GASabresIUFAN

I just want him to take a regular shift and not be liability defensively. If he and his partner (Joki?) can give us a steady 12-15 minutes a night, that’s all we really need. If they add some O great, but it’s not really necessary.

Sounds to me that they are written into the Sabres lineup in ink.

I didn't make the analogy. Someone else compared extending KA's deal to extending Josh's. All I said was Josh had lead us to the playoffs before being extended. Not only are the sports apples to oranges, but so is comparing GM to player.

Except the NHL is made up of 58% CHL graduates (as of 2021/22 opening night). 8 of 27 picks is under 30% Now compare both to TM who drafted 13 CHL players in 25 picks or 52%. Consider how much better we drafted under Jbot and now KA taking significantly less CHL players, I'd say limiting CHL drafting has considerable merit.

Yes and No. I think those 6 team, especially NYI, CBJ, Buff and Ott are almost too close to call where they finish. Each of those teams have huge question marks that if answered correctly could vault them over the others. Can the NYI score enough and how will they play under a new coach? Can Buf and CBJ stop the puck? How well does Ottawa integrate the new talent. As I've said 50 times, Comrie's play is the key. He gives us even decent goaltending, our ability to roll four talented lines is our great advantage and should help us leap over the teams with more "proven" talent.

Jbot was of the mindset to get prospects outside of the 1st round with a longer lead time until they had to signed. I think this strategy has considerable merit. It has allowed guys like Cederqvist, Rousek, Huglen and others to develop at their own pace. A total ban on CHL I agree is foolish, but staggering when prospects need to be signed is smart. Even KA and company use this in their drafting. Only 6 CHL players have been drafted by KA in this 3 drafts outside the 1st rd (and only 2 of 6 there). 4 of the 5 came in the COVID draft, and I think that stemmed from a lack of scouting in many places. If you break his drafting out side of the 1st rd you see All 3 CHL leagues - 6 (Q - 3, W - 2. O -1) Also Komarov may not be subject to the typical CHL rules (like Nylander wasn't). Russia - 5 Sweden - 5 NCAA/USHL - 1 Other Europe - 3 other NA juniors - 1

Ultimately, his coaching picks and NHL roster decisions were his undoing, but even then we didn't know how really terrible RK was until year 2 and KA gave him Hall, Staal, etc... and the whole thing imploded. To KA's credit he picked the right coach, but has done a better job of bringing in talent since the mess in year one.

By the way that isn't correct. Unlike TM before him, Jbot made Rochester a consistent winner with the goal of the prospects gaining experience and learning to win in the A before coming to the NHL. Unfortunately TM left the cupboard of prospects pretty bare. He also drafted well. He only had 18 picks in his 3 seasons. 5 of those players currently have significant roles with the Sabres, another 6 are in the A including well liked late round picks Cederqvist and Rousek. Another 3 are still in college and all are considered legit NHL prospects. I would say that doing a good job of building the pipeline and helping to build the organization. He also acquired Thompson, Skinner and Jokiharju. He also signed Pilut, who may make the Sabres in camp. I understand the Jbot dislike, but to say he didn't improve the organization simply isn't true.

Thus this contract was premature. Also 4/6 of the D were drafted or acquired by the hated Jbot, plus our 2 top goal scorers, and our next 2 centers.

Yes, but that doesn’t mean anything until we see results on the ice in the NHL. I’m as bullish as anyone on the direction of the team, the depth in the pipeline and the improved organization. I have nothing against a long-term extension, but I think it’s was premature considering we are still near the bottom of the NHL in the standings. If this year go as I hope, then by all means give KA a long term extension as a reward for accomplishing what his predecessors failed to do. So far that’s not the case. Don’t forget Jbot also improved the drafting, improved the AHL and eliminated many pieces of dead weight from the roster. That couldn’t overcome bad coaching choices, some bad trades and other issues. KA has done many good things, but the failure to fix the goaltending is a huge hole in his resume that can also sink rebuild 3.0. I’d have waited one more year before giving the extension.

No, why not wait until the plan shows it's actually working and the team become competitive. Give him a one year extension for now then a multi year once the team actually moves up in the standings.

Ok genius what will you say if the Athletic prediction comes true, the goaltending fails again for the 3rd time under KA and the team is battling Mon for last in the Atlantic?

Seriously? Didn't Josh lead the Bills to multiple playoff appearances before being extended? How many playoff appearances has KA lead us to?

@Taro T The Sabres best season under TM 81 pts in 82 games. Fired after one more season The Sabres best season under Jbot 68 pts in 69 games. Fired after the season The Sabres best season under KA 75 pts in 82 games. Given an extention.

At the trade deadline.

Premature

Noooooooooooooooo! Comrie 50 Anderson 25 UPL 7

I’m not worried about scoring. To much talent in a offense oriented system to not score. I think 260+ is very reasonable for this group. That said, CBJ scored 260+ and easily missed the playoffs (only 81 pts) because of poor D and mediocre goaltending that allowed 300 goals against. They were a -38 in goal differential. My floor for the Sabres this season is a CBJ 2022 type season where we score 260-265, but still give up 280 to 290 goals and finish in the low 80’s in points. My best case for the Sabres is that they score 265+, Comrie comes through with Ullmark level goaltending or better and the team gets to a 0 in goal differential pressing Boston for the 4th slot in the Altantic. I believe their is a very real chance that 2 of the old guard, Wash & Bos, take a step back and open the door for 2 of Ott, Buffalo, CBJ and the NYI.

Sheahan isn’t making this team unless someone gets hurt in camp.

I have come to really like Asplund. He is unique on the Sabres in that he is tremendous defensive forward. In addition he seems to grow each year offensively and always seems to have excellent chemistry with Mitts. I think his production grows again this season regardless of which line he plays on. If used mostly as a defensive forward, I can see low 30’s in points with about 10 goals. If he gets more Ozone time and is teamed with Mitts or Cozens, then I see 15 goals and closer to 40 points.

The East is a very interesting mix of teams. You have the old guard still at a high level in Pitt, Wash, and Bos. You have 4 teams in their prime in TB, Tor, Car, and Fla ( all have been in the playoffs each of the last 3-6 years straight). One new guard team in the NYR. Then you have 3 teams in each division fighting to make the playoffs in the NYI, NJ, CBJ, Buf, Det and Ott. Each of these teams has an argument that they will be the team knocking on the playoff door this year. The NYI were a playoff team recently, have great goaltending and some stars up front. NJ argues that their young roster is about to explode (in a good way). Columbus says they scored 260+ last year, they added Johnny Hockey upfront and added Gudbranson and Jiricek to help the D. Ott added goaltending and big name forwards to a solid young core. Det added goaltending and filled holes with proven vets to add to another young group. Buffalo is building on a great young core featuring two No. 1 overall D and can roll 4 lines. I find all these arguments reasonable and that should make for a really interesting season. If I have to rank the teams on most likely to take the next step, I'd have Ott (1), CBJ (2), NYI (3), Buffalo (4), Det (5) and NJ (6). The funny thing is which of these 6 teams gets the best goaltending probably wins this argument. On paper we have the worst goaltending of the six, although I don't really trust the tandem in Columbus or NJ either. The NYI have by far the best tandem in Sorokin and Varlamov, followed by Ott with Forsberg and Talbot. However, goaltending alone won't get the NYI to the playoffs. Of this group I really like our chances if Comrie plays 50 games at near Ullmark level goaltending.

Which is a nice way of saying this author is modelling something that can't or shouldn't be efficiently modeled without significant changes. I don't think I'd publish the result of something that on the face of it doesn't make sense. The Sabres, despite injuries, a 40 year old goalie, incorporating new players, while still fielding a team that often played guys like Bjork, Hayden and Eakin played the second half of the season with a record of 20-17-4 or an 88 pt pace. In the last 1/4 of the season they went 12-6-3 or an 105 pt pace and that included a nearly 500 record against playoff teams during that stretch. Also a 6-2 record with Power in the lineup. Somehow this incredibly poor model suggests a team that was progressing throughout last season, who upgraded goaltending and defense, and that is adding 3 prized rookies (a top overall pick in Power, and two forwards that had historically excellent seasons in the A last year), that the team would somehow be just treading water. As I pointed out before, even if the returning players just play to last years level, full seasons of Mitts, Krebs, Tuch, coupled with the additions of JJP and Quinn, will add somewhere around 30 more goals to this lineup. A lineup that scores 260 or better will be in playoff contention. It's really that simple, but this complicated model doesn't seem at account for that effectively. Comparing us again to Det and Ott, the higher placement of this list imho is more of a factor of getting easier to predict veteran players in the off-season rather than substantially improving their teams. That said, they do have the advantage of more proven goaltending.

I have us in the 260s not 290s. This is what I posted in the "half empty" thread

7 of their top 50 players

https://theathletic.com/3610072/2022/09/20/sabres-prospects-kulich-rosen-savoie/ Unlike the season preview, this is actually a solid review of the kids who played in the Prospect Challenge by Matt Fairburn. 1. Kisakov - 2. Cederqvist - He's taller, stronger with a strong net front presence. 3. Savoie - Speed and skill a really stood out\ 4. Kozak - Sound defensively 5. Kulioch - AHL ready now. Competes over all 200 feet of the ice and willing to be physical. 6. Lindgren - Speed and great skater. Makes quick outlet passes. 7. Rousek - Elite passer (according to Appert). Tenacious on the puck. "Everyone wants to play with him" also according to Appert. 8. Komarov - needs to work on his first 3 steps to get quicker 9. Rosen - quick release with a very hard shot. Also good speed 10. Weissbach and Laaksonen - great help to younger players all week. Liked Weissbach's offense.