GASabresIUFAN

He was born in Buffalo and money talks, but generally I agree he is a long-shot. How he plays is what I'm looking for. The key here is to stay to the general plan, but at least be flexible enough to allow that some areas simply aren't going to get filled with prospects right now or that it would be best from the franchise if they were manned by more veteran players. I wouldn't mind making a move for Chychrun right now and see if it works. If he doesn't my guess is we can recover most if not all we paid from a contender at the deadline.

No wizardry just numbers crunching. UPL couldn’t stop the puck in the AHL and historically over 40 goalies don’t fair very well in the NHL. Add that Comrie had never been an NHL starter and only had 28 games of NHL experience and you have a recipe for failure.

The Edm Oilers back in the day often left Grant Fuhr out to dry and he more often then not made the save. I love our up tempo style. It’s exciting and fun to watch, but that makes the need for top notch goaltending and some defensively responsible D even more imperative.

….and the Sabres are allowing 3.68 GA per game.

That would involve trading for competent defensemen. Don’t hold your breath. He might even try to trade for a goalie without trade protection.

I wrote back in July that the biggest issue with this rebuild was the continued failure to address the goaltending. I was told by many that I was wrong, that Comrie was the answer and to wait and see. I’ve also said for well over a year that UPL is a bust. Well here are 25 games into the season and the goaltending, as hard as it is to believe, if actually worse than last year when we gave up 290 GA. We are on pace to allow over 300 goals. Yes defense is part of the problem, yes the forwards failing to back check is part of the problem, but the goalies are also terrible. This rebuild plan can’t succeed until the goaltending is fixed. The sad part is that he probably can’t address the issue until the off-season.

This team is 4-8-1 against teams currently in a playoff spot. 7-5 against everyone else. The schedule for the rest of Dec is very hard. 8 of the remaining 11 games are against playoff teams. If they want to show they have a playoff chance go 7-4 for the rest of this month. Jan is a little easier 7 of 14 are against current playoff teams. February is our easiest month with only 4 playoff teams in 10 games, but by that time the team’s fate will be sealed.

Other than Miller (and Hyde) this is the healthiest the D has been all season. At various times this season we have been without 6 pro bowl D in Milano, Edmunds, Poyer, Miller, Hyde and White. The fact that they have survived at all is amazing. Going 9-3 and leading the conference is even more incredible. The 3 losses were by a collective 8 points and truthfully they could have won all 3. All 3 divisional games are at home. We will beat the Jests and the Fish at home the next 2 weeks and take control of the division. We will also roll the Bears in Chicago. This team is on a mission at this point. The biggest remaining worry is the Bengals at Cinn in 4 weeks. That game could easily be for the 1st seed in the playoffs. If Miller is back by then I like our chances. I have a feeling the Pats game at home will be meaningless. I love Cooks expanded role. Having him as a dual threat out of the backfield adds another dimension to the offense and is why he was drafted. I also like the more controlled Allen and our willingness to grind it out more often. I think that is playoff winning football. My only wish for the offense is to get Knox more involved.

Here is the Sabres current situation for next year Forwards (8) - Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Quinn, JJP, Krebs, Mitts and VO - Cost 30.7 RFAs - Jost, Cozens and Asplund Key UFAs - KO and Girgensons Prospects - Savoie, Rosen, Rousek (RFA), Weissbach (RFA), & Kulich Defense (6) - Dahlin, Joki, Power, Samuelsson, Bush and Bryson - Cost 15.6 RFAs - Fitz; UFA - Pilut Prospect - Johnson (if he signs) Goaltending (2) - Comrie, UPL - Cost 2.6 UFA - Anderson Prospects - Levi & Portillo The Status Quo approach is to do next to nothing. At forward re-sign Jost, Cozens (my guess is the deal will be 6+ for at least 6 years), Asplund, and Savoie earns a job in camp. This leaves room for Girgensons or KO to re-sign. My guess is Girgensons because of his style of play. On defense, they may re-sign Fitz, but my hope is he brings in real depth. Lastly in goal, in theory he could stick with the tandem under contract. This is not a step forward IMHO A more aggressive approach is needed. At forward - trade VO & Mitts (maybe as early as the deadline). Bring in a solid 2 way forward to help the 3rd line, someone like Miles Wood or JT Compher. Re-sign Cozens, Jost and Asplund. On defense - trade, acquire, sign 2 more veteran D. For example sign Nick Jensen and make a bold deal for Dumba or Chychrun. Trade Bryson away if necessary. In goal try to sign Adin Hill. UPL isn't the answer and Levi will need at least a year in the AHL. Skinner TNT Tuch JJP Cozens Quinn Woods Krebs Savoie Girgensons Jost Asplund Dahlin Samuelsson Power Chychrun Joki Bush Jensen Comrie Hill

Nothing has changed in their odds over the last few weeks

No, but they aren't uncommon either. What does the underlined even mean? yes, KA could have brought in better depth on D and better goaltending. Two years and 20+ mill cap space a year is plenty of time to bring in better players than Butcher, Hagg, Pysyk, Comrie, Anderson, Subban, Dell, Pilut etc... These also have been obvious areas of need of the 3 off-seasons KA has been in charge.

Honestly I think the attempt was two fold. One because our goalie coach had had experience with Murray and my guess is he told KA that could fix the problems. If Bales was right (which it appears Murray was fixable) and Murray came, that would have solidified for years to come and allowed time for Levi to develop properly. The second was Murray would have helped get us to the cap floor. Murray had already acquired Bishop's contract as insurance, but had Murray come, my guess is KA would have traded the Bishop contract to someone else. My point on Anderson was that he decided to stay. He could have retired, but instead re-signed. As to re-signing a traded for player, it's not wishing for a happy ending. It happens all the time in the NHL in markets worse than ours. Regardless, it's a risk worth taking. These guys, for the most part, are professionals and want to win where they are at. Berglund situations are incredibly rare. For guys on expiring contracts, they want to play the best they can to get another deal. We are also not talking about the long-term. We are talking about taking a risk now, to fix this year's team because it is worth fixing.

and now you know why I have been arguing for weeks (actually months) for KA to step up and try to fix the defense. We have cap space, picks, prospects and an excess of NHL forwards to get a deal done. I know he wants to stick to the plan, but it's time to find help for the struggling defense.

However at the pace we are scoring if we can get our GA down from the current 3.68 to 3 we’d pick up an extra 40 goals in differential by seasons’ end and likely be at or near a playoff spot. If our bottom 5 D are -28, isn’t that the obvious place to begin to improve the team?

No I don’t think KA would have signed anyone for the $ you mentioned. As I wrote earlier I don’t think he had any intention of spending more than a few million over the cap floor at most and even with Jost we are still there. To some extent I agree with him. He correctly wants to leave cap space to sign his core to decent deals. Mule and TNT’s deals are the first steps toward that goal. However that doesn’t preclude making positive moves while he has excess cap space. As to the trade market, some guys think X and then get traded here and learn what a great place WNY is and then want to stay. Do you really think Marino wanted to get traded to NJ? Do you think he is happy he did now? Winning cures many ills. I think it’s pretty clear Buffalo is building something good. If we acquire a top 4 D or even a reliable 5/6 D to help our depth and provide mentorship to the young guys, that guy will be happy to stay and help. While he wasn’t traded for, do you think Anderson was happy he signed here and was thrilled to return a second year? Sometimes you just have to take a risk as a GM. So far I just don’t see that in KA. Eisenhower famously said (i’m paraphrasing) that a plan is worthless, but planning is indispensable. In many ways I agree with KA’s plan. I agree he should retain cap space to sign his core like he did with Mule and TNT. However, Eisenhower wanted his commanders to be flexible as new information came in. So how does that apply here? The Sabres are on pace to score over 300 goals for the first time since they won the President’s Cup 15 years ago. This offense is probably a year ahead of schedule from the plan. Unfortunately they are also on a pace to give up over 300 goals. This is actually worse than last year despite the additions of Bush and Comrie. I think this is where KA should be flexible. Some smart additions could help reduce the goals against. If they can cut down about 40 goals against (going from the current 3.68 ga down to 3) KA could get this team back into the playoff hunt for this season. Unfortunately I just don’t see him being flexible enough to deviate from the plan and I think it’s a critical mistake. The more these kids learn about winning now, the better off they’ll be long-term. Some have written it takes two to tango. While accurate, there are guys available who would help. Some the price maybe to high right now like Chychrun or Boesser while others have been available for little or now cost to acquire like Baer and Reilly. I honestly believe there is some reasonable help available. We just need KA to try. The goal should be winning now. We have the offense to do that now, KA needs to help get us there now.

What does that even mean? Do they want to be here because it’s the only offer they have, do they want to be here because they think this is their best opportunity in the NHL, or do they want to be here because they want to be part of a rebuild in Buffalo? It’s also a great excuse for a GM. “I’m sorry I tried but that player didn’t want to be here.” While it may be true in some cases, UFAs aren’t the only way to acquire talent. Take the trade market for example. The vast majority of NHL player don’t have trade protection and for those that do, it’s up to the GM to sell them on his vision and the opportunity. The are even opportunities in the waiver market (see Reilly). Start winning and KA won’t have any problem finding guys who want to be here. Oh by the way, the Sabres even with Jost’s addition are still spending a league low amount. Sheehan’s termination saved much of Jost’s contract amount. Also if you take out Bishops contract, the Sabres are still at the cap floor. In real $ the Sabres are only paying 700K for Bishop’s 4.9 mill cap hit. I haven’t done the math yet, but I think we might be just enough over the cap floor to even trade Bishop’s contract to a contender and recover an asset or two.

Yet somehow they can’t build a good defense and get even decent goaltending. The issue isn’t the staff. The issue is their boss and his boss. Winning starts from the top down and until KA properly supports the team and insists on a winning product we won’t have one. It’s quite possible that TP has an internal cap and that is a huge limiting factor. However the offense is playoff caliber. Maybe it’s time TP took the training wheels off and allows KA to fix the issues on the team to make a playoff run a year ahead of schedule. If TP isn’t limiting the payroll maybe it’s time for TP to tell KA to make the appropriate moves to get back to the playoffs.

Rene

Good they left him off. Now it will be even easier for team USA to win ! 😜

I've never advocated a long-term extension for Mitts. I've never even advocated for a 3 year bridge deal. All I've ever said is that he is a very talented hockey player who I believed could succeed in the NHL. I have been unwilling to write him off as a bust, especially after Tage's breakthrough because Mitts has gone through many of the same trials. That said, he and VO together have been awful 5 on 5 this season. Something needs to be done. In the goal they allowed yesterday, Casey failed to clear on one end and then VO gave the puck away. They both need to be more physical on both ends of the ice and if they don't learn to do it, KA will move on. The plan was always to move on from VO to make room for kids coming up, but his awful play this year 5 on 5 will hasten that departure. If Krebs continues to make progress, Mitts could easily be traded at the deadline or in the off-season. As I said before, I'd like to see DG put Girgensons with Mitts and VO to forecheck and hold them responsible. DG is unlikely to bench Mitts or VO. Our PP is one of the best in the league and Mitts and VO are important pieces of that 2nd unit.

Savoie for Canada. Rosen and Östlund for Sweden and Kulich will also like be chosen.

Comrie has to be an improvement on UPL, but no goaltender will last under the constant mistakes from all of our D but mostly the bottom pair and the injury replacements. Since Mule returned we are a solid 4-2-1, but big offensive games (34 goals for) masks a fundamental problem still on the backend. In those 7 games we have given up 26 goals (or 3.71 per game). That's a 304 goals allowed pace over a full season. No offense can sustain winning when allowing that many goals long-term. At least it's down from the 4.375 GA during the 8 game losing streak. On the bright side, I thought the offense would score at least 260 goals this season with potential for more. Even with the 8 game losing streak we are on pace for a whopping 311+ goals for pace for the season. This is a playoff caliber offense right now. To bad KA won't give in the support it needs to become a playoff team this season.

Correct. A young team with developing players needs to learn how to win. The GMs job is to get them the tools to help the process. KO and Z were already here for the forwards, but where is that mentor (who can still play) for the D?

One other note: Against TB the other night JJP and Power assisted on Quinn's goal. I don't remember 3 rookies combining on a goal. I'm sure it's happened before. Anyone remember another 3 rookie goal?

Basic Stats Quinn - 20 gp 6g 8a 14 pts +5 13:20 ATOI After not scoring in his first 4 games, has 14 pts in his last 16 games, and 3g 2a in his last 4 games. JJP - 26 gp 6g 8a 14 ps +3 14:14 ATOI Now has pts in 4 straight (1g 3a) and 6pts in his last 7 games. Power - 25 gp 0g 10a 10 pts +6 23:38 ATOI Beniers leads all forwards with 21 pts in 24 gp and has a 17:04 ATOI. Also leads in p/gp at .88 Calen Addison is leading D scorer with 2g 12a but is -9 and is only skating 16 minutes a nught Perfetti and Maccelli have 16 pts each. JJP and Quinn are tied for 4th in scoring among rookies. Macelli is second in P/GP at .80 and Quinn 3rd at .70 Power leads all rookies in ATOI with Sanderson second at 21:04. Jake also has 1g and 10a. Guhle is 3rd at 20:22 with 1g and 8a but a -9. Beniers 10 goals leads at rookies followed by Pinto with 9, Wyatt Johnson with 7, then Quinn, JJP and Kent Johnson with 6. Maccelli's 14a leads all rookies, followed by Perfetti & Addison with 12, Beniers with 11 and then Power and Sanderson with 1. Another rookie to watch is NJ's Fabian Zetterlund with 20GP 5G 8A 13pts and a +12. If balloted today, who wins the NHL ROY and who wins the Sabres ROY? My NHL ballot (if I had one) right now would be: 1) Beniers 2) Power 3) Sanderson 4) Perfetti 5) Quinn Still anyone's chance. After Beniers their are 10 forwards with 10 to 16 pts. On D there are 3 D skating 20 minutes a night plus and 4 with 9 to 14 pts.