That Aud Smell

Forecast discussion: Dry conditions are expected for Saturday night through most of Monday as an area of high pressure and ridge builds into the region. Monday afternoon into Tuesday still remains uncertain as a large trough to the west tries to undercut the ridge moving across the CONUS associated with an Omega block. Guidance has been back and forth with if the trough and a weak low at the sfc and aloft will move close enough to the region to increase the potential for some showers for later Monday afternoon. This also would increase cloud potential as well. Current forecast for Monday afternoon bring slight chance for showers into far western NY, with broken cloud cover over WNY and decreasing cloud cover to the northeast. Being 5+ days out, a lot can change either way. +++ Fingers remain crossed.

Sunday looks pleasant. The NWS is holding steady on its forecast for Monday. Edit: Faaaaahhhk. Fahk.

This article has a terrific review of clouds relative to solar eclipse events. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/03/26/clouds-could-block-the-april-2024-solar-eclipse-forecast-guide/72934623007/ And this graphic is spiffy. If we're getting high clouds, that won't be so bad.

Excerpt from NWS Forecast Discussion today: At this range however, uncertainty is very high in the amount of total cloud cover and how it will be structured, especially across Western NY. Long-range guidance suggests increasing mid and/or high clouds* increasing from west to east through the day. *"High Clouds" -- These clouds have bases between 16,500 and 45,000 feet in the mid latitudes. At this level they are composed of primarily of ice crystals. Some clouds at this level are cirrus, cirrocumulus, and cirrostratus +++ Notably, I don't see mention of stratocumulus clouds (nor, certainly, nimbostratus).

If present, traditional low-lying cumulus clouds would most likely dissipate during the full solar eclipse. https://www.space.com/total-solar-eclipse-low-level-clouds-vanish Based on listening to and reading stuff from meteorologists, I offer the following: The big cloud enemies here would be nimbostratus (which are generally rain clouds) and stratocumulus. Nimbostratus would be the worst. It doesn't look like we're getting those, though. The clouds that we've been talking about here - stratocumulus - are the ones that just "show up" sometimes around the Great Lakes. It's got something to do with air temps, water temps, wind direction, and such. Stratocumulus clouds don't bring rain - they just obscure the sun. If stratocumulus do show up, there'd still be a chance that they break up in spots and allow some viewing. Fingers crossed. Hope for the best.

I'm old enough to remember calling the zoo on April 1st -- getting someone who actually answered the phone, "hello, this is the zoo" -- asking to speak to Mr. Lyons -- getting some traction (maybe they were just humouring us?) -- and thinking that was the funniest thing ever.

NWS nerds weigh in, preliminarily.

gah. sorry.

From the local NWS office's "forecast discussion": While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. Model and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, however it is FAR too early to forecast cloud cover with any confidence or reliability.

Lake Erie is generally a wonderful thing to have on our doorsteps. But even with model forecasts now all agreeing that there will be a ridge of high pressure in place for our region on April 8th (seems like good news!), that great lake still has the power to manufacture clouds. Years ago, I had regular opportunities to make proverbial small talk (the weather!) with a group of people who'd transplanted to Buffalo from different parts of America, different parts of the world. They were all doing graduate work at UB. The two things that they griped about most regarding Buffalo's weather: (1) how humidity made cold temps more difficult to endure (something I'd never realized was the case) and (2) how frequently our region gets clouds that don't do anything (i.e., rain or snow). As to the latter, these folks would regularly say: Where I come from, cloudy skies generally mean that you're getting some weather. But not so here. (I was also struck by how they didn't complain about the snow.)

they're apparently gonna do an encore "between two stalls" segment when they celebrate skinner's 1000th game. there is something so on-the-nose cruel about the sabres' needing to celebrate this guy's 1000th regular season game in the wake of missing out on the playoffs for the 13th time in a row. the team and player are a perfect match, it appears. shoutout to those stalwart fans who will advocate for the guy based on #fancystats (or just goals scored?) . I generally appreciate #fancystats and their utility. If #fancystats do, in fact, say that Skinner is a good and valuable top-6 NHL forward, then Skinner would be the case that proves that there are fundamental flaws (or, at least, limitations) therein.

Choices are too binary. You need a blend. A winning blend.

Let’s not take away his agency. Inky has left, for now. Understandable, albeit regrettable.

Had (have!) no idea what the movie was, nor that it was Dave Grohl. I went searching for a "get behind me, satan" gif (which I did find), but could not resist the one I chose.

Jesus Christmas on a Popsicle Stick. Please don’t do this to me.

I think you're tilting at windmills, partner. Yet another failed regular season will do that to a fella, I reckon.

Who’s been brainwashed? You recently chirped an admin for thinking poorly of posters. You’re arguably doing the same for Sabre fans. Fans can be informed and take solace where it can be found. I love Quinn’s game. I’m glad he’s back.

I don't get this perspective at all. In any case: Just don't click through on the thread, man.

In the days to come, at least I have one of those events to look forward to in my lifetime.

Maybe? It seems like there would be a lot of variables there (bearing when the ship lost power, the size of the channel being navigated, currents, maybe tides). The thing that does seem flukey is that the vessel lost power and control so soon after leaving port. Wtf?! But, if a cargo ship of that size were to lose power in those kinds of waters (close quarters), it strikes me that a catastrophe of some kind is fairly likely (even if it's just a big property loss).

Aggregator of mock drafts has moved back towards the Bills' most likely picks at 28 being WR, then Edge, then Edge again. Not sure what positions/names would appear if the site listed more than the top 3 mocked choices.

It's ... cozy in this world of 90 points or fewer.

Well, now you're onto contentions other than the ones I was debating. I understand you as saying that the player's being rushed back and his rehab is being mismanaged (and his future imperiled?) in service of trying to get this team close to 91 points and in an effort to save the jobs of KA and DG. I can't get there. And if that were somehow the case, I'd probably have to light myself on fire.