Drag0nDan
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Posts posted by Drag0nDan
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13 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:
Jack quinn
My pick. He doesn't take crap from people and i think someones going to lay out a linemate and he's going to drop them.
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4 hours ago, matter2003 said:
Sabres have a GF% of 60.87% at even strength, 3rd best in the NHL behind Vegas(67.57%) and Boston(63.04%).
They are 4th in the NHL with 28 even strength goals behind only LA Kings(30 - but played 2 extra games) and the Bruins and Islanders with 29(both have played 9 games like we have).
Compare this to last year where they were 28th in GF% at 43.35% and 23rd in even strength goals with 176.
Basically are getting an extra even strength goal per game this year, going from 2.14 last year to 3.11 this year.
I don't think this is a fluke, I this this team is starting to show they are pretty good. How good? I guess we will see(I am on record expecting 87-90 points this year), but many times teams "arrive" sooner than expected and decline sooner than expected.
Cozens looks like a major upgrade from last years cozens. Quinn/JJP/full season Tuch/Krebs are a lot of upgrades over... Hayden, Eakin, Bjork, Caggiula, Jankowski etc. And this is with 3 defensemen out with injuries.
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16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
They need to run the pp from below the goal line
This!! They're playing cross ice passes, so put a good passer down low and crash the net. Set up a play to do that and force them to adjust - set up cozens or tuch in front of the net for 1 timers, then have the wall guys crash for rebounds. If they adjust then you can pass to thompson for the one-timer or one-touch cross ice pass. Puck needs to move faster, and they need to use the space behind the crease to open some passing lanes.
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1 minute ago, freester said:
I think Okposo needs to be removed from the power play. He seems to have lost a step.
I think he's just there for a net front presence though. Buffalo's issues on PP have beenon the walls and zone entries.
Move skinner off, move olofsson up, maybe give JJP some time with one group. Shake it up a bit.
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19 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
I'd agree with that. Skinner is just running around all over the place and coughing up pucks at his worst. Maybe Granato tells him to just run free but he doesn't seem to understand team structure at all. Okposo plays like a player well past his prime. Still say the C was a mistake. At this rate he will have no trade deadline value either.
Thompson imo is playing passive, a little lazy, and just kind of floating around too much. Lacks drive and aggressiveness which is kind of what the problem was 2 years ago. At this point, the one season reward contract is not looking like good value. This might still change. But he does need to step it up.
Skinner has played pretty poorly in my eyes. He's getting PP time too, and just doesn't offer much at the moment. He's not getting to the net for rebounds, not forechecking effectively, not backchecking, and not shooting well. I'm not saying send him to the press box, but he needs to figure it out.
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4 hours ago, Pimlach said:
He just needs to keep working and shooting and the goals will come.
The Power Play problems are related to this topic.
He's had some neat set-ups but stuff isn't falling. Skinners shot has been off all year. They tried the line without tuch and they were getting jammed in their own end. I'd kinda like to see someone like quinn on that line, or maybe krebs.
They need to get faster and more creative on the power play and i think he's a part of that. Get skinner out of there, get some guys with some jam and stop dancing around and get the puck in on net.
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13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
The thing with Joker has always been he should be a 3rd pairing guy. The thing with Fitz and what comes after him is they should be Rochester guys. Depth at defense is a problem and there isn't much help that will natural come along.
Yeah, Pilut can create space for himself and is a skilled passer. Fitzgerald is not giving me the best vibes. It's always tough to be the swing guy on these type of arrangements though. They pair you with randoms constantly and theres no chemistry, but he was bad in his own end last night.
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Poor effort, lots of turnovers by the team, poor zone entries, poor zone exits. They were getting out skated and out worked pretty consistently. Just an all around bad day at the office. It happens... but it can't happen often.
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Its early - everyones healthy still. And there are a few differences
- Last season we ended up having to use scrubs at goalie by mid-season. Dell, Subban, Tokarski, Houser started 42 total.
- Some bad hockey players played... a LOT. Hayden Played 55 games. Eakin Played 69 games. Butcher played 37 games. Bjork played 58 games
- Eichel cloud hanging over their heads - they seemed to be a much different team upon adding Tuch and Krebs and dumping the "captain"
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20 minutes ago, klos1963 said:
Oilers had numerous great scoring opportunities in the 3rd, Kane had a bunch in close, McDavid had a few, Draisatl had one pretty much on the goalline. If that was the strategy is was a bad decision.
They just kept getting caught on long shifts, the zone exits were either when they were gassed so theyd change or iced it.
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4 minutes ago, SwampD said:
I want to see any team against Edmonton when the shorten the bench. It was not terrible.
I don’t agree with this. He did what he had to do (which we sabres fans aren’t really accustomed to), but other than the left pad save on RNH, it was pretty much all in front of him.
Just. No. It was a great win against a really good team. That third was pretty much what we would expect, and it wasn’t even as bad as one would believe reading this board. Just look at how the Oilers last two opponents fared in the third. It wasn’t all Oilers (oh, it was a lot), but we had some zone time and some chances, and even drew a penalty because of it.
That was awesome! Great win. JJP looks amazing! On his goal, I don’t think he looked at the puck from about the red line in.
I also thought VO had a pretty decent game, at both ends of the ice.
They run that mcdavid draisaitl combo at the end of the game for long stretches and its just exhausting.
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1 - Happy to see Tuch back on line 1. Olofsson with Tage and Skinner wasn't working. They were struggling to zone exit, and didn't feel like they could use the line to match up effectively.
2- Comrie had himself a freakin NIGHT.
3 - Dahlin must've worked on shooting cuz that shot was naaasty.
4 - The reshuffled 2nd line is interesting. We really need Mittelstadt to be a Center it seems.
5 - The only question mark i have on the PP right now is Krebs, he just isn't able to create the same space as Tage on the wall because there is no threat of a shot.
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On 10/14/2022 at 2:44 AM, PerreaultForever said:
Analytics can deceive.
Agree on the D pairing. I suspect that is why they extended him now. They see this combination long term. I've been arguing for years that Dahlin needs a rock beside him and a set pairing. I think we finally have it.
Power however, might need a better partner.
Definitely.
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9 minutes ago, nfreeman said:
…busy getting completely worked over by Stutzle’s line, I’d say.
They just struggled all night gaining the zone so they never really got going. Occaisionally they were on top of each other, sloppy, and i felt like they were also quite tentative. Their shifts always seemed to start with the defense waiting for them to get into position, and the corresponding zone entry attempt being sloppy as a result. Couldn't turn puck possession into anything, pucks in skates, just a sloppy bad day.
What they didn't do was try and overly force the issue and create bad turnovers in the neutral zone. Silver lining i suppose.
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9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
Not gonna argue that. But I'm nostalgic for the 90s and wish more guys went with that era.
Unfortunately for you... half of our roster was born in the 2000s
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3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:
Through most of the recent NHL season, if you can be even or positive in your teams goal differential, that gets you in the playoffs or very close. No guarantees, but each year it is only 1 or 2 teams that are positive that don't make the playoffs, and about the same number of teams that are negative that do make the playoffs.
So how do the Sabres closer to even, or possbily even positive?
Last year they were -58. The average goals scored/allowed per team was I THINK 266 last year. How do the Sabres get from where they were last year to there? The scored 232 so they need to get 34 more goals scored. They allowed 290, so they have to cut that down by 24.
What if the Sabres got better goaltending? The league average save percentage last year was .902. The 20th, 21st, and 22nd best goalies in the league last year (anyone over 35 games played) were at .910. The Sabres allowed 2702 shots last year. With leage average goaltending, they would allow 268-270 goals, almost 25 less than last year. With a goalie/goaltending at .910 (20th best in the league last year), they would allow 245 goals.
Want to take it a bit further? The Sabres allowed more shots than an average team, in addition to stoping less shots. With Dahlin getting one year better, Power and Sameulson improving the D unit, what if the Sabres just became league average in terms of shots allowed? That brings them down to just over 2600 shots allowed (almost 100 less than last year). So my numbers might not be correct down to the goal but I think they are close. If they can allow league average shots and get league average goaltending, they allow 266 goals. If they can get that 20th best goaltending (.910) and allow league average shots, that gets them down to about 235-240 goals, (which would be 50-55 of an improvement from this season)
I'm not saying they will, or could do any of that. But any combination of those gets them most of where they need to go in terms of goals allowed. If, IF they got top 20 NHL goaltending AND cut shots allowed down to league average, they would be very close to that even goal differential without even scoring any more goals.
All very good points - its not just the goalies. Shot suppression is important, and scoring more goals is important. There were stretches where we just got blown out too. Being consistently in every game is big too.
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On 10/4/2022 at 1:28 AM, matter2003 said:
Kozak telling opponents to get the Bozak
This team is going to be a lot better than most pundits think. Probably not playoff good but I think somewhere in the 87-90 point range.
If the goaltending were to improve they make noise. I just don't see it anywhere near the top of the league.
8 hours ago, Doohickie said:Matt Ellis was kind of one of those guys. He played 4 AHL seasons, then made the NHL for while, but then split time between the AHL and NHL for the rest of his career. In the 9 years he did play in the NHL, he averaged fewer than 40 games per year.
More successful than Malone and Lerg, but never quite fully established as an NHLer.
Yeah, I really really really hope he doesn't make the NHL roster.
Bjork will clear waivers. He doesn't do anything well. I'd rather carry sheahan as an extra forward since he can at least win draws.
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18 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
None of those guys have close to Tage's production yet! However all are ahead of him based on their ages and games played.
Prior to last season through age 23, Tage's played 145 games 18g 17a for 35 pts. (.24 pts/gp)
Mitts through age 23; 195 games 33g 47a for 80 pts (.41 pts/gp)
Cozens through age 20; 120 games 17g 34a for 51 pts (.425 pts/gp)
Krebs through age 21; 61 games 7g 16a for 23 pts (.38 pts/gp)
Honestly I have more faith in one of these 3 making a big step forward soon then I would have been on Tage making the leap. I think it's more likely that not, that at least 2 and maybe all three take a huge leap forward this coming season. Honestly they all have more raw talent than Tage and that is not to disparage Tage.
Also I don't give a crap about what people say about players positions going forward. Back in the day Briere and Hecht floated between center and wing depending on injuries or matchups. Today is DG's "position less" system, the who playing where is less important than who plays with whom. DG is probably going to experiment with all 3 of Krebs, Cozens and Mitts at center or wing until he gets the chemistry he wants, and even if we moved on from Tage (which we obviously aren't going to do any time soon) we'd still have a very talented forward group with 5 players (including Asplund and Z) who can play center if necessary. A top 9 of Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Skinner, VO, JJP, Quinn, Tuch and Asplund (or Vinnie or KO) would still probably be the most talented team we have had in a decade.
Ultimately, I think there are a plethora of reasons KA should have waited to give Tage a big contract. Ultimately he gambled and hopefully it will work out.
I'm still waiting for someone to point a contract similar to Tage's that worked out. Pastrank doesn't apply because he was younger by a few years and already had productive seasons with shooting % of 10.8 and 13.9 prior to his breakout. A 30 goal season with a 13% wasn't a huge surprise once given a bigger role.
I think thompsons playing wing with bottom line minutes makes it a tough comparison to find. One thing charts have shown me about thompson is that... location of shot matters when determining if a shooting percentage is an outlier. His shots this season were much more located to the slot vs. his previous time. He also became much more reliant upon his line mates - passing, setting up their passes etc. Previously he tried to do it all himself and there wasn't a ton of trust there.
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33 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:
Hes had 1 good year .
Did people forget his last 4 where he looked like absolute Garbage .
He was the line driver for the only scoring line. Skinner. Touch. Olof. They all benefited from playing with him, not vice versa.
Played multiple spots on power play. Played PK when asked.
He is our best forward and I'm not sure it's super close at this point.
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1 hour ago, Curt said:
I’m not always a big fan of citing goals above expected, because it’s usually presented as a list of who was “lucky”. However, the goals above expected leaderboard is generally made up almost exclusively of guys among the most skilled goal scorers in the league.
Thompson might not score 38 next season, but guys who score more goals than expected are generally guys who are just really good at putting the puck in the net.
I always felt that way about babip in baseball too. It can be used to indicate if someone is luckier or not... But good hitters just have good babip because they hit it where people are not.
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34 minutes ago, JohnC said:
The numbers you project at are realistic numbers next year but not in his rookie year. As @thewookie1has pointed out he has a pattern of acclimating himself in his first year at each level and then taking off in his second year. What's going to be intriguing to watch is the comparison in play between JJ and Quinn. The rate of development of our young players is going to make this season fun to watch.
Uhh tell that to Jeff Skinner
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2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:
Lehner I think is under-rated as a goalie when he is on the ice.
I think the bigger issues with him is he can be a pain for Coaches/GMs, and he seems to be prone to injuries. But when he is on the ice, I think he is a top 10 goalie.
His loss will hurt Vegas. If they can recover his salary and replace him with someone making what he was, I doubt they will get someone short term as good as he was/is.
Their remaining goaltending options are not good. They'll try and swing a trade once their LTIR stuff is settled with Lehner/Weber. The issue becomes... who is going to trade a goalie to them- and why? Not likely to happen until mid-season.
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On 6/3/2022 at 12:18 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:
I tend to agree with you, but we have seen it work both ways. VO stayed in Europe and developed just fine. JJP came here and blew up (in a good way). The jury is still out on whether it made any difference for Pekar or UPL.
Depends on the relationship with the European org I would think. Olofsson also had 18 points in his first 50 SHL games fwiw.
The SHL has a relegation system as well, which means they couldn't care less about Rosen's development. This isn't the NHL where you're awarded a pick if you finish last. They just joined tier 1 in 2020, and they need to win to get players to sign and stay.
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19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
I couldn't disagree more. The only way Sheahan starts the season in the top 12 is injury. I think JPP and Quinn are ready. KA is adamant about giving the kids an opportunity to play and develop. None are sitting in favor of a JAG vet. With JJP and Quinn ready, who are you pushing out of the lineup to play Sheahan? Krebs? Girgensons? Asplund?
Asplund isn't sitting. He is our best defensive forward and is improving offensively. Girgensons is a 50% faceoff guy just like Sheahan, is decent defensively, a team leader and our most physical forward. Krebs was one of the key pieces from the Eichel trade and one of most skilled playmakers. Sorry, I just don't see any of these guys sitting in favor of Sheahan.
Agreed. Send Bjork... wherever else is not in the realm of NHL playing time. Players get hurt, he'll get some time with the big club as a depth forward who can center a bottom 6 line, kill some penalties, and help keep the puck out of the net.
Lyubushkin is back at practice 11/3
in The Aud Club
Posted
I'm not taking asplund out again. As for Quinn and JJP, whenever their legs seem to lag - thats when you sit them for a game or two to put hino in the lineup for some extra juice.