GASabresIUFAN

Win a friggin puck battle

Statistical evidence why we need to overhaul the defense.

Awful giveaway

Yep.

As of right now, these 9 players are the most likely scenario. I know Ruff has moved TNT back to wing since returning from injury, but I like him at center. I think the lineup flows better with him there. I don't think a Norris/TNT combo is a good fit. JJP TNT ???? ???? Norris Tuch ???? McLeod Greenway After those pairs, I'd like to see how well Benson, Kulich and Zucker work with each center before slotting them.

If you read my prior post; 3 years 4.75.

Last I looked Norris and TNT are ahead of him on the center depth chart. Before this season he hadn't had over 30 points in a season. Until he proves this season isn't an aberration, he's a 3C.

McLeod’s shooting % in Edm was 11.9%. He is shooting 22% this season and only has 17 goals. To pay up for a career shooting year is Cozens all over again. Someone brought up Casey’s deal. His was based on two consecutive 55+ seasons. McLeod has never had over 30 points in an NHL season prior to this season. Again paying up for a career year would be a mistake. He is a solid two way 3C until he proves this season isn’t an aberration. 3 years at 4.75 max.

Given who they have re-signed and Adams statements, I don’t think any new top 6 forwards are in the cards. Norris, Tuch, TNT and now JJP are core top 6 forwards. They just re-signed Zucker and Greenway. The McLeod acquisition was a big move from this season and has worked. He’ll be re-signed. That’s 7/9 of the top 9 forwards next season. The remaining slots are going to 2 of Benson, Kulich or Quinn. Benson and Kulich are our top young forwards not named Peterka and both play the right way. Management is likely counting on a big jump in production from both next season and their ELC’s help stay cap compliant. As much as I’d like to see a top 6 playmaker added to this group, I don’t see it in the cards at this point. I do agree on two top 4 veteran D. I’ve only been asking for them for 3 years. Getting back on topic for a minute, I’ve been debating a 3 yr deal vs a 7 yr deal. The more I think about it, maybe a 5 yr 6.5 per season contract would work for both. This would give JJP another FA contract before turning 29, while giving the Sabres a core piece for most of his prime.

I did. I felt Cozens should have traded over the summer and I criticized the contract the day it was signed because of the shooting %.

This is precisely my point. The run it back option would be a mistake. However to create flexibility, some current Sabres with high or potentially high cap hits need to go. The Samuelsson buy out is probably the easiest decision, but after who do you move to free up money to fix the roster issues? Do you trade Byram or Power or try to keep both? Is your most productive young forward on the block (JJP) or do you move Quinn, a recent top 10 pick or do you trade the 3c who you traded Savoie for? If I was the GM, I wouldn’t mess too much with the forwards. We need to re-sign JJP and McLeod. Guys like Lafferty or Krebs would be on my chopping block in favor of playing Kozak. My changes start with the defense. Moving on from Clifton, Power (or Byram) and Samuelsson creates potentially $16 mill in cap space to get veteran stay at home D to replace them.

Which forwards are you punting?

... and ? Ultimately it doesn't matter who they move on from. They can't keep both and have money to improve the defensive play of the D group. I'd prefer to punt Power, but I firmly believe he'll never be a reliable defender and I believe Byram will become decent defensively and will be cheaper to retain. It's also not like No. 1 overall D haven't been traded in the past. Former No. 1 overall D, Erik Johnson was traded from Stl to Colorado during his 3rd NHL season. I hope your correct, but with Adams and Pegula, you never know. Which forward are you punting by the way? Quinn? JJP? McLeod? Kulich? Who?

So Power, who is a defensive liability, should remain because he's helped the 2nd PP unit? He and Byram have the same number of goals (7) and Power has 3 more assists. However Power is a D group worst -14 (Clifton is 2nd worst at -6) while Byram is +6. Byram has 7 EV goals and 24 of his 26 assists are at EV. Power has 6 EV goals and 22 EV assists. Both players have improved their shot blocking this season. Power has 101 and Byram 94, but Byram takes the body and leads 70 hits to 24.

Here I'll lay out the Cap situation again. The Sabres have 16 players under contract, plus 7 RFAs including McLeod, JJP, Byram, Quinn, Levi, Kozak and Bernard-Docker. Keeping all 7 RFAs will cost about 24 million. The 16 current contracts cost (with Skinner's dead money) $72,293,015. Add 24 mill to that and we are at 96,293,015 with a cap projection of 95.5. We have no money to work with unless we move on from Power or Byram and buyout Samuelsson.

I agree Adams should be gone, but because of the Power's contract and similar bad deals, we will be up against the cap just keeping our RFAs and we'll still have a bad team. We have to get out from under some of these obligations to fix the roster. That means moving on from either Power or Byram. I'd prefer to keep Byram because I think he is just as good offensively as Power, he is willing to work on his defense and he is willing to hit someone. I see no such willingness from Power to improve defensively or by physical.

You are hard on him because he stinks. He deserve every ounce of criticism he gets. He is being paid to play like a No. 1 D, but instead only delivers a 50% effort. You are correct, he has no idea how to play defense and is either unable or unwilling to play physically. Until those things change, his contract is one of the worst in the NHL.

In McLeod's 1st 40 games as a Sabres he had 6 goals and 12 assists, with 4 of the 6 goals comings in the games 5-8. That means just 2 goals in the other 36 games. In the last 20 of those 40 games, McLeod had zero goals and only 6 assists. In the last 26 games he's 11g and 12a assists, with 9 of these 23 points coming in the last 7 games. I'm sorry, but that's the farthest thing from consistent production. Spin it anyway you want, but I'm not paying up for that offense and if we sign him for more than 3 years we will regret it.

The Athletic playing cards says he is only playing to 50% of the his contract amount. Everyone agrees his defense is terrible. As long as his defense remains terrible he'll never contribute to the level of his contract. His contract was unearned and way premature. Cozens was also a stupid contract at the time it was made as Adams was paying for a breakout year that was based on an unsustainable shooting %. Don't get me started on Samuelsson. The Sabres, with 7 RFAs including JJP, McLeod and Byram, are going to be a max cap team next season if they run back the current roster. The way out of cap hell and to move on from most of the D group including a trade of Clifton, a buyout of Samuelsson and a trade of either Byram or Power. They need to be replaced by 3 veteran D who actually play D. This is the only way to move this failing rebuild forward.

My point is I'm not giving McLeod a 5 year deal and either is Adams. I know you are a fan, but you have to admit his offense has been all over the place this season. Also it is a fact that Lindy demoted him to the 4th line this season when he wasn't contributing.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I'm coming back around to the idea that Terry is finally going to punt Adams. After all the team has regressed the last 2 seasons despite Adams pronouncement that the playoff are now the objective and all the changes he has made. Norris possibly being out for the rest of the season might be the last straw for Adams. As to the roster, other than Reimer, the entire roster is under contract or control for next season. Forwards Norris, TNT, Tuch, Zucker, Greenway, Lafferty, Krebs, Malenstyn, Benson and Kulich are under contract, with McLeod, Quinn, JJP and Kozak as RFAs. That's 14 players for 13 slots with guys like Östlund and Rosen pushing from below. Defenders (and I use that term loosely with this bunch) Power, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Clifton, and Bryson are under contract with Bernard-Docker and Byram as RFAs. UPL is also under contract and Levi is an RFA. SIgn all the RFAs and you have complete 23 man roster and a non-playoff team that is spending to the cap. I project the 7 RFAs to cost about 24 mill next season. Add that to the current contracts plus Skinner's dead money and you get a cap number of $96,293,015. Projected cap is 95.5 for next year. Is running this back really worth being a max cap team? Something has to give.

If Adams pays him on this year's numbers he is crazy. The 22% shooting % is not sustainable and will lead to a dangerous overpay. We also have to take into account that guys like Kulich, Östlund and Helenius are coming and at some point they are going to take McLeod's and others roster spot. That said, he has been better than advertised overall although the offense is terribly inconsistent. He has been hot the last 9 games, but invisible the prior 8 as the graphic last night pointed out. I'd sign him for 3 years and try to stay $5 mill or under. I value his FO acumen and two way play, but I don't want to overpay for the offense. I was very critical of McLeod earlier in the season as he went through a major scoring drought and got demoted to the 4th line. I worry that could happen again and I can also see him over the term of a new deal getting pushed down the lineup as more talented players take the 3rd line C job. I don't want to be paying $5+ mill a season again for a 4th line player (see Okposo).

Playing with better players always helps with the counting stats, but the eye test shows a more complete player even when not playing with TnT or Tuch. The bottom line is that this isn’t a surprise breakout year like Cozens, but the continued development on a top 6 forward who has improved every season in the NHL.

There is a major difference. Cozens 31 goals came in his 3rd season, but he only had 13g and 38pts the season prior. JJP is also in his 3rd season, but unlike Cozens, he proved he was a capable scorer the year prior when he had 28g and 50 pts. This season he has still scoring, but has improved his playmaking to go along with it.

Adams likely wants offer sheets so that he can match and doesn't have to actually negotiate the next contract. I agree with @thewookie1 that I'd try to trade Byram and getting some NHL talent in return for Byram.