Broken Ankles
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Posts posted by Broken Ankles
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5 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:
I think I see what you guys have been saying about Svoboda.
He’s dreaming of his June buyout......and so am I ?
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I guess PH didn’t get the “result” he was looking for, so change. I haven’t been on the fire Housley bandwagon but when you keep a line up bc you win and constantly change when you lose, that is not advanced level coaching.
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Can I blame Sobotka for abandonment? He should know where Gallagher is at all times, not leaving a 30 goal man alone.
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8 hours ago, Marchand'sNose said:
Ah, I see. Cap purgatory. Yes, this will be next season's excuse for JBot's incompetence. By cap purgatory, I assume you're referring to Bogo, Scandella, Sobotka, and Okposo. It should first be noted that Scandella and Sobotka are JBot's guys. Since Bogo and Scandella are serviceable vets on 1-year deals, they can still be traded for some sort of minimal return. That's over $9 million saved right there....Skinner's new contract. That still leaves the Sabres with over $28 million to pay any of Rodrigues, Girgensons, Larsson, and McCabe plus make improvements to this season's roster. So I'm not really seeing the cap purgatory here... the Sabres need to make the playoff in 2020 or JBot's job security should be in question.
I expect Sobotka to be bought out. Unmovable contract and friendly buy out. I expect Rasmus and Scandella to be traded. Assuming an $83M cap (modest 3-4M increase) we have $30.6 M after the Skinner deal. Obviously need to conserve some as Montour and Reinhart get extended. And Dahlin in 2021. But there are no shackles on JB this summer in my opinion. He has the cap space to get $hite done.
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1 hour ago, SwampD said:
And he's better all around than Tage already.
… who I'm also not ready to give up on yet.
I was just thinking about this point tonight. Do you think he was even with TT coming out of camp but Tage was part of a certain trade, and that was a deciding factor? I hate to think JB uses “his guy” vs “my guy” with prospects or players. JB guys like Bergland, Vlad, Tage, Scandella, Beaulieu, and Mitts......Disasters. I’d really hate to use Nylander as a ‘thrown in’ part of a trade (a la Guehle) this summer and he pans out.
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1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:
I agree and also heard that his agent wants over 9 so he is likely to go to July 1 and then when no one offers him more than 8 he will take our 8.5 over 8 years gladly - unless Botterill gets pissed off and drops it or offers it to someone else out of spite or anger.
Which he should on principle alone. If it goes past July 1st. He better have Plan B in motion when the clock strikes 12.
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23 minutes ago, SDS said:
I'm not a student of fancy stats, but thank you for pulling this info out for me! Greatly appreciated. I will try and make some sense of it. Glad to know there is some meat behind the praise.
I'm not an advanced metric guy either. As part of the of the older generation on the board, I refrain from referencing but I was curious to see how the On Ice stats compared to what I was viewing since the Nylander call up. I just thought that line (+ERod + Sheary) was buzzing. I really would not be upset if they were a #3 line next year, with a new 2C (JT Miller trade?) centering Reinhart (RW)and M. Ferland (LW) as a second forward line.
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14 hours ago, SDS said:
I thought it was an entertaining game. Watched on delay and didn’t give in to skipping to the end.
1. ROR was ok. He’s always been strong on the puck. That’s about the one thing that was remotely noticeable. That performance on a losing Sabres team would have gotten his ass chewed out by the fans.
2. Nylander’s pass was nice. I expect most nhl players could make that pass. He looks a little like Sam did back in those early days. I’m not going to dog him. However, I haven’t seen any glimpses of high end skill: speed, skating, shot, nor hands. If someone has a highlight to point to please provide.
3. A couple times today, and my impression is that it happens a lot, is when the other team takes the puck out of our corner, they are able to drive right in front of the net for a shot. Our player covering that spot (twice today) left the spot as the puck carrier was driving at them to try and pick up an open passing option. That don’t seem right.
3. Regardless of his scoring drought, I love Jeff Skinner. That’s high end skill.
4. I’m glad the fans had a good time.
Please give examples.
How about some "fancy stats" to go along with @dudacek observations? The first is from Hockey Viz showing the utter domination of the Conor/Evan/Alex line against Carolina. Red being a good thing.
Here is their on ice stats for Carolina. They had the best CF% and FF% of all Sabres forwards. And Nylander wasn't on the ice for the Goal against. Lastly note the HDCF% for this line. Fancy stat guys always suggest these will lead to more goal scoring. He was 7 to 1 in Carolina.
Here is the on Ice stats against St. Louis. While the numbers bear out, as does the eye test, that our first line did create a lot of scoring opportunities with a high 60% CF, the E-Rod line did better, as they were comparable in CF% and responsible for 2 goals 5v5 (Nylander with 2 primary assists). In fact, looking at the HDCF%, our first line was "lucky" not to get scored against giving up twice as many chances and not generating enough. Numbers don't lie, right?
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2 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:
So booing an opponent during a shootout is poor sportsmanship.
If you were an employer and an employee came in making others around him worse and telling you your company is making him lose his love for the career, you'd be fine with it?
I fear that many don't realize how bad Mr ROR was here, at least off ice. But that's not a conversation for now and this thread.
Anyways, I thought it was freaking awesome in that building last night, finally, and booing the everloving ***** outta ROR was a big part of it.
+1. Fans have had so little to cheer for in 2019 it was great to see emotion in the building during the 3rd/OT/SO.
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Sheary-Rodrigues-Nylander line playing ok for second night in a row. I’ve jumped the Shark on Ristolainen. Time has come to move on.
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3 hours ago, NAO said:
I have the exact same opinion now that I had after watching the first five games of the season regarding the line match-ups:
9 is a line onto himself -- he will get a lot of the checking attention -- there are many options for this jewel!
28 + 22 + scorer 43 -- checking line that can score -- I am nostalgic for a "Ramsey-Luce-Gare" kind of line!
37 should not be playing half the season with 21 -- to see if he really is the "replacement" for ROR -- play him with decent linemates -- why not the best linemates? 9 can play with these guys on the PP!
53 + 37 + 23 would score.
21 + 17 + 29 could be one of the best 4th lines in the league!
71 + 9 + 72 -- 71 + 9 played on the same line for a year in college -- they have played on the same line less than a hand-full of times as Sabres! (Bringing up Dan O'Reagan would reunite the college line completely.) -- 72 has a nice potential in front of the net with skill, speed and smarts, perhaps only needing the toughness of experience and age.
The only thing a line with ‘17’ as Center would be the “best” at is negative goal differential. Regardless of his pairings he is just no good. He needs to be bought out and erased from our memory banks.
And if not Rochester Line #1, then 37 should be line #4. Adding two scorers would not improve his skill sets. Skinner scores because of Jack. 37 was a fail at 2C. He would get crushed as 1C.
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On 3/12/2019 at 9:55 AM, LGR4GM said:
Now for the rest.
Botterill shouldn't have any picks drafted outside the first round ready to make the NHL. Next year, maybe but anything outside of the first is typically 3 years away.
You can't just remove a 10 game streak. Close wins area almost always a little flukey. We don't get to just take out large stretches of the season. It happened. Then their goaltending and defense fell apart and it snowballed to now.
He absolutely destroyed the farm system. Zadorov, Compher, 2 Firsts, 2 more 2nd rounders, all traded away. Those 2 firsts don't include Armia or Grigorenko that was just 2 first round picks we traded straight up. So by my count, 6 guys in 3 years were sent packing. That's a hard hit unless you draft really well, which Murray didn't. He was very average, better than Darcy but average. Botterill not trading all the firsts he acquired and holding onto some extra picks is wise. We need to build up the system so this never happens again. If we had done that at the 2015 draft, we would be a playoff team.
I do want to add that you are correct about hindsight. I didn't mind what Murray did at the time. I learned my lesson though. You have to draft and develop well or it doesn't matter what else you do.
Agree with assessment on Murray, but not better than Darcy. Darcy made some horrible trades, bad signings, and was rightfully fired In 2013....however he lasted 16 years as a GM, had three great seasons, and had incredible success in the later rounds of the draft. For most of the 2000’s, players he drafted (and possibly traded too- which loses credit) had far more games played and more points than players drafted by his peers. He also worked for two regimes that were cash strapped and forced to make questionable decisions with team salary. He also was hired almost immediately after his firing in Buffalo. Doubtful Murray gets anything other than scout (if he can stay off the sauce) in years to come. 2016 maybe too early to call, but his other drafts were a bust. He is by far the worst GM in Sabres history...so far.
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5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
I don't think this is anything more than giving people a look. Sometimes players surprise at a different level, they just fit. Smith looked like he could step up and was underwhelming. Nylander hasn't impressed but maybe there's some surprise magic. Unlikely, but who knows, as a team you have to give guys periodic looks just to keep them believing you remember they exist.
Don't know why they've never given Olofsson a look, but I don't see Rochester games so I leave that up to those who see more of them. Personally, at this stage I'd be rotating every major prospect we had just to see what they have (wasn't the whole point of having a farm team close by was to allow you to send players back and forth easily?)
I guess we have to define underwhelming. Smith only played 11 games, scored two goals and did not have a negative +/-. He showed better than Sobotka, Zemgus, Elie, Tage and better than Sherie for stretches. But the entire Sabres team was “underwheming” so maybe he qualifies. For me, he was sent back only b/c you have so many other commitments. And to develop on a winning team in Roch. Next year, I would much rather qualify Smith and cut bait with some other RFA’s.
For me this call up is different than all of the others we have seen this year. Based on the players age, draft selection and where they fit organizationally. I hope Phil Housley gives this kid a fair shake in terms of line combination, although past history suggests this probably will not happen. We all know Nylander is not JB’s guy, so maybe there is a bit of a microscope to see if he has any future here. Might also be a good move for ratings. I know I’ll watch, and not so sure I could have said that yesterday post game.
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McDavid got two. Jack gets two.
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4 minutes ago, sweetlou said:
More to my point why I think we need to overpay Ferland and bring him on this team to play on the top line with Eichel and hopefully a resigned Skinner!!
Ferland shoots L and plays LW, same as Skinner. Therefore not playing on the first line. I would still love to see him him on the Left with Sam and real 2C. As in JT Miller, Hayes, etc. And if $5m AAV is overpaying, i’m in.
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I’m surprised to see so few comments regarding the Dahlin hit to Rantanen. Quite aggressive game by Dahlin. Nice to see him show some heart. He could see a game or fine for the elbow to the head.
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I’ll take any of them, as they are all clearly superior to Gilbert, Rick, Danny et al. ?
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3 hours ago, Doohickie said:
Way to put forth the effort, PHam.
Interesting lines. I think Mitts should have had some time
on the wingearlier.In Rochester
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3 minutes ago, 7+6=13 said:
Then you know more than a respected analyst.
JBot is terrible at drafting players - the 2020 Sabres draft class should be better.
I respect many of his other takes. Just saying I cannot see any GM/pro scout looking at this guy and saying “Yeah, I need some that”. and willing to take on a $3.5m cap hit on top of it. Do you?
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19 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:
You'd have to take that up with Yost. I'm just merely pointing out what he said. His belief is that there's tradeable contracts that the Sabres should get out of. Sobotka, Hunwick and Scandella were mentioned with Sobotka being the "slam dunk" and that he'd trade him for sure. He said we should be looking for opportunities to displace these perennial under performing players in order to sign others that aren't.
There is no way anyone takes Vlad without a “sweetener”. He should be bought out in June. My only concern is that he isn’t b/c he is tied to a certain trade, and the optics would confirm a sense of failure for JB. A good market trader recognizes a bad investment and is not afraid to sell. A great trader recognizes a bad investment and “short sells”. In this analogy going one step beyond a Vlad buyout is starting Tage in Roch next year.
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Robin, is that you?
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16 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
Could this be a George Costanza “just do the opposite” night?
Wilson scores? Patrick Kane gives puck up in his D zone to lose the game? Yes please.
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2 hours ago, dudacek said:
Yost didn't really break the first bold down, but to me doesn't this start and stop at Risto?
We have three good forwards, who — far and away — get the bulk of ice time. Rodrigues' ice time has gone up as he's shown he's deserved it. Scandella's has dropped. Housley has been forced to feed minutes to three inconsistent kids (Tage, Casey, Rasmus) as part of the organizational development plan. And the rest of his forwards aren't good and get similar amounts of ice time.
Yost said it himself: we have too many bad players. Why does Sobotka get the minutes he does? Who the hell else are you going to use in those situations? Probably Larsson and Girgensons, who are the guys who do get those minutes.
As for the second bold: Botterill made exactly the types of moves Yost is calling for in Skinner and Montour.
Final bold, the window for success is RIGHT NOW? When our #2 centre still isn't shaving, our goalie is a rookie and our franchise cornerstone defenceman is 18? Jack Eichel won't be good forever, but there is a reasonable chance he'll be good for another 10 years.
Good stuff. I’ll add he double downed on the “right now” by suggesting Dahlin will be in his prime soon and Jack is in his prime now. I’ve shared this before but the timeline is not on Jack. JB has a plan to develop the blue line and it is tied to Rasmus playing first line minutes. I’ll reiterate your point. He is only 18. Drew Doughty dominated by year 3/4. Rasmus will do the same, but not next year either.
He made a lot of other salient points, especially the goaltending (and I think you added and I agree - timely goaltending). Or was that Perrault Forever, I forget....... Some questionable decision on line ups by PH, sure. But our time is not right now. There is no acceleration needed.
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Is there any data out there on defensive pairings/combinations relative to league average? Because it seems that PH changes far too frequently instead of keeping consistency. Injuries and call ups notwithstanding. I even see mid-game changes that are puzzling.
GDT Sabres at Ottawa 3/26/19 7:30.
in The Aud Club
Posted
Actually ROR, Kane, or Lehner are not the same. You make an assumption they are the same, and call Lehner an outlier b/c it fits your narrative. If you look at the of ROR compared to his last 5 years average he is playing significantly above them (statistically). 23% better in goals, 19% in Assists, and 20% more points. His takeaways are 28% better and giveaways down 5% (read improved). He still has 6 more games to improve all these. His average +/- @ 23 is in the stratosphere. Last year the Blues were bested by Vlady T with +15 and he plays zero PK and tons of PP. So it's factually not true to suggest they are the same player. All this improvement at the age of 28 by the bye.
More of the same from Kane. 32% more goals, 35% more assists (9 more than his last full year with Sabres & 7 games remaining). His giveaways are up (not much) but takeaways improved significantly. Even strength goals are way up (that a good think the metric guys like). +/- is nothing great but then again San Jose gives up tons of goals. Hell, Joe Pavelski is a minus player on that team.
The original post you responded to offered a salient point about minutes to players who were JB guys. Scandella not part of the Blues or SJ trade but a trade nonetheless, (one of which has not been discussed as in-depth as a the others, but seemingly looks to be one JB is on the wrong side of). I'd rather not have to think about Scandella and his $4M AAV next year when I have Pilut on an ELC.
I think you know the reason why O'Reagan is not playing in Buffalo. But he was given a chance, which is more than we can say for Nylander. And that fits MY narrative of JB playing his guys over TM's. Or playing Casey when he should have been in Roch developing.
My last point is that we have ALL been better off without the condescension of a certain poster, so for you to close with a Jame-like remark is just sad. You didn't appreciate it when it happened to you, and trust me, we all saw them. Why perpetuate this behavior? Be a better person.