dudacek

My annual summer ranking, post-development camp, based on how good an NHL player they should become. 2024/25 could best be described as a mundane year of mild disappointment on the prospect front. While a majority of prospects trudged along safely within the margins of their expected paths, few took big leaps and a number either ran out of runway or are approaching the end of their runs without hitting liftoff. I think the team is entering a real transition period where a lot of similarly ranked prospects are poised to sink or swim in a too-tight cluster. The Sabres graduated Jiri Kulich and cut ties with Matt Savoie, Lukas Rousek, Aleksandr Kisakov, Ethan Miedema, and Viljami Marjala from last year’s list. Last year’s ranks are in parentheses. Should be NHLers, could be really good: (Levi) 1 Devon Levi (1): Levi’s playoff run for Rochester was probably a microcosm for where he is at in his development curve: his overall numbers were very good, and there were games were he looked unbeatable. But there were also games where the eye test said ‘this guy is not ready yet for the NHL. From a technical aspect, the athleticism remains outstanding; this is a goalie who can make the big save. But sometimes pucks get through him that should not. The skill is there, the mental focus is there, the numbers are there. What still needs to come is the experience that will give him the comfort level of knowing that when things go wrong within games and within seasons the key is to relax and stay within himself. I think Levi expected to be in the NHL by now and that has weighed on him; it’s a type of adversity he has yet to deal with in his young life. Psychologically, starting in Rochester this October, and earning his way up feels like the right path. I expect to see him at some point this year and be a fixture next year. His upside remains high. 2 Radim Mrtka (NR): I think Sabres fans got a bit of a wrong impression of Mrtka. They heard he was big but not mean. They heard he lacked high-end offence. And in their minds they put him in a bucket that said “low-upside Owen Power without the points” and called him safe and vanilla. But while he could hurt people more and he could score more, this guy is anything but safe. This guy’s ceiling is very high — first-pairing shutdown high. He’s got that kind of toolbox. The question is how far can he develop those tools. Because he’s not there yet. He is a rare physical specimen with the feet, length and compete to defend at a very high level, and he’s not without skill (he led the WHL in p/g for his draft year). But he is very raw and there is a lot of work to do in terms of decision-making and details. This is a motivated low-floor, high-ceiling development prospect. Development camp comparisons were made to Tyler Myers, and they’re probably apt in terms of where Mrtka eventually settles. Tyler Myers has played 16 years in the NHL, mostly as a top 4 D. That’s an excellent return from a #9 pick. But he’s 3 years away. Should be NHL regulars: (Helenius, Kulich, Savoie, Östlund) 3 Konsta Helenius (2) Jumping up a league from Finland to the AHL and posting pretty much the identical statistics at the higher level is a pretty good indication that Helenius is right on track in his development. He was the youngest player in the AHL and sometimes it showed, but the 18-year-old demonstrated he was not going to be pushed around by the men of North American hockey and by the time the playoffs rolled around, he was pushing first. His point totals were the 3rd best by a U19 AHL player this century, but that should be read in the context of how few players play a full AHL season at his age. He played more wing than centre as his coaches tried to smooth his adjustment. The team will be looking to see if he can make a step next year from complementary player to part of Rochester’s core. He ticks a lot of NHL boxes and has a lot of runway in front of him. He’s at least a year away, probably 2. 4 Noah Östlund (5): After a bad hand contributed to a poor start, Östlund provided proof of his high draft pedigree by reeling off a 35-point, +19 run in just 32 games to earn a call-up from Rochester. I’m more interested in what he learned after the call-up. He could skate with NHLers and avoided getting caved. But in terms of making plays he showed he still has a ways to go. Couple that with an AHL playoff — where he again played OK but struggled to produce — and he should be spending the off-season with a clear focus on what he has to do to improve. And a lot of that is about strength. Östlund is probably behind Rosen and ahead of Helenius in terms of who will be the first offensive forward called up. He will be leaned on to be the Amerk 1C this year, much like Kulich was in his 2nd pro season. He’s a year away from a legitimate shot at making the big club. Could be NHL regulars: (Wahlberg, Rosen, Novikov, Johnson, Komarov, Strbak) 5 Prokhor Poltapov (14): First the good news: there was no one in the organization who took a bigger leap last year than Poltapov. After disappointing D+2 season, the young left winger vaulted himself up off the CSKA 4th line to become the KHL team’s second-leading scorer while retaining all the grit and lineup versatility that could allow him to make an NHL impact in multiple different roles. The bad news is he also signed a contract extension and is not expected to show up in Buffalo any time soon. In the summer of 2027 he will be free again to sign with the Sabres (and no other NHL team), but also old enough that he will be able to leverage (and maybe earn) himself a promise to bypass Rochester entirely and join the Sabres directly as a 24-year-old. The Sabres apparently are still in contact with him and consider him part of their future. 6 Maxim Strbak (11): The Slovak got picked in the high second round because he’s right-handed shot with a prototypical NHL 2nd-pairing skillset: size, skating, leadership and the ability to perform on both sides of the puck. His performance this year in Michigan State did nothing but reinforce that perception. After a somewhat uneven freshman year, Strbak took a much bigger role on a very good team, putting up good numbers playing first pairing minutes. He’ll return to college this fall and probably sign next spring. He’ll need a year or two in Rochester before making the leap. Has a shot: (Kleber, Neuchev, Poltapov, Zeimer, Rousek) 7 Ryan Johnson (9): It might look like Johnson has climbed this list, but I wouldn’t really read too much into that; the separation between 7 and 14 is not significant. Johnson is where he is because he is the closest person on this tier to being an NHL regular right now. Johnson had a nondescript but solid AHL season and has the makings of a nondescript but solid NHL defensemen. He’s got NHL feet and the ability to quietly snuff plays and flip the puck up-ice as a mobile defensive defenceman, and was effective being leaned on in that role for the Amerks. The NHL roster is set up so the only thing standing in his way is the placeholder named Jacob Bryson. I expect at some point during this season he will make Bryson redundant and should get his first legitimate full-time NHL role next year, if injuries or trades don’t create that opportunity for him sooner. I’d say it’s 50/50 as to whether he is able to take advantage and turn the NHL into a full-time gig. 8 Nikita Novikov (8): When I watch Rochester, Novikov consistently catches my eye because he plays hockey like a man. You want to mess with his teammates, he objects. You want to get to the front of his net, he objects. You want to move pucks out of his corner, he objects. He’s physical, consistently focused and constantly engaged, while being smart and not prone to making a lot of mistakes. He’s led the Amerks in +/- on each of his two pro seasons. I like pretty much everything about Nikita except his feet; I’m just not sure they will translate to the NHL level. Like Johnson, he’s paid his dues and is getting close to earning his shot. We may see some spot duty this year, especially if they feel the need to add some iron to their backline. 9 Brodie Ziemer (15): The third round hasn’t exactly been kind to the Sabres over the years, but Zeimer has a decent chance of breaking a drought that dates all the way back to Brayden McNabb in 2008. He’s one of those players who doesn’t have any particular elite traits, but he does most things well. He is a self-starter and a leader who makes the most of what he’s got. He flirted with a top 6 role as a true freshman on a good Minnesota team, putting up solid numbers as the Gophers only 18-year-old regular and posted a point a game for the gold-medal US WJC squad. He’s 3 or 4 years away, but he gets it, and I like his chances as middle-six team guy. 10 Anton Wahlberg (6): If there was one prospect who disappointed me most this year, it was probably Wahlberg. The understated puck skills and the bull-strength he flashed in his D+1 year just weren’t on display enough in Rochester. He came across as kinda uncertain and tentative in his play; I didn’t see him using his big body and I didn’t see the hand skills or the hockey sense. His numbers — roughly a 40-point pace — were fine given his age though. His physical gifts are obvious and he just turned 20 last week, so there is lots of runway left. This is a ranking he can easily flip next year. 11 Adam Kleber (12): The fact that Kleber was a 3rd-pairing defenceman on a weaker college team last year who managed just 5 points isn’t going to get anyone excited. But there aren’t a lot of 18-year-olds playing bigger roles in the NCAA. And Kleber is never going to be someone who puts up points. He’s a giant of a young man and his role is to make life rough on opposing forwards, something he has been able to do quite well against his peers. He joined Zeimer on the US WJC squad, where he played that role quite successfully. He’s a good 4 years from any NHL games but his physical tools could get him there. Two things he has over Novikov are better feet, and better retrievals, which might make the difference in carving out an NHL career. 12 Tyson Kozak (20): I like Kozak and respect the no-cheat way he plays the game. I also consider him to be one of the more overrated prospects in the system. This is a guy who has yet to play 55 games or score 15 points in a professional season in three tries. There’s nothing really in his resume that suggests he can be an NHL player, other than the fact he played 21 games this year and did not look totally out of place as a 4th-line centre. The fanbase almost universally seems comfortable pencilling him in on the open day roster. I don’t see it; not with Justin Danforth and Peyton Krebs able to do pretty much everything Kozak can do, and more, better. What’s he’s got though is the trust of his coaches, which does mean something, and the desire to get better. He is the type who, given the opportunity, might seize it and run. He’s not big, he’s not fast and he’s not skilled. But he is smart and he does compete. Maybe that will be enough. 13 Isak Rosen (7): He can shoot kinda like JJ Peterka. He can skate kinda like JJ Peterka. He’s probably already more defensively aware and responsible than JJ Peterka. In some world, maybe this one, a case could be made that Rosen might slide smoothly into the roster spot Peterka fled and pop 20 goals as an NHL rookie. He’s shown steady improvement over each of his 3 professional seasons in Rochester, capped by this year where he scored at a near 40-goal pace and led the team in points. He’s at the point in his NHL career where he should be ready to follow his good buddy Kulich into the show. The thing is, I just don’t see it happening. Because as talented as Rosen is, he’s anything but an alpha in an organization with no room for soft, deferential skilled forwards. He’s got the skill to be an NHer, but I just don’t see the will, or the opportunity. I think he’s poised to peak this season as a tweener. I expect he will be with another organization next year and back in Europe shortly after. 14 Vsevolod Komarov (10): For the most part Komarov was Rochester’s #6D last year. Which shouldn’t have been unexpected given he was a rookie on a deep blue line. And it isn’t as bad as it might seem given that Leone played everybody. Komarov plays a hard, fearless game. He attacks on defence and he attacks on offence. He’s big and he’s not without skill although his skating stride is awkward and his puck touches aren’t entirely clean. The reason I have him at the bottom of this tight cluster of Sabres prospects is that it is kinda hard to slot him in to a specific NHL role. He’s not really a meaty crease-clearing #6, or a mobile safety valve #5, or someone who is going to play on an NHL PP. But he does have competence in a lot of areas and a great attitude that may carry him past his limitations. Longshot with a shot: (Ratzlaff, McCarthy, Kisakov, Kozak) 15 Scott Ratzlaff (17): Goalies have a long runway and a lot of obstacles to leap before anyone can be entirely comfortable projecting them into an NHL crease. But within that context, Ratzlaff has a shot. The fifth-round pick has stopped a lot pucks over his junior career, first as a tandem goalie on a Seattle contender in his draft year, then as the main guy for a struggling rebuild in his D+1, and finally as the focal point of a T-Bird revival this season. Not particularly large for a goalie, Ratzlaff is a fast-twitch athlete with quick reflexes and an upbeat leader’s attitude. He’s earned a contract and a chance to battle Topias Leinonen for the backup position in Rochester this year. 16 David Bedkowsi (NR): Anyone who watched Bedkowski’s post-draft interview should have come away impressed with his thoughtful, mature approach. But the thing that will make him a favoured son on this list for years to come is the scouting report from Elite Prospects: “Arguably the most violent player in the class, with the mobility, reach, defensive traits, and bloodlust to develop into a tremendous play killer.” Bedkowski brings almost no offence, but he can skate and he can play without the puck, and he is a giant human being. He’s 5 years away, but will be warmly welcomed when he arrives. 17 Jake Richard (HM): A slow-cooking late 2022 pick, Richard may have been the best development story in the organization. After nearly doubling his scoring totals in his 2nd USHL season, he did it again this year in his second season at UConn going from 18 points as a freshman to 43 as a sophomore, making his living at the net front. He’s practically moved into Buffalo in the off-season to take advantage of the Sabres training facilities and will probably sign his first pro contract in the fall and spend a year or two in Rochester trying to follow in the late-round footsteps of Victor Olofsson. 18 Viktor Neuchev (13): A skilled Russian winger, Neuchev earned rave reviews from his coach Vinnie Prospal this year for the way he had thrown himself into the task of becoming a complete player while increasing his scoring. His mission was cut short however by a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. He’s got more skill than your average third-rounder but he’s still learning how to play the North American pro game. It will be interesting to see how that affects him as he battles for prime ice time with Rochester’s thick group of young forwards. 19 Gavin McCarthy (18): Drafted a round after Strbak, McCarthy carries a similar skillset, plays a similar two-way game and showed a similar level of improvement. He also remains a round behind him in terms of his NHL projection. Whereas Strbak is little more polished, McCarthy is more of a gung ho, high-risk/reward type. He skates well and isn’t shy of the rough stuff and definitely seems headed toward an NHL contract, maybe after this season. 20 Luke Osburn (NR: You make a lot of picks in the later rounds hoping that at least a few them surprise and push themselves into a legitimate prospects status. Osburn was that guy this year. A very young, smooth-skating puck mover, he broke out with 41 points in 55 games and was named the USHL defenceman of the year. He’s off to Wisconsin next year to see if he can continue to build on that great year, but is at least 2 or 3 years away from turning pro. Honourable mentions: (Marjala, Richard) 21 Topias Leinonen (NR): After 2 bad post-draft years led me to write him off this list completely, Leinonen stopped the slide last year with a solid season in the Swedish second division. Fuelled in part by injuries and adversity, he dedicated himself to fitness, pulled his career out of the dumpster and earned himself a pro contract. An absolutely massive human being, he’s slotted to share time with Ratzlaff between backing up Levi in Rochester and taking a lead role in the ECHL. 22 Ryerson Leenders (NR): Another young athletic goalie with average size like Ratzlaff (and the two goalies picked this June), Leenders followed up a solid draft year in Mississauga with a similar season in Brantford where he complied an impressive winning record. Another year of the same might earn him a contract with a space opening due to the the expected graduation of Levi.

This is absolutely true. It's also true that most teams aren't running a Sam Bennett in the 2C slot. These were some of McLeod's peers points-wise: Marco Rossi, Morgan Geekie, Brock Nelson, Sean Monahan, Adam Fantili Mason Mctavish, Chandler Stevenson, Evgeni Malkin, Dylkan Cozens, Pius Suter, Barrett Hayton. Most of these guys also had to get the minutes and get points. He doesn't seem to be grossly outclassed.

This is the most blue sky thinking ever, but the concept of Quinn and the concept of Doan flanking a levelled-up version of the Krebs we saw this year would such a great mix of skillsets against most bottom 6 lines.

Agree, except with the Rust might come cheap part. There are so few top 6 options available and so many teams with cap sapce, the price is going to be high.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Lindy use a base like he did 20 years ago: Thompson is his Briere, Tuch his Drury. Each anchors a complete, 2-way line he is comfortable icing against an opponents best line, something he didn’t have when he kept running out Cozens, Peterka and Quinn in his top 6 for the first half of last year. Theoretically, a Tuch/McLeod duo is going to be winning a lot of their matchups. Add Greenway as the Grier if you want to lean defence, Zucker as the Kotalik for offence. Benson seems ideal as the Hecht to Tage’s Briere. @mjd1001 says Kulich works as their centre. I’d feel more comfortable with Norris as more high-end option, but if he’s right about Jiri all the better. Then you can shelter Quinn on a unit as your Vanek, with Doan as his forechecker and defensive conscience. Krebs and Danforth can anchor a pesky energy line with whoever isn’t with Tuch, or be reliable plug-ins where needed. Malenstyn’s the spare.

I think fans generally lock themselves into a hierarchy-style lineup where you need to have a certain level of talent to qualify on a certain slot on the depth chart and play with other players of similar stature. Which is ridiculous of course. Coaches employ lines to play roles and those lines change game to game and shift to shift based on a multitude of factors. The last time the Sabres were good, the “3rd line centre” was 5th among forwards in ice time and the “1st line RW” was 7th. The “3RW” led the team in scoring. The previous good team the “3rd line centre” led the team in ice time.

Certainly it’s something I’m guilty of. But even allowing for the presence of that bias, how comfortable should we be slotting in McLeod as a 2C given his track record? Which is essentially one season. (For those wondering, McLeod’s production last season slides him inside the NHL top 50 for points production among centres. Coupled with his superior defensive results, that makes him unequivocally a legitimate 2C last year)

McLeod’s ice time late had a lot to do with Dylan Cozens being traded and Josh Norris being hurt. He may not have centred “the 1st line” but he was certainly the de facto 1C. He won’t be that as long as Norris is in the lineup and his ice time will decrease accordingly. However, unless Kulich takes a big step or Lindy changes his mind about Tage on the wing, McLeod will be the Sabres 2nd best centre. And he will get 2C ice time, regardless of what label Sabrespace puts on his line.

The other thing with Kesselring is that he is a late bloomer entering his 3rd NHL season and just coming into his own. You can’t count on a bunch of individual players getting better the way Adams has, but history teaches us that generally, careers take certain paths and players of Kesselring’s age and experience (and Power’s and Byram’s) are likely to get better.

I’m tired of crossing my fingers for players, but that’s been the Sabre way for 5 years now. To my eyes there’s a fair amount of potential upside on this roster. But there is an equal amount of downside, and only three players (Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin) that I’m reasonably comfortable that I know what I’m going to get. Sometimes, for some teams, the dice rolls the right way, like it did for Montreal last year and Vancouver 2 years ago. Never does for us. And it would be nice to stop depending on dice.

I disagree. Minor point: Appert was new to the NHL staff and it was neither clear how much his Amerks system had in common with Granato’s Sabres system, nor how much influence he had on Ruff’s system last season. More importantly, this was Ruff’s system, not Granato’s. I’ll defer to better systems minds than mine as to what the differences were, but there were differences, and it was reported that there was pushback from the players about those differences, particularly when things started falling apart in the fall. To my eyes, Bo Byram’s play notably elevated from what we saw at the end of the previous season, largely because the Ruff system had much more in common with the Colorado system he was used to. Meanwhile, his teammates on the blueline (with the exception of Dahlin) notably regressed to my eyes. Clifton’s drop-off was precipitous largely due to terrible reads. Power was visibly thinking instead of acting on a consistent basis. Samuelsson never looked comfortable. Luukkonen started guessing and overplaying things because he could no longer trust what his defencemen would do. Similarly, other players who played well under Ruff - I’m thinking specifically McLeod, Tuch, Zucker - were guys with a lot of games played outside Granato. Add in the defensive struggles of Quinn, Cozens and Peterka - all of whom had almost exclusively played a go-for-broke style under Granato for their NHL careers - and I think all the signs were there of an out-of-sync collection of players. To my eye, the team looked poorly coached. Personally, I never thought Granato was a terrible coach, and I do wonder whether the game has passed Lindy by. But I don’t think either man is completely incompetent. I think there was a concerted effort to change the way the team played that resulted in rough transition for a number of players, and eventually coach-driven changes to a roster that seems to have been a poor match to what the coach wanted to do. Theoretically, the learning curve should be over and the roster changes should result in a better fit. Neither are things we can count on though, especially when the quality of the roster, and the coaching staff remain questionable.

Some other notes: Jack Quinn: 30-goal top 6 winger or 35-point defensive liability? Josh Norris: 35-goal scorer or broken body waste of a roster space? Jordan Greenway: textbook big-body 3rd-line checker or broken body waste of a roster space? Mattias Samuelsson: capable #4/5 or broken body, broken spirit waste of a roster space? Michael Kesselring: emerging 2-way horse and missing piece on the blueline or serviceable 2-way #4/5? Josh Doan: hard-to-play against 20/20 grinder+ or Beck Malenstyn 2.0? Peyton Krebs: disposable JAG or emerging 2-way 3C? Ukka-Pekko Luukkonen: disposable JAG or legit NHL starter? I'm curious if any of these "roster filler" pieces have anything more to give.

Pure rental at least from the Sabres perspective and the Sabres have to be open to that. His skillset is exactly the missing piece up front: playmaking first-line winger; he’d save the PP and turn Norris into a 40-goal scorer. The cap hit and the NMC would be tough obstacles to overcome. Wonder what the relationship with Jarmo is like?

Owen Power had a rough season. I'm not entirely sure why, but I suspect the contract and the coaching change each played a role. He will be better this year, and probably a lot better because he's very gifted and very young, and that's what gifted young defencemen do. A lot of you probably won't notice right away because what you hate most about him isn't going to change.

Not seeing that myself, other than Montreal. Other than that, this was the summer of shuffling deck chairs.

There are a lot of teams with the cap space left for Rust and Rakell, and not many other choices of that caliber on the market available for futures. Adding either would elevate my hope meter, but I have a strong suspicion demand will escalate the price beyond anything Adams will be willing to pay.

It would have been such a small thing to just not sign Bryson and use that money to sign Gilbert or a reasonable facsimile.

I kinda look at the revised depth chart as this: Dahlin -> Dahlin Byram -> Byram Power -> Power Samuelsson -> Kesselring Jokiharju/Docker -> Samuelsson Clifton -> Timmins Bryson -> Bryson Clague -> Jones Johnson -> Johnson Novikov -> Novikov Hopefully the prospects at the bottom can push their way up into the call-up mix, but they won’t start there. Kesselring makes them better, but “good” still rests a lot on what version they get of Power and Mule.

And apparently he never will be.

Big hockey news in my corner of the world. We got him. We got Matt Irwin: https://www.vicnews.com/sports/hometown-hire-victorias-matt-irwin-signs-on-with-grizzlies-staff-8115790

The NHL measurement of hits, giveaways and takeaways is a great arbitrary mystery to me. Love to see an explanation of how they are defined, tracked and verified.

If this is what’s going on, why the charade of arbitration? Why not just take one of the futures assets deals already offered? Also, why trade Cozens for an even bigger contract just a few months ago? The Norris deal pays near $2.5M more in actual salary this year and will cost Terry about $7M more in real money over the duration.

Greenway?

Maybe you have a better handle on it than me, but I’m kinda looking at Byram 8 Timmins 2 as a worst-case scenario. Once I read that injuries can be used as evidence in the hearing, that popped a pretty big hole in either arbitration case for me. And we’re talking guys with career highs of 39 and 15 points. Now that may change if either signs for term. Do you see that as a possibility with Byram?

There is not a lot of things to feel good about right now as a Sabres fan. Could this be one? Power 6’6 226 Kesselring 6’5 215 Samuelsson 6’4 227 Timmins 6’3 213 Dahlin 6’3 204 Byram 6’1 205 These guys range from pretty good to elite in their skating ability. No one is small. No one is slow. Five of them had enough skill to be picked in the top 32 picks of the NHL draft, 3 were the first defencemen taken, 1 is a top 4 defenceman in the league and the best to ever wear blue and gold. All of them are young enough to say that their best hockey is ahead of them. All of them are old enough to say that they’ve been around the block a few times. They’ve got balance and flexibility in terms of where they slot, utility and skill sets. They all have reasons to be highly motivated. On paper, the pieces seem to fit. It’s been so long since we’ve had a good defence corps I probably forget what one looks like. But can this be it? Can we actually have something good? Or are Lindy Ruff and Marty Wilford going to drive these guys into Lake Erie?