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Hoss

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Posts posted by Hoss

  1. Luke Adam just scored 20 seconds into the Amerks game. 10th of the year.

     

    The unfortunate thing is that all the Amerks are on the Sabres. No one really worth watching outside of McNabb and maybe Kaleta.

     

    Adam is still worth keeping an eye on. Might be another Brennen who always tears up the AHL but struggles in the NHL, but I'm willing to bet he gets another shot. Ruhwedel, Hackett, Armia soon, Catenacci.

     

    There are some guys who will probably eventually be injury call-ups, especially if they tear the team down and leave the wounds open for a year or so. Guys like Sundher and Schaller.

     

     

    Then you still have Sulzer, Porter and Ellis down there.

  2. And Pegula is implying right now that the plan probably is to target McDavid. "You want to see Crosby, you have to get him through the draft...".

     

    I swear I'm not Terry Pegula.

     

    Vogl is the best of the TBN guys.

     

    No doubt.

     

    For everyone who thinks the FNC is going to be a party for the rest of the season, remember: This roster still sucks. It's going to take a while. But maybe--just maybe--we can get a Canadiens-style rebuild now.

     

    Definitely. I see people saying they're excited to watch games, but this has almost nothing to do with what's on the ice. The team HAS been showing some effort the last week or so, so they aren't going to get THAT much better even if Nolan gets them trying. The best plan is still to be patient and wait out this losing.

  3. Well, that plus the pedestrian hockey insights and utter lack of any inside info.

     

     

    I predict the new GM will be on board within a week.

     

    I haven't said this since game 5 or so, but I am officially psyched to watch the next Sabres game.

     

    The odds are against Nolan being the answer long-term, but I will say this: he is a maniac. He will get the team to play hard and passionately.

     

    All of this. TBN is right down the road from the teams they cover and they can't get the inside scoop that the national guys have. They rarely offer anything of substance. And their opinions are whack.

     

    And yea, I also don't think that Nolan will be here for very long, but he won't give in easily unless he knows that it's the plan.

     

    I see a GM here within a week or two. I have to assume they've already contact some guys to see if they're interested.

  4. Let's go back for a second here.

     

    There was a conversation about getting the #1 overall pick, and specifically McDavid next year.

     

    Mr. Stebb himself said:

     

     

     

    To which shrader correctly responded:

     

     

     

    This response was correct because under the prior system, teams #6-14 in the lottery -- i.e. 64.3% of the lottery participants -- weren't eligible to win the #1 pick -- so Stebb's statement that "history suggests..." was neither here nor there.

     

    Stebb, presumably flummoxed but not wanting to admit defeat, responded with:

     

     

     

    ...which was also neither here nor there.

     

    We then migrated to a discussion of what "winning the lottery" really means -- which doesn't jibe with the prior discussion about getting McDavid.

     

     

     

    This would be nice but I ain't holding my breath.

     

    I'm not sure what your obsession is here.

     

    And I already admitted I was wrong. I was no longer claiming that my original point was correct. I was just furthering the other poster's point after I found that part of my "research" interesting.

  5.  

     

    Again you are proving my point instead of yours. History (I have no reason not to trust your numbers) shows that the bottom two teams have won the lottery 44.4% of the time. It's actually impressive how close that is to the actual 43.8% chance the bottom two have of winning the lottery. That's hardly heavily weighted towards the bottom two teams as you stated earlier:

     

     

     

     

    Just admit you made a couple BS statements earlier and let the thread move back on topic.

     

    I did admit I was wrong. I was proving your point. I was just providing some statistics.

  6. There is a 56.2% chance that someone outside of the top two will win the lottery. That's hardly heavily weighted towards those top two. Yes, individually they have much better odds than any other specific team, but if I'm betting, I'm choosing the field.

     

    If we're arguing details here, the odds of "winning the lottery" haven't changed at all. The odds have always been the same. The rules about how far you can move up have changed, though.

     

    EDIT: Since freeman didn't understand what I said, I'll make it more clear: The odds of winning the lottery are the same, but what you "win" when you win the lottery is different. Before, winning the lottery entailed moving up four draft spots at most. Now, it means that you win the number one overall selection no matter where you started.

     

    Since the current lottery winning odds system has been in place, a team outside of the top two has won it ten out of 18 times (55.6% which is right in line). So you're right, they definitely don't favor the top two.

     

     

    Individually, the team slated first in the lottery has won it six of the 18 times (33%). The second place team had never won it before 2012, but has won it each of the last two years (two out of 18 is 11%). The third team has won it three times (16.7%). Fourth has won it once (5.6%). Fifth has won it twice (11%). Sixth has never won it. Seventh won it once (5.6%). Eighth has won it twice (11%). No team later than eighth has ever won it.

  7.  

    And to think I actually took the time to talk to you. If you thought I was that much of a dick, why did you bother seeking me out at the Amerks game.

     

    Don't fret. I don't hate you. It takes a special kind of ignorant for me to have legitimate negative (or positive) feelings towards a person I've never met. Especially in a message board.

     

    I think you just misinterpret a handful of things I say.

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