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Everything posted by Randall Flagg
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Will the Sabres outscore the Bills this week?
Randall Flagg replied to Eleven's topic in The Aud Club
The first quarter isn't over and the Sabres need 5 goals per game this week to beat the Bills -
Barkley throws some terrifyingly slow footballs
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Nice fake punt after not getting a new textbook roughing the QB call, and getting that flag picked up. (It should have been, but Brady doesn't get that flag picked up)
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How did we score? just turned it on
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Sure it is, especially considering the uptick in scoring even from last year. Would you rather have Ryan Miller as your starter or Michael Leighton from the same era? Agreed otherwise though.
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UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year
Randall Flagg replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
"Jeff Skinner SCOOOOOOORES" ? -
They team-built and "had a different feel" all before last season too. Go read the articles and interviews before we knew we were bad. It was talked about almost as much as it was this year because of the whole regime change. It was the same stuff, but it didn't help, becuase we were built like the worst team in the league and the players found that out (and then one almost died). And I've also posted and talked at length about how important it was that captain Jack was making the rounds during the offseason. So the idea (aided by my poor choice of words at time, for sure) that I inherently don't believe in locker room stuff is probably deserved, but is also incorrect.
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The "fairy dust" is the idea that the team can comeback now that they believe in themselves. Like I said, they're actually BEHIND last year in terms of "tying the game down by two with the goalie pulled." I agree that the team is bonding and believing in themselves like never before, and that it helps them on the ice. That wouldn't have happened with this group or any group had the hockey ability of the team not been improved. We'd have the same bleak feeling right now if these guys realized, like last October, like any team ever (including the multiple-cup-winning core of the almost dynasty LA Kings, completely intact), that they were by default not going to be able to compete this season. So I am acknowledging it. But I disagree with the order as posed.
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UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year
Randall Flagg replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Sam isn't a driving piece but I think he's one of the most important and useful complementary pieces in the league. -
Will the Sabres outscore the Bills this week?
Randall Flagg replied to Eleven's topic in The Aud Club
I'm just always going to guess no because even averaging for the worst PPG ever will always require the Sabres to score at least 3 goals per game. Which is completely doable, but there's just as good of a chance that the bills hit a paltry 14 points as the Sabres going significantly over 3 GPG, and so I'll pick the sport where the worst scoring event is worth twice the amount of an NHL goal -
Without reading the article or thread yet, here's my ranking of what has gotten better for this team and its importance and explanation. 1a.) Goaltending. It isn't great yet, and I'm still worried long term, but the team's save percentage is .913 this season, with league average being .908. Last year league average was .912 and we were at .904. We lost the most one-goal-games in the entire league last year, including so many with ill-timed stinkers when we were actually hanging with teams. Our last place last season was not like our last place seasons before. It turns out one of our two goalies was dealing with severe mental health issues that was not only dragging his play down, but was a massive cloud of worry over the locker room. For a position that needs huge amounts of focus and mental stability, the improvement in that area this season has been immeasurable. There have been stinkers, but not stinkers at the worst times that lose us games. Furthermore, Robin's backup is now helping a different team have the worst goaltending situation in the league. Both positions were upgraded heavily. We've actually allowed MORE scoring chances and shots against this season than last, but we moved up to 16th in goals against per game so far, versus being 3rd-last last season. Since goaltending is the ONLY position where one player's performance can heavily influence the season, this gets the top spot. And you can tell the team plays like they trust their goalie. 1b.) Jack and Jeff magic. We've always needed a partner in crime that can post elite stats with Jack. We always got on Jack for not elevating the likes of Girgensons or Reinhart to that level. But he has raised Jeff's game to a whole new level, and Jeff has done the same for him. We finally have one of those super lines we've been dreaming about for ages. Jack has more assists than any other NHL center (at least as of Friday), Jeff is tied for the league lead in goals. While our depth is getting up to speed with goal scoring (see below) these two have dragged us through games offensively. It wasn't looking too hot at 3-4 before they were moved together, and since then, they've been an NHL-best duo. Last season saw nothing comparable to these two, who have single-handedly won us several games with Pominville. 2.) Depth players. The one thing we knew we could count on being improved were lines 3 and 4. Right now, 10-28-22 is tilting the ice in a huge way for us, posting outstanding metrics which underline how they've been able to snuff out chances in their own end, bring the puck down to the offensive zone, and relentlessly tire out the other team while pinning it there. They've even spat out a few goals themselves. The last time our fourth line WASN'T a shooting gallery was 15-16 with Legwand (Coincidentally, that was by far our best season until this one since before the tank, it was our best overall lineup especially because of them and the Gionta-Larsson-Foligno line which drove a lot of scoring for us). It is HUGE to not have a garbage pile fourth line even though fourth lines don't play a lot of minutes. Instead of coming onto the ice when the other team has the puck and is rushing right back at you, trying to get it back and turn momentum, the Jack line can come on with us already having possession in the O-zone and a tired defense. That's immeasurable and incredibly important. As of last Friday, the scoring still wasn't there, but they've spent the week finding their scoring touch. And they're just playing better hockey even when they aren't scoring. We will need them to continue to score, as we will regress if they can't maintain this past week's play and Jack/Jeff get injured or go cold. The play of the bottom two lines is what has driven all of our underlying metrics up into good and sustainable categories, because of the play themselves and the ripple effects that creates through the lineup. 3.) Three defensemen. The transition play provided by Dahlin and......BOGOSIAN, has been instrumental in this team getting done what they want to offensively. These two both are machines at moving the puck out fluidly from potentially tough situations. Both have been a little jittery, especially recently, in their own zone, but they're staples to our transition and it's unfortunate that Bogosian can't be counted on to be here all season. Show us we're wrong to think that, Bogo. The third is McCabe returning to where his development left off two years ago. He's still probably only a 4, but he's a legit 4, and not a 7 playing as a 4 like last year. This has helped stave off Scandella's regression, and given him time and some shelter to be able to slowly work back from that. Our net defensive play as a unit is a small but firm amount better largely due to Dahlin and Bogosian's surprising transition passes. I have worries about the unit's play as a whole being consistent. And of course, the shots these guys are taking this year are actually going in. They're getting bounces for once. They funneled the point just as much last year, but things are working out this time. 4.) Strength of Schedule. Six games of 17 have come against teams in the top 15, and double that amount have come against teams in the bottom half. This isn't hugely important in the NHL, but it's a large enough discrepancy that it's worth pointing out as helpful and the final and least-important reason for our improvement. Hopefully these guys can handle the big guns they haven't played yet just as well. *A note on culture: Of course, I believe that the improved mood/culture are a function of winning, and not the driving factor. This team's comeback wins aren't because of locker room fairy dust - they tied two games they were down by two with a few minutes left and the goalie pulled TWICE by this point last season already. The issue for last season's teams was all of the hockey in between those moments, highlighted by leveraging two god-awful bottom six lines for half of the game, and using their second-best offensive piece in the most defensive role for a top six player that some stats have ever seen (said player is now pacing for 115 points through 20% of the season). Various coaching decisions like that coupled with the, we'll say "inconsistent" goaltending, combined with league-worst players comprising our entire bottom six were enough to drag the team to the bottom of the standings and the morale with it. It's great that they're feeling better, and it's great that the potential locker room "problem children" like Jack, Sam, and Risto are doing well in that regard, and that will certainly HELP them to show up every night and maintain their play as the season drags on, I would never suggest otherwise, though I'd also suggest that the same thing would have happened to last year's team if they were any good at hockey. Hockey players have fun when the hockey is good, the hockey is good, and as a result, WE get to have fun. Worries going forward: I already mentioned that I'm worried about our defense when injuries hit and potential regressions occur. Our 2C spot is scary too, especially when we get a Jack-incident like yesterday. Jack needs to stay healthy for this team to continue being successful. He and Jeff can succeed despite heavy attention from other teams, which allow everyone below Jack some degree of comfort in shelter, and right now there are only one or two forwards playing in roles ill-suited for them. I think this is the single-most important thing for a hockey team, more-so than league-compared TALENT in those well-suited for roles, which is why I think Nashville's forwards are so good without the highlight names (yes, Forsberg is one). If Jack goes down, with the attention shift teams can then make, and with Jeff and Jason's production outside of Jack, we will be looking at almost an entire forward corps playing roles above where they should, and that scares the crap out of me, and is of course a symptom of being a young and still-improving team. Please, hockey gods, we deserve to continue having fun this year. Keep our captain healthy. I'm also mildly worried that goaltending could fall off a cliff because any team's goaltending can fall off a cliff and neither Linus nor Carter have been established NHL starters before. Potential improvements going forward: Casey gets better every day. Dahlin will get better as time goes on too. Pilut will improve our defense when he gets here. And things are just looking sustainable at the moment. Let's go Buffalo!
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Trade: Fedun to Dallas for 2020 7th RD Pick
Randall Flagg replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
There was a time when Fedun was one of the only D in the organization that could pass the puck out of our zone. That's why, for example, he found himself on the ice when Jack had that sick OT goal in Nashville in 16-17. -
GDT Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres 1:00pm ET 11/10/18
Randall Flagg replied to Doohickie's topic in The Aud Club
Possible. Canucks fans in particular hate Casey because of preseason comparisons to Pettersson, so I wouldn't be surprised if Canuck players took an "lol overrated Casey" angle to their chirping. -
Maybe, but then I'm more interested in having Nylander AND Reinhart than Nylander INSTEAD of Reinhart, even though I think that's an upgrade.
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They'd want a sizable add to that I think
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Trade: Fedun to Dallas for 2020 7th RD Pick
Randall Flagg replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
I think Ho chi sock deserves the benefit of the doubt, as far as emoji-less sarcasm goes. -
Could that cause problems if the puck isn't caught clean, in terms of hand injuries from torquing/having less material to absorb impact?
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GDT Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres 1:00pm ET 11/10/18
Randall Flagg replied to Doohickie's topic in The Aud Club
I honestly can't believe Casey did that when we still needed a save. Gutsy. -
Juicyyy. I want Nylander but there's nothing we could really do that they'd find interesting and we'd find acceptable
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@darksabre @PromoTheRobot, other goalies, whatchoo guys think?
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TRADE: Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to Buffalo per Friedman
Randall Flagg replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
I think this was the whole idea -
GDT Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres 1:00pm ET 11/10/18
Randall Flagg replied to Doohickie's topic in The Aud Club
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GDT Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres 1:00pm ET 11/10/18
Randall Flagg replied to Doohickie's topic in The Aud Club
The Sabres are 8-0-0 when Sam Reinhart records a point. -
Indeed - two games ahead in a game less without the golden boy.
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GDT Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres 1:00pm ET 11/10/18
Randall Flagg replied to Doohickie's topic in The Aud Club
Jeff and I await your apology. I'd like 4 points there, but they've set themselves up to be okay if it doesn't go as hoped. I just want them to play well the Wednesday after those, against Philly, as my SO and I will be in attendance!