Archie Lee

Competent ownership and management and coaching are the issues. It is not hard for me to imagine Thompson scoring 50 and being an offensive juggernaut, and a physical menace (not in the Bennett sense), playing on the first line of a cup winning team. Likewise, I could easily see Dahlin having a Conn Smythe level playoff performance for a cup winner. I can’t see it happening here. Not with this regime in charge. The big question at this point, in my view, is do Adams and Ruff get fired before Thompson or Dahlin demand a trade?

Then we can watch the next group taking turns winning the cup. There is no mystery here. Post-Regier, Pegula hired Tim Murray, Botterill, and Adams to be his GMs. And head coaches included Housley, Krueger, and now Ruff at the end of his career. Pegula has simply hired the wrong people over and over. It’s not the players.

I agree that this would seemingly take us closer to the playoffs this season. Of course, it's probably fair to say that if the Tampa Bay Lightning are willing to trade Cirelli for Peterka, that there are some smart hockey people who think Peterka has the potential to be very, very good. Peterka is going into the season that Panarin and Kaprizov were in when they first game to the NHL from Russia. In what would have been their respective D5 years, Panarin and Kaprizov were in the KHL and repectively put of 62 points in 54 games and 62 points in 57 games. Peterka had 68 points in 73 NHL games in his D5. I'm not saying that Peterka will be a Panarin/Kaprizov level of player. But, I wonder if some teams perhaps see that level as his potential ceiling. With star level players being so hard to find, particularly when you are always finishing in the top 3rd of the league and/or trading your 1st rd picks, Tampa might just see Peterka as a chance worth taking. At worst, he's a 70 point winger, which is nothing to sneeze at. At best, maybe he is the 90-100 point winger that Peca (allegedly) predicted when he coached him in Rochester.

The only real hope is that a group of players out performs expectations and have career type years. Ruff has had two winning seasons in his last 11 as a head coach. One of then was 22-23 in NJ. The Devils had 112 points that year and Ruff was nominated for Coach of the Year. But several players had career years. Hughes, Hischer, Hamilton, and Mercer, all had their best offensive seasons that year. And Vanecek had a .911 save %, before dropping the next year to .890. So, Thompson could score 50, Dahlin could get to 80 points, Benson to 50, a healthy Norris to 60, Tuch in a contract year could put up 75 points. If Peterka was coming back, he might be an 80 point player. Luukkonen could bounce back and be a .910 goalie again. These or similar things, could happen. That's really the only thing to be hopeful for.

Puckpedia could be wrong, but in the fine print on their player page for Cirelli it indicates that his no trade clause kicks in July 1st this year.

I wouldn’t hate Peterka for Kyrou. It is at least getting an established NHL player in return. They are offensively similar and I think Kyrou’s defensive game has improved. Kyrou is 4 years older than Peterka. Like Peterka he was a 2nd round pick. He was drafted out of major junior by a St Louis team full of vets, so there was no quick path to the NHL like Peterka had. In his D5 year, which Peterka just completed, Kyrou had 35 points in 55 games (Covid year). Since then he has put up offensive numbers equal to what Peterka did this year (73 pts per 82 games). Kyrou signed his current 8 year 8.13 million per year deal, after his D7 year. One way to look at is that Kyrou has proven he is a 70-75 point winger, and JJP hasn’t quite yet. Another way to look at it is we are giving up 4 prime years in a similar player’s career. And then there is the possibility Peterka is only scratching the surface of his offensive output If there is a team out there that really likes Peterka, I could see him getting an offer sheet in the $9 million range, where the Sabres would not match; the cost would be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. If Peterka’s offensive ceiling is just a bit higher than what he has shown, then he is likely going to be worth $9 million per year in the not distant future. Seems crazy, but…

I am generally a “the off-season is a time for optimism” guy. I’m trying to engage in my usual off-season routine of considering what I think are reasonable options for improving the roster and moving to being a playoff squad. I just can’t quite get there though. The best scenario that I can imagine realistically unfolding, is that we fluke into a line-up configuration that includes 2-3 players who have career type years and/or who have personalities that transcend the doom and gloom (or both), and we get to a wild-card position. The downside of that is that it will likely mean an extension for Adams and he will then need to prove it wasn’t a fluke, which I would bet against him doing. I’m not a cynic, but I am capable of cynicism. No team in the league for this coming season, will be worse positioned than the Sabres for a “that went south quickly” moment. There is a far higher than zero chance that they get booed off the ice at the home opener. I don’t think the players are going to go through any walls for this owner, GM, and HC.

I think some players probably look at the Sabres and can’t come up with a team that they would less like to play for. 14 years out of the playoffs, meddling owner, incompetent 1st time GM about to get his 6th year, oldest coach in the league who finished near the top of “coach I wouldn’t want to play for” polling this year, no front office accountability, an eroding fan base, etc.. Then they look around and see all these former Sabres thriving. Nobody is going to look down on a good player for not wanting to be a Sabre. There is no downside to wanting out and asking for it. You won’t be labeled a malcontent or a problem player by the rest of the NHL, for wanting out of Buffalo There is no situation in the league worse. So why not tear off the bandaid and do what you need to do to get out now.

Well, all of this is going to play out in the next month or so. Again, if Byram won’t extend long-term, then he should be moved for the best return possible.

This is my fear. While there have been no real credible rumours this off-season, the two things that have been whispered are: - Byram to San Jose for pieces with the big piece being #30 overall; and - We are interested in Rakell or Rust from Pittsburgh and they like Helenius. I look at those two scenarios and see us trading maybe the best player right now in Byram, who is only 24 and plays a position where it is hard to find really good players, and the best future asset in Helenius who might be a middle 6 NHL centre, for an older winger with depreciating skills and value and a late 1st in a not strong draft. I know these things haven’t happened. And I know I have advocated for acquiring Rust. But these would be, in my view, the desperate moves of a man trying to save his job and not the calculated moves of a skilled GM.

Certainly we would need to lock up Byram before considering a Power trade. Of course if Byram is dead-set against staying in Buffalo, then he should be moved.

So true. Benson is an outlier who is simply a good 200ft player. Benson would have good d-metrics in any system because he is defensively responsible and committed. The narrative a year ago was that players were craving structure and accountability. Adams and Pegula see Ruff as the sort of old school coach that demands from players what they perceive to have been missing; but a closer examination would have allowed them to conclude that Ruff hasn’t been that coach for some time (if he ever truly was). This team needed a Hynes or an Evason.

I am not certain it would be better to trade Power than Byram. I think though that right now Byram is the better player. And I think his game translates better than Power’s to the type of hockey we are watching right now. And I think Byram has the sort of personality that people gravitate to and follow, and, while I like Power, I don’t think he has that gene. And I think we could extend Byram for less than Power’s current AAV of $8.35 million. And I think Power’s draft pedigree might mean he returns a better veteran player in trade. And, like you, I think ending this drought is critical. And Byram is only 17 months older than Power, so there is still lots of runway for Byram to improve. But I definitely could be wrong. And, there is a next to zero chance that Adams trades his first OA pick. The next GM might, but not Adams.

I’m with you (and Baker) on Byram. Extend him and let him be Dahlin’s long-term partner. He just turned 24. Power and Clifton make the same combined salary as Kadri and Andersson in Calgary. I’m not saying straight up (maybe we can get a pick or prospect too) and of course we have trade clauses to contend with, but if you want to make the playoffs this year, wouldn’t we just be a better team if we traded Power, Clifton, Kulich for Kadri, Andersson, and a wanker like Popisil (plus a future asset). And we can take a D at 9.

I have zero expectations that they will act responsibly and effectively, but if I'm in the "they should" mode, then they should act like a normal NHL team and keep the players who are good and can help them win now (see: Byram, Peterka), and move out some younger NHL assets that are not helping them win now and that are, in some cases, a bit over-priced or about to be a bit over-priced (see: Power, Kulich, Quinn, Samuelsson, perhaps Luukkonen, combined 20 million in cap for the coming season), for players who can help them make the playoffs now. Attach a prospect or draft pick to these players if needed, but don't toss away the future. The Sabres can't bring in veteran contracts without sending contracts out. If they want to win now, the contracts that are leaving should be the ones that are least likely to help with that goal.

Correct. But our GM has acknowledged he had no plan for Byram, and our record regressed with Byram (not his fault), and we now, it seems, have to trade Byram and we don’t know what we are getting for him. Sometimes there are no winners in a trade. It’s early to conclude on this one, in my view.

Good thing we aren’t trading Benson for Rust. If anyone has access to the Athletic’s player cards, they rank Rust as a +7 overall (Benson a +2, Peterka a +4). They have Rust’s contract value at $1.5 million higher than his actual $5.125 AAV. Their summary makes clear he is not great defensively. That said, I am not big on a Helenius for Rust or Rakell trade. Quinn, Rosen, and a 2nd? Sure. But as we are plagued by the same things that plagued the Sabres in the Eichel, O’Reilly, Reinhart days (a bad GM and a bad HC), I prefer we hold on to our best future assets out of hope that Pegula gets lucky with his next GM/HC hirings. My worst fears may be unfolding. Our near historically bad GM is about to trade our best future assets in a desperate attempt to save his job.

They showed a stat last night that this was one of only 7 times in history (back to the beginning), where a team overcame a 3 goal deficit to win a game in the finals. Last time it happened was 2006. I agree with the general sentiment that leads are not safe like they were 20 years ago and that game tying goals with an empty-net are now a thing that seems to happen regularly. These are good things. It makes for much better hockey. Last night’s Oiler win, was still a historical outlier though. Further to this, sort of, in his post-game press conference Maurice made a point of saying that he thinks the goaltending has been incredible. He added that the statistics are telling him something different, but the quality of shooters in today’s game is so good that the saves being made are amazing. 10 of the 16 playoff teams will finish the playoffs with a save % below .900. This is also good for hockey in my view.

I always thought that winning or losing a trade, was measured by some nebulous combination of individual player performance and team success. For example, people have long concluded that St. Louis won the O’Reilly trade. They won the cup and the Sabres have missed the playoffs every year since. Yet, Thompson is making a case that he was the best player in that deal (he may have a few 50 goal seasons in him coming). I think Byram is a better hockey player than Mitts. Neither team reached their post-trade goals. But we will need a better return than Charlie Coyle, who we could use, for me to give the clear victory to Adams.

You must have missed the first period. There were bad calls and missed calls both ways. The reffing wasn’t particularly good, but it wasn’t biased or lopsided.

Bizarre take

There is no realistic player transaction that the Sabres could make this off-season, that would have a more immediate impact than replacing Ruff with DeBoer.

I would like to see us trade Quinn+ for Rust. I would flank Kulich with Zucker and Rust as line 3. Give Kulich something we never gave Cozens: two solid veteran wingers who can teach how to be a pro.

You think we should be trading for more 1st rd picks?

It hasn't got us much, has it? The 8 teams that made it to the final 8 this year, have a combined 13 picks in the 1st round in the next 3 drafts. The 8 teams that finished in the bottom 8, have a combined 37 picks in the 1st rd in the next 3 drafts. None of the top 8 are planning to drop out of their positions in the next 3 years. None of the bottom 8 are likely to get into the top 8 anytime soon. What is perhaps interesting, is that the 6 teams that finished below us in the standings all have 5-6 picks in the 1st rd in the next 3 years. The Sabres have no extra 1st rd picks. I'm not saying we should add any 1st rd picks, but it speaks to Adams's level of incompetence that we have clearly passed the stage of acquiring young assets, yet we are still at the bottom of the standings. The teams below us are in rebuild mode; they aren't trying to win. Adams is trying to win, but doesn't know how.