Drag0nDan

Right - so i'd say they're better off finding an upgrade on the wing. If the current Top 3 Centers are Kulich, Norris, Mcleod - with Tage as the... norris injury replacement depth Wingers - Thompson, Tuch, JJP, Quinn, Zucker, Benson - Any changes on the wing basically requires one of these players to be shipped out as none of these players really fit on a 4th line. Realistically moving an RFA JJP contract is probably the best chip since an acquiring team can lock him up for a few years.

He started 8 games this year... if you look at goalies with 10 or fewer games they mostly are either fluctuating in one direction or another.

I just don't see a way to get a 1C anywhere in a trade - so these "Trade Quinn, Kulich whomever" for a new center doesn't really work.

I'm for finding a top 6 center or winger or whatever. Try and use the abundance of picks and prospects to add someone to the team who can make a real impact. And upgrade whatever we have going on in net. You look at all the bad teams in the league, and bad goaltending is a problem for more than half of them. Whats the big trade chip there that goes out to bring in someone new? Is it JJP? Tuch? Quinn? Byram? Once you add someone everyone else slots differently so it probably means a sabre today has to be moving out in that trade.

Rantanen and Johnston signing makes me want to figure out how to get Robertson. I just don't see Marner coming here, and Buffalo should have the ammo potentially. I assume it'd be the traditional player, prospect, pick type of move - and if dallas were looking to create extra space they could probably throw in dumba. JJP or Tuch - I assume they'd prefer a younger player, but tuch would probably be cheaper in 2025. Rosen Kulich or Östlund - Probably looking for a prospect whos closer to ready 1st round pick

I'd probably identify the players I'm most inclined to trade Byram - Another lefty, top 5 pick pedigree, and RFA in line for a raise. Probably the most valuable trade chip. I'm not sure i see a reason to keep both him and power. Rosen - Pretty much graduated prospect, but does this team need another 22 year old? Kulich, Benson, Quinn, JJP are all like 24 or under. Good AHL numbers, he should have some value in a trade. Quinn - His value is lower than it was before his injury issues and his generally terrible 24-25 campaign. I don't think its a take your pick between him and rosen because they have different skill sets. RFA as well, i would probably bridge if you could - similar to what they did with Tage, but likely a tad more expensive. UFA 2029. JJP - Gonna be a substantial raise but the guy's played really well for us at times. If moved he'd need to bring back a quality player. Östlund - Not quite graduation ready - but if you're moving a player, prospect, and pick in a trade - he's probably up there with Rosen as a high value prospect trade chip. Kulich - I feel like his development is what made savoie expendable so I'm inclined to keep him. He's also dirt cheap through 2027. Not untradeable for right return. UPL - Well he flat out stunk this year.. but I don't think he's utterly worthless either. I don't know what Levi is, but I find it hard to believe he can't be better than UPL's last 30 starts. San Jose maybe? I know they have a young guy in Askarov who isn't quite ready, and the team is not close to being competitive. No one under contract. Maybe you could sell it to them as part of a move for Ferraro? Samuelsson - I'd say he has little to no value because of his contract, but the league isn't blind to the fact that most players leave buffalo and play better. Lean into that 🙂. If that doesn't work, he's gotta be a buyout candidate imo. It would be a 714k cap hit for the next 10 years which is less than an ELC. He's not worth the current 4.2M cap hit - you also save 14M in cash. Not going to be able to move all of these players - but i'd prioritize moving UPL to figure out the players you want in net. What might it take to pry Robertson from Dallas for example (no clause, and an RFA in 2026 so if he doesn't want an extension you can definitely get a lot of the traded value back by moving him in the next 2 years)? Heiskanen, Rantanen, Seguin, Hintz, Oettinger, and Johnston are all making 8M+, and Robertson is an RFA in 2026, so looking at some level of a raise soon.. Looking at their roster they probably aren't looking for a Byram (Heiskanen, lindell and harley are all lefties), but does JJP (will command less than 7.75M AAV for a few seasons) and either a rosen/Östlund (ELC player in their early 20's) and a pick fit the bill? Another idea could be working some kind of deal with the rangers who will probably want to re-tool. Miller and byram swap lefties (and skill-sets), and maybe try and figure out how to get Schneider RHD or Cuylle in the deal. Shesterkin, Fox, Panarin, zib, miller all make 8M+. Lafreniere's extension kicks off this year and he has no trade protection, but i think they'd probably more trocheck and Kreider who have m-ntc's (so not candidates to be moved to buffalo).

Östlund could probably use another year in the A imo - something closer to 100 games with some IR call-ups would make more sense to have him in position to snag a roster spot going into 26-27.

I don't hate it - i just worry they'd add another 8M+ contract at defense. If they did it, it seems like he could at least help with keeping some pucks out of the net as well.

Dobson as a RFA is interesting, i just worry you're swapping overpaying byram for overpaying Dobson. Bruins might, Lindholm won't (full NMC).

I think my worry with someone like shane wright is... he's the same age as all the other guys. Östlund and Kulich came from his draft, Rosen the year before, and Quinn and JJP the year before that. Why would we trade for a player the same age and position as Kulich when we already have Kulich (i'm aware they have vastly different games)? I like it better than draft compensation, but there's a lot of ups and downs with young players and you'd need to be really sure that this was the year where you expect him to break out as an NHL player.

Thompson being underpaid shouldn't have anything to do with Tuch. Thompson was also an RFA when he signed, and wasn't a projected UFA until after the 24-25 season. Buying out his RFA years gets him money up front, guaranteed money, and buffalo gets a discount on the UFA years. Escalating cap situation but some comparables (Not all were UFA's when signed and not all were signed in the last year or two, some are centers etc.) Guentzel - 9M AAV Wilson - 6.5M AAV Scheifele - 8.5M AAV Reinhart - 8.625M AAV Hertl - 8.1375M AAV Kadri - 7M AAV Forsberg - 8.5M AAV Toffoli - 6M AAV Stamkos - 8M AAV Horvat - 8.5M AAV I'd expect he pushes for 8 plus with term.

Kulich aint even 21 yet either so there's potential there as well.

I think they do the cap year to year. You can project a lot of it out with escalating TV contracts, but there's other pieces of revenue that is shared between all teams. There's also a certain revenue share - well say 50/50 to be easy. The cap is a reflection of that 50/50 revenue share, so 100M cap would in that scenario be 320M of shared league revenue with the players. You then factor in... NHLPA pensions, benefits, NHLPA employees etc. and that's all probably factored in as well on a year to year basis as per the current CBA.

This is like getting mad about gordon bombay for playing for the hawks when he was 10.

I'm liking seeing tuch and mcleod looking for tip ins more frequently. If team's are forcing you to shoot from the perimeter then make it harder to see, get some tips and rebounds. I feel like every line needs that, and every d-pair needs a shooter.

He's definitely still a young goalie in his age 23 season. 6 goalies have played in games this year in the NHL age 22 or under. 4 of those 6 have started 2 or fewer games. 2 of them (cossa and wallstedt) are former first round picks, and at least 2 of those players only appeared because the starter was pulled. 16 goalies 23 or under (age year for levi this year) have started games this year, 8 have started more than 10 games, and only 2 have started more than 20 games. One is a first round pick in Spencer Knight, and the other is Dustin Wolf. Wolf is actually smaller than Levi, and was also drafted in the 7th round (albeit in 2019 vs. 2020). Feels like a marathon, not a sprint - but I do think that after 150 games its pretty clear to me that UPL is not going to carry this team. If Levi doesn't need to clear waivers it makes him the easy candidate to spend time in the AHL again next year, but I think it'd be stupid to give UPL another 50 games. I don't think they're going to be able to get anyone particularly notable unless they want to try and make a run at demko, and if they do that i hope they send UPL back in the trade. And even then, Demko's only on a 1 year deal. Free agency is full of reimer types, and the trade market doesn't really have a ton of players on it that make sense to trade.

They've definitely been outshot in every one of those games considerably so the corsi makes sense. I'm not sure exactly how xGF% is calculated but i know being closer to the net tends to result in a higher xGF%, and i'd imagine more shots in general tilts that statistic.

I mean... you can't plan to use him for 50 games when he hasn't even started 40 total in his career. But it's also short-sighted to say he should be in the AHL. Just put the guys out there who give you the best chance to win. He's hovering around 100 professional games now between AHL and NHL, and while his NHL season this year was a failure he bounced back in the AHL. Not sure how that goes with other goalies in development, but it feels about right? UPL this season has played 1 month of hockey where his sv% was above .900, and in 15 games in february and march he has a save % of .850. I know we gave him a contract, and seeing guys like swayman struggle behind a bad team makes you know it isn't all on him. But man... he freaking sucks sometimes. He's all over the place and never looks comfortable. Still struggles with the shortside crap that drives me insane, especially at his size angles are so important and he's so not disciplined. Rebound control. He's lost out there with the PK. Like if anyone needs some time in the AHL to work on their game its probably UPL tbh. He's worse now than at the start of the year, like he's been spending time at the carter hutton academy of blind goaltending.

Miller had 8 in 04-05 FWIW, it just wasn't the outright league lead.

He was also the 4th center on the oilers behind mcdavid draisaitl and RNH. His linemates were likely some of the weaker wings on the team. I'm not sure how that factors into shooting percentage, shot selection, or just generally how many shots you generate in that scenario. Derek Ryan is by probably every analytic not generating a lot of scoring chances. Ditto for Janmark. Connor Brown. 2nd year Holloway (also what a great offer sheet that turned out to be for St. Louis). I don't know for sure who his common linemates were, but i'd assume some combination of all of these guys. So i always think shooting percentage raw is tough to evaluate - and how much of a drag on his numbers these might have been.

No one. Factoring in trade clauses, its less than no one. They are either a legit #1 and the team is in it, or they probably just re-upped. Oettinger, Hill, Saros, Vejmelka, Swayman, Blackwood, Thompson/Lindgren, and Daccord all extended. I can't see any of those teams wanting to swap contracts for UPL - even with solid sweeteners in there. I'm not sure there's anyone even available that's worth trading for. I think the entire list is just Demko, but he's on an expiring deal and has been battling injuries all season since the playoffs a year ago. I'm not saying he's washed, i just doubt he'd re-up here. They will need to get lucky in free agency, hope UPL plays considerably better, or Levi wins the crease by playing well.

Good question... He'll be 23 and he signed and played in 22-23. His entry-level 3 year deal is expired. He's played fewer than 60 NHL games, so i think he has one more year of waiver exemption. https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/waivers Once a player 20+ Age plays 1 Professional Game, that is considered the first year (Levi was 21) The chart on there says he signed at 21, and has not exceeded 60 NHL starts, so by that measure he should be exempt for 4 years.

I just don't know why they kept riding UPL. Levi struggled out of the gate in a backup role, they got reimer back and sent levi down (i think he spot started somewhere during the losing streak). But as the season wore on and you were pretty much getting consistent AHL goaltending at the NHL level, they never felt like trying something different? Reimer or even Levi for that matter. Reimer finishes back to back games during the losing streak after UPL gets pulled. Obviously gets the 3rd start on the back to back with the starter essentially melting down. Reimer then starts 3 games in january and february - and puts up a greater than .900 sv% in all 4 appearances (UPL was pulled against carolina). UPL started 15 games - 9 of which his sv% was under .900%. The team went 9-6-1 during these starts but every time they lost they gave up 5 or more goals. UPL is 3-7 in december. His fall-off from November through the rest of the year is just... brutal (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/luukkuk01/splits/2025). It's impossible to win with these numbers. Consistently inconsistent.

December was something else though, killed the entire season before 2025 even started.

They never say in hockey, but i feel like they wouldn't have said it wasn't a shoulder if it was. My guess is some type of core muscle type of thing that probably needs offseason surgery.