mjd1001

Cozens shooting percentages..... Cozens rookie year...6.5% Cozens 2nd year...8.1% Cozens this year overall....6.8% Cozens SINCE Quinn came back this year and he is back with his 'linemates'....6.7% Cozens last year....14.7% Apparently he got paid $7m per year based on one season...that looks like he is not coming close to repeating. He is a guy that gets 180-200 shots per year, if, IF he turns out to be a 6.5-7% shooter, that means he is a 13-16 goal per year guy. There was some magic pixie dust sprinkled on this entire team last year...I really HOPE I am wrong, but all evidence I see is that he is much closer to that 7% shooting guy than he is teh 14% guy....and that is very worrying.

Most under-rated player on the team. Thats not saying much for a 4th liner, but he controls the puck. He is physical without fighting, He skates hard (and honestly is a pretty fast skater). 100% effort guy. Just wish he could score a bit more.

He looks a little better on his line from last year since Quinn came back. A little. However, he is SO bad in his own zone that 'looking better' isn't good enough. He needs to produce, he needs goals. If he isn't scoring 3-4 goals every 10 games, he is a liability.

I absolutely hate games where there's no scoring... Of course I hate when the Sabres lose... But for a game where they're losing and being shut out this is it actually pretty entertaining game.

It seems like they're controlling the puck on the power play but still not scoring. This is where Skinner would be valuable.

I am usually one of the people who is the hardest on hits to the head. I really don't even care for fighting and hockey and the big hits I don't need. Do I think that it was dirty... Kind of, but I'm not super fired up about it because he didn't leave his feet or didn't even spring up from a lower position on his knees to raise his upper body. Do I want to see that stuff in hockey? Nope. Do I think it may be could have deserved a 5 minute penalty? Possibly. But I've seen a lot other stuff besides that hit that never got called.

Is he just mentioned on the broadcast... When Johnson does that, he's risking a penalty or an injury himself... They really can't afford to lose another body on defense right now. Really wish another forward Would have stepped up and done the job.

Cozens was the close to sabreto it and it looked like he was watching the hit directly and didn't do anything... I wonder if they're telling him because of him getting injured in the last fight to take it easy for a while?

Something to consider as far as team defense goes: Last year Vegas wins the cup, with a very veteran D-group on the blue line. Seattle has surprised many with how good they have been since being in the league, and they did it with a very veteran D-group. This year: Winnipeg 1st in the NHL, average age of their top 4 d-men: 30 years (all of them 28 or older) Vancouver 2nd in the league, average age of their top 4 d-men: 29 years old (Hughes is the youngest at 24, everyone else a lot more experience) Boston 3rd in the league, Average age of top 4 d-men: 28 (no one under 26) Florida 4th in the league: Ave age of top 4: 27.5 (no one under 27) Now how about Buffalo? Ave age of top 4: 22.75. ALL of them 24 or under Colorado might be the only team a bit on the younger side on the blue line that is doing well, but they STILL are older than Buffalo and they have a lot of veterans up front at forward to help out. I personally think the problem with the Sabres is how bad their forwards are in their own end, but, experience on Defense can cover up for a lot of mistakes the forwards make. As good/talented as the Sabres D-men might be, and as good as they COULD be in the future, they simply do not have as much age/maturity/experience as the tops teams in the league do.

Just an observation about Toronto.... They have a MUCH better record (in general) against 'older' teams in the NHL than they do against younger teams. The Leafs weakness seems to be playing younger teams WITH high end talent that hasn't matured yet. Toronto doesn't do well and gives up a lot of goals to Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal, Chicago, Even Columbus and fair slightly better against the older teams. And its not a "they play down to their competition all the time. San Jose is bad, but they aren't that young..and Toronto smoked them both games. So its not a good-bad thing, but it really seems an older-younger thing. They are 1-1 against the Canadians, allowing 10 goals in those 2 games. 0-2 vs the Sabres, allowing 15 goals in those 2 games. 1-2 vs Columbus, allowing 13 goals in those 3 games. 0-2 vs Chicago, allowing 8 goals in 2 games 1-2 vs Ottawa, allowing 13 goals in those 2 games. Those are 5 of the youngest teams in the league. (Buffalo and C-bus being the 2 youngest by average age coming into the season) Toronto is a combined 3-9 against them, allowing 54 goals in 12 games (4.50 gaa) Vs the rest of the league...18-9 with 71 goals allowed in 27 games (2.63 gaa)

Not sure how many people show up, but if they get down by 2-3 goals early, that place might be as empty as we have seen in years after that.

No, I don't look specifically at non-goals other than when casually watching a game. So yes, there are a lot of break downs and bad plays that happen that I don't look at frame-by-frame...I miss a lot that way. And by no means am I saying Skinner is good defensively, he is clearly not and his impact on that side of the game is below average. I guess my point is...better to do nothing and have your simple presence clog up a passing route than to be pulled out of an area and leave it wide open. I tried to explain what I was thinking in NFL terms but I might not have done a good job. Let say a QB wants to throw to a WR 20 yards downfield on the right hashmark. A guy like Skinner, if he does nothing but just happens to be in that area, gets the QB to not throw the ball there. A guy like one of the young guys (Cozens because he is the easy example for me to use) might be a better defender. More willing to engage the WR, want to make the effort to go for the INT....BUT, all the other team needs to do is run a crossing route 1 second earlier to pull him out of the zone (similar to him chasing the puck into the corner) and BINGO, the spot on the right hashmark is now WIDE open and the play they want to make is there. Again, Skinner is not a good defender. In NFL terms he isn't a physical CB, he can't cover most WR's Man to man and he isn't really willing to put the effort in. BUT if he simply does not vacate his zone in zone coverage...by him being lazy and bad he is sligthly BETTER than someone who always 'takes the bait' and is always out of position, leaving prime areas open for the opponent. Again, not an endorsement of Skinner.....just my observation that Krebs and Cozens and even Okposo are the cause of more goals scored against the Sabres by them making bad positional decisions than Skinner. Of course, as you kinda said, we really don't know what the coaches WANT guys to do. Do the Sabres run a sound defensive system and some guys just don't grasp it or don't want to? Do the coaches want the forward to engage or not? Is the sytem the coaches want the players to run actually NOT a good defensive zone system? We aren't NHL coaches so we really don't know that so all we can do is give opinions based on what we see.

Really early look at Monday 4:30pm weather....18 degrees at kickoff, wind chill at 6 degrees....still kinda windy 10-15mph, but no where near as bad as tomorrow would be. Chance of light snow (2-3 inches for the whole day in Orchard Park on Monday).

If it had to be done, it had to be done. But that is going to be a huge competitive disadvantage for the winner. The team that the Bills (or Steelers) will play next week will have 1-2 days more to prepare, to rest..etc.

Not at all, for me its about usage. Ideally he should be a 2nd/3rd line guy. And I don't mean he needs to adapt to a traditional 3rd line role, I'm talking about minutes. If he gets 1st unit PP time (3 minutes per game or more) and gets 2nd/3rd line even strength minutes (12.5-13 minutes per game), I think thats good usage. The fact they put him on the 1st line...that is a totally different problem. PLUS, I admit he is not good defensively, he doesn't take the body, and he certainly isn't diving to break up passes or block shots. So he's not GOOD defensively. BUT, he's not as bad as what people say often and here is what I mean by that: Often times forwards playing in their own zone is not about rushing to the boards to get a loose puck, taking a guy out with a hit..etc. You want your D-men to do that. Your D-men are usually in position to take guys out from the front of the net...your D-men are in the corners more often muscling guys off the puck and getting it out of the zone. Sometimes the BEST thing a forward can do is just 'hang around' their spot on the ice (top of the faceoff circles, center/slot area) to make sure NO player form the other team goes into those spots. Compare Skinner to Cozens on goals scored against the Sabres (and I have watched replays of 100+ goals allowed by this team over the past year or so breaking them down frame by frame). Cozens rushes to the corner...he tries to hit guys...ties guys up....but often to do that he leaves his 'spot' and in the 50% of time the Sabres do NOT win the puck battle, his 'zone' on the ice is now WIDE OPEN, often a prime scoring spot, for a defender to step into and take a shot that leads often to goals. Skinner on the other hand, rarely engages in loose puck battles, won't go to hit someone in the D-zone, but he hangs around in that spot on his side in the high circle (usually) and 1 of 2 things happen: 1. The Sabres get the loose puck and he is in position to transition it out of the zone. 2) he is just hanging around the top of the circle on his side and when the OTHER team gets the puck they can't simply pass it to a D-man or winger who is WIDE OPEN in that area...because while Skinner may not be engaging anyone, he prevents that pass from being made to someone in a prime scoring spot. Again, I'm not saying Skinner is good defensively, he isn't 'good'. As I mentioned in a previous post, there are times where he won't even enter the d-zone, its like there is an anti-Skinner force field preventing him from crossing his own blue line. BUT, if he is the teams leading goal scorer, over the past 3 years in the top 3 every year, and he isn't THAT bad at playing zone defense in your own zone, I don't have a problem with him. Cozens, Mitts, Peterka, sometimes Tuch, Benson, Okposo....all of those guys 'chase' the puck or defenders in the D-zone more than Skinner (showing more effort, yes) but in the replays I have watched more often than not that becomes more of a liability leading to more goals scored against than Skinner causes because they leave wide open areas for opponents to step into. When playing D in your own zone, you can compare it to the NFL. i want my D-men to play press coverage looking for the Int, muscling the other teams WR's at the line. But my Forwards? I want them to play more like a Safetey....occupying a zone to simply prevent the ball from being thrown there. Skinner, in NFL terms, would be a TERRIBLE cornerback playing man to man, bump and run coverage. But as a safety, to simply let him occupy that deep zone to prevent a WR from going into it...he's "OK" (most of the time) As I have said, I have watched the replays of hundreds of goals allowed by the Sabres (and often posted on here my opinion of what I saw). RARELY are goals allowed a direct result of Skinner making a bad play or a bad decision. He may not make a flashy defensive play to break up something, but he is hardly ever one of the main reasons for a goal being scored against (as opposed to Power or Cozens and others)

Not to start this topic up again, but when I watch football, I want to watch the game. I want to see the players perform at their absolute best. I want to see the fast guys run fast, I want to see the great QB's make great passes...stuff like that. The bad weather games? They might be fun to look at for a minute, but to me seeing high paid athletes fall all over, trudge through snow, slide on a frozen or muddy field? Not for me. When people say the bad weather games are "real football" um..no....see my above few lines to see how I feel about that. With that said...where would you rather play as a player? Where would you rather attend as a fan? Clear sky night game but temps below zero and wind chills -20 or worse OR..... Afternoon game...Temps in the mid 20's but wind gust 40-50 (MPH) and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow before and during the game?

I'm good with Skinner. Is he physical? Not laying out hits on the ice, no. Does he play well in his own end? He doesn't play POORLY in his own end....but that may be because he tries to spend as little time there as possible. I have watched replays of goals allowed where he actually STOPS at the blue line and doesn't even enter the defensive zone. But...he is a consistent goal scorer. Don't expect him to carry the team, don't expect him to be a guy that wills the team to victory though his overall game, and I'm good with him for his offensive production.

I agree he stablized that Cozens line. Cozens I think has played awful most of the year, but he looks better (not great, but much better) back on that line. I'm just saying the 5 wins are more a result of Tage scoring and getting decent goaltending rather than Quinn himself. I do understand that inserting him into the lineup has an impact beyond just himself though.

Yes, You know what else happened since Quinn came back? Comrie hasn't played. Tage Thompson has scored 7 goals in 9 of those games. I'm not putting Quinn's play down, but those 2 other things might be a much greater impact on the Sabres playing slightly better over the last 10 games than Quinn in the lineup himself.

UPL and Levi have the goalie of record in 36 games, and have totaled 38 points. Those 2 combined are playing at nearly an 87 point pace. Not playoff pace, not as good as last year...but it looks a bit better when you take out Comrie's 1 win and 5 losses.

Ok, looking to see where the weak spots were on the goals allowed that could use some improvement last night: 1st goal allowed: Johnson starts it on the far boards with a kinda-whiff on a clearing attempt (not sure it was a clearing attempt or a pass up to Thompson on the boards). Thompson loses the battle for the puck when it gets there but he was in the worse position. Credit to Thompson though, as soon a the puck goes across the ice, he IMMEDIATLY moves to the center of the ice...stays in the slot and doesn't vacate that area (Good play by Thompson without the puck, Cozens, please take notes!) Now a bad play by Tuch (positionally). All 3 Sabres forwards are on the far side where the puck WAS, no one is where the puck is GOING (Tuch needs to be closer to the near boards, its his side). Because Tuch isn't there, the Ottawa winger easily picks up the puck and has a ton of time to look around. Mitts eventually comes in and steals the puck, but follows it with a VERY weak clearing attempt right onto the stick of the goal scorer. I want that save anyway, but he was heavily screened. If anyone wants to be enraged I am attaching a screenshot. LOOK at the screen on UPL. The Ottawa guy is almost standing on top of him and the Sabres D let him there for almost a full 5 seconds before they even tried to engage him. I personally put down the forward play in their own zone and give a BIG pass to the Sabres D-men, I think the D-men are better than we give credit to, but letting that guy stand there for at least 5 seconds (watch the replay, please do) has zero excuse. 2nd goal allowed: Some bad luck, puck pinballs around...I don't see anyone drastically out of place on this one. 3rd goal allowed: Samuelssons with a week clearing attempt, Cozens with a giveway in the slot in the D-zone. 2 bad plays by them, not much else here (Dahlin maybe a BIT too aggressive, but it wasn't reckless on his part)

He's playing well, but 2 things: 1. Project that over 82 games and that is a 90 point pace. BETTER, but not like they are even playing at a pace that would get them sniffing a playoff spot. 2. If he is that valuable to the team, all the much harder it would be to replace him, and the harder of a deal/move that would have been needed to have been made.

Great. On a team that is having trouble scoring goals... Skinner is: -Team leader in goals by a wide margin. -Only player on the team on pace for over 30 goals. -Last year you had your top 5 goal scorers account for about 60% of the teams goals. 4 of the 5 are WAY down in production. Skinner is the only one this year that isn't. If this team isn't winning, the only entertainment I get is watching goals. Skinner is (was) the only consistent source of goals on this team.

I agree. I posted this elsewhere, but here are the factors I think are against him right now. -25 minutes of ice time per game, some games 28-29 minutes AND he is playing behind what is likely a much worse group of forwards in terms of defending in their own end than any other star Defensemen. Basically, He is being worn downy physically AND mentally by the minutes and the quality of help he is getting. -Frustration, he has the big contract, viewed by many as the teams best player, he is trying to do too much. The goal he was on the ice for the other night, he was WAY too aggressive trying to make a play in the neutral zone...didn't get there in time, the puck went into the Sabres zone and a goal was scored. He is frustrated by the teams failures AND he is trying to do too much and that is causing other problems.

Below average coach without Brady, has a record that would get him fired after a couple years (and it did twice with 2 different teams) when he didn't have Brady. You have seen Brady have just as much success with BB as he did in Tampa....Peyton Manning carried a few coaches to very good records and a lot of wins. Tomlin has had winning seasons with basically junk at QB. But Bellichick? Without Brady, as a head coach, he's pretty bad. With Brady, Well, history shows us that almost any coach can take a HOF QB And win games. I'm impressed with him as a D-coordinator, but not only do I think he's not a good head coach, I think he is and was pretty bad. Again, he did what he should have done with a HOF QB (the guy that without him won a SB 50% of the time with different coach), and he showed very little ability to elevate a team without a HOF QB to accomplish much of anything.