Archie Lee

Staying the course is the correct thing to do. But it doesn’t mean making no meaningful changes. Staying the course means you remain committed to the vast majority of your young core (Thompson, Tuch, Cozens, Peterka, Quinn, Benson, Dahlin, Power, Byram, UPL, Levi) and that you don’t “blow it up”. Staying the course doesn’t mean running back something that failed. There are many meaningful changes that can be made in an attempt to advance this team to the playoffs that don’t involve steering off the current course (coaching changes and adding veterans in key positions are the obvious examples). To not make such changes is to do the opposite of what successful and serious professional sports franchises do.

Adams (with an assist to Pegula maybe) is the culprit for this year’s failings. Swapping out Boosh and Stillman for Clifton and Johnson was ok. Clifton upgraded the bottom of our D-corps. Johnson was bad. The problem though is that there were multiple other areas that needed to be addressed. Our special teams were bad last year. Those areas typically fall to assistants yet we opted for no changes. Comrie was a disaster last year. We opted not to upgrade the vet goalie position. Quinn was injured before free agency and we opted not to bring in a vet replacement. Granato had lost faith in Olofsson and we opted not to move him and bring in a replacement. Teams that are serious about moving forward, address these issues (maybe not all of them, but some of them). We had two assistants in Rochester sought after by NHL teams. We let them go rather than promote. With Comrie we sacrificed talent for vibes. We gave the starting job to Levi though he had a poor pre-season. The best goalie out of camp should have started, not the struggling rookie. A veteran winger should have been signed to replace Quinn. We should have ate some of Olofsson’s salary and attached a pick to move him and then bring in another vet who better fit a bottom six role. By not doing these things, a clear message was sent to the team: there is no urgency and we will get there when we get there. That is not how playoff teams operate. The culture that lacked urgency in my view is the reason for the poor start to the year and the carry over to how poorly we start games. I’ve been a supporter of Adams. I think he handled himself extremely well through his first 3 seasons. No GM makes only good decisions. Through his 1st three years he did well to navigate a toxic environment and position us for success. He crapped the bed this past off-season though. He was afraid to embrace success and expectation and urgency. Our best chance of moving forward is that he has learned from his mistakes.

The Sabres are 6 points off their pace from a year ago. They had 85 points after 78 games a year ago. Interestingly, they were actually further back of a playoff spot last year as they were 6 out at this point and are 5 out at the moment. Frustrating for me is that after missing last year by 1 point and with obvious flaws, from the end of last season to now there were only two moves made that can be argued as attempts to improve the team in the moment. These moves were linked, the adding of two veteran D in free agency. One, I would argue, turned out fine (I’m not entirely unhappy that we have Clifton at his AAV for 2 years), the other was awful (E. Johnson). That’s it. Watching yesterday’s game, it occurred to me that the Sabres have many players who are ready to be on a team that takes the next step. They really did need their owner and GM to have faith in them and help by addressing some of the weaknesses. At minimum, there should have been one or two changes in the assistant coaches and one or two veteran forwards added in the off-season to replace Quinn (injury) and Olofsson (who Granato had lost faith in). There are no guarantees, but where would we be today had we swapped Ellis and Christie to Rochester for Alpert and Peca and had we traded for Toffoli and signed, say, Alexander Kerfoot in free agency? Maybe we aren’t further along, but at least we could say there was an attempt. The sad thing is, I see zero indication that Adams thinks there is any need for such moves even now.

He would hold all of them accountable. The only players Granato holds accountable are rookies and Olofsson.

I agree that there is risk. There are playoff teams right now though who are paying 8 million plus for their goalies. As the cap goes up, paying $10 million plus for two goalies who split the job would be a reasonable option for some teams. And, as you say, if both hit then you do have a good trade chip.

They aren’t making the playoffs. I know that. Still, last night I habitually went through the remaining schedule of all the potential WC2 teams. I actually think there is a plausible scenario where 88 or even 87 points gets you in. It makes me a little sad and frustrated that Adams did nothing to enhance the line-up at the deadline. The Mitts/Byram deal was a wash in the moment (strengthening one area while weakening another). 2-3 additional points since the deadline and we are right there. All that said, I suspect Tortorella’s rants in the past few days will have the desired impact on the Flyers. I think the Flyers come out tonight and make clear they are actually in the race and we will not be up to the physicality that they will display.

Nice work. If I was UPL’s agent, my comparable is Demko. They were both drafted in rd 2, three years apart. At age 25 Demko signed a 5x5 extension. Demko’s pro #’s were better and more consistent at that point then UPL’s, but: - Demko had played substantially fewer NHL games; - Goal scoring is up and save %’s are down since Demko signed; and - The cap is going up. We will find out this off-season how much Adams believes in UPL. If he does not get 4-5 years at $4 million plus, then Adams either is not sold on UPL or is still more of a believer in Levi, or both.

I’m not at all surprised. People recognize that since the Krueger firing the organization has not prioritized winning. It remains to be seen when they will make winning an immediate priority and, when they do, if they have the right people running the show to make it work. I think the men who were running Vegas at their inception would have taken our current roster and prospect/draft capital over what they received in expansion. Another question would be: would you trade Pegula, Adams, Karmanos and Granato for Bill Foley as owner, George McPhee as GM, Kelly McCrimmon as asst. GM and Gerard Gallant as HC? If the goal is to win next year, then that is a trade I would make; with the talent in the organization now, those men would make it work and soon I think. If the goal is to meander along with no clear timeline to win anything, then I would stay with the status quo.

I am ok with moving on from Granato. The team failing to reach any level of consistency in their play this season has moved me from thinking he was certainly returning to thinking it may be closer to 50/50. If Adams has a normal GM mandate, then the single most meaningful thing he could do this off-season to send a message that expectations are changing would be to bring in a new head coach who has NHL experience leading teams to winning records and playoff games. There is an argument that it is simply time. In fairness to Granato though, for most or all of this season it could be said that 1/2 the lineup or more was made up of players who have not yet reached the prime years of their career. Add in that the lineup had clear weaknesses in grit and leadership (not a shot against any individuals, just an obvious comment on the lineup) and I’m not certain there are many available coaches who would have got more from this team.

I hope Samuelsson has a great career AND that Novikov turns out to be even better. If the argument for Novikov being better than Samuelsson long-term is, at least in part, that Novikov has more offense in his game, then I would just point out that in his age 20-21 AHL seasons Samuelsson put up 28 points in 45 games. That's not an argument for Samuelsson having more offense in his game than you are crediting him for. Rather, I just have some doubt that the offense we are seeing from Novikov this year will translate at the NHL level.

Generally players don’t sign bridge deals a year early. If he signs this summer it will be long term.

They became a better team when they replaced Bill Peters with Rod Brind’Amour. Sure, Skinner is not a Brind’Amour kind of player, but neither is Tony DeAngelo and the Hurricanes have made the playoffs with him.

I can’t believe anyone is seriously wanting to move on from Power after one season where nearly the entire team fell short of expectations, as individuals and a group. The one thing that Adams could do to signal that expectations are changing is to replace Granato with an experienced NHL head coach with a multi year track record of 45+ win playoff seasons. There are a handful currently available and likely to be more when the season ends and after some 1st rd playoff failures. Personally, I wish Granato had been provided more to work with this year. That would make the decision easier. As is, it will take a new and experiences head coach to raise organizational expectations and fan optimism.

Adams did make clear after the Byram deal that he had been trying to get a d-man. I don’t think your recollection or assumption on what Arizona wanted for Chychrun is accurate. I acknowledge that I ultimately have no idea as it has never been fully reported what the precise ask/demand was from the Sabres. Here is what we know though: - Chychrun went to Ottawa for a protected 1st and two 2nds. - During the post deadline press conference last year Adams insinuated they were in on Chychrun but the price was too high. Someone asked if Arizona asked for a top prospect or Savoie and Adams was coy but his expression suggested yes. My take was that Arizona likely wanted Savoie and two 2nds because Adams was unprepared to trade a 1st or Arizona didn’t see our 1st as valuable as Ottawa’s. I could be wrong, but I don’t think the ask was a 1st plus Savoie. I think the ask of the Sabres was Savoie rather than the 1st and Adams balked. I can’t say I’m down on this as I don’t think Chychrun would have, by himself, moved the needle on us making the playoffs this year. A fair question though would be, going forward, would we be better with an extended Mittelstadt and an extended Chychrun or with Byram, Savoie and whoever we would have drafted with the two 2nds?

Fair enough. But dont be surprised if he signs a 2x2 deal with the Leafs or Red Wings and scores 25-30 and is in the playoffs next year.

I’m sorry, but some are acting as though Skinner is the first high-priced, point-producing, bad at defence, sometimes lazy, winger to ever play in the NHL. There have been dozens and maybe hundreds over the years. They sometimes are on playoff teams and sometimes not. Skinner never being on a playoff team is a statistical anomaly far more attributable to the circumstances he has found himself in than to any impact that he had on those circumstances. That doesn’t mean that reasonable discussions about his role, impact, and future should not be had. But Jeff Skinner is not the reason we have missed the playoffs in the last 6 years anymore than Dahlin is the reason.

Agreed. This is on Pegula and Adams. One or both of them hatched the plan of the progressive rebuild without spending or utilizing draft/prospect capital. This past offseason was the time to make moves that signalled it was time to be a playoff team. They could have brought in a new PP coach, ate half of Olofsson’s contract to move him out and then used draft/prospect capital to bring in a couple of veteran forwards to replace Olofsson and Quinn. Then if the season started poorly they could have fired Granato and not felt guilty about it because they at least gave him a fighter’s chance. None of this would have guaranteed playoffs, but as a fan I would have at least respected the effort. Instead the clear message was that, while they were not trying to lose, they were also not prioritizing winning. Now they have seemingly slid back to where they were before the Eichel trade when it comes to player and fan engagement. They have made things harder on themselves by being patient/passive.

I can walk and chew gum at the same time. I can cheer for the Sabres and be happy when they win, while not losing sight on what put them in this position.

This is meaningless to me. Good coaches demand accountability. Some yell and scream and others do so quietly. I don’t need a coach who makes a scene, just one who gets the job done.

I think Adams missed a moment. Somewhere, and likely at multiple points, between the end of the 21-22 season (Eichel trade, strong finish) and this past off-season, Adams needed to commit to winning now. That doesn’t mean he needed to do anything reckless or trade the farm or irrationally fire someone after one bad game. It just means he needed to act like a normal NHL GM and make moves that showed the clear intent to be a playoff team. Unfortunately, he didn’t do that and that window has been slammed shut. We seem further away now than we did two years ago. The “people who want to be here” vibes are gone and whatever improvements he did make to the culture are teetering. Make no mistake, the top 9 forwards you saw last night are the top 9 forwards. The D are the D (Sammy or RJ will replace Bryson) and the goalies are the goalies. Also, the coaches are the coaches. I would like to think Adams understands he needs to make moves, but he has always signaled his intent. He said it himself, he tried to get a 4th line centre at the deadline. Prepare to be underwhelmed.

I’m not entirely sure what all is encompassed in your comment that “no one in similar circumstances has come up with a faster plan”. I replied to this point earlier in the thread. Being more succinct with this reply, I would argue that it is incredibly rare that a team that is in a full rebuild starts with what Adams started with. The depth of age 23 and under talent that was already in the system AND that was acquired in the trades AND that was enhanced by an immediate 1OA (Power) is quite unique. Adams started with more than most. Quite a bit more in my view.

In fairness, there is literally no one arguing Sabre fans should be happy or accepting of 13 straight years out of the playoffs. The point of the thread, I think, is to examine whether growing discontent with Adams and Granato is fair or unfair in the context of what they took over and relative to what teams that were similarly positioned at that moment have since accomplished.

It might be worth noting that the starting point of the Adams purge was perhaps singularly unique. The Adams purge that started with the Krueger firing, did not occur after the team had a run of success and was getting old. It happened after a completely failed rebuild (not Adams' fault). There were seven players who were either traded or not re-signed during the tear down who I would argue could have been considered part of an ongoing veteran core: Eichel, Reinhart, Taylor Hall, Risto (I know), Montour, McCabe and Ullmark. It was not Adams choice to get rid of all these players, and many (most) wanted out, but the average age of those players was under 27, and none were 30. I'm not arguing Adams should have kept them. What's important is that because we had never achieved any success with those players, we were continuing to acquire top prospects. Already in the system at the time the Adams purge started were (by draft year) Thompson, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Luukkonen, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Cozens, Johnson, Quinn* and Peterka* (*drafted by Adams). So, Adams was not starting with an empty pool of young players and prospects. He started the rebuild with seven 1st rd picks aged 23 and under in the system, four of those were top 10 picks with Dahlin being a #1. Also, because we were so awful under Krueger, Adams was able to take Power 1st overall in 2021 and within a year had himself a 2nd top four d-man who could play 23+ minutes a night. I think the above should be considered when we assess what Adams has accomplished. He started with really good under 23 talent. To Adams credit, him and Granato helped create an environment that allowed that existing talent to bloom fairly quickly to the point where, with a few good vets already here or added, it got us within a point of the playoffs. I would argue that through last season Adams had successfully navigated the team out of a toxic mess, through a steady progression toward the cusp of where we want to go: the playoffs and eventually playoff success. My concern though is when an inexperienced person has success early in their career, they may fail to recognize what portion of their success was from making good and smart decisions and what portion came from luck or good fortune. Hopefully Adams is wise enough to recognize the difference and takes steps this off-season to ensure we don't need to rely so much on luck and good fortune to take the big step forward that is needed.

Based on last year's performance, Tage would probably come in just outside of the top 10 centres league-wide (his lack of a good two-way game a year ago would have dragged him out of the top-10). This year, Tage is a #1 centre only because every team has a #1 centre. He is not in the top 40 centres for scoring. His defence is better than a year ago, but I don't know that I would call it good yet. In my view, Tage needs to rebound offensively to a level that is significantly higher than mid-way between last year and this year to get to being an unquestionable #1C. I'm not sure that Skinner is out of the mix. He is frustrating at times. Lots of people give Thompson a pass this year due to injury while overlooking that Skinner also had a significant mid-season injury. On a team that is offensively challenged, Skinner is tied for the team lead in goals and is tops in goals per game. I don't think he is disappearing out of the top 6 anytime soon.

We are out of it because we won’t win enough games to stay in it. But, for those still playing along at home, the most important things tonight are that Wash/Det are decided in regulation and that the Flyers lose in regulation to the Rangers. The WC2 threshold drops by over a full point if those two things occur.