carpandean

Might as well throw out the usual suggestion: 3 points - regulation win 2 points - OT/SO win 1 point - OT/SO loss 0 points - regulation loss Every game is worth the same (3 points), but there is still some of the extra excitement from the OT/SO.

I've been meaning to develop a fan enjoyment score for NHL teams. There would be points for regular-season performance, post-season performance and draft position. Clearly, the largest points would be for winning the Cup, but there should ould be some value in the others, too. The main driver for this is that, deep down, I know that finishing 9th in the conference is the worst thing a team can do; at least, when looking at a single season. I might modify it for runs to reflect some of what LTS has seen (a run of bottom finishes without the corresponding improvement that you'd expect from the high draft picks.) However, finishing 14-16th for a few years, stocking up on better players, followed by a period of finishing near the top should feel far better than finishing in the middle the whole time, despite the same average on the LTS scale. I suspect that the Sabres would be much lower on my scale.

Fun watching the Vancouver Millionaires play. Funny that they set a franchise record for fastest goal to start a game (0:06) while wearing another team's uni.

Added some output from my simulator. Basically, gives the estimate chance of finishing in each spot for each team, the average points earned by each team, their chances of making the playoffs and the average points for the 8th place team. Again, for now, I'm assuming 50/50 (well, 40/10/10/40.) I want to test to see what affects the win probability. I'm thinking season PPG, last 10 PPG, home/away (though, that seems to be team specific, too) and a few other things. Then, I can change the way it determines the probabilities in the simulator.

See, the issue I have with this is that there doesn't have to be a (singular) "the problem". I feel just as vindicated as someone who believed/claimed that Lindy was (at this point, with this team) a problem, but not the only one. There was still in-game mismanagement, some of which has been corrected, and Lindy was actively involved with Darcy in putting this team together. I agree with you that they still need to: before this team can finally move in a new direction under Pegula.

Now, if we can only get the Panthers to put a few wins together ...

All of them ... plus one.

Columbus with a 4-game winning streak jumps out of the cellar.

With more #1 votes than the actual #1 finisher and second only to Zack Parise.

I would have thought that while he was in the AHL, NHL games would not count as toward the suspension. It seems to me that he should have to be in the NHL to be sitting out an NHL game. I mean, it's not like Ellis has been listed as a healthy scratch for each NHL game since he was sent down.

1) Will Cody Hodgson finish with over 17 1/2 goals? Y 2) Will Drew Stafford be a Buffalo Sabre on April 4th, 2013? Y 3) Will Ryan Miller have over 19 1/2 wins? N 4) Will the Sabres make the playoffs? N 5) Will Tyler Ennis have a fighting major this season? N 6) Will Ville Leino have over 5 1/2 goals? N 7) Will the Sabres finish with over 45 1/2 points in the standings? N 8) Will Mikhail Grigorenko have over 13 1/2 points? N 9) Will Jason Pominville be a Buffalo Sabre on April 4th, 2013? Y 10) Will Thomas Vanek have over 48 1/2 points? Y 11) Will Tyler Myers have over 12 1/2 points? N 12) Will Steve Ott have over 98 1/2 penalty minutes? N 13) Will the Sabres finish 12th or better in the Eastern Conference? N 14) Will Robyn Regehr have over 1 1/2 goals? N 15) Will Marcus Foligno have over 4 1/2 goals? Y 16) Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs? Y 17) Will the New York Rangers win the Atlantic Division? N 18) Will the Winnipeg Jets make the playoffs? N 19) Will the Chicago Blackhawks finish with over 76 1/2 points in the standings? Y 20) Will Rick Jeannerete announce his retirement before the end of the regular season? N Tiebreak: How many points will the Sabres finish with in the standings? 44

Oops, forgot one: Ray Emery - 10 wins to start a season (most by an NHL goalie ever!)

Right, they're building on two records: 24 games to start a season without a regulation loss 30 games in a row without a regulation loss

Aw, shucks. :blush: Probably about right. They averaged 47 in the simulation and, again, that's biased high if you believe that they have a less than 50% chance of winning any game.

Good to hear.

I added the Playoffs chart, but as usual, the difference in games played limits its usefulness. The Rangers and Devils will determine the 8th-place points through at least 23GP and likely through more (it would take the Rangers losing 3 in-a-row and the Jets winning 2 in-a-row for the Jets to affect 8th-place through 24GP; no other team can.) Through 20GP, the Sabres were still 7 points behind 8th-place. Through 21GP, they will be either 5 or 6 behind (depending on the Rangers' next game), and through 22GP, they will be 4 or 5 behind (depending on the Rangers' next 2 games.) The game against the Devils will be huge for distance from the playoffs, as they will likely be the 8th-best team through 22GP (unless the Rangers lose both of their next two.) On another note, I wrote my own Monte Carlo simulator to add onto my charts spreadsheet. I downloaded the schedule, including the date/time, home team and away team. It simulates only remaining games and adds the results to the current points. To keep it simple (for now), I used a 50/50 split with a 20% chance (overall) of an OT/SO game. I did a quick 60,000 seasons and noticed a few things: 1) I estimated a 12% chance of making the playoffs, which is just slightly above what SportClubStats 50/50 shows (10.3%). 2) The average 8th place finish was just under 53 points. 3) They had a 22.5% chance of finishing dead last (in EC) and a 0.029% chance of finishing first (and that's biased high by the 50/50 split.)

The only thing that I can hope is that he was just totally gassed from being out there QB'ing the PP for 1:21 when it happened. I mean, the Sabres do skate 200ft a lot, so it's possible. :unsure:

Aw man, I'm going to miss the ol' handle bar.

Put an "A" on him ... because he's an a**hole, but he's our a**hole!!

And a -12. (In fairness, 8 of his points were on the PP.)

Top 10 Subjects for Jokes 1. Genocide 2. Infectious disease 3. Suicide Didn't have to go far down the list either. :doh:

You should add a category for the ###### that Colorado would laugh at (though, there would definitely be overlap with "the ###### I would actually consider" category.)

Nothing scientific, but an 18 GP (per team) moving average of % games going to OT/SO from the past two seasons: Last year, it was a little flatter, but there was definitely still an upward trend at down the stretch. However, two years ago, there was a large season-long trend. As such, I would suspect that the % going to OT/SO will rise over the remainder of the season.

Very true. I agree that TBP that goaltenders should be excluded, and would actually just (at least initially) focus on forwards. Ideally, the scoring system would include advanced analytics and would also adjust for injuries. However, I would surmise that any reasonable scoring system would net much of the benefit from expanding the current binary criteria.