dudacek

I mean, other than Norris and Greenway instead of Cozens and Benson it's basically a proven 80-point team, right? So with 72 games of Hasek-level goaltending, sure. 😄 Wait, it's still not official?

Josh Norris is a good player, but that comes with 2 caveats: 1) Kevyn Adams was stretching things considerably when he said Norris can be a first-line centre. 2) @Thorny was not stretching things at all when he consistently points out that questions about Norris' ability have to be leavened with questions about his availability. In 5 NHL seasons he has been health exactly once: his rookie year when he played all 56 games in the bubble. Since then he has missed: 16, 74, 32 and 29 games — or about 46% of his potential starts. Prior to this year, a vast majority of those missed games were due to a chronically bad shoulder, something that did not trouble him this year and the Sabres doctors assure us should not trouble him again. Technically, Norris is capable of centring a 1st line; he has high-end speed, a diligent approach to positioning, makes good and quick decisions with the puck, and has a deadly shot. But he is a 1st-line centre only in the sense that he can keep up with two high-end wingers, as opposed to drive a line in the manner we traditionally think of when we talk about 1C. You may not remember this as well as folks out here on the West Coast, but I think a good comparable is Brendan Morrison when he skated for the Canucks 20 years ago between Markus Naslund and Todd Bertuzzi. And understand he is a finisher, not a playmaker. His career numbers put him at around 30 goals and 22 assists over 80 games. I think your expectations would be best centred at a Derek Roy to Derek Plante level 2C, who can win face-offs and help both special teams. Or maybe this: The Ottawa Senators most certainly watched Dylan Cozens play this year and decided they preferred Cozens to Norris.

Shocking that you would say that. 😉

There’s a large part of me finding it really hard to reconcile the Jack Quinn I watched tear up Rochester 4 years ago, and the Jack Quinn I watched play 27 games coming off an injury 2 years ago with the Jack Quinn I watched last year. They were like 2 completely different players. One part of my brain says: the easiest way to improve the forward ranks is by replacing Quinn with an abrasive defensively responsible player who can pop 20 goals. Another part says sell low on this guy right now and you might seriously regret it for a long time. How can you be that wrong about a player? Which I guess makes me Kevyn Adams 😬😫

That’s certainly fair, and also what I expect. That said if the Sabres wanted to operate in old-school vets-first way, they could, by icing the following top 9: Tuch Norris Thompson Quinn McLeod Peterka Zucker Krebs Greenway Every one of those players save Zucker is in their 23-30 prime. So if Kulich and/or Benson were to break into the top 9, it wouldn’t be because of “no blocking” it would be because of the poor play or injuries of a “veteran”. Quinn, Peterka and Krebs aren’t kids any more, physically, or by experience.

I hope everybody around here realizes that “youth” and “blocking” are no longer talking points with the Sabre forwards. Tage Thompson is turning 28 next season and will be entering his 7th NHL season Zucker 34 and 12 Tuch 29 and 9 Greenway 29 and 8 Norris 26 and 6 McLeod 26 and 5 Krebs 25 and 5 Peterka 24 and 4 Quinn 24 and 4 These guys have been around long enough to know what the league is about. Yes, there are 2 babies also vying to break into the top 9 in Kulich and Benson (and 2 vets in Malenstyn, 28, and Lafferty, 31) but putting them there is a choice, not an excuse. This is group that should be considered largely in its prime. The questions should be are they good enough, and are they balanced enough? “ Are they old enough?” is so 2022.

It’s all about action, not words. The Sabres decided the fitness department and the lack of management trainees needed to be accountable for the lack of results last year.

Yes, I’ll be starting Thursday.

But Jeff Skinner, Kyle Okposo, Matt Moulson, Christian Ehrhoff and Ville Leino all went so well.

Ryan O'Reilly did it a couple years after Bergeron. I may be missing somebody, but I think he, Benson and Cole Sillinger are the only 18-year-olds since Bergeron to play in the NHL full-time in the D+1 year that were not top 10 draft picks. The list of players to score 25 points as an 18-year-old this century doesn't have many players on it who didn't become stars.

I'm really curious if Peterka has another gear. He's turned 23 and cracked the 200-game mark: was this his breakout year? Is he a 30-goal, 65-point top 6 winger, or can he graduate to a 40-goal, point-a-game star? He's young enough and he's skilled enough to take another step but does he have the processor and the will? Personally, I don't think so. But I'm not quite ready to rule it out.

Definitely is relevant.

Another one is Lehner acquired for a 1st, no return. The McNabb deal is a perennial favourite around here. I haven’t completely tracked the Kane deal trade tree, but I don’t think the Sabres have any assets left from that one. Botterill was a disaster at managing assets and Adams squandered a lot of what was left in the Bubble. Yes, the McCabe injury was a stroke of bad luck, and Botterill set him up for failure, but managing to turn Ullmark, McCabe and Montour into exactly nothing is a huge black mark against Adams that no one ever talks about.

This was interesting to look into: Cozens acquired for pick 7, flipped for Josh Norris Skinner acquired for basically a 2nd, no return Jokiharju acquired for Nylander, flipped for a 2026 4th Savoie acquired for pick 9, flipped for McLeod Mittelstadt acquired for pick 8, flipped for Byram Lyubushkin acquired for nothing, flipped for a 2025 4th Erik Johnson acquired for nothing, flipped for Simon-Pierre Brunet and Ryerson Leenders Colin Miller acquired for a 2nd and a 5th, no return Sam Reinhart acquired for 2nd overall pick, flipped for Kulich and Levi Jack Eichel acquired for 2nd overall pick, flipped for Tuch, Krebs, Östlund and Greenway Taylor Hall acquired for nothing, flipped for Bjork and Kisakov Brandon montour acquired for a 1st-rounder (Brayden Tracey) and Brendan Guhle, flipped for Stiven Sardarian Eric Staal acquired for Marcus Johansson, flipped for Riley Stillman and Viljami Marjala Jake McCabe acquired for a 2nd, no return Linus Ullmark acquired for a 6th, no return Connor Sheary acquired for a 4th (Mattias Marcelli) flipped for Dominik Kahun Pominville and Scandella acquired for Foligno and Ennis, flipped for Michael Frolik Ryan O’Rielly acquired for Grigorenko, Zadorov, Compher and Jeremy Roy, flipped effectively for Thompson, Johnson and Colin Miller The most notable thing to me here was the amount of assets frittered away by Botterill and during Adams first year. Eichel, Reinhart, Ullmark, O’Reilly, Montour, McCabe, Foligno, Hall, Johansson, and Miller are all playing in the NHL right now. In exchange the Sabres have Thompson, Tuch, Greenway, Krebs and Kulich.

The market for a player like Bowen Byram is fairly well established in recent years. Chychrun for Jensen and a 3rd Sergachev for Moser, Geekie and a 2nd Byram for Mittlestadt Hronek for a 1st and a 2nd Provorov (and cap space) for Sean Walker, a 1st, a 2nd, Grans Chychrun for a 1st and 2 2nds I think this is a player who had a lot of GMs very interested in him 5 years ago, and who did a ton of work this season to rehabilitate his value. If a 25-point Byram coming off concussion issues can return a 60-point centre, what can a healthy, 40-point, 23-minute-a-night +11 on stinky Buffalo Byram return? I expect the market to be strong: any team lacking a PP QB, or looking to upgrade their skill level on the back end (read most teams) will be very interested. It feels like this is the chip Adams intends to play and one that could generate a good return.

I think Cuylle and Schneider simply do not have Peterka’s upside. Those two for Peterka and cap space is more fair value. Maybe add Clifton and a prospect for Kreider? Miller is the guy the Rangers will be shopping, rather than Schneider. Ive never seen a trade like this, but what do we think of Miller and Schnieder for Samuelsson and Byram?

The player on this list I struggled the most to find comparables for is Mattias Samuelsson. There just aren’t many 25-year-old defensive defencemen with 5 years left at $4.2M period, let alone ones who have been traded. Alex Carrier for Justin Barron Dante Fabbro on waivers Will Borgen (and a 3rd) for Kaapo Kakko Olli Maatta for a 3rd Brian Doumoulin for a 4th None of these guys are perfect matches. The contract in and of itself is actually quite good in this rising cap environment for the entire prime of a big responsible stay-at-home 2nd-pairing D. The issue is how Infrequently Mule has been that player due to injury and poor play. I suspect there are teams who have no interest in Samuelsson under any circumstances and teams desperate enough for the concept of Samuelsson that think they can wash off the Buffalo stink. I think the Sabres best approach may be the one they took with Cozens: find a similar depreciated asset, exchange change-of-scenery guys, and cross your fingers. When I hear Lindy Ruff talk culture and about figuring out how certain Sabres didn’t match his preconceived concept of them over the course of the year, I think first of Mule. I think they played him with Dahlin down the stretch to rehabilitate some value in order to trade him this summer and I think he - along with Byram - is the most likely Sabre to be moved. I don’t expect the return to be much.

I think what bugs me about your Amerks posts is the lack of context. "They're doing it wrong, just like the Sabres" Amerks might be flawed (we'll see) but they're contenders; they're nothing like the Sabres. They had the 7th-best defence in the AHL this year and the 7th-best offence and the 4th-best record. In NHL terms, they're the Knights or the Canes, not the Sabres. It's one of those things where you've set yourself up to be 'right' until they win the Calder Cup, and even then you'll say "It wont translate to the NHL because they're doing it wrong."

I think the Rangers would have trouble paying Byram what he wants. I also think Byram is significantly better than Schnieder. Would have to be a few more pieces to make this work

The market for players of Alex Tuch’s profile and stature is pretty well established: a 1st, plus an equivalent prospect as a rental at the deadline. Brock Nelson is the most recent example. In a best case scenario, Tuch’s size, speed, contract and playoff experience all may add up to him being the hottest asset on the market and push that up. The Timo Maier haul (a 1st, 2nd and 3 prospects) is a best-case scenario. Some might argue he’d offer a bigger return if you trade him now. I guess that’s possible, but I didn’t come across an example, at least for a player of Tuch’s profile. Assets like him rarely get moved for anything other than futures, so a hockey trade would be a surprise. I think given team needs, I’d be trying to re-sign him for as long as that door stays open.

I think Jack Quinn is a tough call for all GMs after the season he just had. Is he a 60-point top-six potential break out you can buy low on? Is he a 35-point one-way winger who’s going to bounce around and wash out of the league in a few years? Exact comparables were a little tough to find Kaapo Kakko was traded for Will Borgen and a 3rd. He had similar production over a much longer runway in terms of NHL games. Same position, better size, less skill? Phillip Tomasino was traded for a 4th. He’s a similar player with a lesser pedigree. I think his value at the time of the trade reflects what Quinn’s will be next year if we keep him and he shows less than he did this year. Alexander Holtz went one spot ahead of Quinn in the same draft, has a similar profile and has shown a lot less as a pro. He was traded for Paul Cotter, a useful younger bottom-sixer. To me, that’s the floor on Quinn’s current value. Alex Newhook for a late 1st and an early 2nd. To me, this is probably the best comparable to where Quinn is right now. Newhook is of a similar profile and had similar production at a similar point in his career to where Quinn is now. Kirby Dach had produced at a lesser rate than Quinn over 3 NHL seasons when he was swapped for pick 13. That might be the absolute ceiling for Quinn’s value, but I doubt he gets that much. Dach is a big centre which demands a premium that Quinn will not. I think I’d be most interested in moving Quinn if he was the “young player” component in a package offer for a good player, like the Chytil piece in the J.T. Miller trade.

Pick #9 Not a lot of top 10 picks have been traded in recent years. In 2022, pick 7 was traded (along with a 2nd and 3rd) for Alex Debrincat In 2022, pick 13 was traded (along with a 3rd) for Kirby Dach In 2022, pick 13 was traded for Alexander Romanov and a 4th In 2021, pick 9 was traded (along with cap dumps and a 2nd) for Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson In 2021, pick 12 was traded (along with another 1st, a 2nd and Adam Boqvist) for Seth Jones and pick 32 In 2021, pick 13 was traded (along with a 2nd and Robert Hagg) for Rasmus Ristolainen Matt Savoie, 2 years after being picked #9 for Ryan McLeod also works as comparable Going a little further back In 2017 pick 7 was traded (along with Tony DeAngelo) for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta Jordan Staal, Jeff Carter were acquired for packages built around pick 7 and pick 8 Corey Schnieder was acquired for pick 9, straight across

Thompson Tuch Peterka sports a GF% of 57.9 Thompson Kulich Benson is 55.6% Their most effective combo was Thompson, Kulich Peterka with 65.4% Best group in the league (minimum 200 minutes) was Fiala Byfield and Laferriere at 76.9% Some big name lines: Hyman Draisaitl McDavid 72.7% Knies Matthews Marner 61% Verhaege Barkov Reinhart 58.3% Lehkonen McKinnon Rantanen 55.6% Tkachuk Bennett Verhaege 44.4%

Most people don’t expect Adams to make a big move because Adams. But there is no shortage of Sabre names in the rumour mill. This thread is a place where we can discuss some of them, what similar assets have been traded for in the past, and what we might expect in return. To me, Byram is clearly on the table, as is pick #9 and any of our pipeline players. I think we also have to consider the possibility of Tuch and Peterka being moved due to their value and contract situations. And I think Quinn, Samuelsson and UPL could be had due to last year’s poor play and the need to upgrade their roster spots.

This. The only thing I can thing of is Bryson is this year’s Clague: purely insurance who has been waived before and you don’t mind waiving again? Is Johnson subject to waivers? He’s only a 2nd-year pro, but he is an older prospect, so I’m not sure.