DarthEbriate

Looks like Johnson gets to play top-pairing minutes rather than worry about rotating in with injuries. Good. Get the roles defined as soon as they're known.

Getting outshot by the AHL Jackets 20-7 thus far, eh? Check that, 20-8. Krebs with the 8th. It's about quality, not quantity, I guess.

Was the cross check called on the initial hit or offscreen during some reprisals? At any rate, there will likely be a 4th line/13th forward vacancy next year if he doesn’t need too much AHL seasoning.

If Cozens can settle down and rely on Quinn and Benson, (keep it simple and do your job), and Ruff can get Cozens to slowly unlock his potential… that’s a line right there. And now that the Sabres have addressed the bottom 6, they can be deployed in advantageous situations for the first half of the season.

This is a good spot for this note. Remember the 2022-23 season, how it started at home with an empty barn and quiet player intros. Girgs and Okposo started the game and on their opening shift they both rattled the boards twice. Veteran grinders got the crowd going and set the tone for the game (and for a really fun regular season). This 4th line should also start the home opener.

Quinn, Benson, then JJP. Using the only stat that matters: plus/minus.

One goal/minute ought to do it.

Unrelated, but I used a random number generator to pick the pole positions for a bunch of '80s-era style Lego race cars (including the ones in this year's avatar photo). In the next-to-last row, the Sabres black and red car, alongside a red/white car that could be described as a '90s Sabres home jersey scheme, but much heavier in white so it's more an Ottawa Sens whites look. But in the last row, the Sabres white and blue car. The final car in the field... the Minnesota Vikings car. Buffalo and the Vikings. I'm sure it doesn't mean anything....

And herein lies the rub for me. If Quinn ends up paired with TNT, I think that could maximize Thompson's goal-scoring. But if Benson-Cozens-Quinn gels and stays together, I'm guessing that will soon be what we consider our best line. (Quinn's line is going to become our top line, health permitting.)

Maybe. But we may also be daring the opposition to put out a heavy 3rd/4th line for them to feast upon. Their average draft position is #9.3333, and you could argue that each and every one of them should have been drafted higher.

I need to start doing this every time I make a Star Wars reference. Gonna get ripped this season.

Over the next 3 seasons: Benson. I think by the end of this season, the line we're all going to want on the ice is Benson-Cozens-Quinn. I think next season, the 5-on-5 time on ice will reflect that. By the season after that, I think they'll prove they can work together or apart and don't fold up shop in the playoffs, either. Long term, I think Benson will be a top-18 (surpassing Eichel) in Sabres career scoring and stays ahead of Kulich for the duration of their Sabres careers.

Thinking back, he'd had a really good breakout 38-goal season, so teams knew he was dangerous. But then there were a couple big games early in 2022-23 where we started having these "is Tage MVP-vote-worthy good?" discussions. Time for some game log research.... The big games were 3-3-6 vs. DET and 5-1-6 vs. CBJ. So those two teams had ample reasons afterward to key on him. How's he done since? CBJ 2022 5-1 W 1-0 L 2023 1-0 L 0-1 W 0-0 W DET 2022 3-3 W 0-1 W 0-0 W 1-1 W 2023 0-1 L 0-2 W 1-0 L 1-0 L Since the explosion: DET 8 points in 7 games; CBJ 4 points in 4 games. That's top-line production against non-playoff teams, which is good, and also expected. But they haven't let him take over a scoresheet since.

The other thing I look at is, how does the player do when the other team really, really cares? What happens when you go into the game and the opponent puts all their attention on taking away your game? What happens when you get matched against a Bergeron, a Barkov, or some checking 2C punk like a Peca or Kesler or Kadri? When teams really key on Thompson and try to take away his space, the eye test has said he goes a little silent. That's also been on Skinner and Tuch and the rest of the Sabres. But top-flight centers don't go silent --- they may be held off the score sheet by a great defensive effort and goalie, but they don't go quietly. TNT has 6 points in 23 games against Boston, 9 points in 15 games against Florida. Combined -20. Again, this is reflective of the team as well, and he wasn't 1C in all those games, but it's...not good.

For these top-X lists, I always go back to the premise: It's game 7. The lineups are identical. There are no futures, no contract, age, health or "will he hold up through the season" considerations. One game, all three zones. You've got JJP-TNT-Tuch vs. JJP-McDavid-Tuch. Who are you taking? Then, proceed down the list of centers you'd take. O-zone faceoff, D-zone faceoff, up one in the 3rd, down one with under 60 seconds to go. Thompson is definitely a top-10 shooting center (Bedard will surpass him soon and push him down one spot.) But playmaker? Vision? Tenacity? Winning a key faceoff? Defensively? Being the driving force on a powerplay as opposed to just a stationary sniper? Thompson is not top-15 in those categories.

What did we all say the last time we asked ourselves this question? For historical reference:

It's right to have concern. This team, heck, this franchise, needs a good start to the season. If nothing else, having Dahlin available to practice in Ruff's system and style, get up to game speed before the season, etc., is important.

But Detroit has a split squad approach because they’re not going overseas. Team Delvecchio is missing Compher, Kane, etc.

But he’s already played 436 games and two seasons at an extremely high level. He’s like your best and favorite toy you’ve had for years. Then your cousin comes over to play on the weekend and breaks it instantly. Like when Jamie cracked my prized Louisville Slugger on one swing.

If it does end up being an extended injury, then it’ll be great for Power to get PP points and make his contract look appropriate. And Byram will get the chance to earn a higher AAV.

After missing the playoffs by 1 point... with a coach who had no faith in VO and missing Quinn for half the season -- there was no move for a Quinn replacement (a Zucker, a Tarasenko, etc.). There was no move to improve the 4th line. There was no move to improve on Comrie. All things that occurred this past offseason, a year late. No deals that could've made them better then? No deals that could've strengthened the team and its depth? GM Sheevyn rose to power and is going to protect the secrets of the EEE.

Fairburn, Fairburn. My bad, I misread my bylines. Thanks for catching. Edited.

First bolded: Yup. Those contracts were all about opportunity. Mittelstadt and Thompson both got 1C [Edit: Mitts was the opening day center until Gallagher hacked his wrist apart; then TNT went off all year, and Mitts got 1C time whenever TNT was out] and top 6 time to get their points on the cheaper "prove it" contracts. Barring catastrophic injuries, Krebs isn't going to get that opportunity to get stack points. And he lacks an NHL-level shot. Mitts doesn't use his often enough, but his wrist shot is very underrated. TNT has his cannon. Krebs is a pass-only threat until he proves otherwise. (Yes, he can improve his shot, as Dahlin and others have.) Second bolded: I think exactly where he practiced today. This year, he's battling for bottom 6 ice time; next season, there could be vacancies for Zucker, Greenway, and Aube-Kubel. Because of the relationship to Eichel/Tuch.... My screenplay-adjacent suspicion remains that Krebs = Wedge, the unsung hero of the Rebellion. Or he's Biggs.... but then, where's the mustache?

Per Fairburn (Atlantic), Kulich was rotating into the top 6 (listing Benson specifically). Krebs was rotating into the 3rd and 4th lines.

We're back to good ol' Ruff injury reports: Is he even injured? Where? It's body-related.