Curt

I saw an ESPN prediction that Casey NELSON was going to score 20+ for the Sabres this season.

I can’t imagine that, mostly because I’ve had a long day and your question/sentence was way too long. Personally, I wouldn’t want Power playing in games with a bunch of scrub prospects who are willing to do anything they can think of to get signed. So definitely not against Pittsburgh. I might give Power one game just for fun.

I doubt that the number of legit D prospects in the organization determines whether or not Power plays. Can you imagine: We don’t think it’s the best thing for our #1 pick future franchise defenseman to play in these games, but this prospect team NEEDS him! If they didn’t want Power to play, they would just find a borderline AHL Free Agent to fill a spot. These games don’t matter.

I kind of feel like the US President does have a significant amount of power. As much, maybe more, than I’d like to see in any one person’s hands. The “big” elections in the US, for Congress and President are only one day every two years. So it’s not really asking a lot as far as that goes. By the way, as silly as it is, US elections are always on a week day. Also, they are completely voluntary, so anyone who doesn’t want to spend the time selecting a lazy nitwit can just stay home. Maybe because it is voluntary, people (those who do) tend to take a fair amount of pride in taking the time to exercise their right to vote. In Belgium voting is mandatory, no? Do most people see it as an annoying burden that they are forced to participate in?

OT, but in Belgium, who decides who will be Prime Minister? Correct me if I’m wrong, but in Belgium the King is the titular head of state, but the Prime Minister is the actual head of government. The Prime Minister is not elected himself, but appointed by an elected Parliament? The Prime Minister, not the King, would essentially by the equivalent of a US President. Why the concern about there being extra elections? Again, correct me if I’m incorrect about anything.

Yeah, duda and I already discussed how I was wrongish, see 4 posts up.

Last season he had more hits and more blocked shots than anyone on the Sabres’ roster.

I actually thought it was more, but it was 41 games at 12 mins per game. I don’t know if he would have played in the AHL or NHL the next season.

Before the trade, Thompson had already played a full season in the NHL for the Blues.

Me too. I only played in high school though, and I really wasn’t that good. Still like to play though.

I remember not too long ago, pro tennis players and especially women, peaked very young. Often in their early 20’s, age 18-24 probably. They would often fall off in their mid-late 20’s and retire by 32. Now it seems that a lot of players are having greater career, and peak performance, longevity. I think this is due to modern improvements in training/conditioning/nutrition/mental prep methods. It’s helping these players hold up longer physically. Pro tennis is a real meat grinder. The on the court work is tough, with all that running and quick stop/start on hard surfaces. But the travel schedule is absolutely brutal as well. These players burn out both physically and mentally unless they keep themselves in top condition.

It depends. Some big guys find themselves dominant at the junior levels simply because they are big, and never develop much beyond that. However, at age 17, before his draft season, Thompson was 6’1” 160. Today he is 6’7” 220. Growing 6” and 60lbs is a huge change in your body that I’m sure takes enormous adjustments as a hockey player. I think it probably slowed his development quite a bit. Krueger coaching him for a couple seasons also stunted things. And wrecking his shoulder and missing most of a season delayed things further. I think you need to look at the entirety of the situation with Thompson in order to get a clearer picture of what this breakout was.

I expect him to be a good soldier and a hard worker, but mostly in practice. I think he will be scratched as the 7/8 most nights but will bring some aggression on the few days he does get into games.

I can make an argument, sure. Dahlin has out produced both McAvoy and Werenski in terms of points, and equal or better shot share numbers. 2nd half of last season he looked as good as anyone not named Makar/Hedman.

Apologies for not being very clear. I was thinking more along the lines of players who were in and out of the lineup and/or barely played for a few years before having a big breakout, but where unable to maintain a similar level of production. Not players who were long established NHLers, with a well established baseline sh% who had a sudden spike and then returned to previous levels. I know there are lots of players who have had such one year spikes/dips. I guess the gist of it boils down to whether you view this as a one year anomaly from a player with an already established track record or as a breakout season from a young, improving player. I think that there are a lot of reasons to view it as the latter. Apologies if you’ve already stated it somewhere in here, you probably have, but you seem relatively pessimistic on Thompson going forward. What do you predict of him over the next few years? Personally, I don’t think he will maintain a 15% sht%, although he could. I’d expect it drop a little, but for Thompson to maintain a 25-35 goal, 25-35 assist stat line going forward.

You can’t just look at players and their salaries though. The situation in which they signed the contract makes a difference. For example, Makar and Heiskanen (among others) both signed contracts that included all of their post-ELC RFA years. That is going to suppress their salary a bit. Dahlin is going to be coming off a bridge deal that eats up all but one RFA year. In that scenario you are paying near UFA prices. Guys who signed in a similar scenario are Werenski and McAvoy. At the time of signing their contracts they had career highs of 47 and 32 (in a short season) points respectively. They both signed the offseason before the last year of their bridge for 11.5-12% of the cap. I think that Dahlin will do the same if he maintains his play from last season. I don’t know why he would get less. That puts him at $9.5M+. If Dahlin shows further improvement, I think he will sign for even more, $10M+.

I think $8ish is what he would have gotten if he signed long term last offseason. That ship has sailed. If he repeats a season as a decent 1D, it’s got to be $9M+ for sure. If he improves further and shows he is a top end 1D, forget it, probably looking at $10M+. That’s my opinion at least.

I have full confidence that Dahlin will sign long term, but yeah he is going exert some leverage. I doubt that deal comes in at a good number for the Sabres.

I didn’t really watch Montreal either, but it’s one of those fan bases with high expectations and when things aren’t going well, no one is safe. They probably expected him to show he deserves that contract and play like a real 1C. Im sure that there was lots of talk about how this kid is supposed to be their 1C and he isn’t getting it done, how he isn’t carrying his weight in that role. The fans and especially media can be relentless there. We have seen it for years, when a team spends tons of time playing from behind they can push too much trying to come back and end up scrambling in the dzone when it goes back the other way. Truth is that he is a good player who might one day be an excellent player. This was his first attempt at being a 1st line C in the NHL, and he didn’t have much support around him. He is 22 and they didn’t lock him because he was going to immediately be a high level 1C, they did it because they thought it was a good investment looking 9 years down the road. Like you say, it was just one awful year for that team, and his contract hasn’t even kicked in yet actually. He has time to grow into it. If he can be a 65 point top 6 C (assuming his defense/effort isn’t bad) over the life of that deal, then he is earning it.

I’m going to do something a little annoying, but I think it might be instructive because I feel like Thompson’s development path is kind of unique for a few reasons. Do you have any situations in mind that are similar to Thompson’s, that haven’t worked out?

Sure, the players are not equally proven, and the risk of letting a guy get that close to UFA is going to vary with each unique situation. I was just making an overarching point that the general situation is always somewhat risky.

Hard to predict, but I’d expect that he spends two full seasons, in the AHL. I cant imagine that he spends less than one full season down there, even if he is destroying the league. The real answer is that he will make it to the NHL when he shows that he is good enough to fill a role there. He has to show something in the AHL before we can predict his NHL arrival.

Yes, that’s always a big concern when these players become RFAs just 1 year away from UFA. That’s what was hanging over Buffalo’s head when they decided to trade Reinhart, and that’s the reason that Tkachuk was traded from Calgary.

Possibly, but he did just produce like a low end 1C on a terrible team and led that team in production by a wide margin.

Definitely won’t be cheap. Looking at $9M+ most likely.