dudacek

LOL. So you're expecting me to disprove my point by remembering the hits I said no one remembers 😜 (The goalie factor is definitely something that makes that one stand out more than, say the two we saw on Kulich this spring.)

I think it has more to do with sample size. I mean in a lot of these case you are talking about 3 goals or 2 over a span of 70 minutes. I was shocked to see how little time lines actually spend together.

It was interesting that they (I think to a man) believe that Samuelsson is done as a Sabre due to the Noesen hit. It reminded me very much of how Gaustad wore the response on Miller. Stuff like this always fascinates me in terms of group psychology: why do certain things take hold the way they do? Dozens of big hits happen without response throughout the season and throughout the league every year. Dozens of guys are guilty of not responding. A year later, most people would struggle to recall 3 of them, but a decade later everybody remembers Lucic on Miller. I bet a lot of you might say something like "teams just don't overcome that". I think that's probably because we don't remember the ones they did overcome. I mean I've seen people blaming Lucic on Miller for the 14 years of no playoffs. I mean seriously? There's one player left from that team in the entire league. The actual hit and the response literally had no tangible impact on goals for and against — then or since. But the impact of the story that grew up around it is immense. Why that particular one and not others? I'm sure there's reasons but it's crazy, and seems kinda capricious how things can take hold in our minds. Sorry, just random musings. (Personally I think Mule is done as a Sabre too, but because of his ***** play)

Wait, it was this thread, yes 3rd most common, but actually 159 minutes.

I posted it in another thread, but I think it was 113? If I remember it correctly the were the 3rd most common Sabres combo this year?

I didn't blame him for that one. Didn't get a great replay, but it looked like the puck took a weird bounce. That robbery shoulda been a goal. Very slow release by the Crunch player made Devon look good there. A much choppier period, with some not-smart penalties.

And Levi lets in a very weak one to open the 2nd.

Leone's Amerks look a helluvalot more structured than Seth Appert's did. Kulich popped like he should have

No one responded to my earlier post: Am I wrong to think that if Forton is promoted instead of Karmanos, then Karmanos is outta here? Forton is a recently promoted assistant GM. Karmanos is the longtime associate GM who is ahead of Forton on the org chart. He is also the guy who brought in Ventura, so if he goes, i wonder if Ventura goes as well?

Not a regular listener of After the Whistle, but just listened to this week’s round table pod with Hamilton and Harrington. It left me thinking the narrative and off season direction for the Sabres will be “it took Lindy over half a season to diagnose and begin to repair what was wrong with the team.” The moves on and off the ice this spring and in to the summer are and will be in line with his conclusions. It really feels like some of you are going to get what you hoped for: Lindy Ruff driving the bus as the de facto head of hockey operations.

I'm thinking whenever Terry is done with the Bills draft, so Monday maybe? Given the rumours about the possible shuffle, I suspect Kevyn and Terry have already talked about the structure of what's to come, or at least a few options. Otherwise, there's no rumour to speculate about. This meeting will be about cementing those discussions into action. I'm really curious as to whether Kevyn has presented Terry with a plan that Terry's pondering, or Terry has presented Kevyn with some direction/ultimatum that Kevyn has been pondering.

The opportunity to share in that kind of joy is one of the biggest reasons I love sports. Embrace it every chance you get.

They are nothing like they were a few years ago. They play the game the right way and when scoring chances surface their skill guys are better at burying them than yours are.

I see Pronman has the Sabres picking Martone in his first mock. Mrtka, Eklund and McQueen went 8, 9, 10. Schaefer, Misa, Desnoyers, Hagens, Frondell, Obrien were the first six.

Interesting. I haven't looked at any comparables, but based on that $5.3M starting point and the projected cap, $5.3M this year computes to: $5.5, $6.24, $6.8 over the next 3 years. Very roughly speaking and assuming a similar cap growth, that $5.3M might translate to something like: $7.3, $7.8, $8.3 and $8.8 by the end of the contract. So assuming Byram plays exactly the same way from 24 to 30 that he did at 23, the math says a 7x$7M seems like good long-term value. 🤷‍♂️

I did, and that remains my opinion largely because of their age and upside, and because I'd be bringing new, defensively strong guys in the other 3 slots. But that doesn't mean I don't understand the rationale behind your argument and see its validity. To me, the issues were primarily Power and Samuelsson in the #2 and #4 slots and too-risky play from the 3rd pair. My plan depends on improvement from Power, which I think we'll see, and a better partner, which I would make a priority. I think Byram was very good as a #3 and I would be very happy to keep him at #3 $.

You realize I have never argued against the bold? Responded directly that it was fair comment. Neither have I argued against your characterization of Power's play this season. My entire point is that Byram was a positive two-way contributor this year despite very hard minutes, and not the train wreck you've consistently made him out to be.

When did Ruff say this? Actions matter; he played Byram 23 minutes a night, almost 19 of that at ES and much of that against the other team's best. The bold is a matter of degree and opinion, supported without much context, and mostly by your insistence on leaning into the xG stats. In terms of real goals, he is a positive player, despite playing tough minutes on a crappy team. Here is some context: Byram 52.0% GF% Seider 49.7% Faber 48.4% Reilly 48.4% Sergachev 47.7% Dobson 46.3% Luke Hughes 46.5% Pesce 45.7% Karlsson 44.9 Letang 44.7% Sanderson 44.1% Rasmus Andersson 37.9% Liabilities every single one of them? Redundant on Buffalo? Going down the stretch, they separated Dahlin and Byram. Probably in part to see what Byram did without Dahlin. With Connor Clifton as his main partner over the final 15 games, Byram had a 53.1% gF%, still playing 19 ES minutes a night. Does none of this mean anything?

The line combo tool on Moneypuck is fun to play with but sure drove home to me how much time I've wasted arguing about depth charts and debating line combos. The Sabres played close to 5,000 minutes of hockey this year. Their most common line combo (Tuch Thompson Peterka) played 188 minutes together. I don't think I've ever once seen a Krebs/Benson line combo pitched, yet Peyton is one of Zach's most frequent linemates. Once the puck drops, those charts might as well be tossed out the window. They certainly don't reflect what actually happens over the course of a season. Just another reminder of what a chaotic game hockey is.

Here’s something I haven’t seen posted: Benson/Thompson/Kulich was the 3rd most-common line combo used by the Sabres this year: 159.1 minutes. They scored 10 goals and allowed 8. Their xG% was 57.7 (4th on the team). And their Corsi was 50.9% (9th) Benson’s next most common were: Krebs and Quinn 11th, 91 minutes 2 for, 2 against, xG% 67.7 (1st), Corsi 62.8% (1st) Cozens and Quinn 14th, 68.4 minutes, 2 for, 1 against, xG% 45.3 (12th), Corsi 53.4% (6th) Kulich and Krebs 16th, 57.7 minutes, 3 for, 2 against, xG% 61.2 (2nd), Corsi 58.1% (2nd) One thing this doesn’t show you is the matchups. I’d bet good money he was playing against tougher opponents with Thompson than when he was with Krebs. My biggest takeaway is that whatever line he’s on seems to win, regardless of what metric you use. (I only used the 20 lines that played at least 50 minutes together, all numbers courtesy of Moneypuck)

You know what I love about expected goals? The way it sometimes gives you wonderfully un-expected stats? Stats like “the best line iced by the Sabres this year was the dominating Benson/Krebs/Malenstyn combo” - a jaw-dropping 85.7%! I can’t understand why stupid Lindy only kept them together for 17 minutes. My point is that I think it’s a little dangerous to lean too hard into just these numbers. Benson is incredibly good at creating and preventing expected goals. He’s less good with the actual ones. And he’s 19 and very much a work in progress.

Here’s the other thing about Byram: he’s 23 years old and hasnt even played 250 games yet. He’s got elite feet, quick hands and he competes. I will be stunned if he does not get much better in his own zone as he grows from 22 to 26. Virtually all defencemen of his pedigree do. He’s going to play in the top 4 of whatever NHL team he’s on for the next 10 or 12 years and people are handwaving that away because his xG% is below 50% away from Rasmus Dahlin on the fricking Buffalo Sabres? While ignoring the fact that his actual gF% is well over 50%? Playing 23 minutes a night? At 23? On the fricking Buffalo Sabres? Do people even look at the numbers of guys like Jake Sanderson and Moritz Seider, considered untouchable studs by their teams? There’s not many NHL defencemen of his age and experience doing the kind of hard minutes Byram did this year, but these are two of them. I don’t think Byram is some untouchable star in waiting, but I do think he is a talent, who played better two-way hockey this year, and was more important to the Sabres, than some people are willing to recognize. He’s not a spare part or a liability. And he still has more to give. You only trade him for what he’s actually worth.

Absolutely. I’ve always thought it weird that everyone who wants to trade Byram says “you’ll have to pay him as a 1st pairing defenceman and he’s not!” He’s coming off a career-high 38 points and has never before hit 30. He’s got middling metrics. He’s 2 years away from unrestricted free agency. Why would you have to pay him like a first-pairing defenceman?

From all the reading I’ve done, I blame that more on Pegula than Botterill. But one thing that doesn’t ever get talked about is how Eichel’s dissatisfaction with the franchise was allowed to fester during Jason’s reign of “building” by plodding along and adding all the Wayne Simmonds and Jimmy Vesey’s he could find. Or how he set the table for the great free agent exodus of 2021 by failing to tie up any of the worthwhile pieces he had like Reinhart, Montour, McCabe and Ullmark. I mean Adams shares the blame on that fully, and COVID and Pegula played a role for both, but I’ve always wondered, did Botterill even care about having a core?