Broken Ankles
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Posts posted by Broken Ankles
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23 hours ago, jad1 said:
Ok, thanks for that.
Tampa has picked 39 players in the draft since 2014. 6 of those picks have made it to the NHL. 3 play for the Lightning. 3 play for the Rangers.
Since 2014, Tampa has none of its 1st rounders on its NHL roster. Howden was their pick in 2016. He now plays for the Rangers and has 23 career points.
Deangelo was their 1st pick in 2014, also plays for the Rangers, and has 43 career points (so in 5 seasons he has roughly the same number of points as Dahlin).
The only player picked by Tampa in the 2nd round since 2014 who has played in the NHL is Libor Hajek (2016) who also now plays for the Rangers. He's played 5 NHL games.
Tampa's saving grace in the draft since 2014 is the 3rd round, where they drafted Point (2014) and Cirelli (2015).
They added Joseph in the 4th round in 2015 (26 career points).
None of their draft picks from 2017 or 2018 have hit the NHL yet.
So since 2014, 5 drafts (not counting 2019) have added Point, Cirelli, and Joseph to the Lightning roster. Now one of those players is excellent, one is emerging, and the last might be good, but 3 players from 5 drafts is not a great percentage.
The other draftees in the NHL were sent to the Rangers to build their defense (trading projects for veterens).
So is a team who consistently misses on the first two rounds, but hits on the 3rd round good at drafting or is it lucky?
Or does it not matter, because acquiring a good player, regardless of his draft position is really the only thing that matters?
The bold is important. And TB certainly isn't a Presidents trophy team without Pointe, Cirelli and others. Evidence of the contrary is the Sabres who have not hit on anything outside round three in years. Fingers crossed for Olofsson.
Your analysis of draft years only goes back to 2104. If you go back the 6 years prior you will see many more picks that contribute or were traded for players that did. It just takes time for these players to mature and carry a team. Especially a goalie. And Two of their 1st round picks were traded for contributors like JT Miller, Ryan McDonagh, and Bradon Coburn (2015). Cal Foote also looks like a good prospect. So if you remove the those two selections, and consider their picks are outside the top 20 since their ascension in 2014 to an elite level in the standings most years, not too bad.
*Please note - the next statement is not intended to redirect this thread toward Ryan O'Reilly.
Another factor is the GM needs to win more trades than he loses. Trading Cory Conacher for Ben Bishop is a win. And then turning that player 4 years later into Eric Cernak is yet another win. Draft, develop and win trades.
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2 hours ago, tom webster said:
Other then Cousins, what future wouldn’t you trade to be good now? We are in year
52 ofJackRasmus, the time to win isnow2021.Fixed this for you. The sooner we realize the timeline of our true generational player the sooner we all can sleep at night.
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2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:
How much longer is Clarkson's cap hit ? I guess they could send us a 1st rounder along with Miller ?
Toronto just set the price on trading bad deals.
One more year at $5.25M. Miller has 3 more years at $3.875. I agree on your comments regarding Toronto setting the price. I bet George had sticker shock when he was shopping. And to your point, now that the price has been sent, can it go lower? They went ahead and singed Karlsson, so they are a full $7.5M over the Cap. So they need to lose both Miller and this $5.25M to get below and sign their RFA goalie (maybe $800k). Would you do that deal (Miller + 1st) to take on the Clarkson contract? Or would you rather spend it on UFA's.
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4 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:
Is Stastny worth *daydreaming* about? He'd be a nice add, but I need convincing.
probably not. Not b/c he wouldn't fill a gaping hole.....but
Vegas is trying to work under the cap by shedding Clarkson's Cap hit & trading Colin Miller. I think they are still in 'win now' mode and would not risk trading Stastny.
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6 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:
Among others, my brother's friends in the NHL corporate offices, a friend in Vancouver from my days in Doctor Who fandom, a couple of hockey writers who have written books on the NHL.
Remember that their stuff is predicated upon their opinions, so the information is at best second-hand when I get it. Their impression is that it is that JBot is trying as fiercely to trade Ristolainen. My brother's friend in the NHL offices kind of ruefully said that, and I quote, "JBot may have learned his lesson with O'Reilly. We Sabres fans have to hope so." That quote bothers me, and I can't quite put my finger on why.
If by "learning his lesson" it means if he doesn't see a top 6 winger with upside and a team friendly contract as part of the return package, and we keep him for next season then great. I'd love to shake up our D with two new faces but if teams are holding out for another O'Reilly Fleecing" then maybe he needs to stand pat. Let's follow the advice of Alanis........
And all I really want is some patience
A way to calm the angry voice
And all I really want is deliverance, ahThe O'Reilly trade is Jason's Jagged Little Pill.
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7 minutes ago, dudacek said:
It sure feels like we’ve seen this movie before.
Ristolainen is O’Reilly all over again with the mopey locker room clean out interview, the “not trying to trade him but will listen to offers” reports, the Lebrun nuggets about the Sabre being a real valuable asset, the Sabre fanbase rating the player more highly than the consensus from other fanbases and the draft passing without a deal.
I’m not seeing a lot of reason to hope we can flip the script on the ending.
Look on the bright side. At least he doesn't have a $7.5M signing bonus due in 6 days creating an imaginary line of demarcation. Or an egregious driving record of crashing into Timmy Ho's while intoxicated (allegedly) frustrating ownership.
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35 minutes ago, Weave said:
Calling the female owner of the team the queen mother of all bad things you can call a female may be a contributing factor. He may have branded himself a personality you don't want in a professional organization.
Allegedly.
I agree. Probably contributing factor to an Executive position but a scout is on the road 90% of the time and not in the home office. If he is great, probably finds a home soon.
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31 minutes ago, Hoss said:
Not sure he failed us in the draft yet. Several of his picks are still working through the pipeline.
Nylander, Asplund, Borgen and Olofsson all have legitimate NHL shots.
Pu was a big part of getting Skinner here. Some of his other picks were also used in trades. And there's a few others still in the system that are NHL longshots but could pan out.
Tim Murray's story is not done.
Question. If his evaluation of talent is so superior why has no team hired him? Even Darcy landed an Assistant GM position and his last 5 drafts were horrendous.
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2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:
I'll reiterate the point I'm trying to make - Tim did not ruin a rebuild by squandering a bunch of picks, given that he made 4 more picks than an average team does in that span. If he did, then Jason is doing even worse "rebuilding with picks" which hasn't ever been mentioned by anyone, since he also trades picks AND has taken an average of 2+ picks fewer per draft than Tim, and they are lower selections than Tim made.
I'm not trying to give everything Tim did a passing grade, far from it - but that's one narrative i'm not interested in. No GM was ever going to make all of those draft picks, as you can only have so many contracts in your organization at once. That was the whole point of getting a bunch of them - to make draft picks AND use them in trades for players. Considering our whole problem the last four years has been NHL depth, not doing so would have been even more crippling.
Looking at just future draft selections, or total selections comparatively does not tell the whole story. Include the prospects given up in those trades, and the net return by round including trades. Example - TM acquiring two second round draft picks for Moulson and McCormick, or trading prospects like Zadorov, Compher, Mcnabb, Lemieux, Armia , etc. When you factor those into the NET pick up, TM has a -8 between first and second round (which are really the only ones that matter). This compared to JB who while trading two prospects (Guhle/Poo), manages to net to zero when looking at the first two rounds. My biggest criticism of Murray was his decision to trade 3 picks in the top 31 of the 2015 Draft which was assumed to be the best crop of talent in decades, and has proven as such. I assumed JB was going to keep #31 overall this year and he did. With a pool of talent much more shallow than 2015. Murray had 4 picks in the top 31 of that draft and traded 3 keeping Jack. Botterill had 3 in the top 31 this year and traded 1. This approach is much more prudent.
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15 minutes ago, dudacek said:
So that sounds pretty much like there is a deal in principle if one of the parties doesn’t change its mind because of another deal they’re chasing. When was the last time the Sabres acquired a player the fans disliked as much as Vesey?
Cody Hodgson?
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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
They got them immediately after their entry level deals not year 8. Even Kane and Toews got significant money after entry.
$8.7M in 2008/09 after entry level was 15% of the cap ($56.7m). So shouldn't Toronto expect $12.6M for 5 years as acceptable?
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Malkin signed same term/AAV on his second but a higher AAV with 8 year term (new CBA) on his third deal.
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13 minutes ago, Derrico said:
Double check but it's true. Guys got the big deals Year 8 under last CBA. It's year 4 now. Crosby entered the league in 2005 and the $8.7 mil deal was signed in 2012 (year 8).
Crosby actually did get a huge deal after his entry level. The $8.7M AAV on his third contract is same as his "bridge" deal. But the bridge was big for 2008
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13 minutes ago, Zamboni said:
Prediction?
Seriously. I predict JB like um takes and places phone calls and emails to better the roster. In each of the prior two off seasons he’s moved 10 guys on and off the roster. I’ll like predict he does something close to or similar this off season. Yea yea. That’s the ticket.
Now where did I put down my magic 8 ball?
no specifics but you win for a Clubber Lang Gif.
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Very active. Biggest to leave is Risto. Biggest Return is Ehlers. Too much talk about Tampa so I also say Miller and Callahan are also traded to Buffalo. I think he unloads Scandella and rights for Larsson. Relentless in my belief (probably wrong) that Vlad is a buyout. Nylander is traded although I want to see him get a legit chance on this team. He keeps both 7 & 31. We are surprised that Cozens falls to #7 (not unlike the Bills good fortune in April). McCabe is also traded and we pick up a McQuaid or Girardi in free agency. Girgensen returns on a one year deal, along with another UFA. Donskoi is the popular pick but I'll go Vanek.
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8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
On Stastny? I wouldn’t two years as 2C and then off the books? He might be worthwhile if the price is right
Stastny - A slightly higher AAV than Miller, but fewer years. But you don't have to take on Callahan's salary in return.
Is the cost that much more than a Miller/Callahan in TB?
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3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
They are above the cap with Karlsson needing a new deal
and Subban
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NHL and other athletes collectively bargain. In doing so they give up certain rights for the ability to sign long term, and in many circumstances guaranteed contracts. If an actor/singer/dancer loses their ability to perform, they would experience an immediate loss of income. Unlike Vlad Sobotka, who by all observation cannot play competitive hockey anymore, but still collects $3.5M in a salary. For that, he is sentenced to live in Buffalo. Kind of a fair trade off, wouldn't you say?
15 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said: Sort of. We pay pro athletes by buying tickets, merchandise, and media. We pay musicians by buying tickets, merchandise, and media. Yet musicians are free to go work wherever they please. Work with whatever companies they please. NHL players can not.. The pro sports leagues were set up for the teams to have nearly complete professional control over the players. We are left with the crumbling remnants of that system.
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2 hours ago, dudacek said:
Trouba is an RFA who intends to sign a one-year deal (likely from arbitration) that will make him a UFA next summer. It is generally accepted he is not going to re-sign in the Peg.
That will effectively put him in exactly the same position this summer that Skinner was last summer, which is why he is being shopped.
All this is true. What I am suggesting is factors such as his age (1+ younger), no NMC, and being a RD shut down top pair that plays PP & PK makes his value much higher than Skinner. The circumstances and their similarities provide an explanation of why he is being shopped, but other factors suggest the market value is not equal. Some sources suggest Risto, P31 and a prospect (M. Davidson) would be required. That is not even close to Skinners market value last summer, otherwise Carolina wouldn’t have accepted the offer they did from JB. You can also throw in the fact the Organizations are in different places too. Winnipeg is in win now mode, where Carolina probably was looking to the future when they pulled the trigger on Jeff. Keeping Trouba might make more sense for them than moving him before the season.
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5 hours ago, dudacek said:
Unless you get a team certain they can re-sign him, I’d look at what the Sabres paid to get Skinner last year or what the Jackets paid for Duchene as a good starting point for Trouba’s market value.
He’s a pending UFA who is going to be very picky about who he will let pay him considerably more than market value.
Trouba is a 25 year old RFA. Very different from Skinner last year. Although I think the only teams in on that trade will be one where his agent agrees to a long term extension.
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2 minutes ago, Drunkard said:
I'm afraid trading Ristolainen will be O'Reilly part two. Botterill is the volume shooter type and instead of trading Ristolainen for one good player who can fix our center depth and improve the team next season, he's going to trade him for a basket of lesser pieces in hopes he can hit a bullseye or two with his multiple dart approach. I've said it before, but I fear he trades Ristolainen to Tampa for a package of something like:
Miller (to try to fix his O'Reilly mistake)
Callahan (pure cap dump)
Mediocre prospect (no way they give us a top prospect, when St. Louis only gave up Thompson for O'Reilly)
Late 1st round pick (very late given how good Tampa is, plus we'll be helping them out further by gifting them cap space since Callahan and Miller combined take up a lot more cap space than Ristolainen)
I think that leaves Dahlin exposed to having to carry the defense way too early and with most of the actual value in the Ristolainen trade being futures, the team is worse in the short run. The ironic part is that if any of his long term darts ever actually pan out, it will be the next GM who reaps the benefits instead of Botterill.
History is on your side. Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat. I hope a guy with an MBA has enough sense not to do that. We will find out in the next 3 weeks. Anticipation....
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4 hours ago, jsb said:
Trade with Tampa Bay for Callahan, Martin and Joseph for McCabe and one of next years #2 picks.
Trade with Winnepeg for Trouba and Perrault for Risto and the 31st pick
Sign Michael Ferland 4 years 4.25 AAV
Trade -Girgs-Larsson for whatever
Skinner--Jack--Joseph
Ferland--Martin-- Reinhart
Sheary--Casey/Perrault--Olofsson
ERod--Perrault/Casey--Okposo
Callahan xtra
Dahlin-Trouba
Pilot-Montour
Scandella-Bogo
Nelson xtra
You had me until Scandella. Good thoughts all around. I think McCabe is a good bargaining chip as well. His expected AAV and experience will attract s few team up against the cap like Tampa or The Peg.
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7 minutes ago, Drunkard said:
Ok. I still disagree but at least now I feel like I understand your pov so thanks for the clarification. In that sense I agree, it shouldn't be too hard to find a middle of the pack type of dman who happens to have skills that compliment Dahlin's game. The guy is going to be a stud and he's definitely talented enough to cover up for deficiencies in a defensive partner with flaws or at least he'll be at that level soon enough.
I just happen to think that's asking too much from him this early in his career and I was under the impression that Botterill was going with the slow and steady, methodical approach to development. Whether he can handle it or not next season is almost irrelevant for me. If throwing him in the deep end this early into his career has even a 1% chance of stunting his growth or messing up his development, I wouldn't want to risk it, because he's too important to the franchise.
I agree with this too. Just as you convinced me on how wrong I was on O'Reilly, I hope I can convince you that a Risto trade will actually benefit this team in the long run.
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1 hour ago, Drunkard said:
So you want Botterill to trade Ristolainen to fix the forward depth. And the solution to replace Ristolainen is that you think Botterill can then just make another move to acquire a top pairing defenseman to play with our franchise defenseman? How is that going to happen? It's not like GMs just make those guy readily available and even when they do, trading for them requires a king's ransom. Using your logic Ristolainen is bad but somehow good enough to return some help for the top 6. So what are you willing to give up to return this top pairing partner for Dahlin? Is it going to be all futures or is it just going to continue the cycle or trying to fix a hole by creating a bigger hole elsewhere?
Did we demand a "kings ransom" for Brayden McNabb? I believe it was Hudson Fashing (who was a wash out - and TM gave up 2 #2's to LA to boot). McNabb went on to play top pairing minutes with Drew Doughty. What I'm suggesting is that Ristolainen's upside (scoring, power play minutes) is already replaced by a younger, better skating defender. His strength and D-zone will continue to grow. What we need is a compliment to Dahlin's game. Not necessarily another teams #1 D-man. I don't buy into the idea that your two best defensemen always have to be on the same pairing.
My argument is not that Risto is bad. I think some elements of his game are desperately needed by other teams. I just happen to think that we have two players on the roster that can fill those voids, and IF the return from another team can bolster another area of need, then it's something you must consider.
What am I willing to give up? See McNabb trade above, or Nick Leddy, or Boychuck as other comps. Nothing significant. I would even suggest Dan Giaradi as a UFA as an option. If you go down the path of Trouba it will be a good prospect, a first and a player. I'm advocating the former.
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Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by Broken Ankles
spelling
better, but you are missing 3...unless your playing 9 Defense.
if I may
Jeff skinner - Jack Eichle - Brett Connolly
Olofsson- TBD by trade - Sam Reinhart -
Ferland - Boyle - Rodrigues
Conor Sheary - Casey Mittlestadt - Vanek
Kyle Okposo