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Derrico

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Posts posted by Derrico

  1. Tankstebb has been here for a couple of years and has over 2k posts. If there is a good ole boys club, he's in it. This just has to do with him being a blockhead and catching the wrath of Angry Eleven. That's all. We're all blockheads at times. If you can survive the wrath and not go run and hide, you're in the club.

     

    You need five years service for that.

  2. So, I am planning a trip to Erie, with my nephews, to watch Connor McDavid play.

     

    Out of the remaining games left, who would be the best team to watch in your opinion? (I'm looking at London [Zadorov] and Kitchener [bailey], for obvious reasons.)

     

    Saginaw...London...Barrie...Niagara...Plymouth...Windsor...Kitchener...Sarnia?

     

    I'm not sure but I just picked up my gens knights tickets for feb 17, I get to watch zadorov for cheap and up close and continue to watch dal colle progress.

  3. Watching the Oiler's highlights from last night, immediatly the first thing that sticks out is how much I don't want Yakupov.

     

    Watch around the 1 minute mark, when he completely gives up on a play that leads to a scoring chance. It would've been a goal if his teammate hadn't hustled all the way from behind Yakupov to bail him out. It's not hard to figure out why he's a -29 after watching that.

     

    http://video.nhl.com...d=sb:highlights

     

    Just an aside but I watched parts of their game last night (one of the first times I've seen an Oil game this year). Man their D is as advertised. Their transition game breaking out of their own end is not bad but there were 3 or 4 odd man rushes against in the 10 or 15 minutes I watched. Their D looked horrible. Also, Scrivens played lights out but he also got lucky. San Jose hit two crossbars and missed an open net in the little time that I watched. I was pleasantly shocked to wake up and see the Oils won. I didn't notice Yak the whole time.

  4. He was adding to the sarcasm.

     

     

    Honestly we have a bunch of Cap room. I would love him to be here on this team because I think he is an incredible leader and player.

     

    That's it, we certainly need leaders. We're going to be icing a young team over the next few years and I want a couple of solid vets who can really show these kids the way (similar to when it was rumored Buffalo offered Shane Doan a boat load of money). Also, although we are obviously hurting for scoring (something like record bad) if Miller is gonezo next season then we're going to have to step up our defensive game going forward as well.

  5. We have talked a lot since Bryan Murray arrived about the possibility of trading with Ottawa. If Ottawa were interested in Matt Moulson or Steve Ott, what would it take to pry Mika Zibanejad out of Ottawa? He would be perfect for the Sabres as a RHS Center who is 20 and has shown signs he can contribute in the NHL on a regular basis.

     

    I am spitballing but wanted hear thoughts.

     

    He may be 20 but is his brithdate in Feb or August :P

  6. Didn't Darcy publicly say something like "for Miller it would be a 1st, 2nd, Prospect, Player" or basically the Pominville deal? I feel like that was the asking price this summer.

     

    Ya I think so and I think that is too high. I would sign up for just a 1st (or more likely just a prospect) if you're fairly confident he won't resign. Since there has been no indication of him signing before July, you have to take what you can get IMO.

     

    Moulson on the other hand should net us more.

  7. Well we're 9 back of Calgary with a game in hand after our 1 point effort and a Flames win last night. I'm still gunning for 1st overall pick but if not I need to be in the top 3. For that to happen we can only end up in 2nd last. Let's start (keep?) cheering for Calgary wins. Which Sam will it be fellas?

     

    As an aside, I have been to several Gens games this year and love Dal Colle, but from what I've read and highlights I've seen, it's one of the two Sam's that this team needs. After a season like this that we've (dare I say) suffered through, only one of the Sam's will be satisfactory.

  8. the x axis is the age of draft picks, starting at the left at 17.9 (for June draft), those are September born players. Each bar is one month.

     

    The y axis. The purple tells you the number of pics, so the picks increase each month from September to January. The scale is times 50, so for the players I looked at, about 250 were January picks. Then there's a big dropoff to the number of December picks, which came to about 100.

     

    The y axis green tells you the average games played, so the players picked at 17.9 play about 6 games each per season for the players that I looked at. The green bars hang out near 7 for September,Aug,July,June,May,Apr, then they decline a bit for March, Feb, and January. The green bars are higher, more games played per pick, for December, November, and October.

     

    What I'm arguing is that when people talk about this, they are often talking about the purple bars, it's interesting to them that the spread isn't consistent. What interests me is the green bars, that the games played in the NHL are also not consistent.

     

    Interesting, thanks for the research.

  9. The January born 17 year old is overvalued because he plays fewer games per pick than the December born kid. I read this first in a magazine article by Gladwell, and he was trying to explain why there are so many more January born players. What interested me is who you want to pick, so I made this chart, that I've put out a few times here now.

     

    The purple bars are the number of picks by age (*50 I think), the green bars the number of games played

     

    I'm sorry but I can't understand the graph. What do the x and y axis represent?

  10. I haven't seen the freakanomics, but I believe Deaner/Lowen/Cobley are mixing two concepts that you guys are combining into one.

     

    Yes, many more Jan/Feb/March born players are drafted to play in the NHL, so there is more total talent in players born in that quadrant. As Derrico says, "the cycle continues through Junior," but it ends. The January born kid is overvalued at 17

     

    You want to draft the Oct/Nov/Dec born player, because he will play more games per player, the breakdown is something like 9 games per Dec draft pick per year as opposed to 6 games per year for the January draft pick

     

    This doesn't really affect the 6'3" kid, but is critical for the 5'11" kid

     

    What Liger is talking about though is a different issue. Kids in Junior score about 50% more per year, at least those that are going to the NHL, so if you are comparing the ppg for Bennett vs Reinhart, you ought to consider the age of the kid. If you talk about rankings though, the NHL does do a good job of ranking by age, because the September born kid before the cut off and the kid born almost a year later, are valued correctly, and will each average 7 games per year

     

    I think the real question is: Is he? I would argue either the opposite or atleast that he's valued correctly (better player). I was not a very good hockey player but I played rep hockey when I was younger (the highest I ever made was AA so not very good lol). The best players were relied upon and got much more ice time. But more importantly I found that the coaches paid much closer attention to the better kids (I'm not sure if they were older or not). In theory, the older kids are the better kids early and with all of the extra advice they've been given throughout, maybe the younger players are at a disadvantage adn thus don't develop to their potential. That's my take on it atleast, certainly an interesting discussion.

     

    As an aside, I implore you to read the freakonomics series. I think they have it in video form too but read the books if you can. Certainly worth the read imo.

  11. An interesting read.

     

    http://www.plosone.o...al.pone.0057753

     

    This is similar to what they said in Freakonomics. The premise is kids older amongst their peers were more co-ordinated, bigger ect and would therefore have a better shot at making their young rep team. Because they make the best team possible they get the best coaches. As they are the oldest and sometimes better developed, they are usually the better players and coaches give them extra attention. The cycle then continues all the way up through junior.

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