nfreeman

You're right that it's not immediate help, but if Vegas or Toronto or someone else panics and trades for Eichel now, he can have the ADR ASAP and, allegedly, play after the Olympic break. It would reduce the pressure on the panicked GM, at least for now.

Squid Game was really good.

This is just a complete load of crap. At some point, people are responsible for their actions, and calling people racist for holding guys like Kane to that standard is offensive and destructive.

the Sabres did indeed have the better of it in the 3rd, but TB had the edge in the 1st and dominated in the 2nd. Still, the Sabres hung in there, caught a few breaks on TB failures to convert point-blank chances, got very good goaltending and scored opportunistically to seize a very nice win. Cozens looked overwhelmed tonight. Skinner was a bit better though than vs NJ and I thought he had a couple of chances with about 6 min left in the 2nd that changed the momentum. I agree that TT’s line was their best. separately, I was glad to have Hayden on the ice tonight.

OK -- you've made your point. Let it go already.

OK -- would you care to elaborate?

Exactly. The likelihood of getting back a player as good as Marner, even without the ADR/injury discount, is quite low. As matters stand currently -- i.e. where the acquiror is bearing the ADR/$50MM risk? It's less than 10%, maybe less than 3%. The panicked team making a dumb move is the Sabres' last best hope for getting a premium asset back in trade for Eichel.

So, the Leafs are maybe the richest team in the NHL, play in the most pressurized market in the NHL, are inclined towards making splashy moves, are 2-4, have lost 3 in a row, including a 7-1 blowout loss on HNIC this weekend and are playing Carolina tonight for another likely loss. Mitch Marner has 1 assist in 6 games this year despite averaging almost 22 min per game. He is a dynamic, exciting, highly skilled C/RW who doesn't turn 25 until next May. He's under contract at $10.9MM per year for 3 more years after this one, and then will be a UFA. If KA were somehow able to confirm that Marner would welcome a trade to Buffalo, would you trade Eichel straight up for Marner? Would you sweeten the pot with, say, Ryan Johnson or Mattias Samuelsson or the Sabres' #2 in 2022? I would.

I agree on Brisson. I noticed that comment by Callahan during the Bruins game -- I just thought it was a player naturally enough sticking up for another player, especially against a poorly run franchise.

So there is no grievance procedure where the team’s doctors can be overruled by some kind of medical arbitrator? If that is the case, why do we keep hearing that Brisson may be filing a grievance in the next couple of weeks? I suppose it could just be more sound and fury from Brisson without any real weight to it. If the players really have zero recourse in a situation where the team is employing Dr Nick Riviera, then I agree that they screwed up this issue in their CBA negotiations. But that doesn’t seem likely. I agree on the racehorse analogy (hello GoDD).

But why do you think TP is preventing Jack from having the surgery? Jack can have the surgery tomorrow if he wants to do so — he just can’t do so AND make the Sabres pay him the $50MM left on his contract.

We’re having an interesting conversation here. No need to get snippy.

Well, the point of the agreement would be to make it clear that the parties agreed contractually that Jack, not the Sabres, was responsible for the decision. As for duress, it would certainly not exist here. The Sabres aren't forcing him to do anything -- they're willing to pay him $50MM to do nothing. What you're suggesting would be a crazy outcome, which is not unheard of but still so unlikely as not to constitute a real risk or substantial part of the Sabres' analysis IMHO. I think it's as simple as Jack wants the ADR and he wants the Sabres to bear the risk, while the Sabres don't want to bear the risk.

This is probably not correct. Jack would sign a bunch of documents stating that the Sabres wanted him not to have ADR, but that he was insisting on ADR, he understands and assumes all risk, he releases the team and TP from all liability, etc. If all that happened -- and it's pretty much certain that the Sabres would insist on that type of agreement -- and the surgery (or playing in the NHL following the ADR) went wrong, Jack could certainly sue anyway, but he would probably lose.

KC and Baltimore are both getting spanked.

As for the statute of limitations on the Sabres' willingness to wait out Jack and the potential bidders -- I think it doesn't end until after the season. They aren't planning on any boost to their team from an Eichel trade this year, and they probably figure that the same crappy offers will be there on draft day 2022, if not better. As for the alternatives -- I think there is almost zero possibility that the Sabres agree to take the $50MM risk, or for that matter any risk that is substantially higher than $12.5MM, on the ADR. So I think the alternative to the status quo from the Sabres' perspective is not the Sabres taking the $50MM risk, but is rather taking a lesser package in trade on or about draft day 2022. Finally, I'll respectfully disagree that it all comes down to different assessments of the likelihood of full recovery post-ADR. I think it's certainly an important factor, but I also think that the other factors that have been discussed in this thread all play into the risk-reward calculation, which is part of why this is so complicated and hasn't been resolved yet.

I generally agree with this, but I also think Dahlin's top speed is a bit lower than I would like and is clearly lower than guys like Makar and Hughes.

Good stuff @Taro T. I agree on Cozens — he seems to be improving and gaining confidence every game. I kinda liked both Bryson and Miller though — eye of the beholder I suppose.

I've been thinking a bit more about this. I think I was kinda missing your point yesterday -- I think you were saying that if other teams are willing to risk $50MM in trading for Jack and letting him have the ADR (although I think we agree at this point that these other teams aren't willing to risk much more than that, i.e. they are unwilling to give up much in trade for Jack) -- why isn't TP willing to risk $50MM, let Jack have the ADR and restore his value, and then trade him for a rich bounty? In other words, TP is as rich as any of these other guys, and if some of them are willing to risk $50MM on Jack, why isn't TP? I think there are a few possible answers: 1. The Sabres' analysis of the likelihood of Jack's return to full value could be materially different from those other teams' analyses -- e.g. they might see it as 25% likely and they see it as 60% likely. 2. The Sabres likely view time as being on their side -- they might think there is a reasonable likelihood that if they wait another month or 2, either Jack will cave and have fusion or another GM will cave and give up the crown jewels for Jack -- and if either of those things happen the Sabres can avoid taking the $50MM risk. 3. This is the big one: the reward for the Sabres taking the $50MM risk isn't the same as it is for an acquiror taking that risk. The acquiror's upside is a fully recovered, motivated, and thrilled-to-be-outta-jail Jack Eichel, i.e. a MVP-candidate-level player in his prime. The Sabres' upside is a couple of blue-chip prospects and some draft picks, any or all of whom may or may not develop, in a few years, into top-end NHL players, or who might be just OK, or who might wash out, or who might be deeply unhappy to be traded to Buffalo from Vegas or NYC or Southern California. It's apples and oranges.

NJ was better and deserved the W. That rookie C Mercer is really fast. The Sabres needed more offense from Skinner, TT and VO. Toker was really good though.

But if Jack never plays again, the insurance (based on what we've heard, which sounds reasonable IMHO) will cover 75%, so TP's exposure is $12.5MM. If another team acquires him and he has ADR, the exposure jumps to $50MM, minus whatever the Sabres take back, which will probably be $12.5MM or less. If you agree that no one is going to give up their crown jewels for Jack even if TP somehow bears the $50MM risk (which again I don't think is possible), then what's in it for TP to increase his risk above the $12.5MM? Because some teams are willing to risk $50MM, minus whatever the Sabres take back, but so far no one is willing to risk more than that -- i.e. not the money AND their best prospects.

But TP doesn't believe in ADR enough to take on the $50MM risk, and I don't see how a deal could be engineered under which the Sabres bear the $50MM risk in exchange for a Zegras/Drysdale/1st rounder or similar rich trade package. For that matter, I don't think any GM is going to give up his crown jewels for a pre-full-recovery Eichel regardless of how much the $50MM risk will be reduced. My point was that a GM with a stinking rich and risk-tolerant owner might be willing to risk the $50MM, or most of it, but not the $50MM AND the crown jewels, which, to an owner like that, are more precious and harder to replace than the $50MM.

I agree generally that good advanced metrics over a small sample size don't mean much, and that it's way too soon to be giddy about the Sabres, but I will say that their style of play looks much faster, in both ends of the rink, much closer to the net on offense and much more puck-possession-oriented than RK's did.

I would guess that: - those 5 teams are not willing to give up good assets in trade for Eichel - those 5 teams, in any trade for Eichel, will require the Sabres to take some combination of bad contracts (which are also not insured, so every dollar they unload that way offsets a dollar of Eichel's cost) and Eichel salary retention - any insurance coverage that those 5 teams would be able to get for ADR would cost much more and pay much less than the Sabres' coverage for fusion - those 5 teams are all deep-pocketed teams (Vegas, Rangers, Habs, Philly, etc.) who can live with up to a $50MM uninsured risk, minus whatever retention/bad contracts they get the Sabres to take back.

But the article @Thorny cited said: