dudacek

I see In Benson, Quinn, Kulich, Helenius and Östlund, (outside chance Doan and Rosen) potential top six players, which is probably more than most teams. The issue is more about whether any of those guys can be legitimate first-liners, because I think they're going to need at least one to make that jump.

Granato had an openly stated development plan of teaching offence first defence second. I think with the offence in place, he made clear progress on improving the defence in his 3rd full year but took a modest step back overall in the process and was not given a chance to see his plan through. I think there were a lot of players firmly on board with Granato who struggled transitioning to Ruff (Cozens, Power, Quinn, Peterka, Samuelsson, Clifton). I’ve seen little to suggest that either coach is/was on the right track.

Personally disagree with his take on Benson, but he's been consistent on that and Benson's done nothing to prove him wrong. And overall I tend to agree with his big picture takeaway: quite a few likely NHLers, not many likely studs.

Wait, what? Is this the JFresh model predicting playoffs for the Sabres this year? Dammit man, give me context!

From Rachel Lenzi in the Buffalo News: As much as people say they’re ready for change, they’re also inherently resistant to it, or the possibility of being changed. That’s not a knock on the Sabres or their players, but something that has been studied on scientific, psychological and organizational levels. Ruff didn’t have a good chunk of time to implement his own philosophies under the proverbial and physical roofs of training camp in Buffalo. The Sabres began training camp Sept. 18, then traveled to Europe in a matter of days, to prepare to open the 2024-25 season against New Jersey in Prague. That’s a lot of logistics to juggle, from Ruff’s standpoint, from a player’s standpoint and from an organizational standpoint. Now, in NFL parlance, throw in a four-inch-thick playbook of entirely new concepts to learn, and there’s a lot to manage and absorb. I think the team looked poorly coached last year. How much of that was due to what Lenzi mentions: transition from Granato and lack of prep time? Will we see a more cohesive, together team this year as a result of those obstacles being removed?

Why is lower now than say 2021, when Eichel was sitting out for a trade and every other “good” veteran on the previous team was gone? The kids weren’t any better than the current group - Mittelstadt, Tage and Dahlin all looked like ***** the previous year, Power wasn’t coming - and the team’s record was almost as bad as the tank years. Personally that was my low point, Not arguing anything here - your low point is your own - just curious. The Sabres have literally had a dozen teams with worse records. Five of those came in the last decade and those five don’t include the tank.

Completely understand and I feel bad for you. Me — regardless of what my pragmatic brain knows to be true — I still get impatient for September training camp reports to start rolling in and the puck to drop on opening night. Rasmus Dahlin is worth my subscription: so ***** good. I'm excited to see if Kesselring plays with the same kind of wild stallion energy i saw in my limited Utah viewings. I'm curious if Doan has the selfless, grinding energy touted in his press clippings I wonder if Owen Power's balls dropped, or Mule's, and if either can consistently show the games they have given us glimpses of. Is Norris what we need? Can Byram take another step? Can Jack Quinn bounce back, because i loved that kid's game prior to last year. Can Zach Benson add production to what is truly a delightful style of game? Will this finally be the year Levi emerges? What does Kulich have in store for us? I like watching Alex Tuch play hockey Can Tage ride his Olympic dream to a 50-goal season? Lots of things I'm curious about, lots of of hopium available should I choose to inject it. I don't really care if that makes me a glutton for punishment. There's a pretty good chance they'll give me plenty of reason to be depressed and frustrated during the season. I'm going to take advantage of the preseason while I still can.

Zach Benson at 19 10/18/28 TOI: 14:40 SAT% 55.5 GF% 51.2 xGF% 53.7 JJ Peterka at 20 12/20/32 TOI: 13:39 SAT% 49.0 GF% 43.5 xGF% 48.5 Benson was demonstrably more ready for the NHL at 19 than Peterka was at 20

I keep coming back to basics on this: Zach Benson was in the NHL the past two seasons because he was good enough to be in the NHL the past two seasons. People keep focusing on the 30 points part of the equation (which is NHL-calibre) and ignoring the defensive part of the equation: that he is an absolute unicorn for a teenager in that aspect of the game. All the development cliches that people keep leaning into come from players who can't play defence and have games built around overpowering opponents with skill-based tactics that don't work at higher levels; they turn pucks over, get caught cheating and get frustrated when those tactics fail; their numbers drop and their ice time gets cut because their coaches can't trust them.. That's not Benson: he's playing because his coaches trust him. People are confused because what he's doing is extremely rare; most teenage prospects make the league due to their superior offence while they learn defence on the fly; with Benson, its his advanced defence earns him a spot in the NHL while he learns offence on the fly. But there is one obvious comparable: Ryan O'Reilly who had 26 points in 81 games at 18, 26 points in 74 at 19 and 55 in 81 games at 20

If i had to make a prediction I'd say 50. I think Peterka's departure and Zucker's likely regression will leave a hole that almost guarantees a jump for at least one of Kulich/Quinn/Benson and I think Bennie is the one most likely stapled to Thompson.

The list of players who played 40 games as an 18-year-old in the NHL this century is exactly 40 players deep. https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/stats/all-time-season?age=u19&from=2000-2001&sort=gp Show me this very, very long list of ruined players.

The beauty about this staring at a piece of paper is that you can comfortably say each player is a good, probably above average option in their slot.

That’s the Peterka deal and the debate about Benson replacing him in a nutshell isn’t it? I know people hate +/- but it shows Tuch +16 and McLeod +13 won their battles, Cozens -13 Quinn -18 did not while Tage -2 and Peterka -1 were a draw Switching to xGoals %, The Sabres had 4 lines that were “good” 2 of them had Tage and 3 had Benson. Maybe these are the forwards who create winning matchups and the ones who should be seeing the toughest ice time? Not sure exactly what you are envisioning here, but agree coaches and fans need to take a harder look at lines in terms of how they match up. I also think some of the moves they’ve made are based on Lindy wanting players who better fit what he wants to do.

I think Norris is smart enough and fast enough to take advantage of the holes Tage creates offensively and help the line in its own end. He reads the play at a high level. Hes just not a creative puck handler and a distributor in the Mittelstadt or Connolly mould. Thing is Tage doesn’t need that type of centre. He wants to be the guy on his line carrying the puck. He’s a bit of a unicorn in the way he creates offence for himself. There’s a reason JJ Peterka went from 22 assists to 41 last year. Jeff Skinner had never topped 30 assists in his career. Put him with Tage and he suddenly had 47. Norris can have a career high in assists without changing a thing about his game simply chipping pucks in Tages direction.

You don’t get it. Benson isn’t being forced to play a different way: this is how he plays, how he has always played. This is how he scored points as a junior and how he will score points in the NHL if and when his strength and his shot mature to an NHL level so he can finish what he started. You talk like there’s a JJ Peterka skill set in there that’s been stifled. That’s not his game and never was.

There is such a thing as a player not being talented enough to play with your most talented players. Never stopped Jochen Hecht from playing with Brière, or Mike Grier from playing with Drury. Or Evan Rodrigues from skating with the top guys in Florida. People shouldnt be basing their line choices entirely on offence. Line chemistry and matchup success is what matters. In theory I have no problem with Greenway playing with more talented players if he supplies what the line needs.

Norris is not a playmaker, full stop. Never has been. He has topped 20 assists in a season just once, including AHL and college. He has just 67 assists in 239 NHL games.

Is there anyone who has got a whiff of Benson playing tentative hockey? I feel like your criticisms are of a generic “young offensive star not lighting it up” variety, not real observations of the player, his game or his mindset

This is a good post. To clarify my take here: my premise is that NHL experience generally makes for better NHL players: most walk before they can run. Therefore, the 150ish games the actual Benson has played should make him better prepared for the coming season than a hypothetical Benson who played his last two years in junior.

There’s a far better chance Benson will have a breakout year this year than he would had he played junior last year, due to the amount of NHL learning he’s already absorbed.

Your system is a measure of 2-way play, not defensive play. It’s usual, but not inevitable that young players struggle with defensive play. Benson is proof of that. Look where Benson ranks at goals against, shot attempts against and xGoals against.

Actually, they all fit what i am saying: the first group all took a jump in that window, the second group is all in that window. I specifically spoke about taking a jump this year, I never said they would be good forever. And my conclusion was " I would be surprised if a few of them don't pop". Which you agreed with. I used points as convenient way of representing improvement, so I guess lack of clarity there is on me, so to clarify: there is well-established precedent for players improving in the window where a number of Sabre players sit. Saying why this proven trend doesn't or shouldn't apply to certain players is fair comment. But pairing your frequent insistence that the Sabres are too inexperienced with an argument against saying inexperienced players get better seems inconsistent at best.

There's a real doubt around here that — well, not exactly that the kids will never get better, but that they won't get better now. Peterka jumped from 50 points to 68 after 159 NHL games Dahlin from 23 to 53 (and -36 to -22) after 197 Dahlin from 53 to 73 (and -22 to +12) after 275 Cozens from 38 to 68 after 120 Thompson from 14 to 68 after 145 Thompson from 68 to 94 after 223 Mittelstadt from 19 to 59 after 187 McLeod from 30 to 53 after 219 The above isn't unusual for young players. Byram, Power, Kesselring, Mule, Quinn, Benson are all at that approximate window. I'd be surprised if a few of them don't pop this year. The only real argument I see against it is 'because Buffalo"

Mason McTavish's name is on the market because he plays like Dylan Cozens and wants to be paid like Dylan Cozens, and Pat Verbeek doesn't want to repeat the mistake that was Dylan Cozens. By most measures, Owen Power has had a better career to date than McTavish. They are the same age and the same draft. Ryan McLeod had the same amount of points as McTavish last year and is much better in his own zone. I like McTavish, but thinking he's the solution to the Sabres problems seems a bit "grass is greener" to me.

They did at times, but he was a winger in the playoffs and I believe more often during the season