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Everything posted by dudacek
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And a third: Harman Dayal: Peterka is a speedy, dynamic winger with star potential. He’s an exciting addition to a Utah lineup that features some talented youngsters, but that needed another true difference-maker after ranking 21st in the league in goals this season. Peterka has steadily increased his offensive production every year since entering the NHL. He scored 32 points in 72 games as a rookie, broke out with 28 goals and 50 points as a sophomore in 2023-24, and hit a career-high 68 points this season. He boasts a wicked shot that can beat goalies clean from a distance and is above average at driving controlled zone entries and rush chances. Peterka has scored 2.25 points per 60 at five-on-five over the last two seasons, which ranks 19th among all NHL wingers (minimum 1,000 minutes). He’s especially deadly attacking in transition, which should complement some of the Mammoth’s other dynamic creators, such as Keller and Cooley, stylistically. There are a couple of question marks, though. Peterka has defensive flaws he needs to iron out. Peterka was on the ice for 3.04 expected goals against per 60 and 3.35 actual goals against per 60, which was by far the worst among all Buffalo forwards this past season. It’s worth noting that his defensive numbers weren’t nearly as bad in 2023-24, but that does detract from his overall value. Also, Peterka’s line had the highest five-on-five shooting percentage in the NHL this season (14.3 percent). There’s a good chance that number will regress next season, which would have a deflationary impact on his offensive production. However, Peterka’s high-end talent and skill are still worth betting on, especially since the cost was relatively modest. I believe in Kesselring’s game and top-four potential, but he was going to be stuck behind Sean Durzi and John Marino on the right side of Utah’s blue line. For Buffalo, Kesselring is an exciting fit. He’s underrated because he isn’t a household name and wasn’t a flashy prospect, but I believe in his skill set. The 25-year-old is a 6-foot-5 right-shot defender who skates well, makes poised decisions against heavy forechecking pressure on breakouts and has good puck skills for such a big-bodied player. When Marino and Durzi were injured in the first half, Kesselring took on a high-leverage top-four role and largely excelled in it. Kesselring averaged 19 minutes, 4 seconds, of ice time through the first 48 games of the season. He was winning those matchups, with Utah controlling approximately 52 percent of high-danger chances and outscoring opponents 31-18 during his five-on-five shifts. With that said, Kesselring needs to be more consistent defensively, and there’s still some risk in gambling on a player who has only had half a season’s worth of experience playing in a top-four role. I see Kesslering as a rock-solid No. 4 defenseman, which doesn’t sound particularly exciting, but big-bodied right-shot defenders who can skate well and play top-four minutes are hard to find. Josh Doan is an intriguing project, possessing the size, energy and two-way smarts to develop into an impactful third-line winger. Mammoth grade: A- Sabres grade: B
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Another from the Athletic: James Mirtle: The Mammoth have been rumored to be in on almost everything since the draft combine, and GM Bill Armstrong nabbed the top young player on most trade boards with an aggressive bid here. Utah wins the deal in terms of upside, as Peterka was the fifth-youngest player in the NHL to clear 25 goals and 65 points this season. He’s a strong passer, is excellent one-on-one and is deceptively strong for his 189 pounds. He still has a ways to go defensively, but he turned just 23 in January and he was playing on a struggling team. Peterka was also unhappy in Buffalo and wanted out, which somewhat forced Buffalo’s hand here. If he figures out his two-way game, he’ll be a star alongside Utah’s other up-and-coming young forwards. The Sabres do fill a big need in a right-shot defenseman with size and some defensive acumen, and Kesselring’s rise from sixth-round pick to top-four blueliner has been rather meteoric since coming over from Edmonton. Doan, meanwhile, is only a month younger than Peterka and has yet to stick full-time in the NHL, but he has a solid power-forward/two-way game that should allow him to eventually be a top-six forward in a Shane Doan Lite kind of way. Unless Doan’s development greatly accelerates, however, the return is somewhat underwhelming for Buffalo given Peterka’s offensive output the past two seasons. The Sabres do clear up considerable cap space, given that the two players they added make $2.3 million combined, which should allow them to be more active. Winning a Bowen Byram trade becomes vital now, however. Mammoth grade: A- Sabres grade: C+
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From the Athletic: Shayna Goldman: Peterka’s stock was already high after he scored 28 goals in 2023-24, and then he added another dimension with dangerous passing this season. While he has defensive flaws, the demand was always going to be there for a 23-year-old under cost control for another four seasons — especially now, with few top-six wingers set to hit the free agent market and a lot of teams looking for offensive upgrades. Peterka should be a great fit in a top-six of rising stars in Utah. Between Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and now Peterka, the present and the future are bright for the Mammoth. The price of acquisition checks out, too. Utah had a surplus of defensemen, and that made Kesselring expandable. As sentimental as it is to have a Doan in the organization, the reality is that Peterka is the more ready top-six contributor. Plus, Utah still has a deep pipeline to pull from. The $7.7 million contract extension for Peterka is slightly above his market value. But if he can keep growing offensively and work on his play away from the puck, this deal should age just fine. As for the Sabres, Kesselring is an ideal fit who addresses a major need on the right side of the blue line. He showed the chops to play a top-four role in Utah when the team was dealing with key injuries. His zone-entry defense was solid, along with with his puck-moving ability. That should add more two-way stability to Owen Power’s right and solidify the second pair — if his skill translates in Buffalo. Some of Kesselring’s top comps, Marcus Pettersson and Matt Niskanen, show a promising future in the top-four. But there are dicier paths that he could take, such as those of Kyle Quincey and Carson Soucy. It’s all about whether the Sabres can channel the best of his abilities. Doan is the more surprising player involved in this trade. The 23-year-old looks ready to be an NHL regular and has real middle-six potential. But the real question is whether this is enough of a return for Peterka, especially in this market. This probably would be viewed differently if the Sabres were a team crushed for cap space, looking for under-the-radar additions. Then maybe it would be more of a home run, because together, Doan and Kesselring take up only $2.5 million in cap space next season. The Sabres have cap flexibility and need difference-makers, and management has to be willing to swing for that. Peterka was becoming that, and maybe both Kesselring and Doan will be, too. The on-ice value and potential is there, but if this team wants to actually progress, it has to show more of a willingness to invest in star talent. Mammoth grade: A- Sabres grade: B
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I'm hesitant to look too close at the roster because I think there are a couple more moves coming. But I can see a world where Doan can be a clear 3rd-line upgrade on last year's Jack Quinn in terms of the type of player you want in that role. The question becomes how capable is Quinn of replacing Peterka if given Peterka's role? Probably moot, but even after last year, I don't consider JJ to be a much better player than Jack.
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So many variables and coaching is a huge one. Ive always wanted to see a deep-dive piece on how analytics darlings do after getting traded. How common is the Ryan McLeod path? How many turn out to be Colin Millers? The bold rings true to me. Should any of those things start with your 1st-line winger? Role matters in dressing rooms and talent helps dictate role. How respected and serious was JJ? He’s almost certainly not a leader. Was he a good follower? Are the new guys good foot soldiers? Can they be good corporals? Draft for talent, trade for need is a thing. Is our coach and GM capable of identifying what was lacking and what is needed? They haven’t been so far.
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Meh. The way things seem to go around here, the fancystats will be wrong about Peterka. Or he will grow up and start playing a game I respect because the kid is talented. Trade value seems off to me, and I don’t trust Adams. But the Peterka I watched last year frustrated me in the same way the team did. I don’t blame him, but I don’t see him as the core piece many of you seem to. I’m not going to miss him. Kinda feel about him like I did about Miro Satan. All I can do is hope the new guys are a step toward a team that plays a better brand of hockey and is easier to cheer for.
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These aren't rankings; I haven't studied film. This is my list of the guys most appealing to me as a Sabres fan that could conceivably be there when we pick: Porter Martone: he's no Matthew Tkachuk, and his skating is meh, but the dude is an alpha, skilled and has the type of swagger the Sabres need Brady Martin: people are overrating him because of the intangibles; he's probably a 2nd-liner at best. Don't care, we need what he brings James Hagens: don't see a 1C in the pipeline; he's got the best chance to be one of any player that might slip Jackson Smith: a stallion, big rangy and competitive, with all the tools you need to be a top 4 D Radim Mtrka: he's going to PK and kill plays for a long time. Better tools than people give him credit for. When he matures he's the exact D the current Sabres are missing I like Aitcheson, Carbonneau, Eklund and Bear, but there will be better choices available Not excited by O'Brien or Frondell, but I guess they give value at 9 McQueen scares me; it's less the back and more the sense that he might be Kirby Dach.
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He's got 11 more playoff goals and 28 more playoff games, but Kyrou's no gritty warrior. His career Corsi is fantastic though and his numbers aren't a result of piggybacking off Tage Thompson You're probably getting more goals and better defence, but the biggest gain is he's an adult and JJ is not.
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Kevyn Adams pre draft press conference and shenanigans festival
dudacek replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
I thought that was a practiced line that said “we might get stuck with these guys so I’m going to put this out there because I need to hedge my bets, but I am looking. -
Upside in their careers, or upside this season? Jordan Kyrou is a better hockey player right now than JJ Peterka. He’s not going to get better. JJ Peterka might. He’s not going to get worse. JJ Peterka might. His worst full seasons are 27 goals and 67 points. Peterka’s best full seasons are 28 goals and 68 points. And what about the next follow-up question: which of these two players have more downside?
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Seems smart. Now limit 18-year-olds to the first round.
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Kevyn Adams pre draft press conference and shenanigans festival
dudacek replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
Where was this reported? -
To me, Adams comments — the maybe get into it after the draft stuff — sounded like he knew a deal was coming.
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I think you might be confusing him with Eklund, his winger? Frondell is a 6’2” centre, Eklund is the small skilled guy with pace.