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Everything posted by Thorny
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Do the Sabres make the playoffs this season (second edition)
Thorny replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
It’s a good post. I just despise the incorporated logic of choice -
Ya, unless Levi would still be readily available for NHL starts and I’m not sure that’s feasible - I’ve just heard people hint at him going to and fro from Rochester. You are right about the most teams thing. I think much of the angst is driven by how bad SandStorm seems to be. As mentioned, I’m not torpedoing Adams here until the results are bad. Presumably he could grab someone better than Storm if Levi or UPL goes down the 3 headed monster could have been an option, I guess, if they just completely parked Reimer until he was due to start. From what I’ve heard from folks like Jake Allen - it wreaks havoc on all three splitting starts but if Reimer literally wasn’t getting any and was just a failsafe, I suppose that idea could have worked. I think Brawndo comes down somewhere around there given his “better be sure” comment up thread
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No you do need a second guy in today’s nhl
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Maybe not for you, but this place 180’d their projections of playoffs based on 1 game. People somehow had the confidence to predict playoffs, a bold prediction given available data, yet whatever metrics they used that gave them the confidence to make such a prediction seemingly evaporated based on 1 solitary game, or two. I would frankly be shocked if 2 straight wins here didn’t do the exact opposite. People go from one extreme to the other, why would we expect different? Half the reason the losses get so low is because people are convincing themselves we are cup bound after pre season wins. 99.9% of the “if only THIS had gone better” analysis we do is shell-game frivolity. You are ALWAYS what your record says. You don’t get a more accurate, predictive mathematical result by shrinking the data you are parsing. The most likely result BY FAR this season is that the Sabres will win a lot of games, and they will lose a lot, people will yo-yo between “we back” and “we suck” for 6 months, when in reality merely looking at the standings at the end would provide one with a more accurate analysis than everything else put together
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Not JJ. That’s interesting
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We should remember we are, what, a two game win streak in the next 2 games from feeling the season is saved? Hold those horses just a little, sabrespace
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Goes from an all-time logo to a new-age all-time logo
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I mean, I’d much rather Levi be up and playing games than Reimer. Though, do you know if it was option to keep Levi in Roch but still call him up when we wanted him for a stretch, while keeping Reimer stashed on the roster? Unsure of the viability of that option but something like that may have been the best option
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I won’t torpedo Adams on this until we actually see poor performance from the position. Presumably he could claim one of these Reimer type guys from another team should an injury arise to UPL or Levi
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SandStorm, you are up
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Do the Sabres make the playoffs this season (second edition)
Thorny replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
Have you ever heard that thing about how human beings generally pick the answer they want in advance, and then find the reasons to support it, after the fact? I wouldn’t be surprised at all of Adams and co pieced together a plan exactly like the one you laid out: and it’s the reason we keep failing. When you skewer and cherry pick the numbers so throughly, time and time again (a 20 game sample size here, a 25 game sample size there, a 13 game sample size over here, let’s focus on goals and not assists, let’s focus on our overall team record over a stretch of season demonstrably unreflective time and time again because wins when you are essentially out of it aren’t the same, ignoring of Skinner’s actually very good production to lion’s share of his time here in favour of a short stretch where he was benched…etc etc) what you end up with is a bunch of “well, maybes” that when compounded on eachother functionally make the result you want a shot in the dark Which doesn’t even break the surface of the most important ignored variable: the amount the presence of Mittelstadt, who often performed as our best F, buoyed the totals of the other forwards you keep mentioning. Not only through actual aid to production, but in terms of players being properly slotted in roles. It’s ridiculously hard for Cozens and Tage to *make up* what we lost in Casey because you are counting on improvement upon something they did WITH Casey! We’d be asking a lot of them to return to 22-23 form WITH the complementary roster they had, to ask them to return to form, WITHOUT the guy who was as good or better than they were when they were doing it, and THEN also find a way to *replace* the outright production of that facilitator without the facilitator is not really a hope, it’s a last resort. An unlikely shot in the dark. You *need* to adequately supplement the forward ranks, which brings us back to “waiting on the kids” if the best they can and will do is Jason Zucker and Beck freaking Malenstyn, a player we had literally never heard of before we acquired him. - - - If we cut to the chase, realistically the answer to almost every “when, how can we be good” question, as long as we are operating the way we are, is simply, and only “if the kids excel we’ll be good.” Maybe we’ve just said it so many times we forget the fact it’s really the only prevalent factor, here: the dna of this team is measured in “future” currency. If the youth ever surprises, we’ll be good. I don’t see much strategy beyond assemble young talent and hope for the best -
Do the Sabres make the playoffs this season (second edition)
Thorny replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
They didn’t want to pay him. Either because we don’t want to spend money, or because of an overconfidence in the players we did give long contracts to, or a prioritization of a timeline further down the road when we presumably see our RFAs replacing his production. Choose your own adventure -
Do the Sabres make the playoffs this season (second edition)
Thorny replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
Exactly. You can’t draft your way out of it in any reasonable, earthly timeline. It’s hard to make up ground there at all when other teams are also getting free draft picks every year. It’s a crapshoot draft. We can make up a little with great drafting aptitude that’ll bear fruit in half a decade but it is not *close* to the size of the gap between all the rest of the talent, organization wide considered. You can’t draft your way out of it. You can’t spend your way out of it. You have to do both. That “balance” is some sort of revelation to some, including those in charge, is absurd. They figured out how to draft well, and for one reason or any other, none of which there are excuses for, they essentially abandoned the other aspects of team building. Right when you finally had the drafting acumen to achieve balance. Insulting to the fanbase? A function of pure stupidity? Take your pick -
Do the Sabres make the playoffs this season (second edition)
Thorny replied to #freejame's topic in The Aud Club
Revamped “4th line”, didn’t you hear?? -
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The Buffalo Sabres logo is a buffalo between two sabres. This should answer your question
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Will they leave, come back, and win a playoff series before we do? They’ve made it *7 times* since they’ve been back and I’ve had to deal with the locals on that while my team hasn’t made it once. I just keep going back to it because it’s so hilarious. I never thought when I started a playful rivalry with Jets fans that id be sitting here 13 years later without a single thing to show for it
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It’s an interesting hypothetical. That King is my neighbor, btw But I’m not flipping; I don’t need to risk losing the team for a chance at a cup, when a few deep playoff runs would do the trick. And by trick, I mean allowing me to fall in love with the Sabres again. The Sabres just need to not be incredibly stupid and find a way to field a playoff team occasionally. This should be basically a “free space” achievement- that is hasn’t been speaks to the overwhelming ineptitude of the owner. But it’s hopeful in the sense you have to be astronomically bad as an owner for this to be the case: I’m confident the next guy couldn’t be this bad i’ll sooner step away after this season upon the retention of Adams, and wait, than I would flip the coin
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That would admittedly be my only opposition to a change of owner. Rightly or wrongly I just don’t ever see the team leaving, though, so it doesn’t play as much of a factor for me. Nah, I don’t. Don’t know why multiple things being true at once is always such a bridge too far for people. Fatal flaws are able to be so, precisely because contextually there are other variables at play facilitating the emergence of tipping point decisions. Just because many players are soured on Buffalo doesn’t mean an absolute exists: to a skilled recruiter, perhaps the flaw wouldn’t be so fatal. But Adams is the antithesis of that. There are other markets far, far closer to us in undesirability (some even equal to us, if you believe player polls) than they are to our output in dealing with such. Players don’t want to play here in Winnipeg and they’ve made it 7 times since the Sabres have last. Pegula’s bad decisions compound on eachother. The disappointment is infuriating particularly *because* there have been (and continue to be) opportunities to u-turn along the way: a sense of hubris pervades almost the entire operation
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Failure to maximize available cap space, year after year..
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1) You bi-passed my point about “McEichel”, and Eichel has proven to be good enough to be the 1C on a cup championship team. There’s no leg to stand on anymore: we could have built a great team with him here. A playoff team, should have been a given. 2) Players care 3) Are you willing to put an ETA for an expectation on that, or is it sort of a, “How much is this old toaster you have for sale?” ”How much do you have?” ”50 bucks.” “Oh lucky for you it’s 50 dollars” ..situation? Like is there any time frame you are willing to say it’s reasonable to expect results by or is it just a matter of when they eventually get it done, is the time you wanted it by? Actually asking.
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1) tanking “for McDavid” (20%) was always dumb and was folly from the beginning if that was the plan, based purely on odds. That’s why we always said it was about “McEichel.” The only way the strategy ever theoretically made sense (I think it was the wrong decision) if he you thought you could competently build a team around either, because finishing last guaranteed one. 2) As bad as failing to build around a guy demonstrably capable of leading a cup championship team (and league) in scoring was, the result was nonetheless salvageable until the cardinal sin I mentioned. Our reputation is soured because of Pegula’s handling of the situation. What is the perception around the league? That’s what matters.
