dudacek

The top 10 games played by a Sabres bottom-sixer Rob Ray 889 Girgensons 688 Ruff 608 Mair 498 Gaustad 479 May 425 Larsson 392 Varada 376 Kaleta 365 Barnaby 317 HM: Ellis 286 (the Matt Ellis of top 10 bottom-sixers

Guy played 16 years in the KHL. Scored 42 career goals. What the hell were they thinking? I’d love to hear his story.

And speaking of Rousek, he’s the Sabres 14th forward at the moment and will have to clear waivers, but there’s a very good chance he will spend significant time with the Amerks this year.

I’m guilty of underestimating the role Josh Dunne will play this year. He’s a 25-year-old 6’4” 210 pound 2-way centre who hits and plays both special teams. Had a terrible regular season last year - looked like he was injured - but bounced back with an outstanding playoff (7 goals in 14 games) for Cleveland as they went to game 7 of the eastern finals. Had 20 AHL goals 2 years ago and a cup of coffee with Columbus. He fits with the theme of the types of @PerreaultForever type players the Sabres targeted this summer and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get NHL games this year as a 4th-line call-up. He got the Rousek 2-year deal, where year 2 is a 1-way deal, and will make $450K in Rochester this year, so you know they plan to lean on him. From his AHL bio: PRO CAREER: Posted ten penalty minutes and -7 rating in 14 appearances for Columbus (NHL) spanning parts of two seasons from 2020-21 and 2022-23…Tallied 34-24-58 with 124 penalty minutes and -15 rating in 109 appearances for Cleveland (AHL) spanning three seasons from 2020-23…AMATEUR CAREER: Registered 29-26-55 with 70 penalty minutes and +24 rating in 78 appearances for Clarkson (NCAA-ECAC) spanning three seasons from 2018-21…Wore captain’s “C” for Clarkson in 2020-21…Helped Clarkson claim 2018-19 ECAC Championship…Named ECAC’s best defensive forward and named to ECAC Third All-Star Team in 2019-10…Contributed 34-40-74 with 91 penalty minutes and +16 rating in 140 appearances for Green Bay (USHL) spanning parts of four seasons from 2014-18. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=178129

Two players played more than 60 last year for the Amerks, they dressed 43 different players. Of the 15 players who played at least 50, about 1/2 them won’t be back. And there’s a new coach. Player movement is a fact of life in the AHL and predicting the lines would be impossible. This would be my stab at a depth chart: Kulich Rosen Östlund Wahlberg Helenius Neuchev As top prospects likely getting top 9 minutes Murray, Jobst, Dunne, Tullio As key vets likely to get top 9 minutes Kozak, Kisakov, Nadeau As prospects looking to be regulars Slaggert, Warren, Chevaldayoff As depth veterans looking to be regulars I’d put Murray in the 1st line, Jobst line 2, and give Kisakov a shot on line 3 Tulio, Dunne, Kozak would be a PITA 4th line that in practice would probably be line 3. Helenius and Östlund battling for 2C ice time would be fun.

To be fair, there was surprisingly little meltdown around here over the Helenius pick itself. Not none, but it wasn’t intense, repeated, or from a large number of posters. The sweeping “the Sabres need to stop drafting smurfs” stuff remains alive and well.

It’s a list of fan frustration level with the current GM and relies heavily on where the franchise is relative to where the fan base expects it to be, flavoured by how long the GM has been around and his most recent moves. Montreal isn’t highly ranked because of Hughes’ results, they’re highly ranked because they are early in their rebuild, the team was slightly better than expected last year despite serious injury woes, and the fans are very excited about Slavkovsky, Demidov and Hutson becoming stars. Boston is mid-pack because they’ve been a contender for so long without breaking through, Sweeney hasn’t been able to put them over the top. Signs of regression last year are offset by Lindholm and Zadorov. Ottawa probably would have been last a few months ago but firing Dorion and the Ullmark trade started turning the tide. Buffalo was 8th last year because they’d just gone from dead last to 91 points in 2 years and they appeared loaded with breakthrough talent. They would have been right at the bottom in the spring because regression across the board in the wake of 13 years made fans feel absolutely betrayed. Their off-season, particularly Ruff, has helped Adams, but the fan base is very wary, but he’s on a short lease. Fans get that it’s a cycle, it’s where you are in the cycle and how well you can sell the hopium.

Interesting rumour out there that the Habs had the framework of a deal in place at the draft for Trevor Zegras. But they ended up backing out when the draft broke their way with Demidov and Hage and they decided they didn't want too many players of the same type. It's of particular interest to me because: a) it adds credence to the idea that the Ducks and Zegras might have decided it's time to break up (I can see Pat Verbeek not being a fan). b) the purported price tag was blueline prospect Logan Mailloux and the first they used to pick Hage (#21), which seems very much in line with the variations of Wahlberg and a 1st package we've seen from @tom webster and in other places. Trading Zegras without salary coming back would drop the Ducks under the floor. I wonder if the holdup is simply the Ducks figuring out how they're going to bridge the salary gap?

Taking out Greenway sure makes a difference in the hard-to-play-against quotient of that top 9. Adding Farabee feels like adding another Zucker and a step back in the direction of the types of players we've stepped away from this summer. Also, according to the NHLEdge stats, Farabee is not fast.

Agreed. I think the play of Power/Byram/Samuelsson is the key to the coming season. People talk about not making moves to improve the defence this summer. Byram played 18 games for us last year and Samuelsson 41. They can and should be significant upgrades to Johnson and Johnson. Power still has loads of unrealized potential. On the downside, I'm not sure if any of three is ready to deliver on his promise. Tuch is an interesting UFA case that I've been wondering about too. I expect he'll be in high demand if he goes to market and still an important part of this team. Two years is a long time in the NHL, particularly given the state of the Sabres roster. Will the Sabres be a contender? What kind of jumps will Benson, Peterka and Quinn have made, requiring what kind of contracts? How much contribution will Rosen, Wahlberg, Helenius, Östlund, Poltapov etc be capable of? Will Tuch be willing to give us a hometown discount? Too early to really make a call there yet.

Does Farabee in, Zucker/Greenway/Benson out make the Sabres a better team? Particularly in the off-season context of "faster, harder, more accountable"?

Mostly. I think Adams has had several conversations about adding a top six forward and knows the basic parameters of what it will take to close a deal or deals. If circumstances shift enough for either side, or something fresh emerges elsewhere, he won't hesitate to pull the trigger. Another pressure point won't emerge until training camp approaches. In the meantime, he's assembled a squad that I think he'll be content to start the season with if the deal he wants doesn't materialize.

Best case scenario Thompson — return to form from 2 years ago, flirts with 50 goals and 100 points and is a real gamebreaker Tuch — legit all-situations 1st-line power forward Cozens — legit all-situations high-end 2C Quinn — breakout 30-plus goal, 70-plus point season driving the 2nd line Peterka — takes another step into the 30-goal, 60-point territory, improves his D Zucker — chips in 25, mostly in the top 6 and is a vast improvement over Skinner in terms of accountability and details. Benson — takes a jump into 50-point territory, mostly in a top 6 role with very good 2-way play McLeod — tilts the ice in favour of the third-line, helps the team bring games home while contributing 30 points and firing an improved PK Greenway — similar to McLeod, with the emphasis on size rather than speed Malenstyn — defensive rock and pounding forechecker who shows up every night shuts down opponents and becomes a fan favourite Lafferty — versatile bottom 6 razor blade who defends well and keys a refreshed hard-to-play-against team approach. Aube-Kubel — a bit of Malenstyn and a bit of Lafferty and a reason guys further up the lineup can't take a night off. Krebs — takes a step playing Lindy hockey, and challenges McLeod, Lafferty and Greenway for ice time, fills in positively in multiple roles as a lineup regular Dahlin — has a legitimate Norris trophy-level season Power — augments his size and skill with assertiveness and earns his $8M by starting to take over games Byram — adds considerable speed and fire to the team identity, scores goals and looks like a legitimate top-4 blueliner in all 3 zones Samuelsson — stays healthy and is the shutdown rock we've all seen glimpses of Jokiharju — looks like a veteran in a contract year and very much an asset playing 3rd-pair minutes Clifton — fits well with an edgier team attitude and also provides value playing 3rd-pair minutes Gilbert — adds some snarl and holds his own as a reliable 7th Dman Luukkonen — owns the #1 role and continues the level of play he's shown so far in 2024 Levi — matches Luukkonen save for save as the Swayman to UPL's Ullmark Reimer — provides Craig Anderson level play and presence in a backup role Worst case scenario Thompson — he is again what we saw last year Tuch — a likable 2nd-liner asked to do too much for a bad team Cozens — he is again what we saw last year Quinn — he's more the 35- to 40-point guy he was as a rookie, than the driver we've talked ourselves into projecting Peterka — clashes with Lindy over his defence and regresses Zucker — Father Time takes away his edge and he quickly proves to be a mercenary playing out the string Benson — age, size and increased team depth marginalize his role early, it creeps into his head and he settles into a sophomore slump McLeod — a low-impact fast skater with weak hands and no edge, who quickly becomes a whipping boy for fans talked into expecting more Greenway — pending UFA who earns Lindy's ire for not using his size enough and gets shipped out of town Malenstyn — a hard-working stone-hands replacement-level 4th-line plug who fails to justify the price we paid Lafferty — just another in a long line of 4th-line Sabres JAGs Aube-Kubel — shows himself to be not good enough to be a roster regular, like he has in several other spots; Robinson 2.0 Krebs — fails to take a step under Lindy, fades into the press box and gets moved for peanuts Dahlin — puts too much weight on himself and tries to do too much, resulting in similar point totals but increased errors Power — overcompensates trying to correct the weaknesses in his game, blows it up with too much thinking and regresses Byram — he struggles to carve out a role and find a comfortable partner, tries to do too much and makes too many mistakes Samuelsson — yet again, he can't stay healthy Jokiharju — both he and the coaching staff approach his UFA status as if he's already gone and he becomes an afterthought Clifton — overreacts to Lindy's desire for more direct hockey, hurting the team with too many mistakes and bad penalties Gilbert — is forced to play too much due to issues higher up the roster and proves to be not up to the task Luukkonen — gets off to a slow start and quickly climbs into his own head Levi — starts the season in Rochester, reacts poorly to the situation and fails to step up when he finally gets the call Reimer — he's just collecting his last paycheque and fails both when called on in Buffalo, and as a backstop for the young Amerks All of the above assuming health. I can't recall the last time I've been so uncertain about what so many Sabres will deliver. I mean have strong feelings about where many of these players will land (for example, I think Thompson is being seriously underestimated around here), but the only ones whose track records carry enough weight to give me legitimate confidence in a prediction are Dahlin and Tuch.

I think there is a tendency to overlook the importance of skill when it comes to defending. We all want our D to be physically punishing and to sacrifice their bodies, but the essence of a defenceman’s job is simple: get in the way of the other team. To do that effectively you need to be able to eliminate time and space and your best weapons for doing that are things like lateral mobility, length, and a good quick stick. Without these things you can get by on grit and hockey sense and be Josh Gorges, but you add them to grit and hockey sense and you’re Charlie McAvoy or Victor Hedman. Even without the grit, you can be Nick Lidstrom or Scott Neidermayer. Because you need a high level of skill to be a top defender. All the grit and hockey sense in the world is not going to stop McKinnon or McDavid without the skill to react to the speed at which they play the game. When I Iook at Byram’s elite lateral mobility, or Power’s world-class range, I see tools that could translate to that kind of defender. Byram also has the stick and a level of grit. Power has the hands and the hockey sense. They haven’t shown the discipline (Byram) or the assertiveness (Power) to maximize their gifts in their own zone. But they have the skills to be good defenders. I’m hopeful experience and coaching can evolve that into their games as they mature, the way it has for Dahlin and so many other good young defencemen.

I remember that and I do think there will be a lot of in-game shifting - so much that the starting pairings may not matter much. I think either of those duos would be better #1 pairings than Byram/Dahlin, I just think the other 2 pairings look way better with Byram and Dahlin as the base. Power and Jokiharju have coverage issues in zone, but they handle speed very well and can flip the ice. They won more than they lost as a pair last year. And I quite like the concept of Samuelsson and Clifton in-zone, especially as a way of coping with the pounding forwards like those with Tampa and Florida. I think the mix would challenge any coach, but getting the right players out there is usually a Lindy strength, so I’m with @perreaultforever, it will be interesting to see how their games and roles shift under Lindy.

Any coach - real or internet wannabe - can only play the hand he’s dealt. I think Lindy has a pretty long history of adapting to his personnel so long as they work hard and do what they’re told. Softer puck movers like Numminen, Campbell and Tallinder did just fine. It will be interesting to see how this D core responds.

Yes, I am hoping — actually, expecting — a Dahlin/Byram pairing to get it out quick and spend a lot of time in the o-zone. I don't foresee any pairing with Dahlin on it being a disaster in their own end. He's too good. Last year he was a 55% possession player playing against the other team's best players. Didn't matter who his partner was. The idea that he needs a defensively sound partner to cover for him simply isn't true. He is a #1 D whose presence gives the Sabres a huge advantage in all three zones any time he's on the ice and makes the job of his partner easier. He's the team's best defender. What a Byram/Dahlin pairing does is give Byram the team's best-defending RD to play with, to let him play freely and maximize what he does best. I wouldn't be afraid to use them against other team's top lines, but it would not be their primary task on a game-to-game basis. I described their deployment above. We don't have an extra Jay McKee kicking around; we've got to maximize the abilities of the 6 we have. What do you see as the best way to deploy this group?

I really like the Sabres blue line talent and I think people tend to put too much emphasis on handedness (especially when Dahlin is a proven stud at RHD). But the pieces sure don’t seem to fit together with the ease they do up front. And it gets even more difficult once you begin to factor in the analytics of various pairings and the uncertainty about how Lindy intends to tweak the system and deploy his blueline. I can see it going two ways, depending on whether or not Lindy wants his first pair to function as a shutdown/matchup pair in the way he used Zhitnik/Smehlik way back when. If that’s the case, then I see Samuelsson/Dahlin as that pair with the other 2 pairs being high-risk high-reward r/l groupings. I’d prefer: Byram/Dahlin Power/Jokiharju Samuelsson/Clifton To me, the first pair is all about skill and edge - a go-for-it, identity-creating, dare-the-opponent-to-keep-up unit that gets used in all situations. I see Samuelsson/Clifton getting more work against the banging teams and lines, Power/Jokiharju against the skating teams and lines. Mule and Power would get a lot more ice time than their partners because of special teams and a situational play, with Dahlin/Mule a tool Lindy would use to bring games home.

My starting lines: Benson Thompson Tuch Peterka Cozens Quinn Zucker McLeod Greenway Malenstyn Lafferty Aube-Kubel Nothing too controversial here at all. I think 90% of you will agree with 9 of the 12 slots, with the debate happening over where the top 3 LWs should go. My rationale starts with believing Tuch and Thompson will succeed regardless of their 3rd wheel, and wanting “line2” to be a matchup nightmare for opposing coaches. Quinn is the guy I want driving that line and Peterka is the guy who he has the most chemistry with. I also need Cozens to rebound and the best way to do that is to play him with 2 of the team’s 3 best wingers. This was a good line when JJ and Jack were rookies. With the added experience of all 3, it could be great. I think Lindy starts Zucker on the Thompson line and I can see the logic. He brings some of Skinner’s finishing ability and also his edge (except he brings it at both ends). And he can play with high-end skill; it’s easy to see him connecting with Tage the way he did with Malkin. He shouldn’t hurt them matchup-wise and it’s a way of maximizing his skill set. And I can understand his reluctance to use a 19-year-old the way he’s probably going to use Thompson and Tuch. But I just see so much potential in adding what Benson does well to the Thompson/Tuch combo: he will get them the puck and clean up their leftovers in front of the net while upping the line’s defensive acumen. It would be so Benson to take the opportunity and run with it. And while I think running Benson on line 3 would make for an effective trio in terms of tilting the ice, I prefer Zucker with McLeod and Greenway because he is the only one of the 4 who has shown any real finishing skills. I see three guys with different but complementary skill sets properly slotted where they can be effective: a real 3rd line. The Lafferty line and its role needs no explanation.

Last year’s most frequently used players versus this year’s projection: Tuch 1,463 minutes-> Thompson (1st PP, 1st line) Cozens 1,361 -> Tuch (top 6, both special teams) Peterka 1,344 -> Cozens (top 6, both special teams) Thompson 1,286 -> Quinn (top 6, both special teams) Skinner 1,184 -> Peterka (top 6, PP) Greenway 1,166 -> Benson (middle 6, special teams alternate) Mittelstadt 1,133 -> McLeod (middle 6, PK) Benson 1,031 -> Zucker (middle 6, PP alternate) Krebs 1,000 -> Greenway (middle 6, PK) Okposo 830 ->Malenstyn (bottom 6, PK) Girgensons 747 -> Lafferty (bottom 6) Olofsson 590 -> Aube-Kubel (bottom 6) Jost 456 -> Krebs (next man up) Robinson 440 -> Rousek (first call-up, bottom six) Quinn 422 -> Kulich (first call-up, top 6)

I think people tend to fall into thinking “he’s the 13th forward so he doesn’t fit” when the fact is that the “13th forward” plays a lot, the opening night roster rarely sticks, roles change, injuries happen, and players fall in and out of favour. This time last year we would probably be arguing as to whether or not the 13th forward was Jost or Olofsson. Regardless, that player was already in the starting line-up due to Quinn’s injury. That same injury created an opening for the “14th forward” which Benson seized, and he quickly pushed past those two to become a lineup regular. Meanwhile, disappointing results led Adams to add Robinson into that same mix at the bottom of the roster. Bottom line? The Sabres 12th, 13th and 14th most used forwards last year played 51, 43 and 40 games respectively. And the “14th forward” going in, Benson, actually finished 8th on the team in ice time. In terms of where he fits, Krebs might end up like Jost did, or he might end up like Benson. But your 13th forward is going to get used and how good he is matters.

Definitely. But this is about making it a public talking point. When you are a “91-point and rising team” that puts up 84, people talk about accountability. When you’re a 78-point team that puts up 62, people just talk about how bad you are.

Because last season was the first time in a decade they were in a position for it to matter?

So cautious means he’s not going to trade for core players or trade away the core he’s been developing. Unless he does, but that will mean he doesn’t actually think those players are core?

What does cautious mean to you? If you don’t see risk in trading a 9th overall pick 2 years after picking him, or your leading scorer for an unproven defenceman or a 2nd-rounder for a career minor leaguer, where do you see risk?