dudacek

I think one thing that needs to be discussed first is exactly why the PP is as bad as it is. I'm going to start with something I discovered that was a bit unexpected: Tage Thompson kinda sucked on the PP and has for some time. I still had this picture in my head of the guy who bombed 20 PPGs three years ago, but that guy has disappeared. Tage dipped to 9 PPG two years ago and just 7 last year, despite buckets of ice time. 60 players had more PP goals, 35 had more shot attempts, 91 had more PP goals per 60, 114 had better PP Shooting %. This is a guy who is top 20 in the league in both shooting percentage and total shots and leads the entire league in ES goals. How does this happen? I think you're on to something with the playmaking issue: they aren't get the puck to Tage in optimal ways.

Power play ice time: The Sabres first PP typically ran out these 4 Dahlin (point) 3:09 per game Peterka (right halfwall) 2:55 Thompson (left halfwall) 2: 54 Zucker (netfront) 2: 52 These guys also got significant minutes Tuch 2:19 Cozens 2:18 Quinn 2:14 These guys got some looks, mostly 2nd unit Power 1:26 Benson 1:25 Kulich 1:25 Byram 1:08 These guys got spot duty Krebs 0:30 McLeod 0:29 Goals: Zucker 11 Thompson 7 Peterka 6 Dahlin 5 Tuch 3 Quinn 3 Benson 3 Points: Zucker 21 Dahlin 21 Peterka 18 Thompson 16 Quinn 13 Tuch 11 Power 6

They scored 43 goals total, and ran at an 18% clip, good for 24th in the league. It was up from the 16.6% pace from the previous year (29th) when they only scored 37. Those numbers seem inexcusable for a team that was 4th in the league with 185 goals at 5-on-5 How do they fix it?

I mean, i liked Nazar as a prospect and can't say I've watched much of him since, but this interests me: Nazar C 5'10" 190, picked 13 2022 NHL Draft Östlund C 5'11" 175, picked 16 2022 NHL Draft Nazar 2024 WJC GP: 7, 0/8/8 Östlund 2024 WJC GP: 7, 3/7/10 Nazar called up this year after a 21-game 11/13/24 run as an AHL rookie Östlund called up this year after a 32-game 17/17/34 run as an AHL rookie And that's where they diverged: Nazar had 26 points in 53 games, Östlund had none in 8. Nazar played PP, with 16 minutes a night on the 2nd line at 43% SAT% and 43.2% xGF% Östlund played 10 minutes a night with Malenstyn and Lafferty at 55% SAT% and 46% xGF% One guy gets millions and is pencilled in for an important NHL role and has his fan base excited, the other guy is expected to spend the entire year in the minors again. There's sometimes a very fine line.

Yep, if a Tuch level core player emerges from the system it will be a surprise: a Brodie Zeimer goes Brandon Hagel kinda thing. He’s got a lot of upside but I generally think a positive result for Mrtka is Myers, Östlund is McLeod. Maybe Helenius can be Derek Roy, but I think that’s probably stretching it.

I think that's a fair if pessimistic take. Helenius, Mrtka, Levi and Östlund for me. I think there are another 10ish that could and the odds say a few of those will. Point is though, they've shot their shot in terms of their post-Eichel rebuild through the kids. The best of the bunch is already on the roster.

Well in terms of Pronman's prospect pool ranking, it's only the past 5 years that matter. Their top picks were 9th, 14th, 13th, 9th and 1st, so I'd say 'yes', but maybe not as much as 14 years would imply: that's one guy picked in the top 8. That said, it's a ranking. 🤷‍♂️

I see In Benson, Quinn, Kulich, Helenius and Östlund, (outside chance Doan and Rosen) potential top six players, which is probably more than most teams. The issue is more about whether any of those guys can be legitimate first-liners, because I think they're going to need at least one to make that jump.

Granato had an openly stated development plan of teaching offence first defence second. I think with the offence in place, he made clear progress on improving the defence in his 3rd full year but took a modest step back overall in the process and was not given a chance to see his plan through. I think there were a lot of players firmly on board with Granato who struggled transitioning to Ruff (Cozens, Power, Quinn, Peterka, Samuelsson, Clifton). I’ve seen little to suggest that either coach is/was on the right track.

Personally disagree with his take on Benson, but he's been consistent on that and Benson's done nothing to prove him wrong. And overall I tend to agree with his big picture takeaway: quite a few likely NHLers, not many likely studs.

Wait, what? Is this the JFresh model predicting playoffs for the Sabres this year? Dammit man, give me context!

From Rachel Lenzi in the Buffalo News: As much as people say they’re ready for change, they’re also inherently resistant to it, or the possibility of being changed. That’s not a knock on the Sabres or their players, but something that has been studied on scientific, psychological and organizational levels. Ruff didn’t have a good chunk of time to implement his own philosophies under the proverbial and physical roofs of training camp in Buffalo. The Sabres began training camp Sept. 18, then traveled to Europe in a matter of days, to prepare to open the 2024-25 season against New Jersey in Prague. That’s a lot of logistics to juggle, from Ruff’s standpoint, from a player’s standpoint and from an organizational standpoint. Now, in NFL parlance, throw in a four-inch-thick playbook of entirely new concepts to learn, and there’s a lot to manage and absorb. I think the team looked poorly coached last year. How much of that was due to what Lenzi mentions: transition from Granato and lack of prep time? Will we see a more cohesive, together team this year as a result of those obstacles being removed?

Why is lower now than say 2021, when Eichel was sitting out for a trade and every other “good” veteran on the previous team was gone? The kids weren’t any better than the current group - Mittelstadt, Tage and Dahlin all looked like ***** the previous year, Power wasn’t coming - and the team’s record was almost as bad as the tank years. Personally that was my low point, Not arguing anything here - your low point is your own - just curious. The Sabres have literally had a dozen teams with worse records. Five of those came in the last decade and those five don’t include the tank.

Completely understand and I feel bad for you. Me — regardless of what my pragmatic brain knows to be true — I still get impatient for September training camp reports to start rolling in and the puck to drop on opening night. Rasmus Dahlin is worth my subscription: so ***** good. I'm excited to see if Kesselring plays with the same kind of wild stallion energy i saw in my limited Utah viewings. I'm curious if Doan has the selfless, grinding energy touted in his press clippings I wonder if Owen Power's balls dropped, or Mule's, and if either can consistently show the games they have given us glimpses of. Is Norris what we need? Can Byram take another step? Can Jack Quinn bounce back, because i loved that kid's game prior to last year. Can Zach Benson add production to what is truly a delightful style of game? Will this finally be the year Levi emerges? What does Kulich have in store for us? I like watching Alex Tuch play hockey Can Tage ride his Olympic dream to a 50-goal season? Lots of things I'm curious about, lots of of hopium available should I choose to inject it. I don't really care if that makes me a glutton for punishment. There's a pretty good chance they'll give me plenty of reason to be depressed and frustrated during the season. I'm going to take advantage of the preseason while I still can.

Zach Benson at 19 10/18/28 TOI: 14:40 SAT% 55.5 GF% 51.2 xGF% 53.7 JJ Peterka at 20 12/20/32 TOI: 13:39 SAT% 49.0 GF% 43.5 xGF% 48.5 Benson was demonstrably more ready for the NHL at 19 than Peterka was at 20

I keep coming back to basics on this: Zach Benson was in the NHL the past two seasons because he was good enough to be in the NHL the past two seasons. People keep focusing on the 30 points part of the equation (which is NHL-calibre) and ignoring the defensive part of the equation: that he is an absolute unicorn for a teenager in that aspect of the game. All the development cliches that people keep leaning into come from players who can't play defence and have games built around overpowering opponents with skill-based tactics that don't work at higher levels; they turn pucks over, get caught cheating and get frustrated when those tactics fail; their numbers drop and their ice time gets cut because their coaches can't trust them.. That's not Benson: he's playing because his coaches trust him. People are confused because what he's doing is extremely rare; most teenage prospects make the league due to their superior offence while they learn defence on the fly; with Benson, its his advanced defence earns him a spot in the NHL while he learns offence on the fly. But there is one obvious comparable: Ryan O'Reilly who had 26 points in 81 games at 18, 26 points in 74 at 19 and 55 in 81 games at 20

If i had to make a prediction I'd say 50. I think Peterka's departure and Zucker's likely regression will leave a hole that almost guarantees a jump for at least one of Kulich/Quinn/Benson and I think Bennie is the one most likely stapled to Thompson.

The list of players who played 40 games as an 18-year-old in the NHL this century is exactly 40 players deep. https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/stats/all-time-season?age=u19&from=2000-2001&sort=gp Show me this very, very long list of ruined players.

The beauty about this staring at a piece of paper is that you can comfortably say each player is a good, probably above average option in their slot.

That’s the Peterka deal and the debate about Benson replacing him in a nutshell isn’t it? I know people hate +/- but it shows Tuch +16 and McLeod +13 won their battles, Cozens -13 Quinn -18 did not while Tage -2 and Peterka -1 were a draw Switching to xGoals %, The Sabres had 4 lines that were “good” 2 of them had Tage and 3 had Benson. Maybe these are the forwards who create winning matchups and the ones who should be seeing the toughest ice time? Not sure exactly what you are envisioning here, but agree coaches and fans need to take a harder look at lines in terms of how they match up. I also think some of the moves they’ve made are based on Lindy wanting players who better fit what he wants to do.

I think Norris is smart enough and fast enough to take advantage of the holes Tage creates offensively and help the line in its own end. He reads the play at a high level. Hes just not a creative puck handler and a distributor in the Mittelstadt or Connolly mould. Thing is Tage doesn’t need that type of centre. He wants to be the guy on his line carrying the puck. He’s a bit of a unicorn in the way he creates offence for himself. There’s a reason JJ Peterka went from 22 assists to 41 last year. Jeff Skinner had never topped 30 assists in his career. Put him with Tage and he suddenly had 47. Norris can have a career high in assists without changing a thing about his game simply chipping pucks in Tages direction.

You don’t get it. Benson isn’t being forced to play a different way: this is how he plays, how he has always played. This is how he scored points as a junior and how he will score points in the NHL if and when his strength and his shot mature to an NHL level so he can finish what he started. You talk like there’s a JJ Peterka skill set in there that’s been stifled. That’s not his game and never was.

There is such a thing as a player not being talented enough to play with your most talented players. Never stopped Jochen Hecht from playing with Brière, or Mike Grier from playing with Drury. Or Evan Rodrigues from skating with the top guys in Florida. People shouldnt be basing their line choices entirely on offence. Line chemistry and matchup success is what matters. In theory I have no problem with Greenway playing with more talented players if he supplies what the line needs.

Norris is not a playmaker, full stop. Never has been. He has topped 20 assists in a season just once, including AHL and college. He has just 67 assists in 239 NHL games.

Is there anyone who has got a whiff of Benson playing tentative hockey? I feel like your criticisms are of a generic “young offensive star not lighting it up” variety, not real observations of the player, his game or his mindset