LGR4GM

I don't see how Benson will have only 18 assists this year. He'll have more because he won't be stuck with shooting impaired players.

Did the Senate pass this bill? Did the president sign it into law?

Ottinger, Wolf, Gustavsson, Woll, Dostal, were all 26 or younger this past year and were better than UPL. Hell, Soderblom in Chicago has a better sv% than UPL and that team is bad. He's 52 in sv% while being 16th in TOI, every single goalie with higher TOI has better numbers and only 1 has a sub .900 sv%. You gotta get to the 25th goalie in TOI to find someone with a worst sv%. UPL has a lot to prove this year and I do not believe that his awful 2024 season was solely a result of the defensive effort his team gave. Dude was a sieve for large stretches.

Trump being involved or not, you don't pardon a monster like Ghislaine Maxwell. You also don't quietly remove her to a minimum security white collar prison. She's an evil person, truly heinous in what she has done. Special treatment reeks of one thing only, cover up. Conservative friend tried the stunt I expect here, "What if Bill Clinton or Biden were involved in the Epstein files! What then!" Well, you put them in prison and let them rot for the rest of their natural lives because the crime is so disgusting there is no redemption. This isn't a Republican v Democrat issue. It is a common decency and morality issue and sadly it won't play out that way. There's plenty of evidence that the political elite in the US are not beholden to the rule of law.

A lot of stats are contextual so they don't translate directly. That said, if a guy on Buffalo is bad and you swap him for a guy from a different team that's got better stats, hoping the new guy is better makes sense. For example Doan was basically Utahs Benson (high in xgf% and hdcf%) so there's a better chance he's going to be decent defensively in Buffalo than if we got Utah middle of the road guy in the stats. Will he be? Idk. Idk if Benson will breakout. Idk if Thompson will score 40g or Dahlin 60pts. Stats predict but don't guarantee a future outcome. Oh and I'm not comparing Doan to Peterka here. I'm comparing Doan more so to Lafferty.

You vote for a party and then that party gets that percentage of seats. It is how the electoral college should already work. It is insane that if you get 1 more vote than the other guy you get an entire states EC.

I don't agree. +/- only tells us that players even strength goal differential. I think within a team it can tell you some things but I don't think he tells us how successful a player was. If I take Zach Benson and deploy him with Bryson and Samuelsson and he gets UPL being a sieve every night, his +/- is going to be ***** regardless of what he does. In the end, I think ppl will use the stats they like and I can't really argue with that. I use xgf% because it helps be contextualize both offense and defense.

Zach Benson is the best defensive player on the team. But you're right, he imported that himself. It's why I want Wilford gone and why they need to understand drafting better.

Let's say Cozens is a 10% shooter, he's that because he doesn't get to the spots he needs to and takes the shot types he needs to. Now Tage is a 15% guy. So they get to point X on the ice and take a wrist shot. You're arguing that Tage will score more there because the league average is 11% and Tage shoots higher, yes. But you're looking at 4 goals on 100 shots. We also know the areas players score more from. Xgf% would not be the same because of Tage scores more from a spot than so does others, so the average goes up. If Tage prevents shots from those spots it prevents xga. Cozens would have to shoot from the same places meaning he's skilled enough to get there and defend the same shots. It's just not happening. Versus actual goals for. If I put Tage on a team with a real goalie his actual goals against goes down even if his xga stays the same. He's still giving up what xga says. It's also why on ice sv% is important. Idk, I think we just fundamentally disagree about what xgf shows and why it's better statistically than actual goals for and against. Doesn't mean they both can't tell us things.

No xgf wouldn't be the same. You wanna know why? Good shooters get to the good shooting spots. And xgf% is also looking at the defensive side of things. You're suggesting actual goals, which are rarer than shots, measure individual players contributing to winning more but stats says they don't. Sure that noise might even out over a career for actual goals but the funny part to me is so would the xgf. The good shooters get to the good spots to shoot, that's the key.

That's not accurate. Xgf takes into account league average sh%. The problem with actual goals for and against is all the extra noise and all the randomness. There's simply a better sample of shots. We could get into GAR and WAR but that's really complicated and the models vary a ton.

He's actually a good puck carrier but he's too small/weak down low

Yea xgf is a better predictor than +/- Xgf predicts goals based on shot type location and movement. It better shows what a player contributed to. Yea it's why no one serious about this stuff uses 1 stats alone.

It's why you don't use 1 fancy stat to explain a player. It however has better predictive measures than +/- so what you say there is not correct.

Specifically, the Sabres moved away from a bunch of guys with bad xgf%. Whether that's deliberate or just more dart throwing, idk. The other issue is better coached teams have better xgf% overall. So we'll see what happens. Xgf% is impacted by how teams play. Buffalo plays or played a very rush oriented attack with limited ability to cycle, so they don't get a bunch of chances. On the inverse they were mediocre shot getting pucks out so that all comes together.

The crazy part is they brought back Bryson. I think the Sabres looked at some stats and decided to upgrade, I think without better gt, it won't be enough.

But the offense is experienced. Benson, Tuch, Zucker, McLeod, and evert Thompson know how to play on both sides of the puck. Norris could be included too. It's really only Kulich and potentially Tage who aren't stout defensively. The defense on the other hand lacks experience all over. Dahlin is the only defender with 300+ games.

It's primarily goaltending and an inexperienced defense.

I don't know what case you're making. I think Buffalo will end up with a similar goals for or slightly lower this upcoming season. I'm more worried about goals against. I don't think Adams is a good team builder. You're focused on Peterka almost exclusively. I guess we'll see what happens.

Doan

I think if you feed Benson the minutes Peterka got, he'll reproduce that playmaking. I think Buffalo doesn't need to replace the rush offense. They to have another style to play.

Peterka wasn't a good playmaker, he was a good rush creator. I think that's different. You also don't account for any regression in Peterka. His 2nd assist rate matters.

@Hank eye roll away, doesn't change the fact DOGE is and was a scam.

We're also giving all that Peterka playing time to others. You're saying none of them are as good of a playmaker. If you're not saying that outright, you're heavily implying it.

The problem isn't the youth in the top 6 forwards. Zucker, McLeod, both might end up with Top 6 minutes. Benson might be the only one under 200 games. It's the inexperience in the top 6 defenders. They by their very construction will have only 1 guy with 300+ games played.