nfreeman

It's an interesting test of the predictive power of the masses as to a question that 99% of the masses have close to zero knowledge -- and even in that scenario, the predictive power of the masses has proven to be surprisingly accurate.

It sure seems like the lines and pairs have been pretty stable other than injury adjustments. Of course, they’re off to a great start, so there hasn’t been much pressure to juggle them.

Well, per our recent conversation, I think this is another situation in which KA should be judged on the outcome. If Levi turns into Tom Barrasso, and Reinhart continues at his current good-but-not-great level, then Levi will be more valuable and KA should be credited, especially for making a silk purse from a sow’s ear.

FWIW, here is the SB Nation Vegas site's ranking of their top 25 players under age 25: No. 10: Dylan Coghlan No. 9: Kaedan Korczak No. 8: Jack Dugan No. 7: Lucas Elvenes No. 6: Nicolas Roy No. 5: Nicolas Hague No. 4: Peyton Krebs No. 3: Zach Whitecloud No. 2: Cody Glass No. 1: Alex Tuch

Well, I think a huge part of a GM's job is to predict outcomes based on available info and get enough of them -- especially the big ones, like drafting Josh Allen over Josh Rosen, or an Eichel trade -- right over time to produce good results. In this case, KA's analysis on pulling the trigger on a trade has to factor in a bunch of information, including medical prognostications, the trade market, what he thinks the trade market will look like in a month, the risk of losing a grievance, etc. It probably is unfair to credit/blame a GM for the outcome of a single big move, instead of the aggregate of a bunch of moves over time, but that's why they get paid millions of dollars to do a job that a million message board mouse potatoes would love to have.

This is more than fair and of a piece with holding KA accountable for the final results -- not just of a trade, but of everything -- which I totally agree with. At the same time, the other scenario has to be considered: the Sabres walk away with Theodore and Krebs in exchange for a diminished Eichel or an Eichel who looks great for 20 games but gets knocked out again when the ADR can't hold up the NHL grind. If that happens KA is totally vindicated.

Well, some of us have been of the opinion from the get-go that Eichel's value would be significantly reduced due to the injury. I think the injury, not KA's decision to move on from Jack (which is still only a working theory here, although I admit it's pretty persuasive), is and has always been the key factor in reducing his trade value -- so those IMHO are the circumstances under which it will have been a job well done by KA. You are of course correct that the proof of a Theodore trade, or any other trade, will be in the pudding.

If they get as good a player as Theodore back for Eichel, (i) it's a great result, and vindication for KA and (ii) they would be dumb IMHO to flip him for picks and prospects unless we're talking crown-jewel-#1C-type prospects.

As others have said upthread, and as I think most would agree, Deluca .500 would be a great season for this team and a huge surprise. IMHO they've gotten a substantial amount of puck luck in the last 2 games (TB and Anaheim), so it's possible that their current results are closer to the 2019 mirage than we'd like to admit. If they keep playing that way they will lose a bunch of 5-2 games and finish below NHL .500, let alone Deluca .500. Having said that, I'll note in response to @PerreaultForever's point about a run of injuries in their future that they've already lost their #1 or #2 C in Mitts, a top-pair defenseman in Joker and their #3C in Eakin. (Anyone can chuckle all he likes at those players having those designations, but they are the correct designations on this team.) They also lost Samuelsson, who might've forced his way into the lineup with a strong training camp. Those are 3 or 4 real injury losses.

Whoa.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen Asplund shoot a one-timer before, let alone score on one.

Anaheim had the better of it, to be sure. The Sabres got more of the puck luck they had vs TB or else they would’ve been trailing. They did come on after Zemgus’ goal though. Are DD and Rayzor in Anaheim or are they calling the game from Buffalo?

I've seen this "accumulate a bunch of defensemen and use them as trade assets" movie before. The ending was lousy.

Dude.

I don't think the Sabres are too worried about a grievance, as I think they're pretty confident they would win, but if Jack were to win the grievance, there would be no nullification of the CBA or lengthy litigation. The grievance process is part of the CBA, which almost certainly says that if the player wins the grievance, he gets his preferred outcome. The teams have agreed to this up front, so any lawsuit the Sabres would file would have to establish that Jack's grievance somehow departed from the grievance process agreed on in the CBA. FFS man. No one has a problem with you disagreeing with other people. The problem is your nasty edge, which is unnecessary and is ticking off more people by the day. Lighten up or keep quiet.

This is likely, but you do admit that so far they look much better than expected, yes? And that it's possible that they could be in the middle of the big blob of teams outside, say, the top 10 (i.e. in the middle of the bottom 22)? And maybe even that you are enjoying the games, which didn't seem possible 2 weeks ago? #smelltherosesbaby

My general understanding is that GAR (like WAR and some other fancystats) is a fancystat that is based on assembling other fancystats into a single "good player/bad player" number. As such, it inevitably incorporates assumptions upon assumptions and flaws upon flaws. Everyone's MMV, of course, but I think this type of stat is much less reliable a barometer than some of the "single aspect" fancystats.

Anaheim is not going to take the $50MM risk on Eichel regardless of what the Sabres would accept from them in trade.

That drive is beautiful by the way.

TB also whiffed on at least wide open nets from the doorstep. Not sustainable in the slightest. But they did gather themselves and take it to TB in the 3rd.

Except that you haven't provided any answers, or facts, or logic -- just descriptions of your general sense of things. I agree that going around further on this is pointless. All I will say is that calling someone a racist is a serious charge of a major character flaw, and that too many people casually throw it around like they're flipping a quarter into a wishing well.

Wow.

So, just to confirm -- you have zero examples of other guys who have done the stuff that EK has done and not been criticized, but you're standing by your accusations of racism? I'll ask again: is there a set of circumstances where criticizing Kane, or anyone who looks like him, wouldn't elicit an accusation of racism? Here's another question: would you want your sister or daughter to marry EK? Would you want him as a business partner? As for "all we have is the vax card" -- there are, as factual items, multiple unpaid debts (SIX lenders have sued him), and two hockey teams that we know about where his teammates have pushed hard for the team to get rid of him.

Well, I don't care as much as I did pre-wife, kids, job, mortgage, etc., but I care. I watch all the games, I'm pretty determined to go to a playoff game in the Ralph this year and I pay a lot more attention to podcasts, media coverage, the NFL generally, etc. In a sense it's actually better now because I take joy from the big wins and I don't get too agitated by the losses.

Well said. I would just add that it's natural as one ages and other matters rise in importance in one's life, for one's sports teams to matter a bit less. Of course, I still stand up and yell at the TV during every OT period and shootout. Your distancing decision reminds me a bit of my own with the Bills during the latter stages of Ralph's tenure. I finally realized that they as an organization had stopped trying to field a contending team, and Ralph was content to just sit back and accumulate $50MM or so per year in profits. I also realized that I could forgive a lot, but I couldn't forgive not trying. So I stopped watching most of the games and just paid much less attention. I was prepared to do the same with the Sabres this season, having become convinced by @dudacek that KA's roster decisions could be interpreted only as a tanking approach, which I would not be able to live with. While that still might prove to be the case, I now think that KA's plan is to put the structure of a winning organization in place, based on speed and esprit de corps, and then add in homegrown talent as it ripens. So I'm still in. Dude -- it's only been 4 wins, and this hostility needs to stop. Seconded, and I'll note that part of being a fan is enjoying kinship with other fans.