nfreeman

Well, JJP looked really good last night, innit? He played 16 shifts in just under 12 minutes, all 5-on-5, and was tied for 2nd among forwards with 4 shots. More importantly, he and Cozens dominated most of their shifts with speed, range and forechecking, although they probably benefited from weaker matchups (not sure if that data is posted anywhere). Krebsie turned it over too many times, but he seemed pretty capable on that line as well. Suddenly I'm feeling pretty confident about JJP being a real contributor this year.

Anderson played pretty well in most of his outings last season. As many have noted, it's reasonably likely that he'll deliver good goaltending IF they limit his workload.

The “Sabres Hockey” podcast on apple podcasts has the postgame shows, plus interviews with DG and a number of players most days.

…busy getting completely worked over by Stutzle’s line, I’d say.

If you thought TT’s line was lousy, as I did, here are some fancy stats to bolster that view:

My 2 cents: - Very exciting win and great start to the season, as many have already noted. - The outcome could've easily gone the other way, as Ottawa had plenty of chances and probably more than the Sabres had (although the Sabres had quite a few). - Goaltending was the difference. Good for Anderson for delivering that gem at age 41 against his former team. The Sabres will need to give up fewer chances than that to win most nights though. - JJP was the Sabres' best forward through 2 periods. Cozens and Mitts were the 2 best by the end of the game though. But that was a terrific showing by JJP. - Did not like Skinner's game or TT's. As someone noted upthread I think those 2 are better with Tuch and hope DG switches Tuch and Olofsson, both of whom were OK but not great. - It was great to see Cozens looking like a force of nature (JJP was keeping up with him and the 2 of them were outstanding together especially in the 2nd) and Mitts looking consistent, focused and effective. Those are 2 great developments for this team -- really 3 because JJP should be included. - Dahlin looked confident, in control and frequently like the best player on the ice. Power was pretty shaky but Joki did very well covering for him on a number of occasions. Mule was very solid. Loobie was tough and made a few very nice plays but also a few brain locks. Bryson did fine and I think helped kill the first shift of the 5-on-3 and a good shift at the end before VO's 1st ENG. - The Zemgus-Aspy-KO line got better as the game went on and was very effective in the 3rd. - Ottawa is good. I think these Ottawa-Buffalo games are going to be highly competitive and entertaining for a long time.

McTavish is a horse.

It's a good question. I have been expecting, and still kinda expect, that Cozens will emerge as the clear #2 C this year. In the meantime, I still expect Cozens to end up with about as much ice time as Mitts if not more, although I'd guess that will vary from game to game depending on how the various lines are doing. I also think, as I've said previously, that DG likes Mitts more than I do. This is evidenced by Mitts' lineup slot, including his getting VO's slot in the right circle on PP1. I sure hope DG is right about him.

I could be misremembering, but I think Bryson played a fair amount of PK last year, although that might've been due to lack of viable options. I also think DG made a point of playing Dahlin on the PK as he wanted to develop Dahlin's entire game. I kinda expect him to do the same with Power.

I don’t think anyone is disagreeing about the contract being early. The point, as you know, is that early contracts on the right guys result in cap savings, which is one of the key factors in assembling long-term cup contending rosters. Cernak, who IMHO is a good comparable in terms of role and size, being well established is the exact reason he got 8 x $5.2 after a 1-goal season. Waiting for Mule to similarly establish himself, as I stated upthread, could easily drive his cost above $6MM per year. Also, if your point is simply that they should’ve waited until halfway through this season, or next summer, just to see how Mule does this season — there are a lot of factors that go into this. Mule was ready to sign long-term now. That might not have been the case in January. They also might be working on deals with other guys (like Cozens), whose decisions could be influenced by the fact that Mule has now signed. I understand your concern, and I think it’s valid in the abstract, but I think there are also good reasons to have pulled the trigger now.

I am hoping one of your resolutions for the new season is the elimination of all of the “ha ha, some posters are so dumb” posts that seem to be your calling card.

Great post, especially the comparison to McKee, who was worth every GD nickel the Sabres refused to pay him. Well, you may not be focused on points, but your position appears to be based on the assumption that points are the only factor that would cause Mule’s cost to rise. I think that assumption is faulty. If Mule signed a 2- or 3-year bridge deal, he’d be due for a new contract after 2 or 3 years. During that period (and I’d expect that KA is quite confident in this), Mule would’ve been Dahlin’s partner and the #3 defenseman, averaging 22-23ish min per game, on a hopefully ascendant powerhouse team — and at the end of that value-juicing period, the cap is likely to be spiking. As @Doohickiehas noted, Cernak, who is a good comparable, just signed an 8-year extension at $5.2MM per year. Cernak, who had 1 goal last year in 19 min per game, will be 26 when that contract starts. I think in that context it’s quite possible that Mule could’ve cost $6MM per year following a bridge, with the subsequent big contract covering fewer of his prime years and more expensive post prime years.

Holy mackerel is PTR in trouble if they lose.

Well YMMV, of course, but I don't think Asplund has enough game to justify a long-term commitment. I think what he brings is fungible enough, and the Sabres will have enough other guys who will be expensive, that it will be important to hold down the cost of Asplund's 4th-line checking F slot.

So as of today, here are the guys who are signed long-term: Skinner TT Tuch Mule ...and that is it. The only other guys who are under contract past next season are Quinn and JJP. Cozens and Asplund are RFAs after this season, which jibes with @tom webster's post above about KA wanting to get them signed -- although I kinda doubt Asplund will get a long-term deal.

Wow. Congrats Mule. If he's as good as most of us think he is, this is a good deal for the Sabres.

I like DG too, and if this was his last year under contract then I agree with giving him an extension, but it's way too early to come to any conclusions on him or the state of the team. They could easily stink again this year. (I don't think they will, but it's quite possible.)

Sir, you are a great poster here, but sometimes it's not a bad idea to just let something go.

Marketing mistake. Good Sabrespace keeping-them-on-their-toes work there. They are on notice.

I think the guys know what the salary structure and the overall plan is, and have bought in. Spending $4MM x 2 years on a mediocre vet outsider who may be a slight upgrade at #6 D would be a major departure from that plan -- which has negative effects in the room -- for almost zero on-ice return. I also think that KA and DG think that one of their #6-#8 guys will be at least as good as Reilly by the end of this season. As for the bolded -- IMHO it's more accurate to say that KA's plan is to grow a team into a perennial Cup contender, not to scrape into the playoffs this year at all costs. My guess is that Krebs starts out looking mediocre and ineffective, and JJP starts out looking lost. There will be much anguish on this board about them. By game 12 or so, I think Krebs will look solid and JJP will improve to mediocre (by which, @Taro T and @Thorny, I mean average or a bit below average but in a pejorative way, but anyone who responds with a linguistics dissertation will get thrown in the SabreSpace dungeon). By game 25, I think Krebs will look good and JJP will look solid and bristling with potential. If we're very lucky, that potential will force its way out in the 2nd half of the season. I like it. The 3 letter-wearers, plus TT, Tuch and the FNG.

He looked really good today.

Well, Davis is clearly a major difference-maker in this offense. Let's just hope he stays healthy. As an aside, I read a great feature on Pitts' QB yesterday in the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/3662427/2022/10/06/kenny-pickett-steelers-starting-debut/ The article includes a clip of Pickett faking a slide in a big college game last year, and taking it in for a long TD after the fake: When I saw that, I thought it was a great play, but it also means that defenders are likely to err on the side of hitting him when he looks like he's going to slide. I wonder if that affected the refs in not calling Hamlin for his hit on Pickett's slide today. On any other QB, that hit is pretty clearly a flag.

I agree that driving the net and driving the play are 2 different things, but I don't think anyone here was confusing the 2, and I think most here would agree that Tuch drives the net. As for driving the play, I think it's a reasonably interesting question whether Tuch's speed, range, forechecking, hockey IQ, etc. constitute driving the play. As I mentioned above I haven't generally thought of Tuch as a play-driver. However, if his qualities as a player result in good possession/Corsi/other analytics indicating the Sabres generally control the play when he's on the ice -- maybe he is driving the play. It's something I am going to keep an eye on while watching the games this year. Regarding Mitts, I have been as down on him as the next guy, but I think we still haven't seem him play enough to fully evaluate him. He's either been hurt or playing as a rookie in the Kruger poopshow for his entire NHL career. I want to see how he looks after a healthy 40 games under DG. And, as I've said previously, the fact that DG has consistently praised Mitts, and is giving him an important slot in the lineup is pretty meaningful IMHO. Also, I know this is kinda dumb, but I was encouraged about Mitts after watching this:

I get this, and it's kind of you to say it, but I also think this tweet (and many of his others, and plenty of his questions at Sabres pressers over the years) are indicative of a type of behavior by Harrington that would explain why seemingly no one can stand him.