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Everything posted by DarthEbriate
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The Sabres were up by 2 and going to the powerplay as a result of the major penalty. So the plans to retaliate were made. Then, the Sabres gave up a shorthanded goal during the major, so they were only up by 1. Gilbert can't play protecting a mere 1-goal lead or risk going on the PK. FWIW, the Sabres did hang on to win 4-3. (Nevermind that the season was already over barring some 8-game winning streak.) Scott saying that Lindy would have wanted blood after the Tage hit hasn't been watching Ruff behind the bench the last few years. Young Ruff is in the past.
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Put Norris, Greenway, and Muel on LTIR to conveniently return in April and you can go add a Draisaitl-sized contract. Just sayin'. But yes, you'd probably have to be operating without the owner being happy for any additional yacht or construction payments. (And you'd have to be good enough to make the playoffs with just adding Draisaitl and subtracting those 3.)
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9 NHL games or fewer and the contract slides. If they dress for game 10, the ELC year counts. While they're still 18 or 19 years old.
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
It's sad, because we all like him and he has been a good coach (when Hasek/Miller). But current-day Ruff was not getting rehired anywhere else in the league. Pegula got him hired as the sole interviewee, competing against the only other option: Appert. The good news is that Ruff's previous two overachieving -- playoff guaranteed rosters -- were in his third season as coach (109-point season with Dallas; 112-point season with NJ). The bad news is that Ruff is only under contract for two seasons here. But I'm sure Appert will do fine next season. -
The NCAA distinction is important because now his access to money is Rochester. I definitely think we're seeing: 25 Seattle -> 26 Rochester -> 27 Buffalo (definitely more than just a 2-game look), and then one more season (2028-29) remaining before RFA.
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
It's a seemingly ongoing thing: the GM/front office is only capable of "fixing" or at least focusing on one thing at a time rather than a complete holistic approach. This comes from the top and Darth Pegula the Wise's flavor of the month approach: Leino was great in one playoff series against us: get him! Mittelstadt was great at the World Juniors for US: jump him up the board! Taylor Hall is going to make us contenders: get him! Fix the 4th line! We have Dahlin/Power/Muel all locked up long-term -- get all the RHDs! Was Mrtka the best player available? He very well could be. Time will tell. Did the pick fill an organizational need? No, it added a potentially great player to an organizational surplus. The future might very well be "Add scoring forwards!" but that is the most expensive to attain unless it's a sell-off-Skinner scenario. -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
From upthread discussion: scoring less is fine if they also give up fewer goals. All acquisitions this offseason should combine to be at least a little better in the Goals Against department. How much better do they need to be? Last season, if you were under 240 GA, you were in the playoffs (Calgary at 236 was out, and massive outlier Montreal at 261 was only team over 240 to make it). The last 3 seasons, the Sabres have given up 2710, 2402, and 2368 shot against. They're improving! But the goaltending has been at best middle of the pack (16th) in team save percentage (.899% in 2023-24 when UPL was great the 2nd half). The team % I'm using includes ENG. So, if the Sabres goaltending is at .900 (better than ever recently), they need to reduce their SA to 2288 to get down to 240 goals allowed. That's carving an additional shot per game off what they allowed last year. That's doable -- particularly if Byram-Dahlin is a tandem for another 500 minutes of ice time because they're the top pair from game 1. But -- boxing out, tying up folks, forcing offside by standing up at the blue line, and occasionally wrecking someone for an easy puck win by your teammate -- would go a long way toward reducing high danger shots. Tick that save percentage up, and sub-240 GA is also realistic. Has any of our goalies ever had a great save %? UPL did a .917 in a 9-game stint in 2020-21. His .910 season isn't great and that was even with him playing fantastic for 3 straight months. Possess the puck, reduce shots against (by over 100 to be safe), and reduce high danger chances against. Can this revised roster do that? -
There is no conflict.
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Welll.... here we go. Tonight, 15 minutes down the road where the T-Birds (Mrtka) play:
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Uncle Owen and Aunt Beru. I can make that work in some manner in the future.
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The good news is... (I think) he can still qualify for two contract slide years (one for sure). The bad news is... Kesselring is a RFA next summer and Timmins could be as well and our GM will still be 'Ol No-Blockers.
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There will always be someone (an RFA or one year until RFA) that Adams claims to have loved forever. If he isn't extended beforehand, we'll see what happens when Benson becomes an RFA next summer (after, probably, an entire season of LW1 and PP1 time).
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An injury to Power or Dahlin would give him ample opportunity. The sub- $7M contract is a good value for another team looking to acquire a potential PP D-man. There are still trade possibilities before the end of the contract. If traded next summer, the return won't be as great on a one-year rental to UFA -- think Pu-Skinner. And the Pegulas wouldn't consider retention, so you have to take salary back... so it's limiting what KA can even do. I don't know that Kesselring should be considered elite potential. He's a 6th round pick who made it to the 3rd pair by and got increased playing time because of injuries. He had good metrics on a team that had good metrics overall but lacked top-end scoring to compete with a very tough division. That's what we know thus far. Good night, Byram. Good work, sleep well. I'll most likely trade you at the deadline. Overall: The team is better with Byram on the roster than losing him to a 1st/2nd/3rd offer sheet to some perennial playoff team. So... there's that.
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It has been noted (weeks ago) on this board JJP had zero leverage, too. All you have to do is have your agent tell Adams you want out.
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Jackikin Eichwalker did not stay loyal to the Sabres, however. He was seduced by the desire for victory, the Cup Side. -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Of note through all this... Ruff called out TNT and Cozens as centers who weren't putting in the effort to play center last season. TNT got moved to wing. Cozens just continued playing center (I have a note that he started one game 11/1 vs. NYI on the wing before immediately going back to center). So JJP wasn't alone as a top 6 key scoring forward who wasn't playing his defensive role up to expectations. The difference between them all is JJP had a choice - a smallish choice, but a choice nonetheless. TNT is under contract with reasonable big money, Cozens is already traded (also under big money). As an RFA, JJP's rights were owned for a couple more seasons, but he was not under contract this summer. He used that little leverage to say adios to this inept franchise. If you were a player -- what would you do? Would you want to sign for 1 year to play it out all over again next summer, 2 years to UFA, or sign here long term? With this GM/Owner forever linked? Why? You're in the NHL -- you can play hockey and make (likely) more money elsewhere on a team without an internal cap, or with lower taxes and more palms if that's your thing. Or go be on a team trying to win. (Or a team trying to tank, if that's your thing. Or pull a Skinner and go to the Sharks for sunshine and no playoff expectations.) Good... gooooood... your Sabreing has made you powerful! -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
And it went back to the root problem of never getting a legitimate top-4 veteran RHD to pair with Power when he was in his first season. Jokiharju is a fair complementary D-man to the right partner. Everyone is good with Dahlin, and he was good with Zadorov, but he is not the right fit for Power. And he certainly wasn't a grizzled tough veteran and mentor when he skated predominantly with Power in 2 of their first 3 seasons together. Joker was a fantastic trade win and remains a good player, but he's not the guy to lead your #1 overall pick to the fullest of his potential. The question remains... are Kesselring (age 25, 156 GP) or Timmins (age 26, 159 GP) any more qualified now than Jokiharju ever was (now age 26, 407 GP)? -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Four hundred! We could almost buy our own (champion)ship with that! -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
The easy way to read it is that the Sabres are at least 113% better. However, for that left-hand column I'm wondering if it's solely based on the 2024-25 Sabres or how much an impact being on last year's defensively-inept Sabres team had on those numbers. For example, if Norris had played between JJP and Quinn for 30 games (like Cozens did), would Norris' number be 12%? -
Mice, driving uninsured, probably not even wearing pants.
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He set the record for games played without a playoff appearance. Now, he's got to start a new streak. Can't be doing that on a team with McDavid and Draisaitl.
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The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
I thought the new scoreboard that doesn't show shot totals was how they win. -
The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?
DarthEbriate replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Reimer v. Lyon. Reimer is in the backup phase of his career and Lyon has never been in the 1A phase of his career. From 2020-2025, Reimer is 3.02 GAA and .903 % while Lyon is 2.98 and .903 %. They're a push. UPL is likely to still be an inconsistent goalie. Levi should start in the AHL but will likely force his way up again. If Lyon is playing slightly better than Luukkonen, can Ruff be smart and play the veteran a bit more -- while not burning out either? Reimer could easily have played more games last season overall, but then at the end was ridden into the dirt. Trust and balance: can Ruff find them? Can this goalie tandem provide both? Right now, on paper, I'd say goaltending is a push. Kesselring will fight and defend teammates: that's good. But, he's only ever been top-4 in a limited capacity because of injuries. Clifton would battle, but was small and a 6/7. Timmins is a 3rd pairing guy. Both new guys are bigger and stronger than Joker, which is good, but I'm not yet sure either is a better all-around player than Jokiharju was (remember, he went to Boston and played great with Zadorov in top-pair minutes and he helped Power look fine-for-a-newbie in 2 previous seasons). The d-corps may come down to coaching and strategy (yikes!), quickly gelling and finding consistency with new partners, and Dahlin's health. Bryson is currently the #7 which means he'll play about 40 games when he's not just happy to be in the press box. The coach needs to play Byram-Dahlin from the get-go (provided one is still on the roster) and try to get the most out of them while not relying on them for everything and killing them by midseason. On paper, now, the D is a little bit better -- with potential to be greatly improved. At forward, by line: Benson (at this age 20) is a downgrade from JJP overall. (For comparison, at 20, JJP got a 2-game looksee and was already physically big/mature. He's always had the build.) However, Benson's ceiling is much higher because of his defensive chops and his playmaking ability. At age 20, he probably still should only be counted on for a high of 50 points (which is very good! for a 20 year-old). Slafkovsky had 51 last year with loads of PP time and top-6 ice. Kulich should be better than Kulich (or he'll have a sophomore slump). TNT = TNT and should continue to carry the scoring load. Quinn is a slight upgrade from Benson (offensively -- he should easily score more goals than Benson did last season), but much worse defensively. Hopefully, that is countered by his new linemates... Norris should be a step up from Cozens in production and drastically improved defensively. Tuch = Tuch in a contract year, but probably a slight bit down in the actual goal-scoring department. 30-potential instead of pushing for 40. Zucker = Zucker, but probably not quite as many goals as last year. Depends on PP time. McLeod = due for regression, until Norris gets injured. Still, he's really solid and can play up the lineup and will be PK1. Doan = Should be able to beat out, and be an upgrade to, Greenway because of his forechecking and possession metrics. With Zucker/McLeod he'd be a very good 3rd line contributor. Offensively, he's not as good as Quinn and slightly better than Greenway -- the two 3rd liners he'd be replacing. Overall, he's a push in terms of averaged out scoring production and also the average of the prior players' extremes defensively. Malenstyn = Malenstyn = fine for a 4th line Krebs = Krebs Greenway is a massive upgrade than last year's version of Lafferty. Penalty killing, grinding in corners, and the occasional brawn. He provides more to the team than we give credit. That said... he's good for 40 games given his shoulder(s), so... Danforth is also a massive upgrade over last year's version of Lafferty. The fourth line is overpaid, but will be solid. Overall, the forwards should be a bit better at a 200' game -- until Norris and Greenway are both injured. Then, it will open up opportunities to those who can take advantage, but it could also swiftly sink the season, especially if other teams are playing their starting goalies and not coasting to season's end already. Finally, how has the PP strategy improved this offseason? On paper, the Sabres should be 4-8 points better in the standings -- so still about 4-8 points short of the playoffs depending on the pace while teams tank for McKenna. And I hope they have a Devils-like Ruff-led 112-point breakout season. That'd be excellent. Then they should still fire Adams into the nearest asteroid field.