Sabres are 8th for 5 on 5 xGoal%

[JoeSchmoe]

Problem is they're 23rd for actual Goal%.

They are the 2nd worst team in the league for 5 on 5 goaltending (goals against above expected) so until that gets better it'll be tough to improve.

[inkman]

Just now, JoeSchmoe said:

Problem is they're 23rd for actual Goal%.

They are the 2nd worst team in the league for 5 on 5 goaltending (goals against above expected) so until that gets better it'll be tough to improve.

Frankly, their goaltending, while being slightly improved over last season is still below league average.  Until that’s resolved, this team is booty cheeks. 

[tom webster]

2 minutes ago, inkman said:

Frankly, their goaltending, while being slightly improved over last season is still below league average.  Until that’s resolved, this team is booty cheeks. 

The problem is that there are about ten teams looking to improve their goaltending, fifteen teams learning to live with what they have and seven, maybe less, have franchise goalies. Their best hope is one of the guys in the system, either already here or in the minors, turning out to be that guy.

[Sidc3000]

Shooting directly into the chest of the goalie gets you a ***** ton of shots but you’ll never score and that’s what they’re doing.  On top of that I would love to see if there is stats on how many shots go wide and enter the Sabres stand with that. 
 

[JoeSchmoe]

26 minutes ago, tom webster said:

The problem is that there are about ten teams looking to improve their goaltending, fifteen teams learning to live with what they have and seven, maybe less, have franchise goalies. Their best hope is one of the guys in the system, either already here or in the minors, turning out to be that guy.

Hopefully Ellis can do it. He's the only guy with any runway left.

[Pimlach]

26 minutes ago, Sidc3000 said:

Shooting directly into the chest of the goalie gets you a ***** ton of shots but you’ll never score and that’s what they’re doing.  On top of that I would love to see if there is stats on how many shots go wide and enter the Sabres stand with that. 
 

All except for Tuch, right?  Don't all of his shots go wide?   Isn't that one of the many knocks you have on the guy? 

[tom webster]

1 minute ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Hopefully Ellis can do it. He's the only guy with any runway left.

In the short term yes, but they have to commit to one guy. Teams like Carolina have learned that if you don’t have “that guy,” you ride the consistent guy and learn to overcome his shortcomings.

[inkman]

14 minutes ago, tom webster said:

In the short term yes, but they have to commit to one guy. Teams like Carolina have learned that if you don’t have “that guy,” you ride the consistent guy and learn to overcome his shortcomings.

If Ellis flames out than it may be time to see if Levi can be the guy.  It’s probably too much of a mental hurdle for Kevyn to figure out how he can do that with 3 goalies already on the roster but it’s probably time to cut bait with at least one of them. We all want it to be UPL, I just don’t see a buyer out there even at 50% salary retention which we know Daddy Wantsbucks isn’t fond of. 

Edited 45 minutes ago by inkman

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, tom webster said:

In the short term yes, but they have to commit to one guy. Teams like Carolina have learned that if you don’t have “that guy,” you ride the consistent guy and learn to overcome his shortcomings.

But that's one more thing this crew watches but don't get right.  Brind-Amour doesn't ride a goalie until he loses a game and then run with the other guy until he loses.  He picks the guy he expects will get them the W in the harder games and then spells him in the easier ones; and if one starts playing particularly well or particularly poorly, the determination of which guy will get them the tougher win changes.

They really don't seem to twig to the WHY of what successful teams do.  They get the WHAT, but because they don't get the WHY, they can't replicate that success.  One of my classmates a long time ago in a statistics class, who simply didn't get it, when seeing the grade they earned on a test complained "but I followed all the steps."  No, you didn't, because you put it down to a recipe that needed to be followed exactly when it fact it was a set of guidelines that had a lot of if/thens in it.  It isn't do 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and then profit; but rather if A then B, if C then if D then E and if not D then F and if not C then G and if not A but C then H.  

Personally expect Ruff understands that, but isn't going to do the X's and O's at this point in his journey and the guys he has working for him can't do the X's and O's at this level because they simply don't understand the WHY of what they're trying to do.

Right now, in net, still believe UPL has the highest ceiling but he also has the lowest floor and too often he plays closer to his floor than the ceiling.  Lyon is calm and can get in a groove, but giving him 1 game every 4 weeks will never see him in that groove again.  Ellis is an unknown, but he's good at squaring up and then finding a way to get a body part in front of the puck but he still can resquare himself pretty quickly.

Personally, would be treating Lyon and Ellis like the Canes treated Gerber and Ward back in '06, and throw UPL in every now and then (but sooner than 4 weeks later) and see if he can recapture that lightning in a bottle he had for a couple of months so long ago.  It makes sense to trade one of them, but don't want Adams being the architect of that deal.