
EM88
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Everything posted by EM88
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It is not as easy as a yes or no question. The first round pick is just one of many young assets this team has. So is the first pick the following year. Kulich. Rosen. Levi. Helenius. Östlund. If I am going to trade my first overall pick and not protect it, the return better be very good. If you are putting some kind of lottery protection on that pick or you are talking one of the other prospects, than sure, make that trade. If you get someone that is going to help this team right now, then they should trade a future asset for it.
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Pettersson is much better player than Cozens, but his production is way, way down and he cost a lot of money. He played 62 games last year before signing. In those 62 games he had 29 goals and 46 assists. After signing, including the playoffs until now he also has played 62 games. 14 goals and 32 assists. It is not only that, he currently has 2 goals in his last 12 games. You cannot afford that slump in production from a guy in his prime late-20s who is making that much money. He is a big chance at $11.6m until his mid 30's. Right now he is giving them Casey Mittlestadt like production at double the price. As much as I think Cozens hurts this team, I am not sure you trade him for a player who is producing only slightly better but is getting paid so much. If that trade was there, I would do it. I like Bryams game quite a bit, but I would still do it, providing you get a D-man back from Vancouver that is a decent, NHL level guy. Cozens off this team with Pettersson centering Benson and Quinn or Peterka? That is interesting.
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I tend to agree. The power play is a function of a few things. One of them is random chance. Take a look on a busy night in the NHL at all the powerplay goals. Sometime nearly half of them are on funny bounces of the boards, unplanned deflections, or getting knocked in around a scrum. The rest of the powerplay lies more in how the defending team plays defense than your own offensive structure. The key to that may be do you do enough, or do you have the players on the ice, that will encourage the defending unit to break structure? To do that I think you need accurate passers who have a good hockey awareness, who can pass and move the puck quickly at times without losing control of it. The Sabres do not seem to have those type of players, or at least they are not playing that way right now. Other than that, have accurate shooters on the net and guys with hockey sense. Don't shoot the puck into the shinpads of the defender just because the crowd is yelling SHOOT! Or do not cut to the center of the ice and take a shot without regard to where your teammates are just because you have that 0.5 second to get off the shot yourself. This one is the reason they need to get Cozens off the Powerplay. There are some powerplays where if you isolate on him, he does things that seemingly single-handedly sink the Sabres powerplay.
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The majority of his micromanagement comes in 2 forms: Not paying guys/spending to the cap when good vets were needed alongside the young developing guys, and Terry Pegula actually input into roster construction in a way that he does it so more as a fan than as a skilled, experienced hockey guy. A fantasy league hockey GM in essense. He has his hockey department and GM do the leg work just like the guys who publish fantasy ratings on a website do the deep dives, and Pegula takes that, along with likeing what he sees in a player, and that is the limit of his input and skill. There was a very long post by someone else a week ago that put it well. The Sabres were in position to bring in some very good vets here, better than guys like Erik Johnson, but they would have had to likely 'overpay' to do so. Having Cozens on a line with 2 good vets, not guys like Tyson Jost, or having both Power and Dahlin the past 2 years playing with 2 good Vet D-men would have helped their development. Its not the GM that says he doesn't want to spend money, it has been well documented that Pegula put caps on spending, an owner cap the Sabres followed, not a league cap. I think Cozens is a bad overall hockey player. Cozens does not know how to play defense. Cozens is not clutch in anyway. Cozens makes mistakes that cost goals and seems to have no ability or desire to set up his teammates in the offensive zone. So why is he getting paid $7m long term? He only had goals to 'earn' that deal for half a season before it was offered to him, and he had no-where near a complete game? There is a lot of smoke and some fire if you look back into that deal being signed that Pegula was behind it. There are other posters on this board that have documented that with quotes and/or article links in the past.
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Cozens is now playing close to like I expected him to. He is on pace for 15 goal, 35-40 points with being terrible on the powerplay and Penalty killing and bad defensively. I expected him to score about 20 goals and have 45-50 points, as well as being terrible on the powerplay and penalty killing and bad defensively. That is not too much of a difference. The issue with Dylan Cozens is most people, apparently the Sabres organization itself, seems to overlook him being bad on the Powerplay, bad on the penalty kill, and being bad defensively. Those things are not new, that is who he is and that is why, despite his draft pedigree, he is just not a good player overall. At this point I do not think there is any 'saving him'. Even if he scores 25-30 it will not help the team all that much if he doesn't improve his all around game. He has shown few signs of that happening, or a willingness or effort to do so in my eyes.
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Tage is playing at a 50+ goal, +13 plus/minus pace. Shooting 18.8%. I'm pretty sure that not only matches his 'career' year, but beats it in those metrics. Beats last year, beats 3 years ago, beats 4 years ago, etc.
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The owner is top of my list.
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Longest Sabres losing streaks of all time in their 54 year history: 18 games in 2021. Coach: Ralph Krueger. GM: Kevyn Adams. Owner: Terry Pegula 14 games in 2014-15. Coach: Ted Nolan. GM: Tim Murray. Owner: Terry Pegula 10 games 2014 (2 seasons) Coach: Ted Nolan. GM: Tim Murray. Owner Terry Pegula 9 games current: Coach: Lindy Ruff. GM: Kevyn Adams. Owner Terry Pegula 8 games 2022: Coach: Don Granato. GM Kevyn Adams. Owner, Terry Pegula 8 games in 2019: Coach: Phil Housley. GM Jason Botterill. Owner, Terry Pegula 8 games in 2003: Coach: Lindy Ruff. GM: Darcy Regier. Owner, N/A (NHL ownership, team in bankruptcy) In 54 years, those are the 7 worst losing streaks this team has one gone though, all but one (the one where the team was coming out of bankruptcy) in the last 10-11 or so years. One very common thread among them: 5 different coaches. 4 different GM's. ONE single owner.
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It seems like who is part of the problem should also be part of the solution. If a player is underperforming his contract or expectations, that is the problem. The solution is for that player to start to play better. For me I wish I could get 8 votes and put 4 of them on Cozens. It is not about him getting back to his 30 goal production of 2 seasons ago. Its not about worrying about trading him because what if he does better with someone else. He's just a bad player now. He is a poor shooter. He drags down the Powerplay. He is the least discipline penalty killer. He is quite simply the worst decision making forward without the puck I have ever seen. This team is better the less he plays, or with him not on the team with any useful piece coming in return. Waiting and hoping isn't going to change most of those things. This is who he is.
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With regard to your first line bolded above: I think the issue some of us have is, what kind of talent is he? Is he really that talented that the Sabres can not afford to lose him? We, as fans, and as coaches/administrators may have been 'duped' by one season he had where a single season or results masked his shortcomings, and we convinced ourselves he is more talented than he actually is. Talent is Speed. Talent is Agility. Talent is shot accuracy. Talent is size. Talent is effort. But talent is also hockey sense or hockey intelligence. Cozens seems to be lacking hockey sense and hockey intelligence. Not just a little lacking, but rather he is really, really bad at it. The problem with hockey intelligence is, it is the one 'skill' that if it is lacking, it can override all of the others, and in some ways make it worse. The thing that may or may not support this theory even more is he seems to fade in big situations. The number of his goals that are game tying or game winning is one of the lowest on the team. He is awful on the power play. Playing under pressure, It seems players that thrive under pressure are the ones that are the mentall strongest, the ones that think the game the best and do not revert to bad habits. That is exactly the trait Cozens lacks. If Speed and effort are a skill you have, but you do not have the hockey intelligence to be aware of the ice around you, it can turn those positives into negatives. You go way too deep into the offensive zone on a forcheck for example because you want to be aggressive and think your speed will take you there. You throw the body because you want to be physical, but in a situation where you should have turned away because the puck is going back up the ice. Lot of other examples. He just might not 'see' the game well. He might just be lacking the ability to process the game at more than a singular level. Cozens may be a person that when he is out there skating, adrenaline flowing, his mind may shut off in terms of the nuance of hockey and he just becomes that guy who chases the puck like a dog chases a squirrel. The only talent I see him having that over-rides his lack of awareness is that he does get into the tough areas of the ice, he is able to generate his own chances in front of the net to shoot from. But the more I watch and the more I am aware of that, I think many of those shots he gets credit for (Goals expected I think the stat is), come at the expense of chances for his linemates who may be better shooters than he is. Fifth year in the NHL. Turning 24 in a month and a half. Over 300 career NHL games. International play as a pro. Numerous coaches. In the past 5 years he is 2nd only to Tage in terms of ice time among forwards, and he is only behind him by 52 total minutes over 5 years. I do not think it is a learning issue anymore. I think his brain just doesn't process the game. Just like the NFL, you can have a QB that has all the skills: The arm. The mobility. The tenacity. The drive to win. But if that guy doesn't know how to read a defense, or he can't scan the field to see where all of his teamates are as quick as other QBs, that guy is going to be a bust. Does it not seem like that is what is likely happening with Cozens? Many QB's were drafted as high prospects. Some even showed flashes that they could be great. But if they lacked that high level to process the game, eventually they were shown to be busts. Some fans convinced themselves based on a game, a half season, or even a season that wasn't the case. "He did it once he can do it again, he has talent!" Some coaches would even see that talent and play that guy too long. Owners would see the talent and see the money they are paying them and not want to make a change. But in the end, sometime you can't fall back on the excuse that he has talent if that talent is incomplete or just does not translate to the game. Best case scenario he scores 25-30 goals for you, but that won't be every year. But when he does that, he isn't making his linemates better, he is hanging out his wingers and his d-men to dry many times positionally. The likely scenario is he is an 18-24 goal scorer for you while still hanging his wingers and D-men out to dry and being one of the more 'minus' players on your team. He may have raw physical talent, but if he isn't processing the game, that 'mental' talent, the mental ability to read the game that is missing, that is might more than erase his raw skill, and actually make him a worse overall player than someone with 'lesser' physical talents. Cozens now has 6 goals in the last 19 games. He is scoring again, his shooting percentage is back up over the past month. But he still does not look like a good overall hockey player. He does not make his teammates better. He is dragging down the Power play. And most importantly, he is not helping the team win. That to me is not a player who is really talented and is just in a slump. That are signs of a player who just is not, and never has been a complete player that you want on your team long term.
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One of my issues with Cozen is that his decision making is poor. So poor that it almost seems like in any situation he makes the incorrect decision on the ice. I am not sure more tenacity changes that. When on the forcheck he often goes in too deep chasing the puck or trying to make a hit in the very moments he should be laying back because whether he makes a hit or not the puck is going out of the zone with a lot of open ice. Adding more tenacity, or aggressiveness to his game just makes that issue worth. A post a few weeks ago someone called him the anti-Patrice Bergeon. Bergon knew when to take the body and when it was better not to do that so he could get back in the play. He may have been the best ever at that. Cozens seems to be the worst ever. Cozens would be a better player with only 2 things I can see. He magically turns into a better shooter. I do not see how that happens. 2nd he makes better decisions in all areas. He doesn't take that shot on the PP for the sake of taking shot when no one is in front. Or in a close game if the Sabres have one forchecker in deep already, he doesn't make himself the 2nd guy in deep where usually the puck goes the other way against you. He has almost zero situational awareness out there. He doesn't read where his teammates are and cover for them. He isn't aware of where all the opposition is, instead only having a singular focus on the puck. And as the Wayne Gretzky saying is, don't go to where the puck is, go to where it is going. I do not think I have ever seen a hockey player in the NHL who goes to where the puck is or has been, and has no skill or sense of where it is going, more than Cozens. Unless someone can make him a more accurate shooter and into his 5th season he starts to 'see' the game differently on the ice, I do not see how he becomes a better player at this point.
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The above is a very small sample size, but it speaks to me somehow. When I watch the Sabres powerplay Cozens often times to be more 'in the way' than he helps. And often times he just shoots in a way where it seems like there is near zero chance of it going in, and I wonder if not taking any shot at all would be better than Cozens slapping the puck at the net and it resulting in the puck getting out of the zone. I normally would discount the small sample size. However the trend above supports what many of us see with our own eyes.
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The only possible answer to me is coaches see how fast he skates, they know where he was drafted, and see his shot in practice and think Cozens had some raw talent deep down, and those coaches want to be the one to draw it out. They have all tried. At first glance Granato looks to have succeeded in one single season, but what is more likely is that those 31 goals may have been a mirage, a one time occurence that outright masked other problems with his game that have not improved. There is a lot of data up there but it does support how Cozens is a player that likely hurts this team, adding to losses more than he does to wins. He hurts the team actively. He does not produce anymore. I think his mistakes have gone down a slight bit without the puck, but he still makes as many as any other forward so he hurts you that way. He is a skilled player, but he is not a good player. As per what you mentioned above, he also hurts you by, inexplicably, taking opportunities away from someone else, almost anyone else, with talent on the PP, sucking the team's PP production down with him.
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And it either a smaller operation and/or something he feels he knows a lot about. It is not just a matter of whether they talk everyday or not. That matters, but it is the substance of the conversation that is much more important.
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Some of us don't see a big time upgrade out there. Some of us think that Lindy is still better than most of what is out there. The argument and posts back and forth are from this. You think it is a fact that he's upgradable, and I assume both theoretically and in a practical sense. Many of us do not think both of those things are true. I'm going to agree with you but not put it all on the GM. I still think that the owner has a lot of input even into the roster, and at the very least he has set the budget over the last few years that the hockey department has had to work within. That budget being no spending to the cap until the arena is filled and fans start forking over $ again.
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I'm not worried about his body type or his offseason training habits to get bigger and stronger. His shooting accuracy, ability to make his line-mates better and him playing a smarter game than a typical high school hockey player are the issues I want to see him get better at. Some of those he never has been good at, others he had one good year of.
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For the entire league or just the Sabres organization?
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I get some replies when I say its on Pegula. A lot of asking for proof. A lot of saying its just not true. There may not be the smoking gun to convict Pegula, but there is so much circumstantial evidence from every angle that it convinces me this is more on Pegula than on any coach, any GM any player this organization has had through the recent drought.
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No, this is not on Lindy. It starts with Pegula first. Adams and the hockey department 2nd. Players playing to their ability 3rd. Lindy as of now is at the bottom of the list of who is at fault in this organization. The problem is the rot starts at the top. You have the weakest part of the organizations impacting everything below him. The only hope I have this team ever gets good is pure luck, because that is the only way Pegula doesn't mess up everything below him. And everything is below him. Firing Lindy won't solve the issue. His replacement will just be picked by Pegula, or by someone at a different level Pegula picked.
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Taking orders and advice from Pegula, which was the condition he was hired upon.
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It has been well documented at this point, that there were other teams that did not make those cuts to the same degree the Sabres did. Also, Pegula continued that austerity program even after the Pandemic wound down and many other teams were spending and hiring again. I do not have the quotes and articles at my fingeritps at the moment for this post, but a quick search will show many of them posted on this very forum. Once Pegula soured on Eichel (yes, there are articles and quotes that have been posted on this very forum that show Pegula was not happy with Eichel), he was more than happy to get rid of his salary. Why did Reinhart end up leaving? The Sabres would not pay him long term, pnly giving him short term, short money deals. Mitts was a critical part of this team last year, and he said the Sabres did not even approach him with a long term offer, which the Sabres did not deny either. He was traded in part, probably largely, because they did not want to pay him money long term while well under the cap. They bought out Jeff Skinner and they didn't seem to use that free cap space to spend real money to fill out the roster. That is more on Pegula than the Hockey department. I highly doubt Adams, nor anyone in the hockey department, was thinking they don't want to pay these guys even when they had much cap space. That came from Pegula, not the hockey department. I also remember Pegula saying when he bought the team something like "there is no salary cap on scouting or coaching" or something like that, saying how the team would work to win the cup. If everyone was cutting back on Staff and scouts after the Pandemic, wouldn't a smart business person, a multi-billionaire that wanted his team to win, a smart leader, use that opportunity to grab and sign as many good people as you could when others were letting them go? Pegula did the opposite. He gutted the Sabres scouting and development programs and was certainly not in a hurry to rebuild those programs for a few years. Several of the guys that were purged were picked up by other teams instead of the other way around. This is on Pegula. Most of what his franchise is right now in a negative way, its on Terry Pegula.
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I would disagree. Some, I could say several of the moves he has made have been decent. He has some good ones, he has some bad ones, he has some where he had to take the best offer because of the position he was in. For example, You can not pay Reinhart or Mitts when the owner does not want to open the purse so you have to take the best offer. It seems to me that much of the criticism Adams receives that is justified is not that all of his moves are a disaster, but rather he does not make enough moves or that he takes too long to make them. Any trade he does make, that would remedy the above.
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I disagree also, but probably for a different reason. Adams may as well make the trade if it is there. Because to me it is not Adams that is the issue. It is this entire front office under Pegula. If Adams were fired and someone was promoted from within, I do not think you get much difference than Adams. If a new GM from the outside were brought in but was left with much, or any of the staff below him such as Karmanos, Forton, and the others and Pegula wants them to continue to all have input, you don't get much difference than Adams. The only way you can get what you are looking for is if Adams is gone, those guys under him are gone, and Pegula allows a restructure of the way the department is run including excusing/excluding his own involvement to its current degree. If Pegula is willing to fire the entire hockey dept and remove himself from those regular meetings fine. If that does not happen then you may as well let Adams keep taking shots at things because nothing else would be different otherwise.