GASabresIUFAN

It’s much easier to be accurate when you have time to throw the ball and real players who can catch the football when it’s thrown to them. That said Josh is a unicorn in so many ways. He has the work ethic to learn and get better. He also is a once in life time athlete at his position. He is a tough as a linebacker, can run like a power tailback, can read a defense like Tom Brady, throw a football like Dan Fouts, lead a team like Joe Montana and is as competitive as Jim Kelly. I watched a show on the NFL Network where they were discussing teams changing their schemes to be more like the Bills offense. One of the panelists said it’s basically impossible because they don’t have a Josh Allen to run it.

I don't know if this has been previously posted but it's a good read. https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-assessing-the-risk-of-tage-thompson-s-extension-with-buffalo-sabres-1.1844752

https://theathletic.com/3546726/2022/09/08/nhl-calder-trophy-candidates-rankings/ 1. Owen Power 5. Jack Quinn JJP not listed at all. Not even in the honorable mentions. However Lukas Reichel 11th, Rossi 13th, and Jack Drury HM.

Actually I’m not pessimistic about Thompson overall. I do think he is an improved player. However I don’t view him as a perennial 30 goal player. History says he’s unlikely to maintain a 15% shooting %. I see him more like Tuch. This isn’t an insult, but if he does it again then I’m be thrilled he proved me not as optimistic as I should have been.

Besides Stafford, William Karlsson, and Jack Eichel, even Taylor Hall to a certain extent. Taylor Hall was 26 when he truly broke out. In the 3 season before his MVP year he has shooting % of 8.9, 9.1, and 8.4/ His MVP year he had shoot 14%. In the subsequent years he shot 9.7, 6.9, 7.4 and then his wonderful 2.3% with us. His career % is 10.1. He received his 42 mill deal (6 for 7) after his initial breakout campaign at 22 for 80 pts (53 assists) in 2013-14. They moved him 2 years later as his play dipped. William Karlsson in his 2 seasons before his breakout at age 25 shot 8.3 and 6.3%. His 43 goal year he shot 23.4% and then followed with a solid 14.2. Since then he has slipped back down to 8.9 last year, although he wasn't awful in the prior season. His pts have decrease from 79 to 56 to 46 to 39 to 35 last season. Not exactly worth the 5.9 per season he is being paid for the next 5 years. Now lets look at our friend Jack. Shooting % his first 4 years - 10.1, 9.6, 10.2 and 9.2. Then he has a career year ( at age 23) with 36 goals (78 pts) with a 15.9% shooting %. The next year he shoots 3.3% and then back to career averages of 10.5 with LV last year. We actually gave him the $10 mill before the breakout season, but he looks severely overpaid at this point. Hopefully for LV he gets fully healthy and gets back to at least being a point a game player. None of these guys are Mark Stone for example. That has never had a % less than 12.5 over a full season and has average for his career 15.6%. Now if he could just stay healthy. There are plenty more like these guys. The only guy who sorta fits TnT's profile and sustained it that I can even remember was Briere sort of. He played one season at age 21 with a 8.9%, then played parts of the next two seasons with % of 11.1 (13 games) and 25.6 (30 games) before truly establishing himself at 24 with a shooting % of 21.5. From 25 to 33 he ranged from 12 to 17% over full seasons. This is what we have to hope for Thompson, but even in Briere's case he showed he was primed for a breakout with the 25.6% in those 30 games. Thompson was completely out of left field.

None of those guys have close to Tage's production yet! However all are ahead of him based on their ages and games played. Prior to last season through age 23, Tage's played 145 games 18g 17a for 35 pts. (.24 pts/gp) Mitts through age 23; 195 games 33g 47a for 80 pts (.41 pts/gp) Cozens through age 20; 120 games 17g 34a for 51 pts (.425 pts/gp) Krebs through age 21; 61 games 7g 16a for 23 pts (.38 pts/gp) Honestly I have more faith in one of these 3 making a big step forward soon then I would have been on Tage making the leap. I think it's more likely that not, that at least 2 and maybe all three take a huge leap forward this coming season. Honestly they all have more raw talent than Tage and that is not to disparage Tage. Also I don't give a crap about what people say about players positions going forward. Back in the day Briere and Hecht floated between center and wing depending on injuries or matchups. Today is DG's "position less" system, the who playing where is less important than who plays with whom. DG is probably going to experiment with all 3 of Krebs, Cozens and Mitts at center or wing until he gets the chemistry he wants, and even if we moved on from Tage (which we obviously aren't going to do any time soon) we'd still have a very talented forward group with 5 players (including Asplund and Z) who can play center if necessary. A top 9 of Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Skinner, VO, JJP, Quinn, Tuch and Asplund (or Vinnie or KO) would still probably be the most talented team we have had in a decade. Ultimately, I think there are a plethora of reasons KA should have waited to give Tage a big contract. Ultimately he gambled and hopefully it will work out. I'm still waiting for someone to point a contract similar to Tage's that worked out. Pastrank doesn't apply because he was younger by a few years and already had productive seasons with shooting % of 10.8 and 13.9 prior to his breakout. A 30 goal season with a 13% wasn't a huge surprise once given a bigger role.

The Reinhart and Tkachuk situations were very different. Both guys had already proved themselves over multiple seasons. The Sabres should have locked up Reinhart long before he got to the point he needed to be traded. Also both players wanted out for good reasons. The Sabres with constant coaching and management changes stunk and Reinhart wanted to move on. Tkachuk wanted out of Canada (among other issues). Tage is now a key piece of a club heading in the right direction with a coach he likes a GM committed to doing the rebuild properly. He’s also has had only one good year.

I get the above consideration added some pressure on KA to get a deal done, but how much really? Could Tage eventually had walked if they did a shorter deal. Absolutely. However as the Bills, Atlanta Braves and hockey teams like TB have shown the likelihood of a player wanting to leave decreases with winning and a good team culture to go with it. If this team takes the next step, no way Tage walks if he is part of the core of a close knit winning team even after an arbitration case. Also this team is designed for some of these guys to move on. That’s why KA drafted 3 centers in the 1st rd this year. Even without Tage, the current team would still have Mitts, Cozens and Krebs down the middle. I would have waited to at least mid-season to see if Tage continued his high level of play before re-signing him. KA actually did the bold thing and locked him up. I hope this works and Tage rewards the team and the fans with a 40g 80+ pt season.

Like Jack 😉 or like Reinhart? Or like William Karlsson. I’d suggest looking at how TB handled Point (and others) to see a management team that doesn’t jump gun. Obviously finding the failures are easy. However show some similar situations where it worked out.

I agree, I see Vinnie playing most nights as the injury fill in and rest day replacement. Having Vinnie gives DG a Swiss Army Knife player who can sub in anywhere and the added luxury of giving others a game off periodically to rest nagging injuries. I can also see Vinnie getting hot and sending someone who is struggling to the bench.

New article in the Athletic about the dangers of signing players to big $ contract after a sudden breakout with a career high shooting %. https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/ Here are some excerpts Then they give 20 examples of how contracts such as Thompsons work out and it isn't good. 14. Drew Stafford - and we know how that worked out. He scored 31 (17.3 shooting %) in 62 games at 25 years old and we gave him a big $ 4 year deal. He scored at 8.8% through out the deal. 3. Jeff Skinner - 13.8 % in his contract year and thus JBot's big $ reward. To say he stunk the next couple of seasons is an understatement, but he rebounded nicely last year, but still ....... 1. Ville Leino 5 on 5 shooting % with the Sabres over the next 3 seasons was 7.3% I'm not saying TnT's contract won't work out, but this article gives serious food for thought.

I'm projecting a similar point total as last year, but with much more dominate all around play. The reason for not much growth in points is the addition of Power and as he comes along, he'll being to take some PT away from Dahlin, which will be good for both players.

25g 35a. He and Cozens combine with TnT to give us the best center play we have had since the Briere/Drury Sabres.

Robert Plant and Allison Krauss on Tuesday.

Let me know when he scores 25 goals in the KHL and then we’ll talk. Right now he is an unknown quantity.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/08/29/broncos-cut-punter-sam-martin-after-he-refuses-pay-cut/ FYI

ask and ye shall receive.

Who?

We need to add Mitts to the conversation. He and Cozens are the ones to watch this coming season. KA has now set a precedent that a 35 goal 65 point breakout season is worth $50 mill over 7 years. Remember Mitts was the No1 center coming out of camp last year. In his last 81 games as a Sabre, Mitts has 16g 25a for 41 pts. Is it really to hard to imagine that if he stays healthy he could put up 25g 35a. Cozens looked like he is putting it all together at Worlds after putting 38 pts last year. His year over year improvement was substantial, going from .3 pts/gp as a rookie to .48 as a sophomore. Like Mitts, you feel the production blow up coming. So how does KA handle these two if they score 60 or more next season? Cozens is an RFA at year’s end and Mitts will have one year left on his bridge like TnT did.

Or an over involved former NHL player father like someone else we know.

This is end......

I'm with @Buffalonill on this one. I'm very concerned about regression with TnT for the coming season. While the term and $ would be fine for a more proven player, but Tage literally has played one full NHL season. His improvement as a player under DG is undeniable, but last year 15% shooting % is a major red flag. Someone brought up Pastrnak as an example of how someone can suddenly emerge. However David shot 10.8% and 13.9% in the year prior to his first 30 goal season. In that season, at age 20, he actually only shot 13% and has sustained that or better since then. Thompson is not Pastrnak. Thompson's % prior to this past season were 5.5%, 6.5% and 8.3%. I would have liked to at least see how TnT played this coming season for the first 30-40 games before making this extension. Now if Tage regresses, we have another albratros contract on our hand like Skinners. Pominville is an interesting comparison. Pommers first (of 3) 30 goal seasons came with a 16% shooting %. He never came close to that % again. However, Pommers was also a good playmaker and could still drive offense even when the puck wasn't going in. Pommers had 3 seasons with 40 to 50 assists. Tage doesn't have that in his arsenal at this point if the puck isn't going in. I'll be happy to be proven wrong again on a TnT contract. However the stakes are much higher now. If the Sabres don't get legit value from this contract, it could really limit the upside of this rebuild.

That’s a big deal for a guy with one successful season coupled with a career high shooting %.

This is the type of stat that truly reflects why they drafted him. I agree that prior admins likely didn’t go to that depth in their analysis.

But they said they also go to the draft with only about 115 to 140 players on their draft board.