in the cap world. Does anybody actually want Isak Rosen and Ryan Johnson, or players like them on the team next year? How long before those guys stagnate? How long before they - and guys like Levi and Östlund and others - start to chafe behind them because there are just no opportunities for them on a big club that is already too young? The Sabres need to flush the system with a few more Savoie/McLeod trades, and find a Reinhart-for-futures type deal they can be on the right side of. That includes moving young NHLers out of the Peterka/Quinn/Benson/Kulich/Byram/Power/ Samuelsson/UPL group. Time to start behaving like a real NHL team.

The draft just seems so ***** random anyway. #1 Nico Hischier #2 Nolan Patrick #3 Miro Heiskanen #4 Cale Makar #5 Elias Petterson #6 Cody Glass #7 Lias Andersson #8 Casey Mittelstadt #9 Michael Rasmussen #10 Owen Tippett Gabe Villardi, Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris and Robert Thomas all went in the next 10 picks. Mittelstadt is 10th most productive player from that draft. The top 9, in order, were picked: 5, 4, 1, 39, 20, 13, 12, 121 and 3. In 2018, it goes: 7, 4, 2, 1, 10, 12, 14, 141, 3, 49 In 2016, it goes: 1, 6, 39, 7, 162, 2, 3, 66, 35 After what we’ve been through I am surprised anyone around here can still get themselves behind losing for high picks as a strategy.

Streaks are relevant. Seasons are more relevant Body of work is most relevant. It’s true whether you are talking about James Reimer, Jack Quinn or Kevyn Adams. If our decision-makers are basing major decisions mostly on the past 10 games at any point in the season, we’re lost anyway.

He’s got that quietly reliable in his own zone thing going so far, at least by the eye test. Lindy’s run out today’s D pairings in 6 of the past 7. The one time he didn’t Dahlin got sick and that was the one loss. In those 6 games: Dahlin 2 5 7 +7 22:37 Samuelsson 1 4 5 +6 20:26 Power 0 2 2 +1 18:40 Bernard-Docker 1 2 3 +3 14:23 Byram 0 2 2 +6 21:41 Clifton 0 5 5 +6 20:20 (Somebody hide this post from @Thorner 😬) Looks like it would be a mistake to say Docker has elevated Power; they seem to be the 3rd pair. No one should be particularly surprised that Dahlin has elevated Mule, but the success of Byram Clifton is an eyebrow raiser. Fancy stats paint a different story (includes the Philly loss) Dahlin 44.2% Samuelsson 34.9% Power 44.6% Bernard Docker 40.3% Byram 42.6% Clifton 40.8% All of these guys are below their SAT rates for their year during this hot streak.

Curious how often the top 2 lines were out against the Point line. I remember them pinning the McLeod line in the zone but I don’t know if that matchup was something that was out there consistently. Lindy seems to be rolling out the current line mix with the idea they’ll lose the battle to the opponents top line and win on the next two. Entertaining game.

I’m not talking about the pathetic current run of the Buffalo Sabres. Never brought them up. I’m talking about the Boston Bruins and their ability in my lifetime to avoid the types of down periods that have afflicted most other franchises.

Not sure how you are defining this, but I’m looking at it as “extended periods of mostly missing the playoffs.” And in terms of that definition Boston has been an outlier. In our division alone: Florida: missed 16 of 18 prior to 2019 Toronto: 9 of 10 prior to 2016 Montreal: 6 of the past 9 (though they did have a COVID miracle run in there) Ottawa: about to change after 7 straight misses Detroit: 8 seasons and counting Tampa 5 of 6 prior to 2014 The last time the Bruins missed more the twice in a row was the early ‘60s.

I'm actually kinda fascinated about this. They are largely bereft of both prospects and young players with upside. H. Lindholm, McAvoy, Zadorov, Pastrnak, Zacha, and E Lindholm are all good NHL players; do they add around them or use them to fuel a reset? How? On paper, it's easier to see this roster bottoming out than climbing back into contention. But the Bruins mystique has taught us to believe they wont be down for long. Really curious to see if the mystique is real or just a factor of the enduring power of the 2011 core.

Further to the injury discussion: At the trade deadline the Sabres invested nearly $17M in 3 forwards for next year: Norris, Greenway and Zucker. They have combined for 21 of a possible 39 games since. The have also combined for 2 goals and 5 assists and a -7. Lucky we don't believe in paces from small sample sizes any more.

Too soon because...? 2022 draft 11 Conor Geekie 49 games played 12 Denton Mateychuk 37 13 Frank Nazar 49 14 Rutger McGroarty 5 15 Jonathan Lekkerimaki 23 16 Noah Östlund 0 17 Joakim Kemmel 2 18 Lian Bichsel 32 19 Liam Ohgren 28 20 Ivan Misochenchenko 39 First round picks are usually getting a taste of the NHL in their D3 year. Östlund is literally one of 6 in his class who have not. For the record, I would like to see him on one of the top lines with Kulich sliding out of the top 9.

Leone (to Duff and Marty) is of the opinion Östlund has a skill set that allows him to slot in on any style of line. Called him a bit of a unicorn that way. He has the energy, fearlessness and defensive acumen to play effectively with Lafferty and Malenstyn.

To be clear, this isn’t really a “look” or a “reward”. This is more a “our 2C and our 6C are hurt and our best centre is playing wing to support the look we’re already giving our best centre prospect, who’s next man up?”

One would think that finding playmaking winger or two to take advantage of the way Tage, Kulich and Norris can shoot (and Quinn, Peterka and Tuch for that matter) should be an off-season focus. I mean I guess I number of those guys can also pass, and that's also the hope for Benson, but its certainly skewed. I'm again struck by what a perfect fit Mitch Marner would be be in the off-season.

In a season full of down notes, stuff like this is fun to see. Östlund has definitely filled out since he got on stage on draft day looking like he was ready to apply for his learner's permit.

I would imagine this is because whatever happened to Kozak last game is still an issue. I would hope he's not plugged in to Kozak's spot in the lineup, but that has been the case with Rosen's callups. Subbing him for Krebs between Tuch and Zucker would be the best thing for him, but I'm not sure that's the best thing for the team, given the way Krebs has played.

That's a bit misleading. 24 is definitely a young goalie. UPL is 26 and he is still a young goalie. There are only 4 goalies 26 and younger to have played 40 NHL games this year: Wolf, Dostal, Kochetkov and Ersson. Wolf is the only one to do so at 24.

My perception of the sabres relative to other teams is that they score a higher percentage of their goals by 'snipes'. They aren't a high-volume 'shoot from everywhere 'team, or a 'crash the net for rebounds and deflections' team. They are a 'find some open space from 30 feet and beat the goalie' team. And because they have guys like Tage and JJ moving and shooting the puck, they're relatively successful at scoring goals that way. I don't know how "attacking styles" affects xgf numbers, but they must.

Sorry for the clickbait thread title, but @Stoner has poked holes in his super fan status several times since he bought the team. According to a new Athletic article, this is why he switched: Tim Graham with an Athletic piece on the song's 50th anniversary: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6243478/2025/04/03/terry-pegula-sabres-bills-song/ Nostalgic read for Sabres history buffs.

Article in the Athletic on how many NHL people are expecting this to be a summer of offer sheets. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6250562/2025/04/03/nhl-free-agency-offer-sheets-offseason/ It contains this snippet: Peterka will draw lots of trade interest this offseason if the Sabres can’t get a new contract finalized. And if he’s not re-signed by July 1, there’s no doubt he would be an enticing offer-sheet candidate. Allan Walsh happens to be his agent, but out of respect for the Sabres, his client and the process, he wouldn’t comment specifically about that situation. “But I have talked to general managers generally about offer sheets this summer, and some general managers have said to me — one in particular (said), ‘My goal this summer is to do an offer sheet,’” Walsh said. The only question to me here is whether JJ is legitimately interested in moving on, or this is just his agent setting the table for Adams to overpay the man.

So much this. What is fundamentally wrong with building a roster next year that should have no room for Jiri Kulich?

Does everyone think we can count on Zucker and McLeod to produce like 2nd-liners next year? On Norris and Greenway to play 70-plus games? On at least 1 of Quinn/Benson/Kulich to graduate to the 50-point-and-a-plus-player plateau? All at the same time? Substitute a 60-point 2C Cozens for Norris and isn’t that pretty much what Adams did this year?

The issue with the forwards is not about the talent, it’s about the composition. It’s not about the ceilings of Kulich, Benson and Quinn, it’s about having all of them in your top 6 at this point in their careers at the same time. Its about applying the same thought process behind the McLeod trade to this roster a few more times. Fingers crossed Norris qualifies. Its the Herb Brooks thing: I’m not looking for the best players, I’m looking for the right players.

This is something that the board still hasn’t quite wrapped its collective head around. None of Quinn, Cozens, Benson and Kulich performed like good top 9 performers this year or provided good value for their role. I know I’ll get pushback on this, but generally speaking, their contributions have been roughly on a tier with those of Peyton Krebs. Look at the numbers. We’ve replaced one of them. Sure they’re young enough to get better, but how many of them, and by how much? Are you willing to take that bet? Again? After this year, I can’t fathom the number of Sabrespacers who seem OK with our forwards.

I'm curious where he's going to settle. Hes going to fall back next year; nearly every one does after having this kind of breakout. The question is what will he typically be over the next 5 years? What I've liked most about McLeod is how often I see him covering and supporting on the backcheck: "oh *****, we're going to get caught.. nope, McLeod is there" On this team it's very noticeable. Tuch and Krebs are the only other ones doing that even half as much as McLeod does.