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utsvävande

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About utsvävande

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    http://45b.us

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  1. utsvävande

    Empty Calorie Scoring

    Let's say the TB Lightning have 50 points. Imagine a formula that decides how many points they would have if each player was replaced by a 'Replacement Level Player', who we will call CJ Smith. So our formula uses stats like goals Kutcherov are on the ice for (cue your raised eyebrow) and who you play against, and how you do on the PP and how you do on the PK, and our formula decides the Lightning would have 45.4 points with CJ Smith instead of Kurcherov. The difference between Wins (50) and Wins Above Replacement (45.4) give Kutcherov a 4.6 (Wins Above Replacement) WAR, which is 95 percentile in the NHL, so his line is yellow, since his scoring is 100%, he leads the league. This formula likes Erik Cernak, Cernak plays against tough competition, he plays PK, the Lightning win because (according to the formula) his play, Cernak's WAR is 90%, even though he doesn't score. Now consider Patrick Kane. Let's say the Blackhawks have 35 points (I'm a bit too lazy to look up actual numbers). Replacing Kane with CJ Smith, our formula decides that the Blackhawks would only have 32.8 points, so Kane only helps 2.2 points. So even though Kane scores a lot, the Blackhawks don't win enough, and 2.2 WAR might be 50%. I don't believe that it's totally meaningless, but it's pretty close.
  2. utsvävande

    The Power Play - How to Fix It?

    If you watch the Hurricane highlights against Nashville today, it looks like Carolina is working on this concept. For me, I don't want the puck holder to be behind the net, as it's harder to make the goaltender move, whereas the puck holder is very dangerous half way toward the corner.
  3. utsvävande

    GDT: Sabres at Vegas 10/16/18 10:00 PM MSG, WGR

    Aurelius used to play with Tennyson, no?
  4. utsvävande

    Buffalo Sabres Predictions

    71
  5. utsvävande

    2018 NHL draft

    No, the concern is how old is he really
  6. utsvävande

    Are the Buffalo Bills the Dumbest Franchise in Sports?

    Look, I don't believe in God either, but this is going too far.
  7. utsvävande

    NHL Playoff bracket challenge

    I looked over Blue's shoulder when he was making picks. I always cheat from the wrong person. This reminds me of high school.
  8. utsvävande

    2018 NHL draft

    you can read my draft contest picks at 45b.us. I didn't figure out how to do this until 2016. My 14, and particularly 15 picks are embarrassing.
  9. utsvävande

    2018 NHL draft

    I always love to see your board liger. As to mine, I'm still downloading data. The first 4 on my board are almost normal, it's pick 5 where my list goes haywire.
  10. utsvävande

    2018-19 Team

    I was going with a trade with Toronto.
  11. utsvävande

    OT: Hotel in NYC

    I would try Queens. I would look for a hotel near the 7 line, which would be a direct train to Citi Field. Queens is less of a tourist destination than Manhattan, so prices ought to be less. Each 7 stop is a different immigrant community, so you can get real Asian, African, etc food without traveling like Woody. The train to the Bronx will be a couple trains, but it won't be bad. You take a train into Manhattan then get a 4 train up into the Bronx. You will likely want to walk around Manhattan, but I think it's a better choice to be out in Queens if baseball is your motivation for travel.
  12. utsvävande

    Around the NHL 2017

    This is last year: BUF #15 EICHEL(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(1); #9 KANE(2) BUF #23 REINHART(2), Deflected, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(3); #29 POMINVILLE(4) BUF #67 POULIOT(4), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #90 O'REILLY(7); #55 RISTOLAINEN(5) BUF #15 EICHEL(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #9 KANE(10); #55 RISTOLAINEN(6) BUF #21 OKPOSO(3), Wrist, Def. Zone, 149 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(7); #9 KANE(11) BUF #67 POULIOT(8), Backhand, Off. Zone, 21 ft.Assists: #6 SCANDELLA(7); #55 RISTOLAINEN(8) BUF #9 KANE(14), Slap, Off. Zone, 30 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(9); #15 EICHEL(16) BUF #15 EICHEL(15), Snap, Off. Zone, 24 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(11); #55 RISTOLAINEN(10) BUF #23 REINHART(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(12); #55 RISTOLAINEN(11) BUF #22 LARSSON(2), Backhand, Off. Zone, 6 ft.Assists: #10 JOSEFSON(2); #55 RISTOLAINEN(12) BUF #90 O'REILLY(10), Snap, Off. Zone, 37 ft.Assists: #15 EICHEL(21); #55 RISTOLAINEN(13) BUF #15 EICHEL(17), Slap, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(16); #55 RISTOLAINEN(14) BUF #23 REINHART(8), Backhand, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #15 EICHEL(26); #55 RISTOLAINEN(15) BUF #15 EICHEL(19), Slap, Off. Zone, 47 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(16); #90 O'REILLY(20) BUF #23 REINHART(9), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(17); #15 EICHEL(27) BUF #15 EICHEL(20), Wrist, Off. Zone, 51 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(18); #21 OKPOSO(20) BUF #21 OKPOSO(9), Wrist, Off. Zone, 4 ft.Assists: #6 SCANDELLA(13); #55 RISTOLAINEN(19) BUF #90 O'REILLY(16), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 24 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(20); #21 OKPOSO(23) BUF #90 O'REILLY(17), Wrist, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(24); #55 RISTOLAINEN(21) BUF #90 O'REILLY(18), Backhand, Off. Zone, 7 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(25); #55 RISTOLAINEN(22) BUF #71 RODRIGUES(5), Slap, Off. Zone, 39 ft.Assists: #23 REINHART(19); #55 RISTOLAINEN(24) BUF #29 POMINVILLE(10), Slap, Off. Zone, 40 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(25); #90 O'REILLY(28) BUF #23 REINHART(16), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(26); #21 OKPOSO(27) BUF #29 POMINVILLE(11), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(27); #22 LARSSON(10) BUF #29 POMINVILLE(12), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(28); #71 RODRIGUES(12) BUF #67 POULIOT(13), Backhand, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(29); #23 REINHART(22) BUF #90 O'REILLY(21), Wrist, Off. Zone, 22 ft.Assists: #23 REINHART(24); #55 RISTOLAINEN(30) BUF #90 O'REILLY(22), Wrist, Off. Zone, 15 ft.Assists: #15 EICHEL(34); #55 RISTOLAINEN(31) BUF #23 REINHART(21), Snap, Def. Zone, 172 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(32); #15 EICHEL(35) BUF #21 OKPOSO(13), Wrist, Off. Zone, 35 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(33); #15 EICHEL(37) BUF #23 REINHART(24), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(34); #90 O'REILLY(36) BUF #92 NYLANDER(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 26 ft.Assists: #45 GUHLE(3); #55 RISTOLAINEN(35)
  13. utsvävande

    The even randomer thread

    I'm in rural Virginia. I've been thinking about this idea myself, I call it the hot dog cart idea. Basically the difficulty of starting a hot dog cart is the underlying requirements, you not only need a cart, you need a commercial kitchen to support you. The idea is to start a commercial kitchen, build a handful of food carts, get the operation running, then push the whole operation on to one of hot dog cart operators, then move on to the next industry and do the whole thing over again. The idea comes from Township and Village Enterprises that were important in getting the Chinese economy going in the 1980s, except that my not-for-profit would take the roll of angel money supplier that the town governments did in China. It's also a variation of how the tech financing works in California. In some ways the past few months have been good for getting this idea rolling, as I've joined the board of the local museum, so I'm getting in contact with grant money options. In others, it's difficult, as the economy improves I get work that I wasn't getting a few years back, so it's difficult getting side projects going.
  14. utsvävande

    2018 NHL draft

    It's more important to have good process than good draft picks. Tavares doesn't help the Islanders, he allows Snow to keep his job longer. All the talent isn't helping Calgary, it just keeps the GM employed, McDavid doesn't help Edmonton, he just keeps the GM employed. Most of the good teams, Nashville, Tampa, Boston, Vegas, have very few top pick stars, but enough good process to make it work. Everyone would succeed picking first, let's see if Botterill can pick 4th and make the right decision.
  15. utsvävande

    2018 NHL Playoffs: Round 1

    You're going to keep me in suspense, aren't you?
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