GASabresIUFAN

@Thorner and I finally agreed that Natural Stat Trick was using empty net situations in their EV calculation which IMHO is wrong. The Sabres are +3 differential at EV (5 on 5, 4 on 4 & 3 on 3) (175 gf/172 ga). Our 169 5 on 5 goals is 3rd most in the NHL and our 175 EV goals are also 3rd. EV scoring is not our issue. EV goaltending and defense is a huge issue. We have allowed the 8th most goals against at EV. The Sabres are -45 when short handed (53 ga & 8 shgf) (7th worst net PK) The Sabres are +31 on the PP (39 for with 8 shorties allowed) (8th worst net PP) The Sabres are also - 10 in empty net situations ( 6 on 5 or 5 on 6) (19gf vs 29ga), although 22 of the 29 have been empty net goals scored against while we had our goalie pulled. Clearly we are having trouble keeping in zone offensive possession when trying for goals when behind late in games. Where this team sucks is on special teams. We also take too many penalties (224 times short handed 4th most in the NHL) while only drawing 213 Power Plays. Also our goaltending has been significantly below league average in save % 5 on 5 and on special teams. Solutions 1. Fire all the coaches. The EV offense improved year over year, but everything else still stinks or regressed. 2. Add better D and goalies. This should help the PK and EV defense.

I’m not tossing his time in Buffalo, but it’s a more accurate to compare this season to his prior career before Buffalo. Before coming to Buffalo his career shooting % is 11.9 not 14.2. Comparing this season to this season plus prior seasons skews the data. You don’t compare things to themselves.

Actually it’s nearly double his career number. The average you are utilizing includes this season which inflates his prior performance. In his 3+ years in Edm he averaged 11.9. There is no way he replicates his puck luck going forward.

I’d like to thank Cozens for all his efforts in helping the Sabres sweep the Sens.

Just some stats on Östlund this season. Noah has 35 points in 43 games including 18 goals and is a +20. 4 PPG and 3 SHG. That is a stellar rookie campaign in the A and for a 1st NA season. But that only tells part of the tale. In his 1st 12 games in NA, Noah had 1g 0a with a +1 In the next 31 games he scored 17g 17a + 19. In his last 7 games he added 7g 5a +12 This is someone who is improving game by game and rapidly before our eyes. I downgraded him on my prospect list for the slow start. I am thrilled to be proven wrong about this young player. He is probably the best prospect in our system at this point. https://theahl.com/stats/player/10157 (Östlund game log)

I loath Adams as a GM, but...... McLeod for Savoie is working out so far. (Please don't shoot the messenger). One more year in the A for sure, but then after that I can see him challenging for an NHL roster spot.

We weren't discussing Byram, nor did I bring up his injury history. The Sabres acquired Norris and within 3 games of arrival he was already hurt and is likely to miss the remainder of the season. This will mark his 5th straight season in a 5 year career in the NHL without playing a full season. Sure it's possible that he now goes on to play 80+ for the next 7 years, but how likely is that given his history?

LOL. Why on G-d's green earth would we trade an eilte two way defender for a 45-50 point winger making 7.5 a year for the next 7 years on a new contract. That contract is almost as stupid as the one given Power. I wouldn't even trade Power for Lafreniere.

Defense rests! Well said.

Have the Sabres shut down Norris for the season yet? What are the odds that we get more than 60 games a season from Norris? How long until he gets the Skinner buyout?

That’s perfectly fine. Score 20 and drive opponents crazy. Sign me up.

In the broadcast last night they talk about Lindy playing guys he trusts at the end of games. Quinn was on the ice at the end of the game last night.

We need drivers of offense. Östlund is that kind of player. If we stick him with guy like TNT and Norris, he'll be their playmaker. He's kind of a smaller version of Tuch, but I'd argue a little more pass first. In his draft year when Noah played with shoot first players like fellow 1st rd forwards Lekkerimaki and Ohgren, Östlund lead that team in assists with 33 (only 9 goals).

If we are going to draft 7th or 8th, I'd like a solid ball of hate that is Bear. The Caps have Wilson. Ottawa and Florida have a Thakcuk. We need big ball of hate as well.

I think he is an all around forward who can do what his team needs him to do. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3578116/2022/09/22/sabres-prospect-noah-Östlund-the-gifted/ This is a long article, but really well done. This kid is a driver of offense and responsible on defense.

Ok, but how big are these guys and over how many seasons were those NHL games accumulated. There is a huge difference between someone playing 200 games in 2.5 years vs someone playing 200 games over 4 years.

Ok, he's not just another shoot first center.

Interesting. What were their points per game in the 1st 62 games vs the last 20?

The forwards can't be blamed for D who don't clear the crease, who turn the puck over constantly at the blueline on offense and pass aimlessly on defense. Of our young forwards, Kulich and Benson, make a considerable effort on both ends. JJP is improving. It's a convenient theory that the forwards aren't really helping the D, but the D have been terrible for years. Most of the forwards who made zero two way effort, like Skinner and VO, are gone, but the D continue to make the same errors. Our HDCA have remained in the bottom 3rd of the NHL for the last 4 years. Get better D who clear the crease, block shots and make a good first pass, the complaints about forward support will go by the wayside.

Dahlin and Power were just recognized in the Athletic for being to of the best NHLers under 25. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6204329/2025/03/18/nhl-under-25-team-bedard-celebrini/ Don't forget that the Sabres are in one of the smaller markets in a relatively niche sport.

Exactly. We are basically the same team we were two years ago. Good offense, bad defense and goaltending. Until we fix the defense, nothing is going to get better.

I have been asking for upgrades in net and on defense for 3+ years. That said, Power has made zero progress as a player in the NHL in 3 years. His O game is about the same and his decision making and positioning have regressed. His lack of any sort of physical game limits his usefulness to a team trying to be harder to play against and his terrible in zone defensive play is a huge liability.

I’m glad you’re optimistic, but for a team that needs to win now, waiting another 5 years for him to get a clue isn’t acceptable.

Sadly I agree.

If you are asking me if I think our top 9 forwards are good enough to be a playoff team. I do. Do I think they could be better. I do. Do I think they are good at the two way hockey. I think some are adequate, some like McLeod are good and some aren't. Some have improved dramatically (like TNT) and some of the kids (Benson and Kulich) work hard at it and are getting better. As I've said. The primary issues with this team is bad defense and goaltending and poor special teams. The special teams is solvable with better coaching and the acquisition of better defensemen. It's really that simple. We fix the defense, this team should contend for the playoffs next season. I fully understand that you want to blow it all up. However that's not realistic and I don't think it's necessary.