Curt

I don’t think this is true about Jack. Not at all.

Im sorry. I just don’t see this situation turning around and everything being fine in a couple weeks. This is 6 years of disappointment for Eichel. It’s not just going to blow over in a little while, as the team continues to be awful. It just isn’t, unless this team turns it around immediately. I’d like to think that they have next season to show improvement, but I don’t know if they have even that long. I have been optimistic for years, but I just don’t have any left right now.

Nah, he’s just a liar.

Ok ok. Trade it! From my early perspective seems to be missing the couple “can’t miss” forwards up top. For D there is a nice deep pool of quality prospects.

It’s not that weak. No superstar at 1-2 though. If you are picking 5-10 it’s probably normal.

It’s something that the NHL is doing standard across all arenas. It’s not the individual teams doing it. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-plans-to-deploy-puck-and-player-tracking-technology-in-2019-2020/c-304218820 It was all supposed to be up and running this season, but I’m actually seeing they pulled the pucks early this season because they were having issues. Probably next season it will be in full use. So what was saying probably isn’t true. Next season it will be true though. I’m just ahead of the curve, lol.

Well there is a microchip in the puck now. That will be logging all the data, then they would use a software program to filter the data. The shot type is probably logged manually. The shooter/goalie talent would be based off of readily available statistics.

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that you are incorrect here. At least some sources use a lot more than shot location to calculate expected goals. They are now starting to use shot location, speed, type (wrist, slap, snap, on-timer, backhand), where the puck traveled from just prior to the shot, as well as now taking shooting and goalie talent into account. It’s getting a lot more sophisticated.

Are shot information based statistics subjective? They have objective criteria for them (location, shot type, speed, where the puck came from just before the shot, etc) and the puck has the microchip in it now, so they should be accurate.

I’m not saying that you are wrong, but can you describe to me how the above scenario would be the best course of action for the Sabres?

All analytics are not created equal. +/- only tells you a fraction of the story, Shot share stats are about the same. Scoring chance and high danger scoring chance numbers are a little better. I think when you start looking at expected goals , it gets more useful, but it’s also tricky because there is no standard calculation for them, so different sources calculate them slightly differently.

The ROR was done with an artificial deadline imposed. I believe that really reduced the return. Which is another reason to consider the Eichel thing sooner than later. His NMC represents another artificial deadline to run up against. I don’t want this team to be reactive in this scenario. They cant just sit pat and wait to see what happens. If they do that, and things go bad, they are going to end up watching Reinhart and Risto walk in UFA, and trading Eichel for $0.40 on the dollar. If they can’t put a good playoff team on the ice next season, they need to think about a mini rebuild sooner rather than later. And I’m all out of faith that this same group is going to be good next season. I’ve seen too many next seasons come and go.

Yes, even if we say that this season is toast. By the start of next season, they need to bring in a 1B level goalie (and resign Ullmark), a middle 6 C to replace Staal, a legit top 6 winger to replace Hall, and they need to fix the offensive creation which may require a coaching change. And these things still may not be enough. If they are not going to get all of that done this offseason at the latest, they may as well just trade Hall, Staal, Eichel, Reinhart, and Risto right now.

Yes, the SH% is an issue, and probably a lot of that is bad luck. However, they are also near the bottom of the league in just about every statistic related to 5 on 5 offense. It’s not just the SH%. They are not generating nearly enough offensive chances either.

It’s not at all about whether or not anyone feels bad for Eichel or how he goes down in history. Maybe Eichel should just buckle down and work until they become a great team, but that’s not the point. This is not an ethical, moral question. It’s about what is going to happen in reality and it’s about the what’s best for the Buffalo Sabres. (1) If they feel that the relationship is broken and Eichel is going to request a trade, it’s a lot better to trade him before his NMC kicks in than after. (2) If they feel that Eichel is committed long term to staying in Buffalo and working his butt off for the team, then keep him by all means. Do you feel confident that Eichel falls under category (2)? I feel that he is very close to (1) right now.

Yes, and it kind of gets worse too. Reinhart is arbitration eligible and one year from UFA. All he needs to do is go to arbitration this offseason then he will be on a one year deal and he can be free after next season. Risto is also a UFA after next season. These guys are not going to stick around if they don’t see success this season and next season. So these two would also need to be moved if Jack is.

@nfreeman, @PerreaultForever I would kind of walk a middle ground on this. If it’s deemed that Jack needs to be traded, I don’t think I would trade out too many guys. Hall, Staal, Montour, Eakin, Thompson, Miller, maybe Risto. Also try to move out Skinner and Okposo, somehow. Along with coaching changes. I think I would want to try to keep just about everyone else. I would also be trying to get some young roster players and/or prospects who are close as opposed to draft picks who are 3-4 years away from contributing. I would not want it to be an extreme tear down, any more than necessary. EDIT: unfortunately, I’m now realizing that because of contract reasons, if you do trade Eichel, it almost necessitates trading Reinhart and Risto. If not, they are going to walk for nothing after next season.

When you score zero goals, it’s hard to complain that your goalie gave up 3 instead of just 2.

Just being realistic. We can discuss the ideological right/wrong of players demanding trades, but in practice it does happen. They can tell Eichel to shut up and play, but having an unhappy star captain mopping around is going to do nothing but hurt the team. It’s counter productive. And after summer 2021, if they want to move Eichel, he gets to decide where he goes. That’s where the potential motivation for hurrying comes into play.

I don’t think Eichel will make it two more years. He’ll be asking out by then. The real question is not “should they trade Eichel?”. The question is “can this team get good before Eichel demands out?”

I have an interesting suggestion for a coaching addition possibility, HC or assistant, that I saw suggested by someone on another site. If Buffalo wants to make a change, no quality, experienced NHL coaches are interested in the job, an interesting candidate that Buffalo could look at is Mike Vellucci, Penguins Assistant Coach. He has a very diverse experience background. A longtime OHL HC/GM, and then Carolina Hurricanes Assistant GM/Director of Hockey Operations/AHL HC. He is someone who could serve as a coach, as a new assistant in not HC, and also an experienced advisor to GM Kevy.

Jack is not due $7.5M on July 1st 2021. He makes all $10M in regular scheduled paychecks next season. I think removing the C from Eichel is the type of public embarrassment that would be sure to push him towards demanding a trade.

Didn’t UPL give up 7 goals in his AHL start yesterday?

Thanks for the responses everyone. I feel like you are misunderstanding me slightly though. For me, the question isn’t, “should the team trade Jack?”, it’s “is it inevitable that Jack asks for a trade?” Yeah, the easy answer is some combination of: (1) Don’t trade Jack (2) Get a better goalie (3) Get a better 2C (4) Get a better coach (5) Win more hockey games I think most people agree that this sounds great. It’s not a question of what the team needs to improve. That’s obvious to an extent. However, I’m feeling like not enough of these things are going to happen before Jack gets completed fed up. I feel like his trade request is an inevitability. There isn’t enough runway left to get off the ground.

I usually lean toward the optimistic side of things, but I also like to think that I’m a realist. What I’m struggling with right now is finding a viable way forward for this Jack Eichel version of the Buffalo Sabres. They are not making the playoffs this season. They have not taken a step forward. The blame can be placed in a number of areas, but the fact remains, it’s not working and has not been working for a long, long time. Even individually, this has been a disappointing season for Eichel on the ice. This season feels like the straw that broke the camel’s back. Rumors of Jack Eichel’s unhappiness have been consistently floating around for, what, 2 years? How much longer until he demands a trade? Eichel also has a significant career crossroads inching closer. In the summer of 2022, he has a NMC that kicks in. This is significant because after that point, he would have all the power in any trade scenario. He would be able to decide if and where he goes, thereby significantly reducing his potential trade return. This upcoming crossroads will probably necessitate difficult conversations and decisions inside the Sabres FO. If, as a result of these conversations, they don’t think Eichel is going to be in it for the long haul, they should trade him sooner rather than later. I’m not purposely trying to be a downer, but this is just feeling inevitable at this point. I don’t WANT to trade Eichel, but this situation feels like a snowball rolling downhill. Getting bigger and picking up momentum until it finally hits the bottom.