News Alert: Sabres Accept Briere Ruling

[Taro T]

DeLuca -- Sorry, but I'll go on record as disagreeing with all four of your predictions here. Having locked up Max, their leading scorer from last year, for 3 years at a fair price given the market, there is no way they are going to trade him.

 

Regarding Danny, they were unequivocal in the announcement today that they were not going to trade him. It would be a terrible move for team morale to make that announcement and then trade him (unless they got a true star in return, but then it wouldn't be a cost-cutting move, which I think is why you expect him or Max to be traded).

 

Regarding JP, this is the one you are most likely to be right about. However, he's too good of a player to just let go for nothing. Although they did this with Miro, the circumstances were much different -- Miro was much more expensive, and there was much more economic uncertainty around the league -- meaning there was a much greater risk of being stuck with Miro. I think they will sign JP and then trade him in the next 6 weeks or so.

 

Finally, Lindy and Darcy both like Mair quite a bit (as do I, but that is beside the point). He's big, fast, physical and plays with passion. He also isn't going to cost much. Having lost size up front already with the departures of Grier and Pyatt, and with the probable departure of JP via trade, they aren't, IMHO, going to give up any more size by letting Mair go.

n,

 

Nice post.

 

I didn't hear the announcement about signing Briere, so I'm not as fully convinced that Danny is back for the whole year, but if Darcy was "unequivocable" then I guess they will pick other avenues to get under the cap.

 

I agree with the rest of it.

[apuszczalowski]

I didn't hear the announcement about signing Briere, so I'm not as fully convinced that Danny is back for the whole year, but if Darcy was "unequivocable" then I guess they will pick other avenues to get under the cap.

I didn't hear the announcement, but all the reports I have read all say that Darcy said he will not be looking at trading Briere right now, so it seems like he will be with the team at the start of this season

[deluca67]

DeLuca -- Sorry, but I'll go on record as disagreeing with all four of your predictions here. Having locked up Max, their leading scorer from last year, for 3 years at a fair price given the market, there is no way they are going to trade him.

 

Regarding Danny, they were unequivocal in the announcement today that they were not going to trade him. It would be a terrible move for team morale to make that announcement and then trade him (unless they got a true star in return, but then it wouldn't be a cost-cutting move, which I think is why you expect him or Max to be traded).

 

Regarding JP, this is the one you are most likely to be right about. However, he's too good of a player to just let go for nothing. Although they did this with Miro, the circumstances were much different -- Miro was much more expensive, and there was much more economic uncertainty around the league -- meaning there was a much greater risk of being stuck with Miro. I think they will sign JP and then trade him in the next 6 weeks or so.

 

Finally, Lindy and Darcy both like Mair quite a bit (as do I, but that is beside the point). He's big, fast, physical and plays with passion. He also isn't going to cost much. Having lost size up front already with the departures of Grier and Pyatt, and with the probable departure of JP via trade, they aren't, IMHO, going to give up any more size by letting Mair go.

 

The Sabres will not and can not go into the season with a $40+ million payroll. You have to move somebody. Miller and the six D are staying put. That's how they like to build their team. That leaves the forward ranks. So who's contract goes? If you go by 'return on investment' then Briere's bloated contract would be the first to go. He's not worth $5 and he'll get you the most in return via trade. If not Briere? Then you have to start looking for combinations of players to move. You want to talk about messing with team chemistry. Say Dumont, Mair and Biron all get dealt. The Sabres can't afford to accept NHL contracts in return so your talking picks and prospects. Is Briere better then Dumont, Mair and Biron combined? Not unless you are medicated. ;)

[nfreeman]

The Sabres will not and can not go into the season with a $40+ million payroll. You have to move somebody. Miller and the six D are staying put. That's how they like to build their team. That leaves the forward ranks. So who's contract goes? If you go by 'return on investment' then Briere's bloated contract would be the first to go. He's not worth $5 and he'll get you the most in return via trade. If not Briere? Then you have to start looking for combinations of players to move. You want to talk about messing with team chemistry. Say Dumont, Mair and Biron all get dealt. The Sabres can't afford to accept NHL contracts in return so your talking picks and prospects. Is Briere better then Dumont, Mair and Biron combined? Not unless you are medicated. ;)

 

I agree with you that a payroll above $40 million is not realistic. Right now, including JP and Danny, we're at $37.7 million (actual payroll, not cap hit -- see http://members.shaw.ca/cdelosreyes/). This is without Mair, Miller and Kalinin. If we assume:

 

Mair -- $700K

Kalinin -- $1.7 million

Miller -- $1.5 million

 

that puts us at $41.6 million. Unload JP for picks/prospects and we're down to $38.7 million. Unload Marty and replace him with a $700K backup and we save another $1.5 million, so we're down to $37.2 million. That's a lot more than our payroll was last year, but I think it's within the range of what Tom G is prepared to spend -- otherwise we wouldn't have seen all of the moves we've seen so far.

 

I think everyone knows that Marty is dying for a chance to start somewhere, so I don't think trading him will hurt team chemistry. As far as JP, he'll be missed, but the guys understand that it's a business. I think unloading Briere would hurt much more.

 

I think we're definitely keeping Mair. Not sure why you think we'd unload Mair to save money -- he's not making that much above the minimum.

 

Just my opinion.

[BetweenThePipes00]

 

I agree with you that a payroll above $40 million is not realistic. Right now, including JP and Danny, we're at $37.7 million (actual payroll, not cap hit -- see http://members.shaw.ca/cdelosreyes/). This is without Mair, Miller and Kalinin. If we assume:

 

Mair -- $700K

Kalinin -- $1.7 million

Miller -- $1.5 million

 

that puts us at $41.6 million. Unload JP for picks/prospects and we're down to $38.7 million. Unload Marty and replace him with a $700K backup and we save another $1.5 million, so we're down to $37.2 million. That's a lot more than our payroll was last year, but I think it's within the range of what Tom G is prepared to spend -- otherwise we wouldn't have seen all of the moves we've seen so far.

 

I think everyone knows that Marty is dying for a chance to start somewhere, so I don't think trading him will hurt team chemistry. As far as JP, he'll be missed, but the guys understand that it's a business. I think unloading Briere would hurt much more.

 

I think we're definitely keeping Mair. Not sure why you think we'd unload Mair to save money -- he's not making that much above the minimum.

 

Just my opinion.

 

The only problem with all that is I can't imagine Miller playing for $1.5 million. If Biron is still on the team, Miller can say "Why should I play for less than my backup again?" If Biron has been dealt, it's "I'm your only option, you need to do better."

 

My guess is Miller will be making around $2.5 million this season and if they are lucky it will be part of a 3-year deal like Connolly's with increases. If they go year-to-year with him and he has a big year (which he needs to or all this is moot because they will suck), they'll get killed in future arbitration.

 

So I agree with most of what you say, but I think one more guy at least needs to go because Miller will make more.

[Taro T]

The only problem with all that is I can't imagine Miller playing for $1.5 million. If Biron is still on the team, Miller can say "Why should I play for less than my backup again?" If Biron has been dealt, it's "I'm your only option, you need to do better."

 

My guess is Miller will be making around $2.5 million this season and if they are lucky it will be part of a 3-year deal like Connolly's with increases. If they go year-to-year with him and he has a big year (which he needs to or all this is moot because they will suck), they'll get killed in future arbitration.

 

So I agree with most of what you say, but I think one more guy at least needs to go because Miller will make more.

I think Ryan will get a 3 year deal averaging ~$2.5-$2.8, but year 1 would be for about $1.6. He doesn't have any leverage right now as he is an RFA for 2 more years.

[PASabreFan]

You guys crack me up. You just do. It's Christmas morning, you're sitting at the top of the steps, you see all the presents under the tree and you still think Santa is going to come back and take them away. Darcy says he's not trading Danny! Pass the eggnog. No, the spiked eggnog.

[nfreeman]

You guys crack me up. You just do. It's Christmas morning, you're sitting at the top of the steps, you see all the presents under the tree and you still think Santa is going to come back and take them away. Darcy says he's not trading Danny! Pass the eggnog. No, the spiked eggnog.

 

Hey man, I'm with you on this one. I think we are not trading Danny. I think he's going to have another really good year and we are going to break with previous policy and try to lock up both him and Drury. With those 2, a healthy Connolly and a consistent Miller, we're strong up the middle and in the hunt for the cup EVERY year.

 

So save me some of the eggnog.

 

And what's with the avatar?

[PASabreFan]

That's my pet skunk.

[Bmwolf21]

I agree with you that a payroll above $40 million is not realistic. Right now, including JP and Danny, we're at $37.7 million (actual payroll, not cap hit -- see http://members.shaw.ca/cdelosreyes/). This is without Mair, Miller and Kalinin. If we assume:

 

Mair -- $700K

Kalinin -- $1.7 million

Miller -- $1.5 million

 

that puts us at $41.6 million. Unload JP for picks/prospects and we're down to $38.7 million. Unload Marty and replace him with a $700K backup and we save another $1.5 million, so we're down to $37.2 million. That's a lot more than our payroll was last year, but I think it's within the range of what Tom G is prepared to spend -- otherwise we wouldn't have seen all of the moves we've seen so far.

 

I think everyone knows that Marty is dying for a chance to start somewhere, so I don't think trading him will hurt team chemistry. As far as JP, he'll be missed, but the guys understand that it's a business. I think unloading Briere would hurt much more.

 

I think we're definitely keeping Mair. Not sure why you think we'd unload Mair to save money -- he's not making that much above the minimum.

 

Just my opinion.

 

 

Interesting points, but since the cap hit factors in the average salary for the length of the deal, why would we care what our actual payroll $ is, when we should be looking at salary cap hit? If I am understanding it correctly, let's say Miller signs a 3-yr deal for $8M, with escalating years ($1.5, $2.8 & $3.7, for the sake of arguement); his cap hit is the average of the 3-years, which would be $2.67M, not his $1.5M actual salary in year 1. Based on the link/chart nfreeman provided, in that hypothetical scenario, our cap number (assuming they pick up JP) jumps to $43.674M, without Dmitri or Mair added yet.

 

That changes the dynamics of the cap situation dramatically, and the cap # is what will force us to make moves, such as trading players like Marty, JP, Danny (I know, Darcy said we're not gonna trade him, but I don't think he is untouchable) Max or Ales. We definitely can't go into the season over the cap, and we can't "just squeeze under" b/c that will prevent us from making any moves for injuries, trades, etc.

 

I'm not picking at anyone in particular, I just can't seem to get a full grasp on this cap system. Dave has been very patient in explaining some of the nuances of it, but the problem is, I think there are a whole lot of things we won't understand, since none of us are actual GMs/Presidents (except you, Larry - we know you're out there...) and none of us have an entire accounting/legal department to help decipher all this.

 

I guess this just means Darcy's "easy" work (re-signing the RFAs) is almost done, and now comes the fun part of trying to fit the payroll under the cap and not destroy the forward ranks or D in the process.

[nfreeman]

Interesting points, but since the cap hit factors in the average salary for the length of the deal, why would we care what our actual payroll $ is, when we should be looking at salary cap hit? If I am understanding it correctly, let's say Miller signs a 3-yr deal for $8M, with escalating years ($1.5, $2.8 & $3.7, for the sake of arguement); his cap hit is the average of the 3-years, which would be $2.67M, not his $1.5M actual salary in year 1. Based on the link/chart nfreeman provided, in that hypothetical scenario, our cap number (assuming they pick up JP) jumps to $43.674M, without Dmitri or Mair added yet.

 

 

Respectfully, I think we need to care about what the actual payroll is because that's what is driving the Sabres' decisions. Yes, we need to be under the cap, but that won't be an issue. As Deluca said earlier there is no way we are going to have a $40+ million payroll.

 

TG may be "loosening the purse strings" as many have urged him to do, but he's not going to go much above $37-$38 million. He has no interest in a franchise that loses $7 million - $10 million per year -- which is where we might be at a $44 million payroll.

 

That's why I am pretty confident both JP and Marty are going to be traded. It's a quick $5.2 million (less replacement costs) payroll reduction for our backup goalie and a good but not great winger.

[Bmwolf21]

Good point about losing $$ with a higher payroll, although no one from the Sabres has confirmed where their target payroll is (unless I missed some sort of official announcement.)

 

We all seem to agree (myself included) that Marty should be/will be traded, but who is going to take him now? We can't simply give him away for the sake of giving him away; we have no backup, no one in Rochester, and of course Ryan isn't yet signed. Realisitically, a package of Marty & pick a forward (JP, Max, Ales) should be enough to garner a respectable backup and a young forward in return; but I think Darcy might have painted himself into a corner by saying they won't trade Danny. Looking to lose some payroll? Well there's $5M right there; pairing him with Marty or Max could save you even more $$ (barring replacements, of course.)

 

I just don't know. Darcy is going to earn his salary in the coming weeks, and no matter which way he goes, there will surely be plenty of naysayers and second-guessers bemoaning his every move...

[apuszczalowski]

Why can't we go into the season with a $44 million payroll?

 

If TG will allow it and pay for it, and they are below the salary cap, why can't they? You all seem to care about TG's money more then he does.

[Bmwolf21]

Who says we care more about TG's $ than he does? We're just trying to figure out how THIS team, the way it is signed right now, and with two core players yet to be signed, will fit under the cap and the team's self-admitted payroll budget (although no one knows exactly what that payroll range is.)

 

As for why we can't go into the season with a $44M payroll, well see Dave's post at the top of the page.

 

With JP's award, the Sabres are close to $38MM in actual outlays this season with 4 players left to add to the mix and are above $41MM in salary cap $'s. The 4 players to add to the mix will cost ~$4.5MM and if any are signed long term will probably count $5+ against the salary cap.

 

The salary cap is only $44MM. The Sabres as currently assembled WILL exceed the salary cap by spending "$40MM or so" on payroll. That is a no-no in the new NHL. Something has to give.

 

The way I understand it, if we go in with a $44M payroll (actual number) our cap number would be around $46-48M - well over the cap. If we went into the season with a $44M cap number, you better pray no one gets hurt at all - we wouldn't even be able to recall someone from Rochester who isn't on the payroll right now. Basically you would be asking the 22/23 guys you start the season with to play all 82 games + playoffs, unless you dumped some salary during the year.

 

Dave will probably correct me on that, as he should, but hey, whatever... ;)