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Everything posted by Marvin
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What we’ve learned from the Jack Eichel conclusion
Marvin replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Welcome back. And there is a lot of truth in what you say. -
GDT: Sabres at Washington, Nov. 8, 2021, 7pm, MSG, WGR
Marvin replied to Eleven's topic in The Aud Club
Injury-depleted, on the road, and overmatched. It sure might feel that way. -
Pizza, wings, beef on weck. Start with that.
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It's like Brad May. You have to have some skill to hang about that long.
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I'm Hen-er-y the VIII I am.
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As someone who is more into (adjusted) plus-minus than most, you need some context. The first point is the most important, but the ones after it are salient as well. 1. The +/- for most of the other forwards was even worse than Eichel. The difference between the Sabres when Eichel was on the ice and when Eichel was off the ice was mind-bogglingly wide. That points the finger at the GM because it proves much of the rest of the roster sucked. In particular, there was inadequate defence and goaltending. 2. Until they learn to backcheck effectively, offencive forwards often start their years in the debit column for +/- unless your team has defencively responsible but skilled forwards to put on his line. 3. Over the history of the league (I have statistics going back to 1967-8), talented players on bad teams -- particularly young ones -- are almost always worse than average in adjusted +/- because the team is behind and give up not only empty net goals, but a lot of extra-man rushes because they are pressing to score -- even the most defencively responsible of them. 4. The easiest way to have made Eichel's +/- better was to get some very good veteran defencemen and solid goaltending. I have stats going back to the 1920's, where teams made big jumps in the standings and offencive players got better results because of improved defence and goaltending. Think of hockey as having its version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. The raw numbers we collect can not tell the whole story because you can't dissociate the player from the team. Players who go from bad teams to good ones often see a gigantic bump in their statistics no matter how good they are -- and the best see the adjusted +/- soar, sometimes by over 40 goals. For instance, in 1971-2, Gil Perreault was -39. In 1972-73, he was +10. Sure, he improved, but the team around him slashed almost 100 goals against off the previous year's total. That was not all Gil Perreault. That was Tim Horton, Don Luce, and numerous other players.
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Do You Think The Sabres Top Brass Sees This As A “Tank” Season?
Marvin replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
Getting used to the idiosyncrasies of being a head coach. I remember the late Elijah Pitts talking about it when Marv Levy had surgery and had to miss a few games. -
Do You Think The Sabres Top Brass Sees This As A “Tank” Season?
Marvin replied to bob_sauve28's topic in The Aud Club
It is also a learning year for our coach. -
I think that the lack of NHL players on the NHL roster for his entire tenure here has far more to do with the Sabres' problems than Eichel or anyone else did. Murray gave us a lack of depth and bad defences. Botterill gave us improving defences and awful forwards. Adams have him lousy goaltending. Not once in his entire tenure here did Eichel ever have a line-up even as good as the one which just went 1-3 on this last West Coast trip. That is a damning indictment of the GMs for Eichel's entire tenure here. Whatever his problems were, management never gave him the supporting cast he needed to succeed. In fact, almost no one could have elevated the team to a playoff spot in his stead.
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I hope this is like when I saw Rochester games during The Great Lockout, where the visions and dreams I had of those players in the NHL came true.
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What I think they should do is go with a shorter schedule and/or conference-only schedule in Olympic years. Have the schedule be 6x7 in division + 4x8 in conference, or something to save on wear-and-tear. Sure, it would suck to not see the other conference's stars, but it would make for better hockey.
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First, welcome to the board. Second, it's $6M cap, but $1M in actual money. When the Sabres activate Tuch, they will need to send a player to Rochester, which would put them under the cap. They also need some flexibility if they trade players for picks if they are sellers at the TDL (oh, please, let us be close enough to not want to do this...).
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I expect some will stay. It is really a question of what other teams will want.
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Same here. I was always afraid of this when The Tank was announced, was very concerned with the scorched-earth and salted terrain policy of those years, and disliked the "acceleration" of the rebuild. All of these things plus some questionable personnel, coaching, and management decisions kept the Sabres in the hole we had dug for ourselves. Result: The Lost Decade.
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My impression was that even before the season, when the Sabres signed players to compete "now", it was in an effort to help convince Jack to say. Maybe I am wrong, but that was my inference. You can question the strategy -- whether or not it is a good idea is a genuinely open question. To be honest, a rebuild of a rebuild of a rebuild has a whiff of fishiness to it -- and I am neutral to on-board with most of GMKA's moves.
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A few points -- not to criticise your point of view, but to give you a bit of perspective. 1. Eichel wanted out. (As did Reinhart and Ristolainen, for that matter.) So, as you said, we were going to lose this trade, so the best we can hope for is to mitigate the losses. 2. I am very leery of the ADR. I hope it goes well for him because the worst case scenario is that he becomes paralysed at a later date. I don't wish that on anyone no matter how I feel about them. 3. Tuch and Krebs are not "crap". They are lesser talents than Eichel, but then again, so were Michael Peca and Jay McKee relative to Alexander Mogilny. I doubt anyone would want to undo that trade. Maybe we get lucky again.
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Adams can have no choice about trading Eichel (Eichel said he asked before last season), yet still be at fault for how he handled it, what the return is, and how the trade turns out long-term. Yes, he was dealt a tough hand, but I expect him to play it as best he could. So far, the word that comes to mind is "so far, passable." If it goes to pot, then it's a failure.
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Maybe this will end the idiotic spiteful narratives around him and the area. The team is another story.