nfreeman

This is a heckuva deal. Weber is one of the best players of the last generation and one of the best defensemen of all time. He's a first-ballot HOFer. He's great on both ends, very tough and a great leader. He's been in the NHL for 10 non-lockout seasons and played 78 or more games in 8 of them -- and scored 15 goals or more in all 8 (including 20 goals last year). PK has scored 15 goals exactly once in his 6 non-lockout seasons. Weber is about to turn 31, while PK just turned 27. PK is unquestionably a better skater than Weber at this point, and probably better carrying the puck. But don't sleep on Weber's playmaking skills -- in the last 7 non-lockout seasons, Weber had 30 assists or more in 6 of them (and had 27 assists the other time). Weber is also a true horse, playing over 25 min per game each of the last 6 years. For one playoff run, I'd rather have Weber. For the next 2 seasons, I'd rather have Weber. PK's NMC is going live in 2 days, and he's going to make $9MM per year for the next 6 years. If the Habs organization was concerned about PK's behavior/commitment/leadership/health/other -- it was now or never. I'm not ready to call this a bad move for the Habs. One other point: I think Weber's contract was signed before the current CBA. It includes $1MM annual salaries for each of the last 3 seasons -- when he will be turning 38, 39 and 40. If he retires at 39 -- I think Nashville gets hit with a cap penalty of some kind. Can anyone confirm?

And then, depression set in.

Until... Holy mackerel.

Well, there's those worth dropping pants for, and those that ain't. There is zero chance of this happening IMHO. Vanek is about as far as it gets from a GMTM kinda guy.

Beat me to it. I'd also include Niedermayer (and maybe Pronger, who was traded in an auction, not a UFA, but there are still similarities in the situations)

But how much do we really think can be saved this way? If Seth Jones is a comparable, then a bridge deal now for Risto would have the Sabres paying $5.4MM per year for maybe the first 2-3 years of Risto's UFA period, right? (Maybe a bit less than $5.4MM, but not substantially less -- $5.2MM per year is probably the floor.) There are only 16 defensemen in the NHL making $6MM per year or more, of whom only 7 make $7MM per year or more and only 4 make $7.5MM per year or more. Given that league-wide salary structure, how much would Risto realistically get after, say, a 3-year bridge deal? At that point, he'd still have a year to go before UFA, allowing the Sabres to have 3 more years of observing his development and a full year to sign him to an extension. How likely is it that Risto would command a salary that would put him into the top 5 in the NHL among defensemen (with PK, Weber, Suter and Byfuglien)? Isn't it more likely that he turns out to be more in the top-12-to-top-25 grouping? That would put him into a $5.5MM to $6.5MM salary range -- which is pretty close to what he'd get under a Seth Jones deal now. And if he does turn into a top-5, $7.5MM+ player -- that's a good problem to have. I vote for keeping our pants on, keeping our powder dry for Stamkos or other worthy player, and signing Risto to the contract he's earned when we have enough info to make a sober decision.

...or look like a bozo if he turns out like Roy, Stafford, Hodgson, Myers or any of a number of other young players whose GMs pulled the trigger too early on a fat long-term deal.

Beat me to it. Goals are much more precious than assists.

Thanks -- I had no idea what the apostrophe reference meant either. As for the bolded -- it's an interesting theory, but I think if GMTM likes Kulikov (and I think he does), he'll sign him to an extension well before the expansion draft.

I love the smell of victory in the morning!

I think everyone should remember that Vesey is an unproven commodity. It's quite likely that he'll have only a modest impact for the next couple of seasons. Stamkos, OTOH, is a major star who will have a significant impact immediately.

Perhaps, but I think everyone will agree that getting Stamkos AND winning a lot for an extended period will put the Sabres into "unquestionably elite and desirable franchise" territory.

I like Mirtle but I think he suffers from Canadian hockey writer nationalism syndrome. Also, is one of your references to Detroit meant to be TB? Otherwise Mirtle may have lost some sharpness.

Well, I'd say Kurri had the speed, although that's not quite the same as "explosiveness." He also had great hands, but you're probably right about the puck handling.

I disagree with #1 and #3, but you are right about #2. It's just not realistic to say "I'd only sign Stamkos to a 5-year deal or shorter." That means you wouldn't sign him.

Also: the Miami Herald writer I mentioned upthread also said that he thought the primary reason Florida traded Kulikov was that they didn't think they'd be able to sign him to an extension.

It sounds like BS to me.

I'm thinking Jari Kurri.

Great list hoss.

I assume you are referring to refunds (not returns)? And in particular perhaps you are asking whether state taxes are deductible from taxable income for federal income tax purposes? If so, the answer is yes, but the deduction (like most of them) phases out above a certain income level -- so while you're right that it reduces what would otherwise be the spread between NYS and FLA (as does the fact that the athletes pay taxes in the state for each road game), the difference is still substantial.

He's a fantastic player.

I agree with the bolded, but I think that there's a reasonable chance they keep him even after they sign Stammer. 2 main variables IMHO: 1 -- as you noted, how well he plays 2 -- how much the cap rises. I think there's a pretty good chance that Kane plays very well, in multiple areas, and is a tough MF, for the next 2 years -- and that as a result, GMTM and everyone here will want to keep him. I also think there's a so-so chance that the Canadian dollar will rise enough against the US dollar between now and the trade deadline in 2018 to push the cap high enough so that it will be a no-brainer. Expensive core forwards 3 years from now: ROR, Stammer, Eichel, Reino, Kane Rising youngsters, some of whom will have to be dealt: Nylander, Fasching, Vesey, Asplund Expensive core defensemen 3 years from now: Risto, XXX? Mid-priced core defensemen: Kulikov, McCabe The 10th-13th forwards and 5th-7th defensemen will be cheap, mostly young, and cycled through based on cost and production. That's a team I'm extremely psyched to see, btw.

Yes indeedly.

It's still way too soon to know about Risto.

Good call. On the first point -- I think there are plenty of reasons why he might prefer Buffalo (and certainly plenty in Toronto's favor as well). On the 2nd -- while Newport will certainly pursue its clients' interests, part of their skill set, and their client offering, is their access/relationships with GMs. They aren't going to jerk around GMTM and TP. Good post, although I think it's quite likely that they agree on an extension with Kane (I think I may be in the minority there though).