Broken Ankles

I was just thinking about this point tonight. Do you think he was even with TT coming out of camp but Tage was part of a certain trade, and that was a deciding factor? I hate to think JB uses “his guy” vs “my guy” with prospects or players. JB guys like Bergland, Vlad, Tage, Scandella, Beaulieu, and Mitts......Disasters. I’d really hate to use Nylander as a ‘thrown in’ part of a trade (a la Guehle) this summer and he pans out.

Which he should on principle alone. If it goes past July 1st. He better have Plan B in motion when the clock strikes 12.

I'm not an advanced metric guy either. As part of the of the older generation on the board, I refrain from referencing but I was curious to see how the On Ice stats compared to what I was viewing since the Nylander call up. I just thought that line (+ERod + Sheary) was buzzing. I really would not be upset if they were a #3 line next year, with a new 2C (JT Miller trade?) centering Reinhart (RW)and M. Ferland (LW) as a second forward line.

How about some "fancy stats" to go along with @dudacek observations? The first is from Hockey Viz showing the utter domination of the Conor/Evan/Alex line against Carolina. Red being a good thing. Here is their on ice stats for Carolina. They had the best CF% and FF% of all Sabres forwards. And Nylander wasn't on the ice for the Goal against. Lastly note the HDCF% for this line. Fancy stat guys always suggest these will lead to more goal scoring. He was 7 to 1 in Carolina. Here is the on Ice stats against St. Louis. While the numbers bear out, as does the eye test, that our first line did create a lot of scoring opportunities with a high 60% CF, the E-Rod line did better, as they were comparable in CF% and responsible for 2 goals 5v5 (Nylander with 2 primary assists). In fact, looking at the HDCF%, our first line was "lucky" not to get scored against giving up twice as many chances and not generating enough. Numbers don't lie, right?

+1. Fans have had so little to cheer for in 2019 it was great to see emotion in the building during the 3rd/OT/SO.

Sheary-Rodrigues-Nylander line playing ok for second night in a row. I’ve jumped the Shark on Ristolainen. Time has come to move on.

The only thing a line with ‘17’ as Center would be the “best” at is negative goal differential. Regardless of his pairings he is just no good. He needs to be bought out and erased from our memory banks. And if not Rochester Line #1, then 37 should be line #4. Adding two scorers would not improve his skill sets. Skinner scores because of Jack. 37 was a fail at 2C. He would get crushed as 1C.

Agree with assessment on Murray, but not better than Darcy. Darcy made some horrible trades, bad signings, and was rightfully fired In 2013....however he lasted 16 years as a GM, had three great seasons, and had incredible success in the later rounds of the draft. For most of the 2000’s, players he drafted (and possibly traded too- which loses credit) had far more games played and more points than players drafted by his peers. He also worked for two regimes that were cash strapped and forced to make questionable decisions with team salary. He also was hired almost immediately after his firing in Buffalo. Doubtful Murray gets anything other than scout (if he can stay off the sauce) in years to come. 2016 maybe too early to call, but his other drafts were a bust. He is by far the worst GM in Sabres history...so far.

I guess we have to define underwhelming. Smith only played 11 games, scored two goals and did not have a negative +/-. He showed better than Sobotka, Zemgus, Elie, Tage and better than Sherie for stretches. But the entire Sabres team was “underwheming” so maybe he qualifies. For me, he was sent back only b/c you have so many other commitments. And to develop on a winning team in Roch. Next year, I would much rather qualify Smith and cut bait with some other RFA’s. For me this call up is different than all of the others we have seen this year. Based on the players age, draft selection and where they fit organizationally. I hope Phil Housley gives this kid a fair shake in terms of line combination, although past history suggests this probably will not happen. We all know Nylander is not JB’s guy, so maybe there is a bit of a microscope to see if he has any future here. Might also be a good move for ratings. I know I’ll watch, and not so sure I could have said that yesterday post game.

McDavid got two. Jack gets two.

Ferland shoots L and plays LW, same as Skinner. Therefore not playing on the first line. I would still love to see him him on the Left with Sam and real 2C. As in JT Miller, Hayes, etc. And if $5m AAV is overpaying, i’m in.

I’m surprised to see so few comments regarding the Dahlin hit to Rantanen. Quite aggressive game by Dahlin. Nice to see him show some heart. He could see a game or fine for the elbow to the head.

I’ll take any of them, as they are all clearly superior to Gilbert, Rick, Danny et al. ?

In Rochester

I respect many of his other takes. Just saying I cannot see any GM/pro scout looking at this guy and saying “Yeah, I need some that”. and willing to take on a $3.5m cap hit on top of it. Do you?

There is no way anyone takes Vlad without a “sweetener”. He should be bought out in June. My only concern is that he isn’t b/c he is tied to a certain trade, and the optics would confirm a sense of failure for JB. A good market trader recognizes a bad investment and is not afraid to sell. A great trader recognizes a bad investment and “short sells”. In this analogy going one step beyond a Vlad buyout is starting Tage in Roch next year.

Robin, is that you?

Wilson scores? Patrick Kane gives puck up in his D zone to lose the game? Yes please.

Good stuff. I’ll add he double downed on the “right now” by suggesting Dahlin will be in his prime soon and Jack is in his prime now. I’ve shared this before but the timeline is not on Jack. JB has a plan to develop the blue line and it is tied to Rasmus playing first line minutes. I’ll reiterate your point. He is only 18. Drew Doughty dominated by year 3/4. Rasmus will do the same, but not next year either. He made a lot of other salient points, especially the goaltending (and I think you added and I agree - timely goaltending). Or was that Perrault Forever, I forget....... Some questionable decision on line ups by PH, sure. But our time is not right now. There is no acceleration needed.

Is there any data out there on defensive pairings/combinations relative to league average? Because it seems that PH changes far too frequently instead of keeping consistency. Injuries and call ups notwithstanding. I even see mid-game changes that are puzzling.

I assume you’re referencing Free Falling. But there are so many others that fit this motif. How about ‘break down’ or Even the Losers’? Or ‘Yer so bad’? Or ‘You got Lucky’ (on that 10 game streak)?

Don’t forget the two seconds to the two firsts in 2015 to make 4 picks in the top 43 in what was widely touted as a deep draft. I like LGR’s point that says the draft drops off at 20. Trading 4 picks in a deep draft vs 1 (and maintaining three) in a perceived shallow one is not irresponsible. But he needs to deliver. We could (and have) argued about the outside factors affecting the O’Reilly deal. There is no safety net of excuses in this trade. It simply must work.

Agreed. I think the fact he wasn’t traded means he has an intent to stay. Just think his agent now has “more hand” so to speak. In terms of AAV. As noted in multiple posts, JBs signings have been both hit and miss. He can not afford to lose this, giving advantage to Skinner.

He’s lost all his leverage. Skinner holds all the cards. His agent knows JB can not afford to lose him. He has seen what Stone was extended for in Vegas. I think it’s $9.1m/8 years or he tests.

Problem is 5 of them have contracts that extend into 2020 and beyond. I can see trading Scandella in the offseason and Sobotka could be a buyout candidate but it will take creativity to rid yourself of some of these.