Broken Ankles
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Posts posted by Broken Ankles
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3 minutes ago, jame said:
Tage last shift was at the 14 minute mark, he was not one of the gassed guys
What makes Scandella a better net front presence (i'm trying not to laugh) than Erod or Beaulieu?
The tank line, funny and well played. The trying not to laugh comeback condescending and Douchey. You see why people don’t like you right?
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11 minutes ago, jame said:
I can certainly have it both ways.
He used a protection slot... on a guy he gave away for free less than a year later. That's a fail.
Now, the player he gave away is outperforming the guy he chose to replace him.
Carrier may be a replacement level player... but we've spent the last two seasons with multiple sub replacement level forwards in the lineup on the regular.
Reinhart v Scheifele
Draft Year : Both go back to juniors
Draft Year + 1 Season : Reinhart debuts 40 point rookie, Scheifele back to juniors
D+2:
- Reinhart 79 games / 47 points / 0.60 per game
- Scheifele 63 games / 34 points / 0.54 per game
D+3: This is last season for Reinhart....
- Reinhart 82 games / 50 points / 0.61 per game
- Scheifele 82 games / 49 points / 0.60 per game
We were going in to Reinhart's D+4 and we bridged him for D+4 and 5....here's how his development trend tracks against Scheifele.
D+4:
- Reinhart 48 games / 44 points / 0.92 per game (pace)
- Scheifele 71 games / 61 points / 0.86 per game
D+5:
- Reinhart ??? games / ??? points / ??? per game
- Scheifele 79 games / 82 points / 1.04 per game
So for cap savings in years that Botts isn't even trying to win.... we will end up paying the difference between getting a long term deal done with a 40-50 player and a long term deal (that buys more UFA years) for a 70-80 point player in a higher cost market.
Bridging Reinhart was a god awful move
What are you assuming the AAV would have been for a long term agreement?
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3 hours ago, jame said:
Correct. I think he’s done a terrible job, and a ton of damage
Let me add to the plethora of positive transactions JB has made in a short time in Buffalo. These are outside the aforementioned Skinner and and good fortune of Dahlin (which also is understated, Murray was a jinx that lost all his Draft lotteries in Buffalo. Luck matters.)
* Signing Lawrence Pilut.
* Drafting and more importantly convincing UPL to play in the OHL and eventually Rochester.
* D. O'Reagan (for Roch) and a 1st for Kane.
* 6th Round Pick to Vegas to take Carrier and not select Linus in Expansion Draft.
* Zack Redmond (Roch contributor) for Deslauriers
* Brandon Hickey for H. Fasching.
* Signing Will Borgen (and developing properly)
* Signing Asplund and getting him to develop in Roch.
* UFA Carter Hutton to team friendly 3 year deal. (And I think this is undervalued thus far. Lehner is having a nice (Lucky?) year, but Hutton is a true Pro and will serve as a proper role model for Linus and a good back up over the next 2 years.
* Equitable Bridge deal for Sam that allows flexibility for trade after 2020 or signing a lucrative long term deal if he continues to ascend. But it was the cogent decision to bridge.
* Promising growth on later round selections in 2018 - Samuelsson, Pekar and Kukkonen. Too early to quantify anything.
I think deals like Wilson, Sheary, Beaulie, Bailey, Baptiste, Fedun are all a wash. They were either non-factors or involved insignificant and /or lower draft picks.
so for each swing and miss:
a.) Pominville/Scandella deal
b.) Mismanagement of Mittlestadt (I agree with your assessment)
there are more positive moves, in my opinion. How do I get there? Both the compete level of the team and the the record of both Rochester and Buffalo is better than it was two years ago or last year. And this includes losing its best Center from last season. While you have already decided the O'Reilly trade is a colossal failure (incorrectly I might add), I need at least two years to decide who wins this trade. And in this two years, Tampa Bay and Toronto will continue to dominate the East. O'Reilly on the Sabres this year or next would not affect this result. By his third season, Dahlin will have the experience and talent (think Drew Doughty year 3/4 in LA) to take this team to the next level. And IF (leap of faith) - Tage can develop, increase his strength, and contribute in top 6 capacity, and JB spends the $7.5M AAV that would have been designated to an aging 30+ Center on other Free Agent(s), and the first and second round picks we receive from St. Louis have moderate success, then he can win that one too. I know Terry Pegs has lots of cash, but money was also a factor in when the trade was made, so there is that. So I'll provide JB enough slack to spend that money this off season and next, and use those 3 first round picks (and properly develop) before I condemn him and suggest he's damaged the team. This jury member needs time to deliberate.
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10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
FYI - thought they are interesting discussions.
Didn’t you comment on lack of success on 2nd round picks last week? And went through all the examples? Maybe Die by the Blade is scrolling though these posts looking for ideas.
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18 hours ago, shrader said:
Joey, have you ever been in a Turkish prison?
Do you like Gladiator movies?
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13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
I know but if he got or gets me he does. Nothing wrong with being proven wrong. I absolutely could be convinced that there are better reasons why Pittsburgh didn't win the cup again for 6 years.
I am not sure I can be convinced that what got them cups at all was drafting. All assets come from the draft.
Probably a reason I am very gun shy about trading those first round picks we traded away good talent to acquire.
Those that cannot remember the past .........
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36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Boston could have drafted Debrusk, Boeser, and Barzal in 2015. I understand the Debrusk and Zboril pick but Senyshyn was and is one of the worst reaches in the modern NHL.
And the Sabres could have netted:
Jack
Boeser
Beauviller
Aho
And Carlo....
but we got “Murried”
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12 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:
Boston is a really interesting example because they have both 1) hit on late round picks that have become key contributors while also 2) wasting a whole bunch of 1st rounders with questionable reaches (3 picks in a row in 2015) and sending away Drouin for basically nothing. Some great moves and others that are real head scratchers. They could be so much better if they didn't make the mistakes mentioned.
Debrusk will contribute. But I agree with the larger point about 3 picks in a loaded draft and coming away with only one.
2016 first rounder was Charlie McAvoy, who looks like a home run. And Pastrnak in 2014. Three years of hitting allowed them to take a chance and trade 2018's 1st round - although not to any success.
Also - Drouin was not a Bruin. Seguin?
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16 minutes ago, Thorny said:
Technically, I don't believe Botterill said he won't trade for a rental. He said he isn't interested in trading a first round pick for a rental.
When he was last on WGR he stated that while he always wants to add scoring and skill he did not want to trade draft picks (not specific rounds but picks in general) OR Young players. He said that while this might add immediate scoring it would only push the problem down a few years.
I have a feeling this is partially true. He is against a rental, but might walk back his comment about trading a pick or a player come June.
If we were playing ‘Card Sharks’, I’d say the likelihood JB trades for any rental is low. 18%. I also look to see if Nylander is given a real look after the break. If he doesn’t get a sniff I think his chances for being part of a package increase.
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5 hours ago, jame said:
Mcdavid >>>>>Eichel
Draisaitl < Reinhart
RNH < Skinner
rest of Edm <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Dahlin
Sheary is a replacement level hockey player.
I’m a fan of Sam but he is not better than Leon. Like 100 points less with only 20 less games played. Leon can play FL#1 and put up gaudy numbers. He can also Center FL#2 and provide secondary scoring with average forwards. Neither are elite at much else.
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2 hours ago, inkman said:
This interests me like a kick to the Jimmy. RNH is worse at everything than Risto. He scores less, is a giant puss and offers nothing in the line of clutch or playoff experience. Klefbom or Draisaitl better be in that package as well.
Are you still high from last night? Because I am now and still know Leon > Ristolainen straight up. Don’t want RNH but..... both for Risto is kind of, you know Ludicrous.
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Bovada had this game with the Canuck' as a slight favorite this morning, changing to even money (-110) by Noon. This includes a Goaltender with exactly one NHL start and their star rookie Elias Pettersson still out. The road trip is not excessive in length, nor does Vancouver a superior Home record. Or the Sabres a poor road record. I'm in for a dime on the Sabres tonight. I expect at least 3 goals from FL#1 with maybe another few chipping in. If this team is in the discussion for an 8 seed or higher, they win this game.
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40 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Good way to get people to stop posting here. Maybe I don't want to read takes from people saying "Pilut obviously should be sat because Phil knows best" when I can show using data that wasn't true. If you are fed up with hearing about it, block the posters who talk about it or don't read them.
I think the concern many have regarding statistics is how many posters use them to justify or contend a position, often times without ever seeing that player or team over a period of time. Obviously the tools are more robust and should be used "in addition to", not "in replacement of" game management by Coaches and GM's. Most of which have far more experience than any of us. I personally dislike when some throw Corsi/Fenwick/HDCF% stats as an absolute or empirical truth in rating a player. Empirical data is acquired by observation or experimentation. Often times the data is anecdotal, but those that quote the stats are reticent to accept it as such.
I think your observations on the scoring chances inside the high danger zones are valid, and definitely a concern on the PP. But I would argue that our shots from the point are not a problem. Our problem is deflections (or lack thereof) and rebounds. Weak players like Casey Middlestadt, Tage Thompson and Conor Sheary contribute to this. In EDM, their first two goals were from inside, but both deflections. Buffalo tries, but their not as effecitve in execution based on talent or net front presence? Their last goal was a rebound, slammed home by Leon, as was Johnny Hockey's first period goal last night. I can think of a dozen more that did not result in a goal due to luck, good saves or missed shots by the opposition. Hopefully these charts can help identify the gaps and improve our Defensive positioning, and recognizing other teams strengths when game planning. But I refuse to accept these as absolute truths when things like how a goaltender can impact this number, or how a failed clear in the D-zone by a player that should not be on the team 30 seconds before this shot/goal was made affected it. And with respect to the PP, I have watched a fair amount of Calgary games, and their passing inside is a function of size and skill. The Sabres had to have seen this in video before the game as CGY has scored like this the entire year, and yet teams still struggle agaisnt it. Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk are better suited than Skinner/Eichel or Skinner/Reinhart to execute these plays. But to your point, maybe the Sabres should try to replicate. At this point, our PP needs to try something new.
Lastly to your Pilut point. Data and more importantly the eye test says he should be playing over Scandella. But we don't know what Phil has been told. I myself think the conspiracy theory that Botts wants to trade Macro has legs, so the decision was to sit Pilut over Nate so he could showcase Scandella could be valid. In saying this, I also cannot simply have my stat department tell my head coach who should be playing each night.
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Memo to Phil Housley: do not have Scandella on the ice or let Zach Bogosian pinch when the first line is out there for Calgary
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10 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
What makes the NY Islanders any more legit than Buffalo or Montreal????
Depth scoring? FL#2 - Beauvillier, Barzal, & Josh Bailey vs Rodriguez, Sobotka and TT.
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5 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:
This also gets tiring, when people omit parts of trades. We didn't just give them Pu...we gave them 3 picks also.
Now, multiply that by 2x = 2 prospects and 6 picks if you make two similar trades for 2 players. That's 8 pieces to the "pool" you no longer have. Granted, the 2 6th rd picks aren't likely to amount to anything but remember that Olofsson was a 7th rd pick.
This is an excellent point. Largely overlooked when you review the history of trades at the deadline. Either a prospect that becomes something, or an additional lower round draft selection in addition to the player that eventually becomes something.
I'm also confused by the discussion that it's a buyers’ market. It’s always been a sellers’ market. Last year saw trades of Nash, Brassard, McDonough and JT Miller, Tatar, Kane, Stastny and Hartman all yield a first round pick plus more. Every year some GM get stupid.
If we agree we are not going “all in” on a top-flight UFA rental that will cost at least a first round plus, then let’s look at the secondary rentals from last year. Michael Grabner, Ian Cole, Tomas Plekanec, Vanek, Maroon, Brandon Davidson, Frank Vatrano, Nick Holden, Petr Mrazek, Michal Kempny are all 2nd or 3rd round (or equal value). Outside of Thomas Vanek having a very strong finish to 2018, how did the others perform? Spoiler alert. Not well.
Then you get down to the low-end market. These hockey trades/rentals returned a fourth round or lower. Joe Morrow, Nick Shore, Mike Reilly, Ryan Graves, Mark Letestu, Eric Fehr, Nikita Soshnikov, and Scott Wilson. Reality check time - no one is getting any immediate value trading or 4-7th round pick. These guys are 4th liners who grind or a seventh D man that serves as a just in case.
Looking at this year’s UFA’s/Trade bait, and excluding those like Duchene, Steen, Simmonds, Carter, Hayes, Panarin and Nyquist as they would appear to require a First round +, who on this secondary market are you willing to part with Guehle or Pecar and a 3rd, 4th or 5th ? Ferland, Silverberg, Nemestnikov, Zuccarello, Coyle?
For my money, I would rather us try to bundle a player (Scandella, Beaulieu), prospect (Guhele) and a First round pick for a younger player under our control for at least three more years that is considered bottom six but could grow into a top six. If at all. As I’m convinced that a call up from Rochester for Bailey, Olofsson, or Nylander might deliver the same results.
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11 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:
You are a good soldier, but your time is up,
Thanks, Rambo (you will always be Rambo to me) for kick stating us in the noble fight.
Also, @..., very nice letter.
Why would the stupid NHL schedule the Sabres in NC and then home the next night? NC is practically to Florida.
MUST WIN!! (although I would accept a tie in this case)
GO SABRES!!
Or equidistant to Buffalo. It’s ok, my geography of Canada ?? is a little rusty too. And I agree with your sports take that a tie is acceptable under the current circumstances.
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
One of the reason there is so little depth on the Sabres and in the system is our failure to get real players from the 2nd rd for years. Between trading players and these picks we have basically zero 2nd rd players since McCabe.
Here is the history.
We had no 2nds in 2010 and 2011, but traded for Larsson (56th in 2010). Joel Edmundson was taken with our 46th pick in 2011.
We drafted McCabe in 2012
We drafted Compher (traded), Bailey and Hurley in 2013. We also acquired and then traded Carrier (57th) to keep Ullmark in expansion.
We drafted Lemieux (traded), Cornel and Karabacek in 2014. Karabacek is no longer with the organization. We traded the 39th pick to get Cornel and Brycen Martin (74th in 2014)
We drafted Guhle in 2015. He has yet to stick in Buffalo and has been past on the depth chart by Pilut. We traded the 31st pick in the ROR trade.
We drafted Asplund in 2016. He has 10 pts in 36 games with the Amerks.
We drafted Davidsson in 2017 and he is still in the SHL. Similar played to Asplund.
We drafted Samuelsson in 2018. He is a freshman in college.
We have no 2nd rd pick in 2019.
Of all our 2nd rd picks since McCabe there is exactly one NHL player, Compher and we traded him away.
Don’t forget about the 2014 second round picks (+ McNabb) TM traded for Fasching. Two there. In 2015 the Guhle pick was 51. Murray traded our second (31 overall) to Colorado. This spot still had the likes of Aho, Carlo, Fischer and Greenway available. Lastly a 2016 2nd round pick for Josh Georges.
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38 minutes ago, Hoss said:
Gilbert is a good man as far as my dealings with him have went. Can’t speak for anything beyond that. His son is a prospect in the Blackhawks system.
Nephew. And he is a good man.
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6 hours ago, Samson's Flow said:
Mostly I think the difference in handling between TT and Nylander is based on play style.
If Nylander isn't scoring in the NHL level, then he is useless as he doesn't have the physicality or defensive acumen to contribute in other ways while learning. So let's make sure he is ready by holding him in the AHL until the team is sure he is capable of being a scoring threat in the NHL. Then when you bring him up he should be put in a scoring line role with skill players.
Tage on the other hand had enough size and skating ability to be capable of learning at the NHL level, and (while it took a little while) was able to play other roles while he figured out how to position himself to use his hard shot as a weapon. The last few games we have seen good confidence growth, where he is now generating more chances.
Good points. Then what is the reason for Casey Middelstadt being measured on a different scale than Nylander? They are drafted in the same #8 position in the first round, so arguably similar skill/projected talent. They are about the same age (Nylander one draft year ahead and about 7 months older). Its not like Casey blew him away in camp. His play has been below average, and he is playing a more difficult and demanding position (Center) than Nylander could play (RW). Yet Casey is with the big club and Alex in the AHL. Why does he not get, or deserve the same protection? The only thing I keep coming back to is Alex was drafted by TM and Casey by JB.
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1 hour ago, Thorny said:
I never thought I'd say this again but I almost want to try Reinhart at centre one more time. If he bonds to the position this time, and we've got a near point a game, ice-tilting C on line 2, how do we look when Casey is fully bloomed as our 3C?
But maybe Sam can only be that player on the wing.
While he is not listed as C or playing in the D zone, is Sam not the making the plays of a true C in the O-zone? He was behind the net, creating chances and scoring opportunities which is what has been missing on our 2nd line. Call him C or RW but I’m onboard him moving to his own line. I’m also keeping Tage at RW when Jack returns. Casey scored but overall did not impress. Struggled mightily on a few occasions to get the puck out of his zone. Ready for Vlad to slide to 3C and Casey to learn how to ride a bus for a few months.
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3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
Pilut has helped. The others not so much. The only one who might help is Olofsson.
I think it may be time to bring back the “Jbot Do Something Already” Thread.
Agreed. Pilut has proved his worth since his call up. A recent analysis on Sabres D-men below. My eye test says the same. For those who believe you must have a pick, player and a prospect to get something in return, Pilut may make Scandella and Guehle expendable come trade deadline.
https://apple.news/AkEbDGfPKSm-
I would also add that Smith has not been great but better than Elie in a much smaller sample size. So not a complete washout.
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I like the move to keep Linus, but why can’t you reevaluate the other forward lines. Just because you got a much needed home win against Florida with superior play by your first line (shocking), does not excuse the poor play by other forwards. Maybe the injury to Jack is precluding any other moves until he returns.
Bovada has the Bruins as -220 on the Moneyline. At home, and their injuries are not what they were when we beat them earlier in December this game has the signs of going sideways. Especially without Captain Jack. If they somehow win, it would display the mettle and growth of a team that can compete down the stretch. Fingers crossed.
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Trade Speculation and Rumors 2018-19
in The Aud Club
Posted
What if he is a chip for a full time RD partner for Dahlin? The fact he is the most tradable asset and we have enough young talent at LD is true. We need to strengthen other areas of weakness. Ristolainen with Pilut and Bogosian with Guhle would be solid.