Archie Lee

Bizarre take

There is no realistic player transaction that the Sabres could make this off-season, that would have a more immediate impact than replacing Ruff with DeBoer.

I would like to see us trade Quinn+ for Rust. I would flank Kulich with Zucker and Rust as line 3. Give Kulich something we never gave Cozens: two solid veteran wingers who can teach how to be a pro.

You think we should be trading for more 1st rd picks?

It hasn't got us much, has it? The 8 teams that made it to the final 8 this year, have a combined 13 picks in the 1st round in the next 3 drafts. The 8 teams that finished in the bottom 8, have a combined 37 picks in the 1st rd in the next 3 drafts. None of the top 8 are planning to drop out of their positions in the next 3 years. None of the bottom 8 are likely to get into the top 8 anytime soon. What is perhaps interesting, is that the 6 teams that finished below us in the standings all have 5-6 picks in the 1st rd in the next 3 years. The Sabres have no extra 1st rd picks. I'm not saying we should add any 1st rd picks, but it speaks to Adams's level of incompetence that we have clearly passed the stage of acquiring young assets, yet we are still at the bottom of the standings. The teams below us are in rebuild mode; they aren't trying to win. Adams is trying to win, but doesn't know how.

There are competing views on whether Pegula is too involved or disengaged. This video seems to want to dispel the notion that he is disengaged. And yet, it provides evidence that he is a meddler to those who think he is too involved. I haven’t watched such videos for other teams, assuming other teams produce similar content. Do other owners sit in on such discussions? Is Pegula unique? The video, to me, displayed odd editorial choices.

It does seem that it is the plan to roll the forwards back. I suspect they see a healthy Norris as an addition that has yet to arrive. Peterka, Benson, Kulich, Quinn, and even Krebs, they will be looking for additional levels from. I'm sure they think (I do), that Thompson has a 50 goal season in him Tuch could go off in a contract year. You mentioned that nobody wants to move Benson or Kulich. Benson I get, as he brings a sorely lacking element to the team. He is a rare Sabre capable of dragging others into the fight. Kulich I don't quite get. I like Kulich a lot and am not eager to see him traded; but it seems like an obvious place for an upgrade for a team trying to make the playoffs. Yet, they can't simply trade Kulich++ for a veteran centre, even if such a deal was available, as they would have to move out a contract to make room. There is also the reality that Adams makes on average only 1.4 trades per off-season that involve at least 1 NHL player (that's with including the Wil Butcher trade). If I get on PuckPediaGM and start making trades that individually seem at least possible, they almost always lead to another trade being needed and next thing I know I have mocked 4-6 trades. It's just not realistic. I'm thinking realistic moves are: - Byrum and Quinn to San Jose for Ferrero or Liljegren, Dellandrea (a grittier change of scenery winger) and 30th o/a - Maybe a depth D-man in free agency; it wouldn't surprise me to see them bring Gilbert back - Devils depth winger Nathan Bastian is a UFA; I had read that he was a Ruff favourite - A UFA goalie like Alex Lyon or Dan Vladar - Lafferty waived. I'm not trying to sell this, I just don't see them doing much more.

After posting some background data that I think, mostly, supports the argument to not trade Peterka, I should share my opinion that I think the Sabres could trade him (and Byram) for lesser players AND actually get better. I don't think our issue is talent. I think our issue last year was a combination of being too young, too inexperienced, not having the right mix of skill and physicality and toughness, not having the right leadership on and off the ice, and generally bad coaching. I think if you swapped* (as examples) Peterka, Byram, Clifton, Luukkonen, for Bryan Rust, Cody Ceci, Mario Ferrero, and a healthy Thatcher Demko, that the Sabres could actually change their roster make-up enough to be a playoff team. Not a contender, but a 96-97 point Ottawa Senator or Minnesota Wild level WC team. (*Not straight up trades. The Sabres are moving the two best players in this example, and should also get back some significant futures.) Though, I should add, success is unlikely with a Lindy Ruff and Kevyn Adams HC/GM combo. Over their combined last 16 years in their respective roles (11 for Ruff, 5 for Adams), they have produced 3 winning and 3 playoff seasons, for around an 18% success rate. They could fluke a WC playoff spot (we are due for at least such a fluke), but until they produce two playoff seasons in a row, making the playoffs should be viewed with skepticism at it relates to potential long-term success. Both are bad at their jobs. So, any comments or thoughts on roster changes that I make should be considered in the context that I think there is limited possibility of a successful outcome, for reasons that go far beyond the talent level of the players.

Perhaps food for thought. Peterka just finished his D5 season (5th year post-draft). No current Sabre player who was drafted by the team, has had a more uniform and straight-forward rise. In his D1 he played well against men in Germany. In D2 he had an excellent AHL season. In D3 he played a middle 6 role in his rookie NHL season and played to a 34 point pace. In D4 he played a top 6 role and had 50 points. In D5 he played a top 6 to top-line role and played to a 72 point pace. He has improved year over year. Peterka was tied for 51st in NHL scoring this year. There are 24 players who are primarily wingers, who finished ahead of him in scoring; of those players, only Lucas Raymond is younger (by 2 months). I realize there are more factors that make up a player’s effectiveness than just points. Goals are more valuable than assists. Primary assists are more valuable than secondary. Defensive acumen needs to be considered. Attitude and leadership abilities are factors. Can a guy drop the gloves if needed? Will he “accidently” elbow the opposition goalie in the head while pretending to be pushed over in a playoff game? All factors. But, points are still, generally, a primary point of measurement for where a player is placed in the line-up and for how much he gets paid. Of the 24 wingers who had more points than Peterka this past year, here is the post-draft year that they first played to the 72 point pace that Peterka just played to in his D5 season (this is not meant to be an exhaustive list of elite wingers; for example, due to injury this past season, Kaprizov is not on this list). D1: none D2: Ovechkin* (There was no NHL season in Ovechkin’s D1) D3: Pastrnak, Rantanan, Marner D4: Robertson, Raymond D5: Kucherov, Kyle Connor, Guentzel, Konecny, Boldy, Peterka is in this grouping D6: Necas, Filip Forsberg, Bratt, Nylander, Keller, Caufeld, Kyrou, Panarin* (Panarin was not drafted; had he been drafted in his first year of eligibility, then he would have reached the 72 point or greater level in D6, which was also his rookie NHL season) D7: Marchenko, Rakell D8: Reinhart, Hagel D9: Kempe There are 7 players on this list who have been traded. Of those, there is only one example where the player had established himself as an NHL player and the trading team was intending to improve immediately, as a result of the trade. That was Necas, traded this season for a truly elite winger in Rantanan. Generally, teams don't trade players like Peterka when they are 23 years old.

I’m not defending Pegula or Adams (they are bad at their roles, and big picture are obviously more to blame than Ruff). I just think it’s absurd to think that if Ruff, the venerable veteran, hand-picked, nobody else considered, greatest coach in team history, 3rd all-times in games coached and 5th in wins, said that in order to improve chances of winning he needed to bring in one guy that could help install his system or coach the PP, that Adams and Pegula would say no to spending an extra $350K (from what I can gather, about an average assistant coaching salary). I mean, I think things are pretty dire. But that is far more bleak than even I believe. If that’s the case, then we are in “no hope” territory.

As much as I am down on Ruff and think he is no longer a good option as an NHL head coach, I don’t think he is accepting a position where he is that handcuffed. If Ruff thought he needed better assistants, I have zero doubt that he would tell Adams that. And if Adams said no and told Ruff the org won’t fork out $350K to fire Matt Ellis, then I think Ruff would resign. The Sabres just added Staal and Kekalainan to their front office. I would bet they are being paid a lot more than Wilford and Ellis. It defies logic that Pegula would agree to spend more on the front office but won’t pay comparable peanuts to upgrade the coaching staff.

Ok, so what does that say about Lindy Ruff? I’m not defending Adams. Frankly, Adams should have fired the entire staff, did a full actual search for a head coach and let that head coach pick his staff the way it is done around the league (my understanding is that the GM typically has some say). If the Sabres functioned like a normal team, then after 22-23 Adams would have gone to Granato and said, “time to get serious Donny, we are making a couple of changes to the coaching staff”. There are still fans who think Ruff is getting the shaft. He’s a 65 year old independently wealthy man who has coached more NHL games than all but 2 people. Do us a solid Lindy and grow a pair and step down and tell the world that the conditions are not conducive to winning. The point isn’t that Adams isn’t a weasel, he’s a big one. The point is, Ruff is a weasel too.

Any team that trades for Miller will be doing so because they see him as a 1st or 2nd paid d-man. So, a $6 million AAV won’t be out of line (it might be an overpay for what he is, but it won’t be an overpay for what the team thinks they are trading for). For the Sabres, assuming Byram is good as gone, then Miller would either slot beside Dahlin or Power; unless they put Dahlin and Power together (which typically has worked well, I think) and put a right shot d-man with Miller. B-Docker might fit better with Miller than with Power.

I wouldn’t go that far. Bennett was certainly looking like a bust relative to his draft position. But, he had built a reputation as a strong playoff performer in Calgary (11 goals in 30 playoff games, while being an abrasive hard to play against wanker). Florida got him in April 2021 for a 2nd and prospect Emil Heinemen, who is now in the NHL with Montreal. At the time Bennett was headed into the last year of a bridge deal that paid him around $2.5 million. Any team could have beat that offer; Bennett did not choose Florida for the palm trees and low taxes. Different positions and styles, but like Bennett, Bowen Byram was a 4th OA pick. He is at about the same point in his career as Bennett was when traded to Florida. It looks like we will trade him. On the expected Buffalo Podcast they did their mock off-season part one, and Byram went to San Jose for Timothy Lilegren and the 30th overall pick.

All season long it looked like Oiler management had erred big-time in not keeping Holloway, McLeod, and Foegele and opting to keep Henrique and add J. Skinner, and Arvidsson. Then after looking finished early in rd 1, they rattled off a 13-2 stretch to put themselves up 1-0 in the cup final. Now though, it looks like they are running out of steam. The Oilers are still an elite team. It was said last night on here that it doesn’t seem that the Oilers have “IT”. Maybe so, but if the Oilers don’t have “IT” then the Panthers are the only team that does. Maybe the Oilers are getting sucked into the Panthers game, but watching the last few minutes last night, it seemed to me that the Oilers were doing what we would want the Sabres to do. They were sending a message that they aren’t going quietly. And, they have a lot of guys who can participate in the shenanigans. One line after the other had someone willing to drop the gloves or mix it up with the toughest of the Panthers. Maybe this is fence sitting, but I would not count the Oilers out until they are down 2 late in an elimination game. I could easily see them losing Thursday and then winning game 5 at home, putting them one road win from a game 7.

The larger issue, to me, is how complicit is Ruff? At this point I think the answer is: entirely. Either Ruff accepted the take it or leave it offer, or he has the power to make change and for some reason has chosen not to. Either way, Ruff is not the adult in the room who is going to set the organization straight.

Columbus has two firsts in this year’s draft, a prospect pool ranked at least as good as ours, and almost $40 million in real cap-space (they don’t need to move anyone to make room for additions). It will be tough for us to compete for a player like Robertson, when Dallas likely won’t be looking for a big contract back.

I think fans are just making the reasonable assumption that after missing the playoffs by one point followed by back to back years of moving further from the playoffs, that the GM has failed to make the needed moves. What moves might have made a difference is fan speculation (I’m guilty as charged). But I refuse to believe that the situation was beyond hopeless, and that no GM could have produced a better record the past two years than Adams has. Perhaps I’m wrong and this is just as good as we can reasonably expect from the Sabres.

For the Oiler’s sake, I hope Nugent-Hopkins is just getting a day of rest. If they go down Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins, that would start to be a very tough hill to climb.

Nobody is saying Adams should make bad moves.

There are lots of varying opinions, so it would be wrong for me to say that nobody wants to mortgage the future. I don’t think that is close to the general view of fans though. I was listening to the Athletic prospect show yesterday. They were podcasting from the Combine in Buffalo. At one point, they discussed how the current bottom of the league rebuilding teams like Chicago and San Jose, should manage their draft and prospect capital. The Sabres were brought up as the failed example; a franchise that over-valued picks and prospects and did not understand the need for a better balance between youth and veterans. Simply put, not all the kids will or can play. I think there are very few fans who want impulsive and unthoughtful player moves. Fans just want the GM to manage the team and its roster like a normal NHL team that is trying to win games. And if Adams has been trying to do that, then he has failed and it is time to let someone else do the job.

Adams has backed himself into a corner. By not making needed moves in years prior, he has put himself in a spot where he has to make moves to save his job. And the league knows it.

One of the philosophies of Kevyn Adams has been: don’t panic and make a desperation move. And here he is with one year left on his contract, and 5 straight years out of the playoffs overlayed on a league record 14 years of failure, and the Sabres can’t make change without trading roster players because they are up against the cap, and the league knows that he is under pressure to make bold moves. By repeatedly failing to make needed moves, Adams has backed himself into a corner.

Now I’m getting into speculation territory. I think Ruff is at the stage/age where it appealed to him to go into a situation that was set-up. No interviews, no decisions about letting a coach go, no having to call coaches and break the news that he is “going in another direction”. It’s a variation of what you are saying.

I have no idea of what really happened, but lets assume for a moment that there was no option for change and it was a take it or leave it scenario for Ruff. This notion is typically presented in defense of Ruff: "What's Lindy supposed to do, he didn't even get to choose his own coaches". If true, I see it as an indictment of Ruff, and not a defense. It's pathetic.