carpandean

:doh: :censored: :w00t:

Four possibilities: 1) Finish 30th pre or post-lottery: NFW we make that trade. 2) Finish 29th pre-lottery: do we trade 1/3 chance at McEichel for that? I doubt it. 3) Finish 29th post-lottery w/ Arizona/Buffalo win: See #1 4) Finish 29th post-lottery w/ any other winner: I'd be fine with something like that. #2 is the tough one. You would certainly require more value than the #3 pick after the lottery would command (else, you'd just wait), but it would still be a tough pill to swallow.

That's why I suggested a pre-lottery trade if we end up 29th: Arizona gets Sabres 2016 first-round pick plus either their 2015 first-round pick if they win the lottery or the Sabres' 2015 first-round pick, if they don't. Sabres get their own 2015 first-round pick if Arizona wins the lottery or the Coyotes' first-round pick if they don't. Result: Arizona gets another (likely) Austin Matthews pick, plus a 33.5% chance (their 20%, plus the Sabres' 13.5%) at McDavid and the third pick otherwise; Sabres get Eichel (20% chance that it's with their own pick; 80% with the Coyotes' pick.) Would be a heck of gamble for the Coyote's GM and perhaps it would take our other first-rounder (getting too rich for us?), but I'd take the certainty of it (definitely for one first-rounder, don't know about two.)

By "lose" do you mean win and by "win" do you mean lose? If we lose, then we stay four points behind with five to go. If we win, the lead is down to two points. Edmonton could officially be eliminated by earning a point more than we do.

After winning two in a row, it's looking less like they will fall below the Oilers, so the whole building (Sabres and Leafs fans, alike) may be cheering for them. Definitely predicting an ugly scene if the Sabres get a lead.

Yikes.

I'd like to think that fans would take the moral high ground if the team has already been eliminated, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Your only hope is that the Sabres clinch ahead of time.

The worst part is that whether or not they finish 30th (but especially if they don't), this is going to be ugly at home down the stretch. They have two home games before they could possibly clinch and almost certainly one more before they realistically could. The soonest that Arizona could clinch would be in their second-to-last game in Vancouver, so it very well all could come down to the final night at home against Pittsburgh ('Yotes at home against the Ducks). Can you imagine what a "must lose" (to get 30th) game would be like? Mike Weber didn't like fans cheering against them with 8 games left, how is he going to feel about it in the final game of a terrible season when 90% of the building would desperately want them to get blown out?

There are roughly 1.2 million people in the Buffalo area versus about 0.73 million in the Winnipeg area. There are about 1.2 million people in all of Manitoba. Toronto (6 million) is 1 1/2 hours away from Buffalo and there are another million people in Rochester (a little over an hour away), many of whom are Sabres (Amerks) fans.

Hopefully, we won't find out. :(

OK, trying to find something to make things feel better. Ask yourself this: what is the chance, now, that the Sabres hold on to 30th? Call that p. If we assume that Edmonton is out (even if they lose all 6 games after going 5-1-2 in their last 8, the Sabres would have to go 6-0-0, 5-1-0, 5-0-1 or 4-0-2 to pass them), then the chance of McEichel is: McE = p + 0.335(1-p) Optimist? p = 0.75 --> McE = 83% Neutral? p = 0.50 --> McE = 67% Pessimist? p = 0.25 --> McE = 50%

I know that we say that players won't tank, but those Coyotes players are making me wonder. I thought Gagner was supposed to be fast and talented. Saw him blow two or three opportunities because he looked like he didn't care to catch up with the puck.

Anyone else in Roch got a black screen on MSG w/ TWC?

I like the idea. "No goal; the puck was directed in with a high skate."

Personally, I have been talking about Eichel more, even calling it a race for Eichel with a bonus shot at McDavid. I am absolutely assuming that McDavid will not be a Sabres; it's beyond wishful thinking (counting on beating at best a 1 in 5 chance) to do otherwise. If he comes here, that's great, but it won't be weird to see him in another uniform. If we hold on to 30th and end up with Eichel, I'm expecting a bunch of idiots to laugh about how our tank didn't work, to which I will reply, "it worked exactly as expected."

I don't think that the league wants players kicking at the puck with their bladed boots while high price goalies are reaching their arms out for it.

Just trying to be as conservative as possible about our chances. Of course, they have excuses, too. Insurance policy? If the Sabres start winning, have Lindback fake an injury.

With so few games left, there's a big range of potential outcomes from tonight. Best case, Edmonton would be virtually eliminated from 30th (Sabres would have to go 6-0-0 and the Oilers 0-6-0 due to the tie-breakers, in which case they Sabres would almost certainly finish in 28th) and Arizona would be up 8 (minus the game-in-hand) with six games left. With the ROW tie-breaker, the Sabres would be able to go 4-2-0, 3-1-2 or 2-0-4 and still clinch even if Arizona loses out. Worst case, the Oilers get back within 7 and the 'Yotes would be within 4 (minus the game-in-hand), meaning things would come right down to the wire. It would be down to 2-4-0, 1-3-2 or 0-2-4 in their last six to clinch with Arizona losing out and the Coyotes could reach the 30th spot in the teams' 79th games (they could be tied on points after the 78th, but Arizona would have more ROWs.) The Sabres still face Toronto (checked out), Islanders (not playing well), Blackhawks (trap game for them?), Carolina (not great), Blue Jackets (hot lately, but not great for the season) and the Peguins (will they be playing for anything or looking forward to the first round?) Arizona's opponents are a little tougher: Sharks (home-and-home), Flames, Canucks and Ducks.

That was in reference to a post the other night that got a bit of a response. I (somewhat) jokingly said that I was still nervous about Carolina (eliminated later that night) and Toronto passing us. I will be nervous about the remaining two right up until they or we are eliminated.

OK, I'm not nervous about the Maple Leafs (other than the lottery, of course) anymore. We now have a maximum points of 62 with a max ROW of 19, below Toronto's current 62 points and 24 ROW. Bottom three finish guaranteed.

I'll admit it, I was firmly clenched for the whole last half of that period. Now that it's over, I can say that I liked the push back and the whole effort by the boys, but only now that it's over. ;)

Yup.

Man, I clicked on the Yotes game and it was 1-0 Arizona with 12 minutes left. Less than three minutes later, it's 1-3. And the replay showed that Crosby pushed it in with his skate, but they still allowed it under review.

We have 8 games left and 48 points, so right now our max is 64. Arizona has 54 points (with a game going on right now.) If they win this one and the one against us, then they would have 58 points. If we lose tonight and the head-to-head, both in regulation, then we would have 48 with 6 games left for a max of 60. The soonest that we can clinch in April Fools Day against the Leafs (a loss would take us to 58 max and one less ROW than the Yotes could get.) What could go wrong there? ;) Now, want to know when the earliest that Arizona could clinch is? :P

Douchiest move by a prospect ever.