dudacek

Well, we may have lost Eddie today, but we still have Angus. This one goes out to Jack Quinn

I waited a few hours looking forward to this thread and it didn’t disappoint. It was far more restrained than I thought it would be. Kudos to LGR for some great, informed posting. This Brawndo post captures exactly what the pick should have felt like to informed fans. This is the type of misinformation and Ill-informed rage I expected to see much more of. This is entirely fair in the first paragraph and entirely wrong in the second. I suspect Taro’s views will change when he gets a better grasp of the raw stats and the circumstances. I am not clear about how this spits in the face of what they said they were doing. It is clearly the product of what they were doing. Occam’s razor suggests you didn’t understand what they were doing. (And how many of you have insight into the analytics the Sabres applied here.) As others have pointed out, calling Quinn a one-dimensional goal scorer shows a complete lack of knowledge of the player. I always thought it was weird that Quinn would get handwaved as being old and playing on a good team but we never heard those things about Rossi, who plays on the same team and is almost exactly the same age. I also thought it was weird that people would talk about his goals being padded by the PP when he was the best even-strength goal scorer in the draft. But what really intrigued me was that he was potentially the best goal scorer In the draft but was also a top PKer And a good forechecker and a defensively responsible matchup guy. And he was a hard working character kid who could skate and his size was fine. The best goal scorers usually have multiple red flags we are asked to overlook because of their scoring. I pulled the Mark Stone card myself on this board. This was delightful to me because Quinn was my crush for the draft, the guy I thought deserved to be picked higher than where the charts were slotting him. I talked myself into being fine with Holtz or Lundell or Sanderson because they seemed to be worthy of the pick, but Quinn was the guy I really liked out of the guys I thought we might be picking from. But there were two guys I also really liked In this draft that I didn’t think were going to be available. And then the draft fell and Perfetti and Rossi were both there for the taking. My reading of the Sabres pre-draft was that Rossi was their guy; I was so convinced that when Adams said Ottawa my head nod started then vanished into a “wait, what?” So I got a player I really liked and wanted who I think will be a similar, but better Sabre than Jason Pominville. And I missed out on the most competitive (Rossi) and the most intelligent (Perfetti) skilled players in the draft. It’s possible Quinn’s mix of skill and compete will elevate him above the other two, but that’s not how I saw it. The Sabres “informed dreaming” process thought otherwise. Like every other draft, we will find out in five years.

What does this mean?

Is there anyone here is not hoping for Rossi? (I;d like to point out that when the Sabres agree with Sabrespace we get guys like Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin)

Proof Yzerman was tampering with McDavid?

Last year, didn't they have Cozens at 5 and were focused on Zegras at 7 before Yzerman surprised everyone with the Seider pick?

I think that's a good read. And it fits with that intel from a few weeks back that Adams wasn't thrilled with the guys around 8. Maybe they have a tier drop before 8 and those two are in their top tier and they didn't expect them to be there at 8. Now one might be. Also fits with the idea of Quinn being their favourite among the guys they think actually will be there.

Vinnie Hinostroza, Dom Simon, apparently two examples of the types of guys who will suddenly become available for your bottom for six for pennies on the dollar because they won't be qualified.

I really think the Sabres might be picking Rossi if they were picking third.

Or draft day fun.

Consensus gives us a false sense of where players are. Team by team the lists are very different. There are probably teams that have Sanderson at 5 and Holtz at 15 and vice versa and the discrepancies get bigger the farther down you go.

‘82 In the Pacific Coliseum, ‘86 at BC Place and ‘96(?) at GM Place. Throat cancer?

I think it will unfold very much like this. One of the D could also go 4/5, which might push one of Raymond/Perfetti down as well. But if Rossi gets by Ottawa, I think he's ours. If not, it's likely our choice of Lundell, Quinn, Hotlz or a defenceman.

It's an interesting test of the revised Sabres evaluation process, where they are supposed to be delving into the analytics of Quinn's game and determining the 'why' Also, have the Sabres ever drafted a Jack who sucked?

I'm hoping they did it because Adams determined Thompson is a legit middle six winger and paying an extra million for an extra year will prove to be a bargain down the road. Because I want my GM to make good business decisions based on smart hockey evaluations. It's been too long.

And everyone would have been shaking their heads about how Tampa found yet another stud in the third round.

Good

I think that list you showed is fair consensus of the opinions out there, but when you read a little deeper you see Quinn as one of those players that some people include in the 2nd tier of choices and some don't. More or less, he occupies similar space to Sanderson, Holtz, Lundell, Jarvis and Askarov in the 8-14 range behind Drysdale, Perfetti, Rossi and Raymond, after the big three. I think anyone in that tier is a legitimate consideration at 8. It's if you drop down below that tier that's when you really start talking reaches.

I was talking about the Chad D quote that said expect Quinn if Rossi isn't there, which was later clarified to add Raymond and Perfetti. As far as the "reach" part goes, i was responding to your statement that Adams said they wouldn't reach (which I didn't hear). I guess I need clarification about what that means. If they are picking the #6 guy on their board with the 8th pick, is that a reach? Should they not pick the 6th guy on their board because the consensus ranks him 12th? Then why have scouts? Or are you saying that Quinn is actually ranked lower than 8 on the Sabres board, but they are picking him over guys they ranked higher because of reasons?

If it is Quinn, then making Winnipeg or Minny pay a premium for Lundell makes sense. But the thing you are overlooking in this scenario is that Quinn is not a reach — we've been told there are teams that have him in the top 10 and that Ottawa is considering him at 5. They'd be picking him because Rossi and Raymond and Perfetti are gone, and they like him better than Lundell and Holtz and Askarov and the defencemen, which is a perfectly legitimate POV.

Quinn is not a lurker. He plays 200 feet, kills penalties, forechecks, carries the puck, and makes his own success.

The guy is a straight-up hockey player. He's been my dark horse for a while now.

It was Crowe. Here's the exact quote, which I love: “We’re going to want guys that are competitive, have a strong desire to impact the game however it is they do that and are invested in themselves from a development perspective and burn to be hockey players,”

The Holtz to Buffalo (and the Montour not being qualified) chatter is coming primarily from the Buffalo News crowd (old and new) not from league sources. We will soon see but past evidence is Vogl and Harrington aren't that plugged in to the inner workings of the Sabres.

He bet on the player, and really didn't bet much, basically the cap space of one minimum wage player.