Randall Flagg

I'd probably try and buy (very) low on Pearson. Maybe.

I'm confused about what I'm saying with any certainty. I'm OBJECTING to the claim that there's an approaching-zero chance that we lose the trade, by saying that the chances he's leaving are not approaching-zero, that we can't know that. I'm putting no upper bound on the chances at all and gave no further specifics. The chance that any UFA will leave their team is not extremely low and never is. It might not be high, but it exists in every situation.

Yep, Briere was a legit good NHL top 6 until 33, was a fine player at 34, and then was fairly mediocre to bad as his final 3 seasons played out after that.

Worth pointing out that Jack had 4 goals thru 17 games last year, finished pacing for 31. He has 4 in 16 right now.

NHL defenseman Thomas Chabot is 21 years old, and has 22 points in 16 games in his 2nd season.

Of course, if Zemgus is banged up (I think he got his bell rung yesterday) then I'll remove the "Phil criticism" aspect of my take, while still being skeptical about what's best for Tage and the team from here on out

He makes good hockey plays.

But the chances of Skinner leaving and leaving us with nothing are not extremely low.

He might not be terrible someday though. 15 games is less than 20% of the story of a single season, let alone a career.

He's not really super fast, but he's more than fast enough to not have any problems becoming elite at everything. And the edgework and agility you mention IS top top tier. A guy like Miro Heiskanen has burning straight line speed (so does Guhle) but it's not necessary to being a ridiculously fluid transition and offensive defenseman.

Organizing my thoughts a little better, IMO it's just not how teams work that adding in what would be a good AHL winger might somehow screw things up, especially since Rochester's forwards corps certainly hasn't been perfect and certainly has weak spots. Teams add and lose players all the time and apart from potential initial chemistry-building, there's no reason to expect and assume problems from this. It's sports, and that's what happens in sports. The body of NHL and AHL and sport history suggests that this can't be a reason they keep Tage away from Rochester. It's just not in line with anything I've ever seen or anything they've ever said. I'm sure the Moose were quite troubled by Kyle Connor's frequent visits when he was in a similar limbo - the difference was, whether he was one place or another, he was playing games, which is vital for prospects between 18-22 years old to be doing. It's the single most important thing in development. So while I understand that there's likely benefit to be had in having Tage practice with the big club, there will quickly hit a threshold where this is less beneficial than him playing hockey games every second or third night. And since his performance to date has been "totally overwhelmed" for him, and damaging for the team that's trying their best to take steps forward, it will be hard to convince most Sabres fans that this will continue to be the way to go, especially when it regularly breaks up lines that do well. When Phil changes lines after a win, often to get Tage in, the Sabres have zero wins and six losses, and Tage has continued to put up putrid metrics and dubious play to supply the visual evidence. That gets less and less convincing as being "beneficial" to anybody as time goes on. Sometime soon, he either needs to drive and contribute, or go to the AHL (it didn't hurt Kyle Connor, who in an exact replica of the situation, actually got 20 overwhelmed NHL games before going down and getting 50+ in the AHL, starting the next year in the AHL for a few games, and then exploding and scoring 31 NHL goals). Kyle was playing. Kids that age, at the end of the day, need to be playing. I don't know what is so valuable here that's impossible to get in Rochester, but he's gotten it since mid-September.

Some guy named Tyler Randall? they have a few forwards that don't project to our organizational long-term plans and aren't great. Justin Bailey? How could there NOT be a spot in Rochester for a RW who would likely be one of their best players, who we traded a significant asset for as the main piece of a trade a couple of months ago?

Jack's effectiveness at getting out of board battles and any situation in tight with the puck has gotten orders of magnitude better, in part because of the stick length. It's worth the fact that it'll take him half a season or so to not sometimes mishandle the stick in the open on a rush. And it's not going to meaningfully impact his shot long-term

I remember proposing Aho & Slavin for Risto & Reinhart a year and a half ago and this board murdered me

There really is no reason to have Risto at 26 (and 2 more ES minutes than his own partner) with Dahlin at 16. Giving Dahlin 19 is still "sheltering," and Risto at 23 is better for him and the team.

Let's put the worst player currently up here on the 4th line that is our first 4th line to not get caved in in a decade I know Tage is going to get games once in a while, but he's not good here and needs to be playing games in Rochester.

I get what they're doing with Tage, but real soon I want him playing games, and not playing games in a league where his metrics are bottom of the barrel among all 600 forwards.

Risto has been better than Scandella over the course of the whole season, too. Usage matters

That's where I'm at. I'm all about practicality in matters like this, and the people that need to hear the message most are going to be more turned off by going this route than others, whatever they may be.

His short stick is important to him being better on the boards. It's not why he's hitting goal posts instead of not scoring - he can still shoot just fine (see Calgary). He also paced for about 20 goals through like December last year before turning it on. Stuff like goal paces and shooting percentages need more than 15 games to settle down. Sometimes they don't even settle down throughout the whole season.

Here's last year.

To finish the stat, they are +5 on the PK with 9 shorthanded goals and 4 power play goals allowed through 14 games.

And Jack has been outstanding this year. He's really picked up his two-way play. He's doing the "elevation of linemates" everyone calls for - what did Jeff and Jason have between them in the 5 games before moving to his wing? Maybe 2 goals and 2 points in 10 combined games? His goal totals will start going up as they always do. He's been the best player on the ice for either team in almost every game we've played. And most importantly - he has finally passed Vincent Trocheck. ?? But yeah. He's a leader, he's continuing to grow and mature, he loves when his teammates do good things (the camera that finds him when things happen, whether he's on the ice or not, has been so fun to watch this year) and he just wants to win. The Sabres have finally given him and his teammates a situation where they can expect to win games.

I'd give him Kane's deal. I hope he'd take Kane's deal. I'm not sure he'd take Kane's deal. I'm not sure how much higher in cap hit I'd go than that yet.