Archie Lee

Through November, UPL was 8-5-1 with a .904 save % and a GAA in the 2.60 range. Then came the 1st Colorado loss and the meat of the 13 game losing streak. His game slowly unravelled from there to the point of complete collapse by February/March. Of course, a large part of this is on him. I think though, that the Sabres will be making an enormous mistake if they don’t recognize the negative impact that the Lindy Ruff system/structure has on goalies.

That line-up comes in around $50k under the cap. And, while he is probably $1 million high on Bernard-Docker’s deal, he might be a combined $5-6 million low on Peterka and Byram. From the angle of: “Could this line-up make the playoffs…once?” Well, Montreal might make the playoffs this year. I don’t think their line-up is better. So, yeah, it could. But not likely with Ruff as HC. And, obviously, UPL would need a big bounce back year.

I’m not sure of the differences in scouting staffs, but under Yzerman, Tampa drafted much better than Detroit has. Also, Yzerman inherited Hedman and Stamkos in Tampa. Dylan Larkin is a good player, but not in the same category as a building block as Stamkos or Hedman.

The irony, of course, is that the culture in the room that Ruff was referring to, was created by Adams, the man heading the meeting in the room they were in. Like last off-season, we are back to Adams blaming the players rather than taking responsibility for his own role in creating the mess. Last year the narrative was accountability, this year it appears we are headed towards off-season training as the area of focus. Also, Ruff has now finished out of the playoffs in 7 of his last 10 years as a head coach. He is the oldest coach in the NHL. This is the man we hired with the goal of long-term success. You can’t make this stuff up.

Yzerman has never won a Cup as a GM. He was gone from Tampa by the time they won their back to back cups. Certainly he played a role in building those teams, but he was gone by then. He made it to one cup final, a decade ago in 2015.

That line-up would come in very close to the 95.5 cap ceiling.

I always wondered why Muckler picked Nolan over Tortorella to coach the Sabres back in the day. Torts is certainly a guy who did it his way. With the Jarmo talk the past couple of days, I hope we don’t get a Jarmo/Torts reunion in Buffalo.

The irony of the hierarchy that over 5 years has built a team that is in the running for last in the East, talking about needing to change the culture and change the room while they sit around together in a room and openly display the culture that led to this disaster, was too much for me. Of all that has gone wrong the past 14 years, this video might be the low point for me as a fan. They simply could not be more out of touch with reality. Also, it was an interesting choice to reveal they had multiple offers for Cozens, including one other “hockey trade”, while the oft-injured centre that they did get in return is currently out with an injury.

Trust me, it will make you want to vomit.

It's possible that Pegula is a guy who has surrounded himself with people who just tell him what they think he wants to hear and that nobody ever gives him bad news or challenges his opinion. I think it is much more likely though that there are people within his orbit who have his ear and that some of those people would be honest regarding the state of the Sabres. Also, I think it is possible that he is simply much more aware of this on his own, than we might think. It's interesting to me that there are in some ways two competing narratives regarding the Sabres. One narrative is that the current GM has proven himself incapable of doing the job and that the outcome, after 5 years of his stewardship, is that the team is again a bottom-dweller and seemingly directionless; those of us who ascribe to this view, believe Adams should be fired. The second narrative, which has been repeated in recent articles on the state of the Sabres, is that the issues with the franchise derive in no small part from Pegula not being patient enough and that he has fired GMs and coaches too quickly. Without any evidence, I believe this likely weighs on Pegula. My view is that it is likely Pegula thinks of these things and that if he has not already made up his mind, then he is weighing the potential consequences of another year of Adams vs. starting over (by starting over, I don't mean another rebuild, but finding yet another GM). In this context, I do think that what the fans and media say, write, and do, regarding the Sabres can have an impact. It might not sway his opinion and he might settle on giving Adams & Ruff another year. But, negative public discourse around the Sabres might also be the factor that tips his decision in the other direction.

At this point, I would be fine with Jarmo, I guess. Barring something unexpected, he is pretty much the best available option with experience. There isn’t much in his track record to get excited about, though. Except, of course, that his teams made the playoffs 40-45% of the time. His track record is pretty mediocre. I think coach selection would be key for any hope of a quick rise in the standings. His post-Tortorella choices were not inspiring.

I agree that they could move anyone. Also, if Adams is gone it perhaps increases the likelihood that a recently extended or acquired player could be dealt. The Sabres have flexibility because they currently have no players with significantly restrictive trade or movement clauses. But, assuming we aren’t planning to walk away from Peterka or McLeod or Byram, then we have reached a point where taking on a contract will mean a comparable contract will need to go out. They won’t have the cap space to add an established NHL player who makes north of $3 million, without a similar contract going out.

With the extension and raise for Greenway, I imagine he will be in the middle-6. If we assume that Adams is back and that he isn’t likely to trade the recently extended Zucker and Greenway, or the recently acquired Norris, or core pieces Thompson and Tuch, or their currently most reliable centre in McLeod, then that leaves Peterka, Kulich, Benson as the players that could be moved to alter the make-up of the top 9. This makes some sense as it is basically fan consensus that the fatal line-up flaw this season is inexperience. I don’t think Benson is going anywhere.

I think it largely depends how you define a top 6 forward and a top 4 D. If you look at the depth charts of the top teams in the NHL, you find that Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, Brett Howden, Cody Ceci, and Mikko Mikkola (and many more such players) fill these roles for contending teams. Good coaching, structure, experience, roster construction, are as important. We have none of those things.

If what we are getting from McLeod this year is what McLeod now is, then I think he can be and maybe is, a good 2nd line centre. That’s even with a regression in shooting %. Keep him with Tuch, who I think he has good chemistry with, and I think you have a really good matchup line. If he plays with good players, the shooting % may drop but perhaps the shots/chances increase. If Thompson returns to the middle effectively, or we add a 1st line centre (hard to imagine), Norris/McLeod at 2/3 is potentially very good centre depth (label them as you wish). I think he is still at a point where his 3rd line history, lack of multiple productive offensive seasons, draft pedigree, etc. could be a drag on his value.

Fully agreed on Thompson. His contract already is a huge bargain. Thompson is 13th in the entire league in goals since the start of 21-22. He is one of the best offensive players in hockey. None of the 12 players who have scored more than Thompson, make less. Kyle Connor has the exact same AAV, but is a UFA in 26-27 and will be getting a big raise. Of the top 25 goal scorers in this period, only Hyman and Brock Nelson make less, and Nelson is a UFA who will likely get a contract exceeding Thompson's. It may be that Thompson's deal is the best bargain contract in the league. I still very much believe in Power. I'm not opposed to including him in the right deal. But, as you suggest, the right deal is a legit #1 centre under 28 with years of team control. If St. Louis wants to trade us Robert Thomas for Power, I'm in. I don't think that is happening though.

It’s just my view, but Ruff demoting McLeod to line 4 because he went pointless during their 3 game win streak in California, was a small but, nonetheless, contributing factor to the 13 game losing streak. Ruff demoting McLeod is an indictment of Ruff, not McLeod.

You are probably right. This will mean that McLeod starting the year as #3 will be somewhat of a moot point as he will need to be elevated at various times when Norris is injured and Kulich, due to youth, struggles. My hope is that Kulich is the young centre that we can use in a package, along with Power/Byram and possibly other pieces, to get a veteran centre. That is not a likely outcome though.

I'm not making excuses for Adams's general failure to properly do his job the past two off-seasons. That said, it is unlikely another team is going to hand us their bona-fide top-6 centre, regardless of any overpay that we might be willing to offer (I'm not saying it can't happen, just that it is unlikely). McLeod is 4 months younger than Norris, and was drafted one year later and 21 spots deeper into the draft. Prior to the second half of this season, McLeod has not been used or viewed as a top-6 centre. Even this year it has been more out of necessity that he has been elevated. He's playing at a 52 point pace; I'm not sure that is sustainable, but then this is the 1st opportunity he has been given to have this kind of season, let alone to sustain it. Norris, from his arrival in the NHL, was projected to be a top-6 centre. He has played at around a 54 point pace per 82 games; as we know, he has had injury issues. In an ideal world we get a legit #1 centre this off-season. If not, an alternative would be for Thompson to return to that role. If we don't acquire a legit top-6 centre and we don't move Thompson back from wing, then my opinion is that we have a bigger issue with Norris as our #1 centre than we have with McLeod as our #2. There are 6-7 teams currently in a playoff position, who don't have a #2 centre producing at McLeod's current level. There are no teams in a playoff spot with a #1 centre in Norris's mold, who plays at a 55 point pace over 82 games, but typically only plays about 60 games per year. If we do add a legit #1 centre this off-season (or if Thompson returns to that role), there might be no good reason to distinguish between Norris and McLeod as #2 or #3.

Agreed. The tell with UPL is how much time he spends outside of his posts. When he is lacking confidence, not playing well, he frequently chases the game outside of his crease. He is doing that way too much. It’s like a free safety who doesn’t trust what anyone else in the secondary is supposed to do. It’s not an excuse (UPL needs to play better), but it’s reality. Hopefully he can learn from Reimer on this.

If you want to hang your hat on what Miller did under Ruff over a decade ago, Biron nearly 20 years ago, and Hasek a quarter century ago, have at it. Lehtonen: Was a .911 to .921 goalie (.906 as a rookie) his entire career pre-Ruff. He was .919 his first year under Ruff. He then dropped to .903, .906, .902. When Ruff left Dallas, Lehtonen then rebounded to .912 under Hitchcock, before retiring. Niemi: Was a .912 to .920 goalie his entire career. Then under Ruff he fell to .905 and then .892. He bounced around for one year after he left Dallas, but posted a .917 in 19 games with Montreal, before finishing his career with a bad .887. Blackwood: was .918 and .915 in his first two NHL seasons. Under Ruff he fell to .902, .892, .893. Last year in San Jose he was .899 but bounced back this year to .911 in San Jose and .917 in Colorado. Vanecek: Was a .908 goalie pre-Ruff. Was .911 in his first year under Ruff, the season NJ had 112 points (credit to everyone there, most certainly including Ruff). He then dropped to .890 in year two under Ruff. He has not had a positive bounce back this year in San Jose or yet in Florida. I'm sure there were multiple factors in each goalie's case. I'm not saying Ruff is solely responsible for the decline in performance of these goalies or UPL this year. But, there is zero evidence that a Lindy Ruff coached hockey team consistently executes a repeatable, structured, effective, defensive system that helps them limit chances, keep goals down, and win hockey games. Ignore this if you like. Replacing Granato with Ruff in order to ensure accountability and structure was and is a farce on the same level as Malenstyn/Lafferty/Aube-Kubel will be an ice-flipping, shut-down, game-changing, 4th line that plays 3rd line minutes. The sooner we dump the GM selling this stuff, the better.

I'm not opposed to trading anyone for the right return. History shows that top picks don't get traded. I guess the one factor that could alter the landscape is that the Sabres are an outlier. While it is true that these picks don't get traded, it is also true that there has never been a team that has missed the playoffs 14 years in a row, with a GM headed into his 6th season, who is in the last year of his contract. So, desperation being what it is, perhaps if there is a year where such a pick is traded, this is it. That said, I think we have lots of pieces to trade other than our 1st rd pick. My preference would be to trade one of Byram or Power and 2-3 of Peterka, Benson, Quinn, Kulich, Rosen, for players who change the culture, experience-level, and physical make-up of the team. That would still leave us with all our picks from this year (including a likely top 5), and Helenius, Östlund, Wahlberg, Ziemer, the Russians, Strbak, Kleber, our goalie prospects. There is no reason such moves would have to mean we are sacrificing the future. Of course, I don't want Adams or Ruff involved in any of it. I love the draft and free agency season and will be tuned in regardless. I have zero faith though, that the current GM/HC combo can steer us out of the mess we are in.

14 straight years out of the playoffs. What you still doing here fanboy?

You mean in the 1/2 year in San Jose? Vanecek imploded to .890 in year two under Ruff. You are right though that his save % got even worse this year with San Jose. Ruff can hang his hat on his system being better than the worst team in the league. Though, Blackwood’s save % tanked under Ruff and then got a lot better in San Jose…so maybe not.

I know you are half joking. But, there is no element of good or bad luck involved. This is the cumulative outcome of neglect and incompetence.