Drag0nDan
-
Posts
1,185 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Drag0nDan
-
-
2 hours ago, Weave said:
This statement should cool some jets somewhat. Biron and Noronen were backups. Very good backup in the case of Biron, but still, backups. Levi’s future is still very much speculative.
Miller had 8 in 04-05 FWIW, it just wasn't the outright league lead.
-
2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
The short version is I think it is exceedingly flawed to say "in the last 3 years his sh% was this 11.9% (it's 12.05%) and therefore his 22.4% his off by 22.4-11.9 when you are ignoring that the 22.4 still gets factored in and would be 2/4 seasons over the 11.9% you are using.
He was also the 4th center on the oilers behind mcdavid draisaitl and RNH. His linemates were likely some of the weaker wings on the team. I'm not sure how that factors into shooting percentage, shot selection, or just generally how many shots you generate in that scenario.
Derek Ryan is by probably every analytic not generating a lot of scoring chances. Ditto for Janmark. Connor Brown. 2nd year Holloway (also what a great offer sheet that turned out to be for St. Louis). I don't know for sure who his common linemates were, but i'd assume some combination of all of these guys. So i always think shooting percentage raw is tough to evaluate - and how much of a drag on his numbers these might have been.
-
31 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:
Just add one more absolutely AWFUL contract to Adams failures. 4 more years at 4,750,000 per year. I don't even want this guy as a backup, so how in the world can they trade him? Are they allowed to pay him that to play in Rochester?
I am guessing that Levi is the starter in Rochester next year in hopes that he can make the team eventually. Ideally, they trade for a true #1 and have Reimer/Levi as a backup.
I don't see anything on the free agent list so there absolutely HAS to be a trade for a true #1. Buffalo has the prospects and draft position to make this happen. What team has a legit #1 that is still a couple years away from making the playoffs?
No one. Factoring in trade clauses, its less than no one. They are either a legit #1 and the team is in it, or they probably just re-upped. Oettinger, Hill, Saros, Vejmelka, Swayman, Blackwood, Thompson/Lindgren, and Daccord all extended. I can't see any of those teams wanting to swap contracts for UPL - even with solid sweeteners in there.
I'm not sure there's anyone even available that's worth trading for. I think the entire list is just Demko, but he's on an expiring deal and has been battling injuries all season since the playoffs a year ago. I'm not saying he's washed, i just doubt he'd re-up here.
They will need to get lucky in free agency, hope UPL plays considerably better, or Levi wins the crease by playing well.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:
This. On the goaltending side, GMKA hasn’t been “right” yet. And then he backtracked on a solid plan (Reimer for 25-35 games of .900 sv% just like he’s done for SJS and DET) by waiving him immediately. Now, he might still get to 25 games, but that’s because UPL has been burned out and benched. You built a tandem in the offseason: use the tandem!
If Levi had had a preseason shutout and a shutout in Czechia then maybe you waive Reimer, but why?
This leads to my question. At what point is Levi subject to waivers next season? Automatically at the start? Or will there be a games played # still in play despite age and seasons accrued?
Good question... He'll be 23 and he signed and played in 22-23. His entry-level 3 year deal is expired. He's played fewer than 60 NHL games, so i think he has one more year of waiver exemption.
https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/waivers
- Once a player 20+ Age plays 1 Professional Game, that is considered the first year (Levi was 21)
- The chart on there says he signed at 21, and has not exceeded 60 NHL starts, so by that measure he should be exempt for 4 years.
-
Just now, Archie Lee said:
You are right, but I think you are overlooking factors that led to UPL's performance cratering. UPL's performance began to suffer during the worst stretch of the Sabre season. During the 13 game losing streak, Reimer played 3 games and was 0-3 with a .865 save %. How would Reimer's season have gone had he been required to start 52 games for this team without respite? Reimer started only 10 games for the Sabres from Oct - Feb. I'm not saying that there are no goalies who could have done better than UPL (unequivocally, UPL has been bad and needs to be better), but it is one thing to start 10 games over 4 months for a bad defensive hockey team, and quite another to start 52. We are not likely to bring in an elite netminder in the off-season. Swapping in a couple of goalies who are largely available because they have lacked consistency in their career (that is who will be available), without addressing the other root causes of why we give up so many chances and goals, will not likely result in a positive outcome.
I just don't know why they kept riding UPL. Levi struggled out of the gate in a backup role, they got reimer back and sent levi down (i think he spot started somewhere during the losing streak). But as the season wore on and you were pretty much getting consistent AHL goaltending at the NHL level, they never felt like trying something different? Reimer or even Levi for that matter.
Reimer finishes back to back games during the losing streak after UPL gets pulled. Obviously gets the 3rd start on the back to back with the starter essentially melting down. Reimer then starts 3 games in january and february - and puts up a greater than .900 sv% in all 4 appearances (UPL was pulled against carolina). UPL started 15 games - 9 of which his sv% was under .900%. The team went 9-6-1 during these starts but every time they lost they gave up 5 or more goals. UPL is 3-7 in december.
His fall-off from November through the rest of the year is just... brutal (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/luukkuk01/splits/2025). It's impossible to win with these numbers. Consistently inconsistent.
-
1
-
-
12 hours ago, thewookie1 said:
God if only we were a bit closer, we are getting that late season surge with absurd goaltending
December was something else though, killed the entire season before 2025 even started.
-
27 minutes ago, HumanSlinky39 said:
So is Norris just done for the year, then? Great trade, Kev!
In fairness, JBD looks like he could be a serviceable Dman and the team is playing better without Cozens, but he couldn't have snagged a better return than a guy who can't even stay on the ice after 3 games and a possibly serviceable Dman?
They never say in hockey, but i feel like they wouldn't have said it wasn't a shoulder if it was. My guess is some type of core muscle type of thing that probably needs offseason surgery.
-
2 hours ago, Mustache of God said:
This is the first season I haven't followed this team closely.
What's the deal with Norris? Is he on IR? What kind of injury does he have?
What's the deal with UPL? Is Reimer simply outplaying him?RE: Norris - supposedly not his shoulder but its an upper body injury they claim he picked up, but others claim he had when he was traded and was playing through. Its hockey so, we'll probably never know. I'd imagine since the season is completely lost that they're just being careful with an asset. They just traded for him and I'm not sure he's locked in on this team for 2025-2026.
RE: UPL - Yes, Reimer is playing better than him and deserves majority of starts here on out.
UPL Last 5
-
42 minutes ago, Jorcus said:
Yes the skating issue is a big problem. He never was very fast but post injury he is even slower than he was. He only has 53 speed bursts above 20 mph. Most top 6 forwards have twice as many for the amount of games he has played. His one real asset is his shot but in order to get it off he has to be in the clear and that just does not happen all that often. He is a hesitant pick a spot shooter to often the lane closes on him as he is aiming on the goal. He needs to one time more shots.
The other issue is he does nothing else to help the team. No penalty kill time, no face offs, low hit counts. If your only asset is your ability to score you better be scoring. There are a number Rochester guys aiming for his spot. If any of them were right handed shots they might have taken it already.
Seems pretty spot on to me. Better skating can get him into better positions to win some puck battles that drive possession as well, being late puts less pressure on the opponent. Felt like line with cozens was always bogged down turning it over behind the net, then having to hustle back on defense.
-
2 hours ago, shrader said:
I was just looking at that earlier today. It’s crazy that the line in the east is 10 points behind the west. Part of that is due to the west teams having played a few more games, but it’s still a huge gap.
Probably the most frustrating aspect of this season. It was totally do-able, but Buffalo lost 14 straight games. You really can't make that up unless you win like 10 in a row.
-
Just now, Brawndo said:
The fear is he plays well the remaining games and GMKA decides he finally found Power’s Partner without exploring any other options
He's the top RHD in the org at the moment on day one, which is pretty sad.
-
19 minutes ago, shrader said:
Football is so different though. You’re not calling up your prospect QB from the minors when Trent Edwards checks down yet another pass.
Oh of course, rosters are considerably longer. I just mean... the "lets see the young players because we are out of the playoffs" isn't really a fair solution.
-
Just now, shrader said:
This morning on XM they were questioning why a team would play Reimer 3 straight games because it doesn’t help anyone’s development. I get that angle, but don’t you still need to send the message to all these young players that good play will be rewarded? Yeah, you’re not developing the 37 year old goalie, but he’s earned these games.
Yeah... during the bills playoff drought people similarly want to see young guys play and i think a lot of what changed under McDermott was that you needed to earn your stripes. And if someone else is outplaying you, you lose playing time as a result. Where you were drafted does not matter once the pads go on.
-
On 3/23/2025 at 9:51 AM, Jorcus said:
Comparing Dahlin to Makar is like comparing Messier to Gretzky. Both great but in different ways. Dahlin has more power and 2 way play. He will fight you and throw you on the ice. Makar is better with his stick. He is quicker and handles the puck with speed. Both exceptional talents.
I think most people around here under rate Byram. He is only 23 years old and has played 232 NHL games. Dahlin started earlier but he really started to blossom after he played 200 games. Byram is fast, He carries the puck well, he is a very good passer. Considering he is on the 2nd power play unit he plays a lot of minutes.
At 30 years old you could say Devon Towes is better than Byram right now. Towes never even started playing in the NHL hockey until he was 24 years old. He is about as good as he will ever be. In the long run If Byram stays healthy he will have a way better career.
I am pretty convinced we are going to lose Byram. Adams or whomever better get something really good in return. We can't give him up for draft picks. He is worth a lot.
I think not wanting draft compensation in trades is part of why the deadline was quieter than it probably should have been.
-
1
-
-
9 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:
Reading some Minny boards and it sounds like Rossi will be traded. There biggest thing is rumors that he wants $9 million on a long term deal.
What if JJ’s ask is $9 million a year? He is a top line scorer and the cap is going up. Is that a crazy ask? Do you move him or sign him?
I think JJ and Byram will be offer sheet targets if not signed or traded early.
Why wouldn't buffalo just match any offer sheets? Or negotiate rights trades for players instead of future picks?
Anything over 9.1M comes with a price - 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd and you have to have the 1/2/3 for 2026.
-
On 3/26/2025 at 9:44 AM, mjd1001 said:
Maybe the reason he is playing poorly is because he was trying to hard as you said above. That may be true...but if it is...it still leads to him not being good enough. You don't want it to happen again to another goalie, and it may not be UPL's fault..but he is playing so poortly it is currently an issue for this team.
A lot of the success last year was due to UPL's good play at the end of the season. He was one of the top 5 goalies in the league the 2nd half of the season.
From Jan 1 last year until the end of the season, UPL had 4 shutouts, 25 games with a save percentage over .900 (including 9 games in a row at one point), and 19 games with a save percentage about .920. And they weren't all easy games. 15 times he faced over 30 shots, a couple times over 40 shots. Only 2 times did he have a save percentage of .850 or less. A 25 game to 2 game ratio in his favor of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below.
This year since Jan 1, he has 1 shutout, only 8 games with a save percentage over .900, and only 6 with a save percentage over .920. 10 games he has a save percentage below .850. A 8 game to 10 game ratio against him in terms of of games with a saver percentage over .900 vs .850 or below.
Maybe the team plays differently in front of Reimer, but since Jan 1, Reimer has played in 8 games. 7 of those 8 he has a save percentage over .900. (and those games are among games against Edmonton, Carolina, Winnipeg, and Ottawa, and NONE of the bottom 5 teams in the league)
For those saying UPL's failures this year are a result of how bad the team is in front of him....the numbers on Reimer aren't just with 1 or 2 games anymore...once you get to 8 games played, you have to wonder is it REALLY the team just sucking in front of UPL but not in front or Reimer? or is it actually UPL?
I don't want to get rid of UPL yet. We know he has it in him to potentially be a very good goaltender. It actually happened last year. But he has been a major problem with this team this year. Get to the offseason. If you have a phantom injury let it heal. Get your head back on straight. Because while I want him to probably be the starter next year, if he plays next year like he has this year, then there is a major issue. Its not all on the team in front of him, most of his issues are his.
We also lost 14 straight games and he was in for... a lot of them. The team has certainly not helped him on goals this year, but he has been a hectic mess back there. Rebound control, Angles, puck tracking, etc. All of it is messy.
It's his net to lose for next year, and he's currently in the process of losing it. Outside of one strong stretch, the guy has not performed well really at any level here including the AHL.
-
1
-
1
-
-
If you're going after Pettersson, i would have to think you'd move norris. They get a center who's cheaper (but still overpaid) and gets them out of that pettersson contract, and he gets a change of scenery. Buffalo would have to add in some stuff to make it work, maybe quinn or rosen.
I'd have to think free agency plays out first, but i expect most of the centers stay pretty far from buffalo. Anyone of value in their 30s is probably chasing a cup, so they probably don't answer the phone when Buffalo calls.
-
52 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
Short life span? He coached at Philly for 3 years, that is about the average life span for Terry Pegula coaches.
Let's not forget that Torts strung together 6 years at Tampa, 5 years at NYR, 6 years at CBJ. He took on a lot of rebuilds too.
770 wins
Two time Coach of the Year
One Stanley Cup
You don't like him, ok. But you can't rewrite history.
The only thing I can agree with is that he could never work for Terry. That would be impossible, Torts says way too many bad words.
Briere inherited Torts. This was inevitable.
Drury seems to be struggling after a fast start.
They're definitely teetering in a tough spot, they're like the same team they were last year when they looked really good so its hard to want to change "too" much. But Lafreniere is getting a huge raise, as is shesterkin, even borgen is getting a raise - then you have Miller and Cuylle as RFA's and not a lot of cap room. Interested to see how they manuever this mess with NMC's on panarin, mika and JT miller.
-
22 hours ago, In The Buff said:
I cant help but think that i wish we still had Cozens. Not so much for what he brings on the ice, but simply to still have him as a potential trade piece for someone who could actually be useful.
KA trading Cozens for Norris, a player who costs more & doesn't play at all, has seemingly put us in a worse position. At least before you could still trade Cozens. Wtf are we going to do with Norris if this is par for the course for him (which given his injury history it has been)?
I just don't understand why KA thought taking on this much risk was a wise idea. Surely there was an option available that wasn't as much of one?
So on 1 hand I'd like to see major changes but at the same time, change for the sake of change isn't always a good thing... in fact it could make your situation worse... like this Norris deal is looking like right now.
I pray Option #3 is what takes place, as it all starts at the top & unless we improve there, we'll likely not improve elsewhere.
I don't think Bernard-docker is going to light the world on fire by any means, but he's probably the best RHD in the organization now. By far the best RHD from an upside perspective, as cliftons at his ceiling and it's... not great.
From a trade chip perspective you have:
Byram - RFA - LHD when we have too many, top 5 pick pedigree, probably would score more with PP time.
Power - already extended LHD, top overall pick, still working on his game. He'd probably net more than byram in a trade, but i don't see how you keep both with Dahlin running PP1.
Tuch - 1 year remaining on his deal, and its very affordable. Would be a target of pretty much anyone in the league.
Norris - Fairly large contract, but he's a center who can shoot. He was probably hurt when we got here, and they're either being careful because we suck and there's no point in re-injury, or they don't want him to be hurt during the offseason.
JJP - RFA - Probably the biggest chip, steadily improving point totals and passes the eye test. Moving him would want to net a really good return.
Quinn - RFA - Worst season of his career and also struggled to stay healthy at times. Skating and conditioning haven't been great, and he's just not a physical puck battler. If you move him you're likely getting little in return, or a bad contract for a decent player.
Rosen - Winger whos approaching 200 games in the AHL, and will be 23 next season. Either move him, or move someone above and put him on the ice. Another year in the AHL and he's pretty much jost.
Östlund - Still learning the NA game, former first rounder, not sure how much value he has, i'd put it at less than the pick he was used for though.
I don't expect them to move all of these players. The team needs a 1C (especially if you want to continue using thompson on the wing), and players who can help keep the puck out of the net. They have a number of RFAs and 22M in cap space on the projected cap. If they extended byram, JJP, Quinn, levi, and bernard docker they would still likely have a good amount of space to play in free agency as well.
I do think 2 of the players above move and byram seems like the likely candidate over power. I'm just not sure who the trade targets could be that improve the team today. The team really needs to hit on a big free agent.
-
Just now, tom webster said:
I have this conversation over and over with friends. When I was younger, “insiders” were regarded with reverence, their word gospel. I long ago realized most of them are less informed than members of this board. Brawndo knows more about what’s going on than any of them. LGRM and others follow prospects more then anyone else I’ve come in contact with that wasn’t employed by a franchise.
I'd agree. There's too much hockey to claim they've watched enough of this guy to make a decision one way or another. Regular stats won't show how ineffective he's been, or how ineffective he's made those who play with him. Advanced stats will show some of that... but there's an advanced metric that will also say he's good... thats how the advanced metrics work.
I feel like I've watched enough of this guy to know he's not that good, and committing him to your franchise for years isn't going to push the needle from irrelevance.
-
6 hours ago, tom webster said:
This take is from the same Canadian “insiders” who couldn’t understand how Buffalo gave up Savoie for McLoud. They have inflated opinion of guys that they were formerly high on.
Buffalo gave up a second in 2026 because they got the two better players. Time will bear that out. One thing for sure though, no one will now how good that second round pick will be for five years.
Savoie was surpassed by benson at wing, and by Kulich at C. He is already 21 and was going to be buried in the minors this season behind Kulich as a potential call-up. Buffalo wanted a Center who can play today, and edmonton needed to shed an RFA who was about to get paid (bouchard's likely to get paid, and mcdavid is on his last year).
I tend to agree on the 2nd point - norris is a better player when healthy, than cozens. When healthy is already showing up to be an issue, but Cozens played 300+ games here. He is not a PPG player that the media and ottawa fans want him to be, he doesn't make smart or quick decisions with the puck, he is a poor shooter, inconsistent passer, and doesn't seem to see the ice like a center should. He wasn't a good enough creator distributor or finisher, and will always rely on linemates.
I saw enough of gilbert to know he was just another stillman, or fitzgerald - he's 28, and he's a lefty. There really was no plan for him other than back to rochester, and in my opinion he literally added nothing to the trade. Bernard-docker is 24 and a former first round pick who's already played more games than gilbert. If you look at it like a 2nd round pick for him, its probably an overpay - but they do maintain some player control with a RHD.
-
8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Maybe but this is just Adams getting an RFA depth D man for his UFA depth D man. Adams likes that element of control for obvious reasons.
The thing about the trade that boggled the minds of Ottawa fans was why Buffalo also gave up a 2nd round pick. They all seemed to feel this was a crazy win for them.
Because Ottawa scouts have actually watched cozens play?
-
Why is the sound quality on MSG similar to what you would get watching a high school game? Like everything about this team is so low budget.
-
1
-
-
25 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
Because Kulich/Rosen/Quinn will get dominated by good teams 4th line, especially on defensive zone draws, and they would be vulnerable on the road were the home team gets the last line change.
Instead of using the NHL team for player development, lets have a real "shut down line" that actually does shut the opponent down, and actually helps the team win games instead for blowing leads in the 3rd period. That starts at center. Lets improve the center spline, and then we can build the lines out.
I just feel like we brought up too many young kids too early, and now you have one thats... "ready" (200ish AHL games over 3 years, 22 years old) and we as fans are reluctant to promote him because the team is too young.
I guess my thought and point is that... kulich and rosen shouldn't be blocked because other young players were brought up and the team floundered. Every team has a spot for younger players to come up, and they usually don't end up on the top 6 wing.
Will Devon Levi Help Make This Team Better Next Year?
in The Aud Club
Posted
I mean... you can't plan to use him for 50 games when he hasn't even started 40 total in his career. But it's also short-sighted to say he should be in the AHL. Just put the guys out there who give you the best chance to win.
He's hovering around 100 professional games now between AHL and NHL, and while his NHL season this year was a failure he bounced back in the AHL. Not sure how that goes with other goalies in development, but it feels about right?
UPL this season has played 1 month of hockey where his sv% was above .900, and in 15 games in february and march he has a save % of .850. I know we gave him a contract, and seeing guys like swayman struggle behind a bad team makes you know it isn't all on him. But man... he freaking sucks sometimes.
He's all over the place and never looks comfortable. Still struggles with the shortside crap that drives me insane, especially at his size angles are so important and he's so not disciplined. Rebound control. He's lost out there with the PK. Like if anyone needs some time in the AHL to work on their game its probably UPL tbh. He's worse now than at the start of the year, like he's been spending time at the carter hutton academy of blind goaltending.