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Everything posted by DarthEbriate
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Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
DarthEbriate replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
This is true. They have had a couple breaks this season that they've come back a bit sluggish from, particularly TNT, and it's taken them a few games to get back up to speed. That said, I still want them to go on a bender the 2nd half of March, coupled with losses by competitors so that in April the Sabres can work in Levi (and Portillo) and Johnson while still coasting into the playoffs. Best of all worlds. -
It's a Trade Deadline Day sale in July February!
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Now watch, ARZ, or whomever is the third-party somehow finagled a 3rd from NYR and a 5th from CHI just to make it happen.
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At this point, the East is just telling the West, "All your players are now... ours."
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A 2nd (or 1st) and 4th with someone retaining salary? Surely some other additions will be announced? Seems... far less than for Jeannot got, even though Jeannot is a mid-to-bottom 6 RFA (and only 2 years from UFA, he's arbitration eligible and could even sign a tender at a level TB couldn't afford but would still be way less than recouping what they gave up for him in draft compensation). Lots of expiring contracts on bad teams this year.
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Movies / TV Shows - I Have Watched / Plan To Watch
DarthEbriate replied to Sabres Fan in NS's topic in The Aud Club
Just remember (when browsing) that The Last of Us is not This is Us. -
GM Sheevyn carries a dual-bladed red lightsaber(re).
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Sabres trade for Defenseman Riley Stillman in exchange for Josh Bloom
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Or until Marchand slashes Dahlin in a scrum after the Bruins have taken a 1-0 lead in game one of the EQF. Stillman responds with a facewash and a fight ensues, Marchand is dusted into next week, and the Sabres rally for a game win and complete control of the series end-to-end. -
McCabe. O'Reilly. Wayne Simmonds last season. ... they're totally going to add Sheary and Scandella at the deadline.
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Sabres trade for Defenseman Riley Stillman in exchange for Josh Bloom
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
I hope Stillman is excellent in his role. My concerns are that he causes several shifts a game to get hemmed in their zone and that he was chased from the Canucks lineup by ex-Sabre Christian Wolanin. I mean... Jost has proven my doubts wrong thus far. -
Sabres trade for Defenseman Riley Stillman in exchange for Josh Bloom
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Pu is rocking 20 points in 41 games for the Kunlun Red Star this season. They're China's KHL expansion team so that China could get a team together for the Beijing Olympics. They're Bantha poodoo (translates as "fodder") for the rest of the KHL. -
Sabres trade for Defenseman Riley Stillman in exchange for Josh Bloom
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
On the other hand, he is now ranked 7th on the Sabres in hits this season in only 32 games played. He also has 3 fights this season... so Krebs and Cozens don't have to be the team's enforcers. That's... good? Me either, other than he seems to score a lot of short-handed goals. -
Ottawa hosts Detroit tonight (right now) and again tomorrow. They could end the series tied in points and games played (probably best for Buffalo) or Detroit could leave Ontario up by 8 points and the Sens fully cooked in time for the deadline. Should be fun hockey. No overtime, please!
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Sabres trade for Defenseman Riley Stillman in exchange for Josh Bloom
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
But would you trade Bloom for Fitz? More like a 6th or 7th for Fitz. Jost was free. -
Sabres trade for Defenseman Riley Stillman in exchange for Josh Bloom
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
No, they won't all make it to the Sabres, but Bloom could've been part of a powerhouse Rochester squad and then you use him as a sweetener for a better player than Stillman. Some 2nd + Bloom for a true playoff vet rental guy in 2 years, for example. As to Bryson: I don't think he makes it to Rochester, even at $1.8M next season. You waive him and some playoff contender out there could use a #7/8. I'm thinking the Wild. They've got an emergency loan D right now that Bryson would immediately replace in the lineup. Then, he could replace a washed-up Goligoski when Brodin gets back. They may be in cap hell next year but they've got 10M in space this season and could always dump Bryson for a 6th over the summer or waive him during camp when his cap hit would be likely to sneak him through. -
Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
DarthEbriate replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
It does, but more slowly. It also, by design, is only looking at players. I'd have to research the others to see how much consideration is taken for coaching or even how they'd calculate that if it wasn't something consistently established like a Torts-defensive-shell. If you want something super-reactive, there are always power rankings. The alternate side of it is this: if the Sabres inexplicably miss the playoffs in 2027 after a rash of injuries and a key UFA departure, a bunch of reactive folks will predict that they're done. The Athletic's more stable model will look back at 2025 and 2026 and correctly say: nope, this team is still a top-notch Cup-contender in 2028. -
Sabres trade for Defenseman Riley Stillman in exchange for Josh Bloom
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
I've got a bad feeling about this. For Bloom -- that's a guy you sign and get to Rochester and see what he's got as a solid bottom-six guy. If he burns it up but is blocked by a bunch of 1st round picks on the big squad, then move him in a couple years. This is... odd. -
Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?
DarthEbriate replied to inkman's topic in The Aud Club
It's not crap; it's working as designed. However, their model all about regression and is slower to react to breakout players. https://theathletic.com/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/ The Athletic's model takes the player's past 3 seasons into account. It's really accurate if you're looking at the Penguins. You've got Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and a goalie of some sort and you're in the playoffs every year. If they're all trending downward, the model will begin to capture that and say, "This window is shut." Or, if say: Giroux and DeBrincat who have previous years of awesomeness join the Sens this model says "Two near-point-per-game players added to the lineup... hell yes!" The Sabres don't get that benefit. They get 1/2 season of top-level Tuch, one season of Skinner, one season of TNT-version Thompson. They get points, but only 1/2 season of post-2022 ASG defense Dahlin. They don't get data on JJP or Quinn or Power. And they get their goaltending: Comrie would be the highest rated the past three seasons. They're also still carrying 1.5 seasons of the Krueger effect on almost everyone. Next year, look for The Athletic's rating of the Sabres to jump substantially, and then the year afterward -- once Krueger Effect is gone and we've got 3 seasons of TNT, no "healthy scratch Skinner", and Norris-Dahlin... that's when the Sabres will be atop the world with that model. And --- it sort of makes sense. The NHL is slow-changing in terms of playoff participants each season, so the 3-year aggregate sort of works. Compare that with an NFL where 1/3 of the playoff teams switch from season to season -- there, you're probably just looking at QB play as the safest guess for who makes the playoffs. What will be curious is how much the model could be adjusted this next summer in terms of its weighting because of teams like the Sabres/Devils who get big contributions from kids without much 3-year history. -
Sabres sign Michael Houser. He has cleared Waivers
DarthEbriate replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
<retracts left hand from other mouse> I... what now? -
This. If he flat out tells them he's not coming back during this summer --- they almost have to trade him over the summer for a boatload. Otherwise, even as a UFA, the only way they trade him is if they're clearly out of it come the 2024 trade deadline.