GASabresIUFAN

My feelings about Adams are the same as always; he never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. For the 3rd offseason in a row he had an opportunity to make a couple significant upgrades to his roster to get the team over the hump. Instead he continue to play on the margins. When we needed legit goaltending he failed to keep Ullmark, failed to acquire a legit starter but instead gave us fringe players like Anderson, Subban, Tokarski, and Comrie. We have needed partners for Dahlin and Power for years as well as defensively strong D. Instead he gave us Lyubushkin, Johnson, Clague, Gilbert, Stillman and Clifton. None of which were suitable partners for our top guys and none were better than 3rd pairing players and most were just roster filler. This offseason is more of the same. He has still failed to acquire any good defensive D who can play in our top 4. Instead he acquired a 3rd high skill offensive D, whose early returns show him as an ill fit with Dahlin or Power and suspect defensively. He also downgraded the skill level of the forward group. He shipped out Skinner and Mitts sending away 40-50 goals and 100-120 points. They were replaced with McLeod and Zucker who scored about 25 goals and 60 points last season. His arguably positive change was to remake the 4th line to a faster more physical group, unfortunately with only a marginal upgrade in scoring. This offseason so far, IMHO, will be remembered, unless the team makes the playoffs, for KAs continued inability to attract good talent to Buffalo. The same excuses for failure echoed all offseason. The price was too high, the player wouldn’t wave his NTC, the player wouldn’t sign an extension etc…. All that said there is a chance this team can make the playoffs. Despite being in the bottom 5 again HDCA, UPL’s good season helped the Sabres give up around 240 goals against. If he and his backup (Levi or Reimer) can repeat that performance then the team has a chance. However, they will need to stay healthy, and get rebounds in performance from Tuch, Tage and Cozens plus further development from Benson, JJP and Quinn. They also need to get the PP going. Ultimately they will need to score 265-270 goals. Not impossible, but everything will have to go right.

But it’s clearly not Adams calling Avs and asking what they want for Byram.

This seems to imply that the Avs knew Mitts was on the market and inquired at what it would cost to acquire him.

This is not how it happened. It’s pretty clear KA never intended to re-sign Mitts. Once the Sabres were reasonably out of the playoff chance he put Mitts on the trade market and took what he believed was the best offer. Whether he turned down offers for forwards, defensive D, goalies, or picks/prospects we’ll never know, but I find it hard to believe his priority was to acquire a 3rd high offense defenseman. It seems much more likely he was looking for a talented young player under contract/control and he didn’t care if the player was a winger, center, defensive D or offensive D. Colorado made the best offer of a former 4th overall pick who was under contract for this season and then an arbitration eligible RFA (which is control for another year to 2 years depending on the arbitration result - if not extended first). KA would have been happy with a center as well. After all he traded a former 9th overall center prospect (Savoie) for a 24 year old 3rd line center with one year left on his contract and then, like Byram, is an arbitration eligible RFA. This move was about saving money, not about making the Sabres better.

Byram - Pts/Game played 21/22 .57 22/23 .48 23/24 .40 Quinn - pts/game player 22/23 .31 23/24 .70 - This is what has people so excited. The team's biggest need was a top 4 D who played good defense and had a complimentary skill set at Dahlin and Power. This is not Byram. I'm also a little bearish on Bryam as his defense and production have decreased each season in the NHL. He is still young enough to rebound, but the trend is not going to in the right direction.

Give up Thorny. He doesn't understand. He's ok with the status quo. We have been on the giving end of the "big trade" so many times in recent years that we have forgotten what one really looks like coming the other way. Trading away ROR, Eichel, Kane and Reinhart are examples of what we have been clamoring for KA to finally do in reverse. Go get an establish good to excellent veteran in his prime for picks and prospects. Other GM gets these deals done all the time, why can't Adams? Mitts for Byram isn't the "big trade" because the "big trade" is supposed to improve your NHL roster without depleting other areas of your NHL roster. Trading your best playmaker for a 3rd offensive defenseman doesn't qualify as the big trade because it depleted the forward group with no adequate replacement on the roster or in the system. It also didn't fill an area of need on the defense since this new offensive D isn't good defensively and the Sabres have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL for the last few years.

How do you judge a coaching change until you see how the team plays under the new coach?

Yerdon wasn’t saying that at all. What he was saying is that KA should have done more to upgrade the forwards, which is exactly what so many of us have been saying. We have cap space and the prospects; use them to get a top 6 forward. He never said anything about trading Power, or Cozens or an other core piece. Dumping Skinner and Mitts may have saved money, but it also sent 40+ goals and 100+ points out of town. The “replacements,” Zucker and McLeod, had 62 points between them last season.

The make over of the 4th line, like most things KA does, was a year too late. Lafferty is the biggest upgrade here. Aube-Kubel has never been a full time NHLer and Malenstyn is a gamble with only 1 year of NHL experience at 26. More speed and more physicality is a good thing. Not sure they bring anything more offensively than last year’s mess. The 3rd line is a complete unknown at this point. McLeod is a downgrade from Mitts, but an upgrade over Krebs. Zucker is a downgrade from Skinner offensively, but an upgrade from Olofsson. Greenway is still Greenway and remains limited offensively. I’m also not sure the 3rd line will actually give us many more goals than the 4th line. The other bottom 6 question is where does Krebs fit into the bottom 6?

I'm still waiting for "the big trade" Trading assets for a 4th line player (Malenstyn) and a 3rd line center aren't big trades. Also trading a player you weren't inclined to re-sign for a player with one year left on his contract, that you probably can't afford to re-sign long-term and who plays a position in a similar style to 2 other players who have already committed to with huge long-term contracts smacks of desperation rather than roster improvement. McLeod as a 3rd line center is not an unreasonable acquisition and the cost is whatever. Savoie was one prospect is a sea of quality forward prospects and is unlikely to be missed. However, downgrading for Mitts to McLeod is a significant downgrade for the roster. McLeod may skate faster than Mitts, but he isn't a better passer, goal scorer, or as physical a player. Their two-way play maybe about the same and both can play center or wing. If we get 35 points out of McLeod we'll be lucky as we watch Mitts put up 75 points or more as the 2nd line center for the contending Avs. He also is an RFA after this coming season As to Byram, I'm just not a fan of his acquisition. I fully understand that KA was trying to get the best asset he could for a quality player (Mitts), who, for reasons only know to KA and TP, he didn't even offer a new contract too. Byram doesn't bring a skill set we don't already have with Dahlin, Power and even Clifton. He isn't great defensively and to make matters worse, he only has one year left on his contract and we already need to re-sign Quinn, JJP, McLeod, and Levi. The theory is he'd be a good partner for Dahlin or maybe Power. In 138 minutes with Dahlin last year (our 9th most common pairing) they had an XGF of 46% and an actual GF of 47%. Power with Byram was even worse with an xGF of 37% in over 60 minutes. Color me un-impressed. Again KA is banking on a rebound from core players and improvement from kids like JPP, Quinn and Benson to make his team better. As Joe Yerdon said on Biron/Dunleavy's podcast, KA's moves look the moves of a GM trying to make marginal improved on an established playoff team and not the moves of a GM trying to turn a moribund franchise around.

The 30 somethings may lobby for inclusion because this will be “their last chance” to represent in the Olympics. However, if you are Canada are you really including 36 year old Stamkos, 38 year old Marchand and 39 year old Crosby? Is Sweden really going to field a team with 3 35 year old D in Hedman, Ekholm and Karlsson? Obviously it will depend on the continued quality of their play, but it’s a lot to ask these older players to still be at the top of their games 2 years from now.

They only had 11 D play in the NHL last year. Heiskanen is the star, but after that Joki is in a group with Esa Lindell, Olli Maatta, Mikkola, and Valimaki. Would Risto still be a consideration? By comparison, Sweden had 35 D appear in the NHL last season. It is an aging group with Hedman (33), Karlsson (33), Ekholm (33), Ekman-Larsson, Adam Larsson, Brodin and Erik Gustafsson all currently 30 to 33 years old. Dahlin maybe the only current lock for the Swedes on defense given the age of the other top Swedish D.

Great question and I think the answer is KA was looking for a guy with just a couple of years on his deal. Zegras has 2 years left on his deal for example. Ultimately I think there is enough cap space for a player to get a guy on a short-term upgrade, but not enough to commit to another long-term deal, especially if the Sabres are again on the outside looking in on the playoffs. The hope is that the upgrade is a bridge until Benson, Helenius, Östlund, Wahlberg, or Kulich is ready for a bigger role.

Byram or Adams? By the way, I don’t question Byram O skills, or his ability to be aggressive. We saw those two things early after the trade. What I do question is his commitment and ability to actually play defense.

Quinn played for Canada at the U20s and at the 22/23 WC. Quinn was tracking for a 27 goal season last year. If (when?) he take another step or two in his development over then next few years, I think he can become a 35g 45a type player. That kind of player will definitely be on Canada’s radar. I think he has more upside than Cozens. That said, if Cozens also reaches those levels he could be on the radar as well. The issue for Cozens is the depth of Canada at center. McDavid, Crosby, McKinnon, and Point are the top 4 centers now, plus Stamkos and Reinhart who can play either center or wing. Then you can add Bedard and now Celebrini. Cozens has a huge hill to climb.

Yes. Yes he was determined to move on from Mitts and Byram was the best piece offered. Yes, I think he is a Tyson Barrie type player and no I don’t think he is a good partner for Dahlin regardless of what Adams said at a press conference. Byram came with a 1 yr contract and then an RFA. This gave KA a player with potential and some control. However, the money doesn’t work long-term. Quinn, JJP, McLeod and Levi will need new contracts and then Benson and Tuch after them. There won’t be enough cap room after that to pay Byram big $ as well. I predicted before last season that KA would trade Mitts because he didn’t want to commit big $ to him long-term. I make the same prediction about Byram now. He’ll be traded next off-season or if the Sabres are again falling short of the playoffs, he might be traded at the deadline.

Fair? No, Even Adams agrees his core isn’t good enough. Why else makes overtures to acquire Necas among others? I do agree Adams believes that is his core less Byram plus UPL or Levi. Chicago, with Kane, Toews and Sharp, needed to be supplemented with Soupy and Hossa to get over the top initially. Adams fully understands what’s wrong with his roster, he just can’t close the deal he needs to get the job done. I don’t know if it’s risk aversion, the internal cap, FOMO on some of the prospects, incompetence, poor salesmanship or in part all of the above or something else, but it’s past time to get such a deal done.

Asked and answered.

But it doesn’t mean it’s wrong either and in this situation I think Armstrong is correct. Adams could learn something from Armstrong. There is a time for patience and a time for aggression. The Sabre need their GM to be more aggressive and that is the lesson here. Fixing the 4th line is not aggression, it was again Adams doing the bare minimum to simply field a roster. As Yerdon said on Duffer’s podcast, these were the moves of a GM trying to get a playoff caliber team deeper into the playoffs not the moves of a GM trying to turn a moribund franchise into a legit playoff team. The Sabres haven’t not yet replaced the lost production of Mitts and Skinner. It’s past time to fix this issue. It’s time for an aggressive move.

If he gets back to 80+ pts, he'll certainly be in the mix. The biggest issues with Tage are that he really needs to play center and his defensive play is lacking. Larkin is a far superior 2 way center and has a career Face off % of 52.4% to Tage's 42.1%. Also pts wise Tage leads Larkin by a single point over the last 3 years and Larkin has out pointed him 2 of the last 3. The case for Tage is that Lindy helps with his 2-Way game and Tage gets back to being an 80+ point player who scores 35+ goals. From a lineup standpoint, maybe Team USA moves Eichel to the wing, opening a slot for Tage as the 3C. I firmly believe Larkin is making the squad as the 4th line C and top PKer.

I think it's to improve his team with the added bonus of putting Edm between a rock and a hard place. My guess is Stl tried to trade for one or both players and Edm refused to discuss a trade or the price was crazy high. Stl's top 4 D are 31 to 33, plus they have Suter at 39. They could really use a youth injection on defense. Stl's pipeline is decent, but much like ours, if heavily weighted toward forwards. Their best D prospect, Theo Lindstein, is only 18 and years from the NHL.

It wasn't the specific players but the aggressive move to improve his team that caught my attention.

The US team has Matthews, Eichel, Hughes and Larkin already down the middle. The wingers are both Tkachuks, Connor, Robertson, JT Miller and Guentzel. The US also has Keller (33g 76 pts), Boeser (40g), Boldy (only 22 with 29g & 69 pts), as possible depth wingers. Who are you dumping for Tage?

Oh look a GM who is actively trying to make his team better.

After looking at the projected roster for Canada, I'm going to give Quinn a shot at making the Canadian team. The B/R staff lists Zach Hyman and Marchand on the Canadian roster. Hyman is 32 and is coming off a career defining season (54 goals). Is he still going to be that player at 34? Marchand is 36. He is still a solid scorer, but at 67 points each of the last 2 years, is he really going to be one of the 12 best Canadian forwards at 38? If Quinn is a pt a game player in 2 seasons, why wouldn't he get some consideration?