RochesterExpat

What is Arizona doing? Stockpiling Russians who have KHL contracts for the next two years so they can move to NA when the team relocates to Houston?

I am still hopeful.

Simashev has one as well.

But they didn’t make the same comments for Simashev who has a KHL contract for the next two seasons. It’s the third season that makes the difference?

“Swing for the fences” - ESPN Michkov at 7OA isn’t a swing. What?

That wasn’t best player available and that’s a poor way to draft.

You should have doubled down.

wait that isn’t Will Smith @LGR4GM 4 for 4 now

Whoa. I’m surprised

I'm sorry, what? How is he only worth a 3rd? I'd have made this trade six ways to Sunday. Imagine him with Mitts. Although I suspect we were on his no trade list.

Before pick #13 is announced.

Can I just make a bet that Buffalo doesn't pick at 13?

At least with the forward group, I’m good waiting for the season to start before making changes. How are JJP and Quinn’s sophomore years going to look? Is Cozens going to take yet another step? Will Tuch’s finishing regress? Defense shouldn’t wait for the season to start. Goaltending as well in my opinion. Offense? It can wait.

I like this on paper. Third line could be a pretty decent scoring threat if JJP takes the shot opportunities like he did at the WC.

I was going to post this in the "biggest stride" thread but thought it too off-topic. @mjd1001, @kas23 and @North Buffalo all picked (well NB commented on mjd's statement but is getting tagged regardless). Anyway, this is what I was going to say: I think we've learned that Mitts can't carry a line and needs supporting talent surrounding him. I picked Power for the breakout because I expect him to have a D compliment that will open the door for him to take the next step. I'd like to see Mitts have a breakout as well, but I'm struggling to see how with the lines for next season. If he has the talent to compliment his own, he can play up to their level as he demonstrated at the end of the season when he was bumped to the first line due to injuries. If he's put on the line with a one-dimensional player like VO again, I see him having issues. That's not a knock against Mitts. If anything, it's a knock against the Org if they don't give him enough support next season to fully utilize him. Frankly, right now, I don't know who that support will be. I realize this is going off-topic, but it's got me thinking now. We have the following forwards under contract: Skinner - Thompson - Tuch Quinn - Cozens - JJP ??? - Mitts - ??? Z - Krebs - KO - Greenway Jost hasn't been given a QO and, while I believe GMKA when he says they've been negotiating, he still isn't signed. VO is likely to be traded per "insiders" and he was a healthy scratch at the end of the season. If he's on the third line with Mitts again at the start of the season, we're basically screwed so this whole thought exercise is moot. In Rochester, we have Rousek, Kulich, Rosen, and Weissbach who are the most likely to hit the roster out of camp. Kulich is a more talented VO right now and needs time in the AHL to develop his defensive game (I recognize this is just my opinion) and Rosen needs more time in the gym before he should see the big time. Rousek is probably talented enough to give a look at a Top 9 role in the NHL as is Weissbach. Weissbach plays a bit more of a physical game despite his stature. They're both lefties as is Mitts (and Kulich and Rosen and Greenway...). Savoie is a righty. So maybe the plan is for Savoie to start the season and get his 10-game look? In which case, you need to put a physical compliment with him (Greenway?) because, while I acknowledge Mitts was more of a 'pest' last season, Mitts is not a physical player. Savoie got pushed around in the AHL playoffs last season and he's the similar type of finesse playmaker that Mitts is. I don't know if that makes sense putting them together. Especially in the context of putting Savoie on the wing where he's going to get pushed off the puck along the boards. Kulich has the finishing ability (no doubting that) but would his defensive play be a liability with Mitts? Would it be a repeat of VO and Mitts? Greenway plays dump-and-chase hockey and is hesitant to shoot the puck (seriously, look at his shots-per-60). Can Granato change that? Currently it doesn't seem like the kind of player who you want sitting with Kulich/Mitts or Savoie/Mitts... or just Mitts. Rousek is a relatively complete player as is Weissbach. Do you just throw caution to the wind and try two untested AHLers with Mitts and hope they have the talent to play at the NHL level on a triple-lefty line? The other option is splitting up Quinn - Cozens - JJP and moving one of Quinn or JJP to play with Mitts. Maybe they put Savoie in for JJP? Don't know. Weird that we have 12 forwards under contract for next season, but I have no clue what our third line is going to look like. Ideas people?

I'd bet money on Power because he'll (hopefully) have a competent compliment on D. Granted, measuring "biggest stride" when we're talking about a defenseman who is already 21st in the league for share of all possible ice time last season (Dahlin is 3rd for those curious) is going to be difficult to quantify. We can't simply look at points which is more or less what everyone will be pointing to a year from now when we revisit this. Basically, just looking at last season, Quinn had 37 points last season, JJP had 32, and Power was in the middle at 35. Despite being in the middle for points, Power had more impact than either JJP or Quinn on the ice. I have no idea how I'm going to defend my take a year from now that Power made the biggest leap beyond "didn't you watch the games???" because I fully expect JJP and Quinn to both pass him on the scoresheet. EDIT: Just a thought, but I don't think putting Levi on this list is fair to him since he only played in 7 games last season.

It's the natural state of a nihilist.

Considering the rumor that GMKA is currently negotiating with Jost's camp, I think the current mantra is to keep the forward group intact until the trade deadline. At that point, they'll know the weaknesses of the forward group, what (if any) Rochester players are now full-time NHL roster players, and the Sabres can adjust the roster accordingly. Based on last season, there's no reason to believe this forward group isn't capable of being in a playoff spot come March. I suspect any adjustments to the forward group will be in the bottom 6 as well (barring injury). Bottom 6 additions are the types of trades which are usually pretty easy at the deadline assuming you have the appropriate cap space (which Buffalo should). If Buffalo had a glaring need at present in the Top 6, waiting until the deadline would be stupid, but I don't think we do. I think that's GMKA's approach and, assuming it is, I'm comfortable with it. I care that we upgrade the defense first and foremost and every indication we have from every "insider" is that GMKA is trying to do exactly that. While I'd like to see the goalie situation improved, I'm starting to think we won't see a change. If the goaltending situation is a train wreck next season and no changes are made this offseason, I'll officially jump off the GMKA train. Not that I think he cares though. Would you rather add a veteran forward in the offseason or add a true top 4D and a second 4/5D? That's my preference. Goalie aside (we're in agreement there, but I don't see it happening), I think I'd rather leave the forward group alone until the deadline and add at least one veteran with playoff experience bottom six on an expiring contract based on whatever role the Sabres need filled. I guess my assumption is this team already has the forward group to be in playoff contention come March and, considering the age of the group, I'd rather wait to plug holes when we have more data available from the first 2/3rds of the season. I don't see much of an upgrade over Z if we're strictly looking at him as a 4th line defensive forward. In the thread about his contract, I even joked it saved us the trouble of trading for him at the deadline. He is a genuinely solid defensive forward and good at that role--plenty of stats nerds support this. KO is the one who has lost a step and I see being replaced at the deadline. I honestly think he's going to go on LTIR at some point this season if/when his speed becomes an issue. I don't really have any concerns about Z next season. I have concerns about KO.

I guess it beats trying to trade for the same kind of player at the deadline like 15 other teams will be doing.

Filip Cederqvist might be the better replacement for Z based on last season, but he's also 2 years older than Kozak and has the muscle mass to show for it--so I guess not surprising? Neither of them will be in Buffalo next season though. I'd bet money that Cederqvist has a 'breakout' season in the A next season (although I don't mean 'breakout' in terms of goals scored as much as presence in front of the net, play disruption, PK minutes eaten, and the like).

He could play with Okposo and Krebs and would likely fit in, but I don’t think that’s the correct move. It’s like using your Ferrari to pick up groceries. I watched the majority of Amerks regular season and post-season games. Kulich is the better player on paper and he has seemingly far more potential than Rousek. He is faster and has a harder shot. Rousek is the more complete player right now though. Kulich needs another stint in the AHL to work on his defensive zone play. He also needs to continue to improve his pace of play. He jumps the boards and goes 100mph for 15 seconds before he’s gassed and suddenly lagging the play. Pretty expected for an eager 18/19 year old who played double the number of games last season than he’d ever played in a season. But both his defensive zone play and his pace of play dramatically improved over the course of the season and he looked solid (for the most part) in the playoffs. Give him a chance to start the season in Rochester and demonstrate he’s taken the next steps. Then when the first injury in the top 6 happens, call him up and run the Ferrari around the track. Burying him with Krebs and Okposo might help his defensive game, but it might also blow his confidence when he doesn’t get the same offensive opportunities. Rousek is solid in the D-zone and a smart player offensively. He moves the puck well in transition. He is consistent. He fits anywhere in the bottom 6. I don’t think Kulich should be put on our 4th line. Kulich may see a spot on the 3rd line depending on how camp works out, trades, and free agent signings, but for now I think he is best served in Rochester to start.

Arizona probably wants to trade him to punish him for keeping their tanking for Bedard from being successful. Although, if Arizona wants to punish a player, wouldn’t trading him be the opposite of that?

Sorry for the lack of clarity. I meant recency bias toward a lower SV% (e.g. closer to .900 than .915) make his career numbers listed out on a season basis look better than they are. His real numbers for 3 of his 5 NHL seasons are below league average compared to goalies with 20 or 25 starts (sorry, I can’t remember which number I pulled earlier). This season he was above average. I didn’t mean to suggest otherwise. The trend over the last decade is lower SV%. It’s why numbers in a vacuum are meaningless. In 2014-2015, for goalies with 25 or more starts, only 3 of 46 were below .900 (6.5%). The 23rd spot was .916. In 2022-2023, 19 of 53 goalies (35.8%) were under .900. Instead of being a middle of the pack 23rd of 46, a .916 this season was 10th of 53. For the record, 19 of the 46 goalies in 2014-2015 had negative GSAx (41.3%). In 2022-2023, 22 of 53 goalies had negative GSAx (41.5%). That is one of the reasons GSAx is a generally better metric for this type of comparison.

I want to jump on any bandwagon that has Buffalo upgrading the current goalie situation. Carter Hart is an upgrade over UPL and Comrie. That being said, he's not as good as you've been making him out to be. Sv% is misleading and three of those 5 seasons were below league averages anyway. It's recent bias that makes the numbers appear better. If Philly's defense was the only issue, his GSAx would be positive every season (in theory and, yes, I'm aware that's not really how it works). 2022-2023: GSAx 10.3 / GSAx per 60: 0.195 2021-2022: GSAx -6.6 / GSAx per 60: -0.152 2020-2021: GSAx -18.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.754 2019-2020: GSAx 6.9 / GSAx per 60: 0.177 2018-2019: GSAx -1.3 / GSAx per 60: -0.045 Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx: '23: 15 of 52 '22: 35 of 53 '21: 30 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 56 of 58 when changing to 15 games) '20: 7 of 52 '19: 25 of 54 Of goalies to play at least 25 games in terms of GSAx per 60 (usually doesn't change too much when already filtering for 25 games but worth adding): '23: 15 of 52 '22: 35 of 53 '21: 32 of 32 (since this was the shortened season, he's still 57 of 58 when changing to 15 games--Ryan Miller was last) '20: 7 of 52 '19: 27 of 54 So four seasons ago, he was a top 10 goalie in the league and it was his best season. This season he was 15th. The other three seasons he was negative GSAx and negative WAR. Granted, in the past 5 seasons he's done better than any Sabres goalies except for the Messiah himself, Michael Houser, and the Leviathan in terms of GSAx per 60. If we want an inconsistent goalie and think the ask is anything higher than a 2nd + UPL + Murray/Weissbach, we should just sign Frederik Andersen in free agency since he'll probably take a two year deal and it won't cost us any assets. Frederik Andersen GSAx per 60 (GSAx in parentheses) over the same timeframe. '23: 37 of 52 (-3.5) '22: 2 of 53 (27.8) '21: 21 of 37 (he played 24 games, adjusted the games played for that) (-4.8) '20: 40 of 52 (-14.3) '19: 11 of 54 (12.0) There's one other missing piece which is that Freddie has never had under .500 win % in terms of starts in any of his 10 seasons in the NHL. There's something to be said for that. I also concede that I don't know what expectations we're all having for this season. If we want to just make the playoffs, I'm confident enough that Carter Hart is going to get us there. If we want to be a serious contender in the playoffs, I have my doubts that Hart is the right goalie and there aren't a ton of alternatives. Betting on Levi being the second coming of Hasek should not be considered one of them. And, now that I think about it, if we're talking about playoff goaltending, I think I'd rather have Andersen. The window for Buffalo is wide open if we find a goalie and a D-man. I guess we can debate the caliber goalie we need, but we shouldn't sell the farm for someone who isn't going to put us over the edge from making the playoffs to being a contender. I don't believe Hart is that goalie. To me, trading a 1st is selling the farm.

Hart is not worth a first. He’s not that good. Is he an improvement over Comrie/UPL? Yes. Does being better than either of them make him worth trading a first? No. A 3rd, Weissbach and UPL. Or a 2nd and UPL.